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Forget "Game Theory" - Yanis Varoufakis Introduces "Hope Theory"
Authored by Yanis Varoufakis, originally posted at Project Syndicate,
On September 6, 1946 US Secretary of State James F. Byrnes traveled to Stuttgart to deliver his historic “Speech of Hope.” Byrnes’ address marked America’s post-war change of heart vis-à-vis Germany and gave a fallen nation a chance to imagine recovery, growth, and a return to normalcy. Seven decades later, it is my country, Greece, that needs such a chance.
Until Byrnes’ “Speech of Hope,” the Allies were committed to converting “…Germany into a country primarily agricultural and pastoral in character.” That was the express intention of the Morgenthau Plan, devised by US Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau Jr. and co-signed by the United States and Britain two years earlier, in September 1944.
Indeed, when the US, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom signed the Potsdam Agreement in August 1945, they agreed on the “reduction or destruction of all civilian heavy-industry with war potential” and on “restructuring the German economy toward agriculture and light industry.” By 1946, the Allies had reduced Germany’s steel output to 75% of its pre-war level. Car production plummeted to around 10% of pre-war output. By the end of the decade, 706 industrial plants were destroyed.
Byrnes’ speech signaled to the German people a reversal of that punitive de-industrialization drive. Of course, Germany owes its post-war recovery and wealth to its people and their hard work, innovation, and devotion to a united, democratic Europe. But Germans could not have staged their magnificent post-war renaissance without the support signified by the “Speech of Hope.”
Prior to Byrnes’ speech, and for a while afterwards, America’s allies were not keen to restore hope to the defeated Germans. But once President Harry Truman’s administration decided to rehabilitate Germany, there was no turning back. Its rebirth was underway, facilitated by the Marshall Plan, the US-sponsored 1953 debt write-down, and by the infusion of migrant labor from Italy, Yugoslavia, and Greece.
Europe could not have united in peace and democracy without that sea change. Someone had to put aside moralistic objections and look dispassionately at a country locked in a set of circumstances that would only reproduce discord and fragmentation across the continent. The US, having emerged from the war as the only creditor country, did precisely that.
Today, it is my country that is locked in such circumstances and in need of hope. Moralistic objections to helping Greece abound, denying its people a shot at achieving their own renaissance. Greater austerity is being demanded from an economy that is on its knees, owing to the heftiest dose of austerity any country has ever had to endure in peacetime. No offer of debt relief. No plan for boosting investment. And certainly, as of yet, no “Speech of Hope” for this fallen people.
It is the mark of ancient societies, like those of Germany and of Greece, that contemporary tribulations revive old fears and foment new discord. So we must be careful. Teenagers should never be told that, due to some “prodigal sin,” they deserve to be educated in cash-strapped schools and weighed down by mass unemployment, whether the scene is Germany in the late 1940s or Greece today.
As I write these lines, the Greek government is presenting the European Union with a set of proposals for deep reforms, debt management, and an investment plan to kick-start the economy. Greece is indeed ready and willing to enter into a compact with Europe that will eliminate the deformities that caused it to be the first domino to fall in 2010.
But, if Greece is to implement these reforms successfully, its citizens need a missing ingredient: Hope. A “Speech of Hope” for Greece would make all the difference now – not only for us, but also for our creditors, as our renaissance would terminate the default risk.
What should such a declaration include? Just as Byrnes’ address was short on detail but long on symbolism, a “Speech of Hope” for Greece does not have to be technical. It should simply mark a sea change, a break with the past five years of adding new loans on top of already unsustainable debt, conditional on further doses of punitive austerity.
Who should deliver it? In my mind, the speaker should be German Chancellor Angela Merkel, addressing an audience in Athens or Thessaloniki or any Greek city of her choice. She could use the opportunity to hint at a new approach to European integration, one that starts in the country that has suffered the most, a victim both of the eurozone’s faulty monetary design and of its society’s own failings.
Hope was a force for good in post-war Europe, and it can be a force for positive transformation now. A speech by Germany’s leader in a Greek city could go a long way toward delivering it.
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For the people of Greece..you cant eat Hope....sorry
Sanity compared to Haiku Ambassadorships and Flying Central Bankers.
Maybe there is hope.
OK, back to work, serfs. The Crazy Train needs to move Forward!
Thank you Mr. V for illustrating to the world that the allies in WWII were monsters as well.
how bout..."hope ya gotz some gold"........cuz those is alls ya gonna get when the dust settles. My guess is they already got your gold V
Wow, it looks like broken record Wolferl hasn't gotten to this post yet!
Nope, nvm he downvoted me.
V. is missing the boat entirely here. Germany has always been an industrial nation, Greece has agriculture. There's nothing to rebuild there in Greece. The Greeks can watch their goats jump each other and wait for the olives to ripen. Sure, there's the port and the potential pipeline which will likely be built by non-Greeks.
His vantage point is completely off. Good to see you back, Haus.
Edit: I'm actually deeply offended by this analogy. Germany was in absolute ruins. Stripped bare of its assets. The IP was stolen. The Soviets dismantled entire factories. Men and women were starving.
My grandparents and parents PULLED UP THEIR SOCKS and REBUILT. They cried, they starved but they buckled down and they USED THEIR OWN TWO HANDS (for lack of tools) to BUILD THE COUNTRY BACK.
Then foreign labor came from countries like Greece to see the Economic Wunder and Germany needed their help. Mostly Turks, Italians and Greeks setup shop in Germany and established themselves and their family. It was a cultural benefit to Germany as well.
So Dr. Varoufakis, what you are suggesting does not make sense one bit. The war was then, the rebuilding happened after the war. It was a completely different time. The "Allies" delivered the death blow to Germany because they couldn't finish her off after WW1. Their post WW1 solution of capitulation and reparations had failed. They couldn't suck anymore blood from the stone.
2nd time they made sure Germany wouldn't come back. Absolute capitulation documents had to be signed. Death to the German economy and German innovation by decree of Mr. Morgenthau.
But we came back from the dead and believe you me, Dr. Varoufakis - A SPEECH OF HOPE had little to do with it!
Amen. This all day long.
We just need another 10-15 million westerners in Germany to supplement population with a population similar to "ours" and Germany will be a major world power for the next generation or two to come.
Come on Frau Merkel, open the German doors to educated peoples the world over. You'll be blown away.
Point system in Germany like Australia and Germany will be engaged in an economic cold war with china after the ussa goes tits up.
Don't be offended.
Your gradparents were the most murderous gereration of the most murderous nation in human history.
Say all you like about pulling up your socks. I'd rather be the world's lazy bum than the only nation in the world with a genocidal reflex
hmmm....the commie runs deep with this guy.
Hope is the belief that the light at the end of the tunnel can bring salvation. In the case of Greece, that light is an oncoming train named "Debt" and its cargo is destruction and servitude.
http://z822j1x8tde3wuovlgo7ue15.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploa...
The brakes on this one blew back in '08, but we keep shoveling coal while the conductor is laughing maniacally.
Choo Choo Motherfuckers!
I really hope this is the last speech of this kind that I hear in my lifetime. But I know differently.
Disconnected from reality, hope is always based on something tangible. It cannot stand alone.
Hopium.
we hoped some folks
And the next stage is "The Dope Theory."
Yeah, I mean, "Hope and Change" did wonders for the U.S. over the past several years, so I'm on board.
That speech and a middle finger is all yer gonna get from the troika, Yanis. Geez, for a guy who studied game theory, don't you know the primary lesson from that exercise is that deceit, betrayal, and treachery are the winning moves?!
Oh ye of little faith.
Hope don't pay the IMF.
Isn't that the whole point of the speech? That hope's all they're gonna get and Greece is running short of that as well.
The only difference between Greece and US is the size of our military and how it can be used to enforce a fraudulent currency. The people are fooled here as much as there and eventually the price will be paid. Our countries founding documents simply make no sense together with what we are told our country is. And thus the con game runs on and on. http://www.thetruthaboutthelaw.com/they-tell-big-lies-about-our-supposed...
http://www.greekmythology.com/Other_Gods/Minor_Gods/Elpis/elpis.html
Nothing like a good speech to cure the ills.
Hope is insanity not a rational option. It would seem that instanity is the new abnormal. Interesting to watch the desperation play itself out.
I think the problem is that they don't want to do the things you want them to say in the speech.
Greece is just the Guinea Pig, unfortunately. The real subject is you, O' Humanity.
There are ten people and resources to feed only nine. What happens to the tenth and why? O’ Humanity, Why are you running and for what?
For full context, please visit my blog http://just-a-thought-from-thinair.blogspot.com/
Read all the posts.
Thanks zerohedge for all the good work you do!
Open Challenge to anyone in the entire world. How do you solve this problem?
Everyone claims to be solving the same problem... but last time I checked no one really is.
German must learn to dance:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6K7OC-IKnA
hehe.
German must learn to dance:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6K7OC-IKnA
hehe.
Can we just quit with this misuse of "austerity"?
It's just plain old balancing of budgets ffs.
EU is a NOT A DEMOCRACY but a SIONIST BANKING OLIGARCHY and PLUTOCRACY, EU is destroying our Nations and the people. Best thing to do is to QUIT EU AND EURO AND NATO.
GREECE should go out EURO and EU to save her !!
More proof the elected opposition are controlled. The only way greece will ever get out of this will be open revolt and decapitation of the political traitors in office. Why do the greeks tolerate this crap when the bric countries offer greece recurring revenue simply by being greece? Greece is a geostrategic location, and russia offers billions for use of its land for energy pipelines. Instead, the greeks must tolerate traitors in office that require a bruce jenner sex change in order to appease the psychopathic eu. When all is said and done, the greeks will no longer be greeks but will be referred to as "caitlyns".
V sounds like an honest guy.
That's his problem. He is stuck in sea of cold blooded sharks.
I knew a criminal attorney once. A wounded Vietnam vet who says he never lost a case. He said he was the meanest shark and was also an alcoholic.
In this world, honest, 'nice' people are generally ignored, made fun of and shunned.
Sad...
Mr. Obama's speech writer has been VERY busy indeed.
Trying to liken apples to rotting olives here Mr. Veruka.
You already HAD all of the cheap money, many gov cronies retired @ 53 (many non-govs too) and the bill came due. Suck it up and hope that the peoplr don't chop your head off, bc you're just another effing POL, the very nature of which is that you're a parasite on the body politic (and public) and NOONE except your brainwashed muppets (who think they can get a pension @ 53 off DEBT) believes that you have any credibility (or credit) left.
It's not the hard working Greek worker outside of this corrupt gravy train that's to blame - other than investing the slightest HOPE that you might CON the CONNERS any further.
Game over you commi fuckwad.
His speech is offensive. Shows lack of perspective. Does he really believe a mere "Speech of Hope" to the Germans was responsible for Germans to rediscover their hard work ethic? As if!
Nobody in Germany rested on their laurels during these dark times after the war had ended and Germany had lost, had to sign a complete capitulation. Germany was the laughing stock of the world or worse, it was patronized at every opportunity.
To this date, Germans are constantly reminded of war crimes. Greeks demanding reparations as leverage in current debt negotiations.
The debt is probably odious anyway. The bailouts should have never happened 4 years ago. Greece cannot shoulder 300+ billion in debt to mostly foreign banks. We all know that the money to create the debt wasn't generated anywhere. These are numbers and entries on a balance sheet somewhere, nothing more.
The financial house of cards needs to blow up. If not over this then over something else. Sound financing and sound accounting practises have to come back.
World finances and global banking today are WORSE THAN ENRON! Nevermind Lehman.
Does anyone ever bring up the fact that the new Greek government still wants to protect a 55 year old retirement age a ridiculous pension structure, all while not having a effect tax collection process?
Yeah, he takes a lot of liberties comparing the Germans to the Greeks.
The difference is night and day. Germany was safe investment, so safe that the countries involved were most concerned that it would grow big and powerful. They hobbled it, split it in half, etc. and it still rose back to the top of the pile. Germany has low realtive taxes, streamlined everything, high retirement agent, minimal free handouts, highly capable population, high wages, etc etc.
Greece not so much.
I know of no debt collector that would accept this diatribe on a collections call. Fuck you, pay me would be the response.
Greece, the people and government, have needed structural changes for decades on decades.
I despise the banking cartels as much as anyone, but in order for banking cartels to rape and pillage there needs to be corrupt politicans and corrupt citizens who all play along. When the banking cartels complete the raping, everyone on the receiving end starts screaming.
The motivated Greeks have left. I meet these Greeks, along with the Portuguese/Spanish/Italians, everyday in North Europe. This is a similar situation to the droves of Irish, Italians, and Greeks who flooded the US shores in the late 1800s/early 1900s. The USA comitted a massive brain drain of Europe for their most motivated and left the rest. Northern/Western Europe is doing the same thing now... It is quite interesting to watch it all play out. Please note that Mr Varoufakis himself hauled ass and went to the USA.
"the Greek government is presenting...proposals...to kick-start the economy"
The best proposal from any government would be to fuck right off.
Hope is a concept and commodity belonging to the Church, i.e. Faith, Hope and Love. The State on the other hand deals with the Power of the Sword, i.e. prosecuting lawbreakers.
There needs to be a re-establishment of the separation between State and Church. Individuals in the government attempting to take over the Church's role need to be excused from service and sent packing.
imo.
If Greeks (or for that matter Americans) were to get any real hope that things are going to get "better" I suggest:
1. Stop fucking around with the false flags and hiding the sausage and start arrestting banksters!
2 In Greeces case, arrest previous government officials involved and put out arrest warrants for Goldman Sachs flunkies.
I would bet these actions alone would convince the IMF/EU that greece is serious, although I doubt that anything will happen including fixing it's corrupt and broken system.
Yanis Varoufakis has a very interesting view of how the current global economic problems developed and why they continue to get worse instead of better. In this video interview he explains, in metaphorical terms, how the United States has played the major role in collapsing the global economies and why Europe’s economies, through their own mismanagement, have little hope of surviving another looming financial crisis. He calls the U.S. 'The Global Minotaur'...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/the-global-minotaur-a-global-finance-...
How can one make this comparisn? Merkel is not interested in a united Europe. Merkel just wants to be Chancellor. Without a parliament.
Without the alternativlos verdict of the FDJ slut, which has impoverished 1000s of Greeks and enriched the banksters a little more, Gr would be back on the Drachma and recovery! If Europeans cant rid themselves of this new parasitic class of politicians and buruaucrats, it will be back to serfdom, under an islamic ruler.
And? Whose fault is it Mr. V? Besides, word "hope" is already reserved and copyrighted by another fool like you.