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Bunds Crater Most This Century

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It appears Draghi's comments are not what the market wanted to hear.Bunds have crashed over 30bps in the last 2 days... the biggest 2-day spike since Oct 1998...

Carnage...

 

 

Biggest 2-day spike since 1998!

 

 

xYesterday, we noted...

Today it appears not.

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 06/03/2015 - 09:46 | 6158816 22winmag
22winmag's picture

The South was right!

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:12 | 6158890 doctor10
doctor10's picture

Gerxit preceding Grexit!!!

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:16 | 6158905 nink
nink's picture

Bonds are down and stocks are back up.    We switch back next tuesday.   Didn't you get the memo.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:41 | 6159007 Salah
Salah's picture

Exacto-bundo, Ballin

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:44 | 6159014 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Too bad it was "well timed but poorly executed" and he lost money on his own winning trade.

That toothless old dog don't hunt no more.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:53 | 6159041 Captain Debtcrash
Captain Debtcrash's picture

The sovereign bond bubble is the bubble to end all bubbles, in the same way WW1 was the war to end all wars, in that there will likely be another one in 30 years. That said the question is what will replace them as the preferred safe haven asset.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 11:53 | 6159260 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Yeah, sovereign bonds are the leading edge of the herd of morons, but with things like derivatives following close behind, this time will be extra nasty.......

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:12 | 6158893 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Since Before LehmanTM

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 11:55 | 6159274 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

I gotta quit reading history since I know Lehman wasn't really that bad.......

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 09:47 | 6158820 Condor96
Wed, 06/03/2015 - 09:47 | 6158823 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

We  had to uncarry trade some folks

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 09:59 | 6158856 bustdrs
bustdrs's picture

Awesome, lets get this show started. are we to sit back with popcorn today?? I'm ready!

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 09:47 | 6158824 madbraz
madbraz's picture

this is what happens when central banks works for hedge funds.  

 

fundamentally, there is no reason for this move. 

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:02 | 6158867 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

You mean, apart from German 10-yr yielding a ridiculous 0.05, and eventually had to do mean reversal?

Or does "mean reversal" in our new Keynesian overlord economy mean "lower prices everyday"? Does Wal-Mart run the Fed?

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:12 | 6158897 madbraz
madbraz's picture

go buy stocks then.

 

10 years from now, that bund at 0.05% would have been a much better investment (and a much more enjoyable ride) than the negative returns stocks will generate (with a 50%+ plunge in between).

 

this notion that people are entitled an annual return (or a hefty interest coupon) in times of no growth and actual contraction is just not based in reality.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:23 | 6158930 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

entitled? it's called a default premium. why do new-age keynesians think they have eradicated risk? if anything, THAT is just not based on reality.

 

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:54 | 6159044 joseJimenez
joseJimenez's picture

No, the don't want eradicate risk.  Just reality.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:39 | 6159001 Ballin D
Ballin D's picture

Because there are only two asset classes, right?  

Returns have nothing to do with entitlement. fundamentally, supply and demand were artificially skewed to push FI returns below market prices. shit doesnt stay out of balance forever.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 09:49 | 6158830 heisenberg991
heisenberg991's picture

She got Bunds of Steel.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 09:50 | 6158834 Benedict Farse
Benedict Farse's picture

Cratering like Bruce Jenner's vagina.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:20 | 6158913 FrankDieter
FrankDieter's picture

It's Kaitlyn, and shes got a dick and matching balls.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 11:23 | 6159118 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Didn't you get the Memo?  It's a Mangina (c). Aka Trangina (c).

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 09:51 | 6158837 r101958
r101958's picture

Like I said yesterday, when the Bund hits 4 to 5%, where it historically should be, then I will be shocked. But I hardly call this 'spiking'.

 

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 09:57 | 6158855 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Putting aside the idea of where they should be - you don't think a move from 0.15 on April 13 (less than two months ago!) to today's number is volatile? You don't think any fantastically-levered people are on the wrong side of this?

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 09:54 | 6158845 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Positive interest rates?  Inconceivable!

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 09:55 | 6158847 Madcow
Madcow's picture

Bonds are crashing not becuase of fears of "inflation" but due to the arriving tsunami of defauts, bankruptcies, contract abrogation, debt repudiation, etc - 

Give the lawyers 10 years to sort all this out and then we can get back to "growth" 

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 09:55 | 6158848 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Draghi has created a buying oppurtunity for Greece's $400m euros.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 09:59 | 6158858 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Volatility is what makes money for the traders. If this shit was same every day, day in and out, then there would be no bets on the table. The thing that is important is that stability in markets is the producer's friend as it allows them to make decisions in planning and running their business. It is the instablility that feeds the gamblers and as such they will keep this madness going forever if possible. Two competing interests, one productive and one destructive. I know who I'm rooting for.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:01 | 6158862 Government need...
Government needs you to pay taxes's picture

Long Greek sovereigns, short German bunds.  Who's with me?!?

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:03 | 6158868 Hazlitt
Hazlitt's picture

Somewhere, in some distant lands owned by Janus Capital, Bill Gross is laughing his ass off.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:25 | 6158944 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Yeah, unless it was "well timed but poorly executed" like before.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:43 | 6159009 LukeCV
LukeCV's picture

He is the bond king even if he is not executing like in the old days.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:53 | 6159040 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

If I know how to use the bathroom but I keep accidentally wetting my pants, can I still say I am in control of my faculties?

That's Bill Gross.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 11:12 | 6159095 zz2ipper
zz2ipper's picture

I'd take the whole "well timed, poorly executed" herring with a bag of salt. If a big ego like that screwed up he'd keep quiet. 

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:06 | 6158875 The Axe
The Axe's picture

I traded a BOOK of Vancouver Mining Stocks that was less vol

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:13 | 6158887 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

If Greece leaves the EU or the Japanese bond market collapses, the confidence game being played by Central Banksters is over.

There will be a worldwide rout in bonds as everyone will see that the emperor is naked.  There is no way most Western countries do not default on their gigantic debts.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:15 | 6158901 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

In the case of Japan, you're right (but it won't happen since the BOJ puts an endless bid under JGBs).

In the case of Greece, I doubt it.  Greece is a side show, no matter what the outcome.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:19 | 6158911 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Trust me...no one wants to see a naked emperor.

Besides, its a world sustained by delusion. Why would anyone want to fuck with a winning formula?

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:17 | 6158908 BrokusDickusMaximus
BrokusDickusMaximus's picture

I'm not an economist or trader by any means but, .3%. If that is cratering, what will they call it when the UST's goes up a whole 1% or so? We didn't recalculate the CG (center of gravity) of an aircraft for less than 3 tenths of a percent weight change. Instead of cratering could use " to the moon Alice, to the fucking MOON." I did meet Jackie Gleason as a kid. My dad fixed his air conditioner on a weekend special job. I went with him and got a golf ball. He cussed like a pirate. Maybe it was his A/C being broken. It was hot in south Florida. 

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:20 | 6158915 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Everybody is selling something....even Tyler Durden.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:19 | 6158912 Thisisbullishright
Thisisbullishright's picture

A measly 450% move in just two months???

We can do better than that people!

 

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:24 | 6158933 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Buba going to have to book some losses on those bonds.....  Watch for the snap back on the US 10 and the dollar, this one will be EPIC.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:26 | 6158946 praps
praps's picture

The tsunami is forming.  Money is now being sucked out of the bond market into an enormous equity wave that will shortly crash onto the shore.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:31 | 6158961 DowTheorist
DowTheorist's picture

German Bunds are cratering and US bonds going under since they are flashing today a primary bear market signal, as explained below. This implies that the odds favor the end of the lastest bull run. Furthermore, the EUR and CHF are in a primary bull market, which further spells doom to US debt. Keep an eye on the evolution of US debt:

 

http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/06/dow-theory-special-issue-us-b...

 

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:38 | 6158994 Counterpunch
Counterpunch's picture

Aw, it'll get better all over when the US sends the Army into Syria ti fight assad because he and isis threaten poor helpless israel, which will have to attack lebanon again to defend itself... this month maybe?

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:49 | 6159029 Pareto
Pareto's picture

But bad news is good news - so says the $INDU, $COMPQ, $SPX and just about every other index....

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 11:01 | 6159065 vernwvu
vernwvu's picture

Sorry, what is a Bund?  Is that German bonds?

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 11:23 | 6159132 Superdave532
Superdave532's picture

Yessir 

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 11:16 | 6159102 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Bunds are the things that Krugman knawed off his Bernanke.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 11:30 | 6159171 youngman
youngman's picture

Treasuries all over the world are crashing....but gold and silver down too...seems odd....should there not be a run to safety now too...

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 11:49 | 6159239 Fed-up with bei...
Fed-up with being Sick and Tired's picture

Gold, purely and simply, is being Manipulated by paper trading.   That should be ignored and solid gold should be accumulated over a long period of time.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 12:36 | 6159419 fremannx
fremannx's picture

In a deflationary environment everything crashes. There are no safe havens. Almost no one understands that phenomenon. Ironically, the dollar will rise because most global debt is denominated in dollars so, until enough debt has been destroyed either by paying it down or defaulting, there will be a demand for dollars to pay it off. 

USD

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/u-s-dollar-indexelliott-wave-update-f...

Gold

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/gold-elliott-wave-update-for-week-end...

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 13:53 | 6159853 Livermore Legend
Livermore Legend's picture

".....There are No Safe Havens. Almost no one understands that phenomenon....."

Indeed....

Except in US Bills. 

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 12:30 | 6159401 fremannx
fremannx's picture

Rising bond yields are no surprise to anyone who understands how deflationary forces work...

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/10-year-u-s-treasury-index-yieldellio...

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