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Markets Enter The Twilight Zone With Double Seasonally Adjusted Numbers

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Click For Original Post - Markets Enter The Twilight Zone With Double Seasonally Adjusted Numbers

Written by Nathan McDonald

 

As it is now common knowledge to anyone who does even a shred of self-research (i.e. those in the precious metals community), the FED and the US government at large actively and retroactively engage in what we now call MOPE, Management of Perspective Economics, which to my best knowledge was coined by Mr. Gold himself, Jim Sinclair.

 

The FED, via the mainstream, or better known now as the lamestream media, continuously fudges reality and changes the facts to fit their mantra and beliefs. The hope is that through this manipulation of the facts, they will create a self-fulfilling prophecy that will gain a life of its own, thus becoming reality.

zxcv87

Typically, one method of MOPE that the government and the FED love to engage in is seasonally adjusting economic figures, which means that they look at the real numbers and simply re-jig them until they better fit their “models”.

 

Although it is not uncommon to see these figures seasonally adjusted it is also unheard of to see the figures being seasonally adjust twice. That’s right, The US Department of Commerce has officially gone over the deep-end and seasonally adjusted the figures not once, but twice for one season.

 

Essentially, as previously alluded to, this is simply a sad attempt to take out all the bad economic numbers and figures and make things look much rosier than they actually are. Does this mean that the economic numbers are now correct? Of course not.

 

The adjustments are so severe that Q1 GDP, which was originally seeing a -1% print, will be double seasonally adjusted to +1.8%! A 2.8% increase!

 

The reasoning for this unprecedented act of manipulation is clear. The FED is attempting to make the market look better than it actually is, this in a desperate effort to keep the world thinking that economic recovery is alive and well.

 

If this is the case, then Janet Yellen and her peers that want to see a rate hike in September will get what they are wishing for. After all, it’s hard to justify a rate hike in the face of collapsing GDP numbers and a renewed recession, which if the original numbers are to be believed, then that’s exactly what the US economy is facing.

 

The question is, what happens next? Will the FED be able to continue to manipulate the figures moving forward? Will they get the rate hike they are hoping for in Septemeber? Or will the economy continue to slow down and the FED be forced to change their mind?


Common sense tells you that a rate hike should be held off, unless the FED plans on completely crashing the economy, even though that is what is needed. Yet, if I’ve learned anything in all my years of following the FED, it’s that common sense is in short supply.

 

Click For Original Post - Markets Enter The Twilight Zone With Double Seasonally Adjusted Numbers

Written by Nathan McDonald

 

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Wed, 06/03/2015 - 14:15 | 6159975 Lone_Star
Lone_Star's picture

While the U.S. Dept. of Commerce is double seasonally adjusting the numbers to make this failing economy look like something it isn't, I don't think the Fed is the one pulling the strings. There is only one person who has anything to gain from a fake recovery, just like gaining from cities burning down.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 12:20 | 6159369 iamtheeggman wh...
iamtheeggman whooooooooooooo's picture

Anything worth doing is worth overdoing!

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 12:24 | 6159383 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

"Common sense tells you that a rate hike should be held off, unless the FED plans on completely crashing the economy, even though that is what is needed"

I'm sorry, but I can't share this article...

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 12:07 | 6159325 Sach Mahoney
Sach Mahoney's picture

Equities can't go down.  The markets are protected from going down.  It's programmed into the algo's.  The regulators are afraid of it. The central banks want it.  You need to be long.  It's going up forever.  

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 11:19 | 6159114 NeedtoSecede
NeedtoSecede's picture

Cankles 2016! and Hilsenrat for Minister of Propoganda (he is doing such a fine job as a mouthpeice for the Fed, just make him the shill for all of .gov).  It will all be better then...

 

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:36 | 6158984 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

It's interesting to note that not only are figures fudged everywhere- but that the rule of law has been suspended for the banking elite. Coincidence? I think not. This is the darkest period ever in the US- I keep hoping it gets better only to see it get worse.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 09:50 | 6158832 Fun Facts
Fun Facts's picture

There's always room for triple seasonally adjusted numbers.

Only absolute brain dead morons and wall street shills still believe US government data to be even remotely accurate.

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 12:10 | 6159104 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

I remember back to the course I took in statistical analysis and they are basically doing everything my professor told us to watch out for. It's damned hard to watch for icebergs when the lookout is forced to wear a magic box over his eyes....

Wed, 06/03/2015 - 10:12 | 6158896 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1owcncKCHg

Step 1:  Draw the chart you want.

Step 2:  Party-on.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!