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Greece: Out Of Cash, Out Of Time, Out Of Options
Authored by Andrew Lilico - Chairman of Europe Economics (@Andrew_Lilico), excerpted from CapX.xom,
On Friday Greece is due to pay at least a quarter of the €1.5bn due to the IMF in June.
...
The creditors say they will only disburse the money if the Greek government enacts various key economic reforms and does not roll back reforms the last government agreed with the lenders and if the Greek government undertakes to run large enough budget surpluses every year in the future that Greece might have a chance of paying back the money the creditors have lent it.
The Greek government says there is no possibility of it ever paying back all the money it has been lent and the creditors need to accept that, write off some of the debt, and not insist that Greece runs large surpluses (predicated on the fantasy of paying back the debt) or cuts back on pensions or enacts other similar measures that run contrary to the Greek voters’ will (as expressed in the last election).
Most commentary still appears predicated on the idea that there will be some last-minute deal - either because the creditors will back down and give Greece some more money without requiring it to be paid back or because the Greek government will back down if it understands that not doing so would ultimately mean leaving the euro.
I, on the other hand, don’t believe either side is particularly interested in achieving a deal.
The Eurozone does not want to make any compromise with the current Greek government because:
(a) they don’t believe they need to because Greek threats to leave the euro are empty both because internal polling suggests Greeks don’t want to leave and because if they did leave that doesn’t really constitute any threat to the euro;
(b) because they (particularly perhaps Angela Merkel) believe that under enough pressure the Greek government might collapse and be replaced by a more cooperative government, as has happened repeatedly before in the Eurozone crisis including in Italy and Greece itself; and
(c) because any deal with Greece that is seen to involve or be presentable as any victory for the Greek government would threaten the political positions of governments in several Eurozone states including Spain, Portugal, Italy, Finland and perhaps even the Netherlands and Germany.
Furthermore, it’s not clear to me that the Eurozone creditors at this stage would have much interest in any deal based upon promises, regardless of how much the Greek had verbally surrendered. Things have gone too far now for mere words to work. They would need to see the Greeks deliver actions — tangible economic reforms and tangible, credible primary surplus targets and a sustainable change in the long-term political mood within Greece that meant other Eurozone states might eventually get their money back. That is almost certainly not doable at all with the current Greek government. The only deal possible would be with some replacement Greek government that had come in precisely on the basis that it did want to do a deal and did want to pay the creditors back.
On the Syriza side, I see no more appetite for a deal. They believe that austerity has been ruinous for the lives of Greeks and that decades more austerity would mean decades more Greek economic misery. From their point of view, default or even exit from the euro, even if economically painful in the short term, would be better than continuing with austerity now. The only kind of deal they could countenance would be one in which creditors accepted that austerity must end and much of the monies lent are never coming back.
Even though neither side thinks a deal is possible with the other, they keep talking and keep telling the world a deal is close because:
(a) some on the Eurozone side continue to hope that under enough pressure the Greek government might collapse or make some bad political mistake that leads to its downfall;
(b) the Eurozone does not want to eject the Greeks – it wants them to choose to leave, instead, if indeed they do leave in the end;
(c) the Greek government wants to be thrown out or, if it chooses to leave in the end, to be able to say credibly to the Greek people (who continue to be in favour of euro membership — though that is no longer true of the majority of Syriza voters, 58 per cent of whom now say in opinion polls that euro exit would be preferable to more austerity) that it tried everything and euro exit was a final resort.
The past 24 hours have seen an alleged “Take-it-or-leave-it” proposal from the Eurozone, which reports indicate appears to involve no debt relief at all, no material change in the demands for economic reforms, and primary surpluses of 1% in 2015, 2% in 2016, 3% in 2017, and 3.5% thereafter. Since the Greek economy has deteriorated further through 2015 with the political turmoil, a 1% target might be difficult to meet and at this stage is no kind of “compromise”, whilst the 3.5% longer-term target continues to reflect the narrative of placing the Greeks in a position to repay their debts, which the Greek government refuses to accept. It is hard to see how Syriza could accept that without collapsing. If it really is “take-it-or-leave-it” then if Syriza wants to contemplate it at all that might mean a referendum – which would presumably lead to a rejection. I suspect they will simply start the defaulting on Friday by not paying the IMF.
On the other side, the Greek made their own counter-proposals. The German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble — who publicly said some time ago that no-one had any idea how a deal could be reached — said public statements of optimism were not justified and that his impression of the Greek proposals was that talk won’t be over soon.
And yet, even if all the current excitement about an imminent deal, within hours or a few days, were justified, what would it really mean? They are still only debating the conditions for the disbursement of the final €7.2bn from the previous Greek bailouts! Even if they agree to that, which would cover the €6.5bn or so that Greece needs to get through June, that would still leave Greece with no way to pay its large debts to the ECB and others that are due in July and August. To get through the summer, there would need to be another whole bailout agreement, covering around €30-50bn more given to Greece and including a whole additional set of economic reforms and surplus targets! Which Eurozone Parliament is going to vote for that?
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Well it's been an hour and I still can't sleep. If I take anymore sleeping pills my heart will probably stop. Thing about me is when the insomnia strikes, it strikes hard. I could be up for the next three or four days. Going that long without sleeping does some seriously bad shit to my brain. I'm talking paranoia, hallucinations, basically a bad acid trip while sober. It's been a few years since this has happened. Fuck I'm rambling and talking to myself and I couldn't give two canary shits. While I'm at it I might as well open a rift in time and space and let all the aliens through so they can have seven billion assholes to play with. Yeah, that would make me a bad guy but experimental proctology is just what this planet needs. After that I think I'll become a theoretical biologist, whatever the fuck that means. Maybe I'll invent chlorine based life and have it gas me and kill me from poison. At least I wouldn't have to be awake anymore. I should probably copy down this post and save it for my psychiatrist. I doub't she'll read it on here. Matter of fact, if she reads the hedge my faith in the fundamental goodness of the universer will be restored. But alas, poor Yorick, as they say. Alas alas alas. Alas,. babylon. Fuck babylon anyway. Fucking number system using base 60? FFS, why? no wonder they all died out. If Napoleon had a B52 at waterloo, would babylon still have fallen to the assyrians? Or did some kind of mobile fungus creature from yuggoth secretly steal all the hand sanitizer and they died from the flu? Where the fuck did the flu come from anyway, and what right does it have to infect people? We ought to sue it and extract payment for damages caused. But then, the flu would have to get a lawyer and then we'd have a virus with legal training. Whisch isn't nearly as good as seagull training. Let's face it, if you could convince a freakin virus that it's really a bird that likes to raid dumpsters, then you can unlock the sectrets of the universe.
First steps to recovery. Forget the humans on planet earth. Virtually all of them are no more relevant to your life than insects crawling around on the floor. Once all the clutter of billions of useless insects are swept from your mind, you can look at the universe, the world, and life all anew... and figure out how you want to live.
At least you'll sleep a lot better.
Oh, and if you're on drugs or alcohol (prescription drugs too)... stop. You won't regret that in the long run, no matter how difficult the process may be.
I can't function in an unmedicated state. I tried it for years with nothing to show for it but grief. Once I found the proper medications my life improved enormously.
Kudos to you other advice though. I'm currently attempting to break free from my family.
im jez giving u a +1 for the cthulhu mythos avatar reference.
All these illuminati and NWO chumps on ZH think the big threat is the Elders of Zion. But you and i know that when Shub-Niggurath pipes to awaken Azathoth, Yog Sothoth will be pissed.
Or something.
Shub-Niggurath? Dats rayciss!
This is a stick up, give me all your money, YOUR MINE!
Out of fuel, be a pillbox,
Out of ammo, be a bunker,
Out of time, be a hero.
"Out of Time", Sung by Christine (Man-friend) Lagarde
You don't know what's going on
You've been away for far too long
You can't come back and think you are still mine
You're out of touch, my baby
My poor discarded baby
I said, baby, baby, baby, you're out of time
Well, baby, baby, baby, you're out of time
I said, baby, baby, baby, you're out of time
You are all left out
Out of there without a doubt
Cause baby, baby, baby, you're out of time
You thought you were a clever girl
Giving up your social whirl
But you can't come back and be the first in line, oh no
You're obsolete my baby
My poor old-fashioned baby
I said baby, baby, baby you're out of time
Well, baby, baby, baby, you're out of time
I said, baby, baby, baby, you're out of time
Yes, you are left out
Out of there without a doubt
Cause baby, baby, baby, you're out of time
I said, baby, baby, you're out of time
Greece is insolvent, and loans can only fix a liquidity crisis, not a solvency crisis. The rest of the insolvent world will find out that printing money doesn't fix a solvency crisis either.
The goat with a thousand young.
You think too much dude probably cause you have too much time to think such shit.
Get your head out of your ass and find something, anything to keep you busy physically and mentally and you'll sleep well.
breathe i n counting to 4, hold counting to 7, breathe out slowly counting to 8
apparently thats the breathing ratio most likely to put you to sleep
randolph carter uses it prior to cognitive dreaming episodes
One thing I have found over the years.... long ago, I had a short bout with depression....
The prescription is easy except it's hard to implement if you are depressed..... the answer is, Work your ass and your brain will follow....
Find some kind of physical labor to do or just go outside and run for a while........ Ever see someone that runs everyday depressed? Probably not.... they're annoying because they're so upbeat..... being physically tired ... you will sleep.
Kudos!
Maybe look into herbs and natural substances. When you find the right ones, which can take some time and experimentation, they usually work better than the addictive prescription poisons, and usually have no side-effects.
Yes, family is often terrible. I escaped them intellectually at a very young age, physically at a fairly young age, and never contacted them again. If you refer to family you've created since then... yeah, that too must be escaped if it doesn't work for you.
Sounds like a major move to someplace exotic and far, far away would do you good. Totally change your environment, don't tell anyone where you're going, and just completely start over from scratch.
I loved where I lived before (Wailea, Maui, Hawaii), but after I moved to the extreme boonies in the southern hemisphere, my life became even much better than living happily in that wonderful paradise for many years. A major change can be great, both physically and mentally.
I feel bad for your insomnia, but good post.
Best thing for insomnia is:
1. Exercise
2. Get off the internet and TV for a while. TV permanent.
3. Mirtazapine (Remeron). Generic drug. Low cost and non-addictive plus pretty mild.
4. Avoid caffine, alcohol. Drink more water.
You really need some sleep bro
"Well it's been an hour"
The best rant I have seen here ever.
"B52"? Your own Private Idaho. Keep it!
wtf did I just read? (almost)
Throw those pathetic Greeks out of Europe already. Let them crash hard against the wall, throw them under the bus. It´s the only way those braindead Greeks will learn about reality.
Sad but true. The euro will be a stonger currency too. Telegraph had an article of the insane state benefits that were doled out to the Greeks including barbers that could retire on a very good full gov pension at something like the age of just 50 due to 'the hazardous nature of their work' yeah right you can't make this shit up. No wonder their fucked. Their problem was socialism and the answer to their problems IS NOT more socialism they've got to sign the deal and take their medicine.
Why the fuck should the countries who have lent to Greece not get their money back? Bollocks - you've borrowed it now you can pay it fucking back.
Why should countries not get their money back from Greece?
Because it was not lent to Greece - just to the Franco-German Banks - odious debts.
The Greeks should just print the money up themselves and give it to them, I mean thats really all we're talking about here, the sovereign authority to print and/or counterfeit.
Problem solviiid!!! ;-)
Dahhh ...
Notice how the entire periphery went on a debt binge at the same time. Coincidence? They 'cunningly' agreed to do it together?
Or perhaps married in a "union" which is a glammed up fixed exchange rate with open trade and capital flows causes imbalances that are locked into place and accumulate as savings on one side and debt on the other. All is needed is a catalyst like the Wall Street crisis to break such a stupid setup.
Germany loves the 'eurozone', which must be German for 'vendor financing scheme'. Germany loves the cheaper euro the setup allows, which gives them the opportunity to export their way to full employment and not have to compete with trading partners using cheaper European currencies. When the shit hits the fan start the morality play against the profligate lazy Greeks and lazy Portuguese and lazy Spanish...even the EC is "lazy guys spending other people's money" according to German officials, who are starting to actually believe their own bullshit.
Meanwhile Germany's demographics are one of the worst in Europe but conveniently all those educated Greeks, Portuguese and Spanish if they want a career can move to Germany. They will even educate you for free now, just show that you can pay for your room and board and get a nice university education. They even provide cost of living lists for different German regions. How convenient.
excellent rant, nicxios. meanwhile, we have the phenomenon of the Second Great Globalization going on, sponsored and brought to us by it's many champions, led by the US and UK
the choice, given us by the EU and the eurozone, is to have a smaller, internal process of globalization. and this leads us to educated Greeks, Portuguese and Spaniards moving to for example, but not only, Germany
the other choice, the one Britons are going to vote on, is to have a greater process of globalization, i.e. not in a continental region but across the world
and this is already visible in educated Portuguese leaving for Brazil, educated Spaniards leaving for many Spanish-speaking countries and educated Greeks leaving for the whole world
part of this is also educated Germans leaving for the US. not long ago, we were witnessing freaking 100'000 university-educated Germans each year leaving for the US
globalization is nothing else then the process of granting liberalism it's demand of battling down borders to the flows of capital, goods, services and people
compare with the Four Freedoms of the EU. it's the same: Freedom of movement of capital, goods, services and people across the EU (and common borders, subject to discussion and treaties)
So you're saying the Germans are smarter than the Greeks.
To the victor go the spoils I say.
Or perhaps, a fool and his money are soon parted.
Truth is, Greece has almost run out of other people's money. Time to face reality.
The Troika debt has primarily been about shifting the debt from private banks to public institutions/sovereigns. Ideally the banks and their shareholders should have taken the hit for the poor investment, its almost as if governments are in the pockets of big business.
Yes Barbers ran up 300+ billion in debt. 10,000,000 barbers in Greece living until 127.
The death knell of the EU will be when Greece (likely sooner rather then later) leaves and doesn't become Somalia, and other countries realize they are better of telling the IMF to fuck off.
That could happen, but isn't a certainty. What Iceland did was to draw a line in the sand and say "we won't be more corrupt that this"... then followed through. Greece could and should do this too, but there is also a very substantial probability that Greece will refuse to limit the degree of corruption at all, much less sufficiently to become long-term viable.
To succeed, Greece needs some "leaders" who are at least moderately pro "individualism" and "liberty" and anti cronyism. AND, at least a substantial size minority of the population has to back such behavior.
Whether enough of the Greece population is willing to "get real", "get responsible", and "reject corruption" is not clear to me. But I hope so.
The Greeks have a long and storied history, developed a culture that has impacted the world from ancient times to the present, and have always had a strong sense of ethnic identity. However, given their location they have been overrun, thus their ability to govern themselves has been short-lived, hence their inablility to govern themselves. Worse, they took the Marxist bait early on and are still suffering the consequences.
After the Ottomans they never really had the chance for good self governance, instead they were subjected to WW1&2, their own civil war, and a constant diet of Marxism which is like a constant diet of heroin. Greece was used as a nesting center for early Bolsheviks who were agitating for the destruction of Russia and seizure of Ottoman territory after the War.
After that they did the most self defeating thing ever and ditched the drachma--the oldest currency still in use--and switched to the Euro, basically volunteering to be destroyed. Then in a show of complete stupidity they looked to the EU to save them and keep their Marxist hallucinations viable.
The best thing they can do now is work with the Russians and live through a time that no Marxist can survive--fiscal responsibility. They are dying as a nation yet they are in deep denial. The only way outside of that that they can still live with all the bennies is if they hand over all their land rights to Brussels. Which they might just do if it guarantees them free money in the mailbox. Leonidas would skewer every Marxist in Athens for what they have done to Greece.
the "death knell of the EU"? depends on what the EU is. in this case, for example, you are writing either about the eurozone, which is a different club, or the IMF, which is again another club
as a reminder, the Greek Gov seems to want to keep it's seat in the IMF as much as the Greek People seem to want to stay in the eurozone
probably true ... but all these gov. are just puppets here and there.
btw, the greek repressentative at IMF is the one for the last few months has been the one in charge working on Greece becoming a member of BRICS bank ... it is a club (as George Carlin used to say).
I would say Greece will become a member soon. eerything already planned.
not sure what to make of this FIFA thing except a distraction when everything is going up in flames. I respect American's disdain for corruption, americans cant even imagine how a presidential candidate can have affairs (clinton excluded of course) ... but to go all the way around the world for some FIFA president ... not sure it makes much sense except keep people talking about smt ... when there are so many other fires to put out ... who knows ...
as continental european I'm neither accustomed to George Carlin nor to the view that clubs of sovereigns are an exercise of "puppets here and there"
here we are accustomed to small and medium sized sovereigns living "cheek to jowl" like sardines in a can. in order to find a sovereign of the size of the US we have to walk to the borders of Russia
and even Russia is small, compared to the US, in many ways except sovereign territory
treaties and clubs of sovereigns are for us, I think, something that our American Cousins can't easily understand if they don't walk a few miles in our shoes
in the case of Greece, membership to both the IMF and the AIIB is a "very high priority". And I can't fault Athens for maneuvering for membership to the AIIB club
These discussions have moved so far from reality that they have become silly. No one can take them seriously.
All the talk of money, debt and politics simply masks the very real fact that every nation (or individual for that matter) must produce useful goods and services competitively or perish.
Infinite money and debt won't produce single potato or car or shirt or gallon of gasoline. Nor will money and debt produce anything that can be traded for the necessities of life.
The humorless fucking Krauts build a manufacturing empire by selling on credit to people who can't afford their products. Then they act surprised when they don't get paid??? It is sort of like the Chinese laundry scheme, where everyone gets rich by doing each other's laundry.
The devious fucking Greeks quit working and live on borrowed money. Then they act surprised when the lenders get hostile??? Just wait until hostile gets really serious.
When the discussion moves around to how Greece can produce real goods and services competitively in the world market and Germany begins to talk of exporting real goods and services that are affordable in the global marketplace without self-financing (buying it from themselves), I'll think there might be some responsible adults left in Europe.
I don't think all the European talk is serious. It is just for show. Everybody knows what must be done. The only choice is to do it in a controlled way or let chaos sort it out.
Greece: Lead the world.
100% DEFAULT on all fiat debt.
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Then... live within your means and do not borrow.
Then maybe Greece and Iceland can start the SZ (sanity zone).
That is true.
It was all printed coin anyway,like as in QE. They are just scared of the swaps which are sniffing around a default, but like Buffet, the hypocrite, once said, 'financial weapons of mass destruction'.
Greece is going to light the fuse, not intentionally, on these derivatives.
Greece may just knock this world wide house of cards down. That explains the weaponization of so many countries as if they were partaking in a world war. There may be one, but just as likely against their own citizens as a means of self preservation.
If Greece does knock down the worldwide house of cards, they'd become my nominal heroes at least for a while, even if they don't deserve it.
ah, but there we have it: you wish for the worldwide house of cards to fall, first, and then you look for something to cheer on to do it
meaning that if Greece does it, but it's not enough to knock the house down... they would still don't deserve your respect, and also forfeit the nominal hero status in your mind?
isn't that projection?
Yes, I want the worldwide house of cards called TYRANNY to fall. Frankly, I don't care what makes it happen, because what is important is... THAT it happens.
Imagine a huge monster invading your town. You and everyone else are throwing rocks at the monster in desperation, hoping to stop the monster from destroying you and everyone else.
The endless streams of rocks are hitting the monster, but he keeps on coming at you and everyone else, because nobody has hit the one tender spot that will kill the monster.
Then BILLY throws a rock that hits the tender spot and the monster falls... dead.
The danger is over.
Who do you think will be raised up and carried through town in the celebration?
BILLY.
It doesn't matter that Billy was just lucky to hit the right spot... the natural feeling is to raise Billy up and celebrate.
And in that sort of spirit, which isn't entirely rational, is the sense I would think of the people of Greece as heroes. Where the actual praise belongs is difficult to say. What matters is... the predators fall, and human being have a chance to live a life with a fair degree of justice.
You're being a bit picky this time, me thinks.
honestann, now you confuse me. I thought that you regard "things" like Greece as a complete fantasy? And now you are cheering for the current leaders of this fantasy?
both Greece and Iceland are nation-states, and you spend a lot of electronic ink trying to explain that they don't exist except in the mind, don't you?
but yes, "live within your means and do not borrow" is always a good advice, imho
oh, I could argue here that the eurozone is trying to be the "sanity zone" of "living within your means", i.e. balanced budgets, but there we have it:
you are "cheering for Greece" (imo good) while also cheering for a 100% default (because it's fiat debt) while the current leaders of Greece maintain that balanced budgets are, in general, "unbearable austerity"
I repeat: on one side, the evil "balance your budget, Greece" and on the other side the plucky Greek Gov saying "that's Austerity and we are sick of it"
very elegant, how you cut this knot: default
you know that defaulting has a price, don't you? for good or evil, this decision has consequences which Greeks would have to bear. in fact, after a default balancing budgets is not only a necessity, it's the only possible way, since you need creditors in order to spend more then you make. And this is the one main reason why this current Greek Gov does not really see default as an option anyway
Good post - I was just about to write this but I think you already nailed it.
He put up yet another bullshit post but you think he nailed it,,,,LOL.
It's not the content that has deteriorated on ZH, it's the intellect of those who are now reading it.
All the early days brilliant posters are ALL, and I repeat ALL, gone. All there is now is ignorant clowns repeating main stream media propaganda and agreeing with themselves.
Yeah, yeah, he nailed it......PMSL
and your argument against my "bullshit" is? which, I presume, is the part where after a default, for a while, balanced budgets are... kind of "the only possibility"?
That's true. Greece is a fiction. And sometimes I do get weary of qualifying all my posts with "x, y and z are fictions"... and fail to do so. I apologize for that, and regret doing so.
However, the humans most people call "the leaders of Greece" can say no.
And the people who live in that area of earth that most people call "Greece" can refuse to pay.
And they can refuse to borrow in the future.
And they can refuse to vote for irresponsible creeps.
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Actually, I applaud you coming down on me hard for being lazy in my message, and speaking in conventional fiat, fake, false and fictional terms. I wish everyone would do that to everyone who posts that lazily.
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Part of your messages seems to ignore part of what I said. I said stop borrowing. I do NOT encourage the "leaders" or "population-of" fictional Greece to continue on their irresponsible ways.
EVERYONE should become responsible. Every. Single. One of them.
The reason I want the so-called "leaders" and "population" of Greece to extract themselves from fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional-reserve predator-controlled debt is to help them... and everyone else on the planet... move towards sanity and responsibility.
What might confuse you is... I want everyone to become sane, rational and responsible. This includes those who are already, those who are almost already, and those who are completely insane and irresponsible too. I encourage them all.
I advocate everyone avoid fiat.
I advocate everyone to not borrow.
I advocate everyone live within their means.
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I agree that on the surface and as a single issue, the eurozone advice to "live within their means" is perfectly reasonable.
But this comes from a pack of human predators who created endless fiat out of thin air, and lent that fiat without rational restraint, and with the explicit purpose of destroying the people in fictional "Greece" in order to enslave those people.
For those scumbags to advise the borrowers of that fiat to work your ass off for decades to pay us back... is not justice.
You'll probably respond with something like, "But those people should have been responsible all along, and not borrowed for unjustified purposes". And I agree with that... EXCEPT... it was the "leaders" (who were pure crony predators) who borrowed that money, and who spent most of that money for unjustified and corrupt purposes.
And so, to make the entire population pay that back is unjust. If you want to demand that the borrowers (those leaders and their crony friends) pay those debts back, then I'm fine with that (thought that isn't precisely just either).
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One the MAMMOTH JOKES in this topic is the term "austerity". What does "austerity" mean? It sounds like it means "stop wasting money"... which we can all agree is better than a good idea.
However, after hearing that term for several months, I realized what they mean by "austerity" is:
- employ fewer government employees.
- cut pay to government employees.
- cut pensions to government employees.
- cut some government programs.
- cut spending on some government programs.
In other words, the term "austerity" is crafted to scare the people in Greece, because it sounds like it means "make everyone in Greece do with less", while in fact it means "cut the quantity of waste that IS that fiction called government".
And so, austerity is good.
In fact, the entire fiction called "the government of Greece" should be closed down, and those who ran it stripped of all their wealth (plus their cronies too).
Now that is austerity.
And that is nothing but positive for the people who live in fictional Greece.
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You say "defaulting has a price". Of course it does! And one of the biggest consequences is... making it much more difficult to be irresponsible by hiding within the fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy that IS the so-called "eurozone".
But let's be more honest, or more "on-point". People love to point to "recession" or "depression" and focus all their attention on those, and try to prevent them.
BUT IN FACT... the problem was the fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional-reserve debt driving BOOM.
The depression is the cure for the sickness.
The fiat boom was the cause of the sickness.
What needs to be dealt with are the causes, because the causes are the causes. Any so-called "fix" of the consequences is just illusion. The consequences will come in one way or other (usually many ways).
And so is the same here.
THE CONSEQUENCES ARE THE CURE.
The morons in fictional Greece, and the morons in fictional eurozone are trying to avoid the consequences that THEY ALREADY CAUSED.
The consequence will happen, because the cause already happened.
However, consequences can be shifted to those who do not deserve them.
And this is the entire game, system, modus-operandi of predators, most definitely including the predators-DBA-Greece and predators-DBA-eurozone and predators-DBA-centralbanks.
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The great thing about total collapses is... they typically happen fast. Crash and burn. Those who were most irresponsible get totally wiped out, as they should. Those who were prudent and refused to join the fiat party and instead lived frugally and saved... they get to buy assets at what might be called bargain prices.
And guess what? These rational, frugal savers will run those businesses they purchased on the cheap VASTLY BETTER than the debt-driven, free-spending, irresponsible morons who were the cause of the disaster.
Which is how it should be, and how a viable world would operate.
"You'll probably respond with something like, "But those people should have been responsible all along, and not borrowed for unjustified purposes". And I agree with that... EXCEPT... it was the "leaders" (who were pure crony predators) who borrowed that money, and who spent most of that money for unjustified and corrupt purposes."
no, to be frank I would not use this line of argumentation. every one of us get's the deal offered by fate, nature or a deity, our life, and it's completely normal, historically, that this deal is full of shitty premises, intermixed with some great things that were left to us from previous generations
but you are talking about Greece, and there, there are a lot of things that are not fictional. The Greek language and culture, for example. But also the Greek Armed Forces. VERY REAL, I fear
Greece is, I fear, a very bad example for "the state is a complete fiction", because it's full of realities, both now and historically, about cities, states and the Nation-State of Greece
generally speaking, many Greeks would agree with you on the "fiction" of the State... while not agreeing with you with the "fiction" of the Nation. in this case the Greek Nation, including it's Diaspora
what is also real is trade. and all this thing about currencies is primarily a thing about balances of trade. something that is often forgotten because of the sorry mess of bloated financial markets
some of the arguments around Greece are "how much". And if you brought it to a "down to earth" extreme simplification, the matter is, beside the option of a default, if Greece ought to devalue by X% or "deflate" by X%
and here powerful interests and ideologies are using Greece (in the same way as you are "using" Greece for your wish for a Great Crash, btw) as a "battlefield"
one sides says: keep the currency at the eurozone levels and devalue internally by X%. Which means salaries to decrease by X%
the other side says: devalue the currency by X%. Which means salaries would stay the same, but would buy less, by X%, including of course the whole gaggle of debt being less but also savings being less
this is, in a (extremely simplified) nutshell, the whole "Battle of Greece"
this is, btw, a battle that will score points in the Great Argument about gold. The EUR, for good or bad, is a proxy for this battle. "To Balance Budgets or Not To Balance Budgets"
From FOFOA:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/07/debtors-and-savers.html
The depression is the cure for the sickness.
The fiat boom was the cause of the sickness.
Those who were prudent and refused to join the fiat party lived frugally and saved...
Nearly every "Western Government" is guilty of participating in the fiat party to varying degree. No less so Germany, the " lender of choice" to so many insolvents such as Greece.
Let this entire fiat system crash, and everyone sort themselves out in whatever way that suits them, albeit free from the ability to rampantly print and/or borrow.
The fallacy, IMO, is thinking the Germans, Greeks, etc., would ever see eye to eye on how to best spend their time and money... Culturally, it's not gonna happen.
Thanks, Honest Ann / Ghordius
re your fallacy - you mention Greece but also Germany:
the world continues to become a smaller place, and once feudal competitors become co-operators against a larger external competitor
It was only as recent as 1870 that Germany was not in existence as a modern state, but was a bunch of smaller states. Its formation - the threat to trade advantages of france and england specifically - led to WW1, the aftermath of which seeded WW2 - and here's my point
DESPITE Germany getting its ass kicked and Berlin being captured twice in 25 years, the nation State of germany - as an idea - was undismantleable, and it remains an indispensable cohesive state today
Its not hard to imagine Europe coalescing culturally as an identity. Its just that the Structure is fucked up, perverting incentives and generating resentments. But if they changed to a model that addressed those issues, the Euro project might power on as a natural competitor to USA and Asia
The problem with this line of thinking should be obvious. ANY, and I do mean ANY system is inherently corrupt and EVIL.
Why so?
Because not everyone is the same, not everyone has the same values, not everyone wants the same approach, not everyone likes the same environment or lifestyle.
But ANY system imposes a SINGLE set of values and approaches and environment and lifestyle ON EVERYONE.
THIS IS EVIL.
This is also extremely inefficient.
The name for this is "central planning".
Obviously nobody learned anything from the collapse of the USSR. Central planning does not work, central planning is brutal, unjust and destructive.
What the world needs is 7-billion nations... each composed of one human being, and the set of values and approaches and environment and lifestyle of each apply to ONE human being. Which means... no nations.
Every other scheme sets EVERYONE against EVERYONE... as everyone tries to impose their values, approaches, environment and lifestyle on everyone else... because that's how they want to live.
How obvious can any topic be?
Centralization is slavery.
".....In fact, the entire fiction called "the government of Greece" should be closed down, and those who ran it stripped of all their wealth (plus their cronies too).
Now that is austerity.
And that is nothing but positive for the people who live in fictional Greece."
RESPECT!!!! say that a million times.... this is what should be happening..
To me that's exactly the point in all of this. If it wasn't for the Euro, the Greek government would not have been able to take on so many credits in the first place. This was only possible thanks to the relative safety net the Eurozone provided. And you are right in that the Greek government has no interest in returning to the pre-Euro days where interest rates reflected actual risks of government default much better.
The problem is, if you give a child a 500 Euro bill and say it should rather put it away instead of spending it as an advice but never check on it, what's likely going to happen? Had Greek still had its own currency that child would have received some candy at the most. I don't belong to the group of people blaming all the ills on Greece or all on the EU, all parties have some blame in this but it sure points out why the Euro as such is a misconstruction if some member states don't maintain balanced budgets and others try to do so. Imbalances only exist for a time in the economy, that's a law most people trust on in here!
"This was only possible thanks to the relative safety net the Eurozone provided"
I see it in a way more cynical way then that. I remember megabanks in London and NY constantly arguing that we in the EU and particularly in the eurozone need EuroBonds and a fiscal union
they still argue for that, I can't pick any semi-serious financial newspaper here without finding some banker lobbyist writing about "you have to fix that relative safety net"
on the other side, Americans were lured into european sovereign bonds by megabanks, through many, many channels, including the "Money Market Papers" and Certificate of Deposits
all with the claim of: "watch, europeans have the ECB, that's the same as the FED, they won't let any sovereign fall"
among them, the Vampire Squid Firmly Wrapped Around The Face Of Humanity and The Right Honourable Senator and Governor Jon Corzine, CEO of MF Global, a big investor into "european sovereign debt is backed by the equivalent of the FED, buy, buy, buy"
and this "exposure to eurozone debt" was also very, very badly structured. Here an article from "Memory Lane": http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/31/us-mfglobal-idUSTRE79R4YY20111...
"In the end, regulators and markets reacted swiftly to MF Global's troubles, which may have been exacerbated by Corzine's affinity for risk-taking over the course of a career that took him to the top echelons of Wall Street and then into politics.
"They went for what would be a *** very profitable trade with European sovereign debt *** that obviously has blown up in their face, and brought the company down," said Dave Westhouse, vice president of Chicago retail broker PTI Securities and Futures"
BTW, one of the reasons why Corzine was "all in" Greek and other bonds was imho a mistake of the ECB: leaving rates too high, compared to the FED, and so allowing a huge rush of USD trying to find some hyper-leveraged bets in the eurozone based on a 1% difference in CB rates
We Europeans can't ignore the FED. Nobody on this planet can. Keep that in mind when talking about the ECB, or the eurozone, or Greece
I agree with not ignoring the FED and thank you also for the article, I will read it. But I think if you say Americans investing in EUR denominated assets because of interest rate differentials is the main problem, I still don't see how this is opposed to what I said. In the end it's not much different from the sub-prime crisis, in that real interest rates no longer reflected actual risk taking. (Something that is currently happening with sovereign bonds all over the place). Had the Greek been outside the Eurozone, I'm sure it would not have been so easy for Wall Street to sell this collateral to Americans. If I wanted some EUR Money-Market Paper I knew I wasn't going to buy Turkish or Belarusian bonds i.e.
And if you mention London and New York, also mention Frankfurt and Paris because we all know that European banks also went all in on periphery debt!
I know bankers are really good in what they do, that's why they keep the spoils for themselves and unload the risk to others. All I'm saying is that the market distortions that the Eurozone creates, helped them to sell more risky assets under the guise of ECB security. That's what I meant with safety net, which, as we can see now, never actually existed.
I think we agree on most points. Perhaps except this one: "the market distortions that the Eurozone creates, helped them to sell more risky assets under the guise of ECB security"
my point is that the eurozone countries had and have treaties
and bankers, be them in NY, London, Frankfurt, Paris or wherever else, happily sold those treaties as something they weren't... while still lobbying for a fiscal union and EuroBonds, for example
further, I am using this example in order to point out that whenever the eurozone (or any other currency zone) has a rate differential, the global reserve currency rushes in
Turkey is another excellent example for that, with plenty of ZH articles that were pointing out on how the USD propelled their stock market up, up, up
American grannies were lured into CD deposits that were used, with plenty of leverage, to find some differential to exploit. That's my "story" of MF Global. It's simplified, I agree, but I still find it more fitting then a "the eurozone created distortions"
""They went for what would be a *** very profitable trade with European sovereign debt *** that obviously has blown up in their face, and brought the company down," said Dave Westhouse, vice president of Chicago retail broker PTI Securities and Futures"
BTW, one of the reasons why Corzine was "all in" Greek and other bonds was imho a mistake of the ECB: leaving rates too high, compared to the FED, and so allowing a huge rush of USD trying to find some hyper-leveraged bets in the eurozone based on a 1% difference in CB rates"
i can appreciate this..... but where does that leave the Greek people... lets assume that the "childs" (the mafia that runs Greece) read this situation and took the money... now what?
is it right for the common people to suffer because of the criminal acts of the cronies? NO sir
"is it right for the common people to suffer because of the criminal acts of the cronies? " no, I agree
basically everything that makes the common people suffer is not right, in my book. the question is how to prevent such situations. for example, my problem with this situation is how to get the rates in the eurozone back to anything even remotely resembling sanity, where I then look at what happens when rates differential arise and wish I could cick someone responsible for it
If they had "just" left it at a "Common Market"
Not one of thease conversations would need to take place.
Greeks have always lived a simple life uncomplecated until they joined in the Monetry Union and all the other regulatory crap that comes out of the unelected vampire sucking elites.
The Euro and eurozone will go down in hisory for years and years and many books films etc will made ...........................just like the fall of Rome has.
yeah right... Tsipra show the world the path to communism where everyone is a government employee... North Korea style...
the whole negotiation bull shit going on is happening for the benefit and the privileges of the public workers.. Tsipras is going to tax the hell out of the private economy in order to not layoff public workers or slash their pensions
DEFAULT. CRASH THE FRENCH AND GERMAN BANKS. GET SOME PAYBACK... Karma's a bitch, banksters! You made a bad investment, PAY FOR IT
I stopped to listen to the man and his academic tautologies months ago. He thinks he sticks to his guns but in fact his is giving circus away inch-by-inch everyday.
This is insult to intelligence to believe that it is going somewhere. It is clear dead end. ECB uses it to discipline the rest of euro or EU.
The facts.
1. Government has no control over third biggest Army in EU, biggest Army per capita, no military cuts whatsoever, they even buying useless shit from US as we speak.
2. Government has no control over police, no cuts in pay or benefits no prosecution of rampant civil right violations by police against leftist parties and groups.
3. Government has no control over prosecutors and judges, only ONE investigation, related to theft of national treasure, of people connected to oligarchs and foreign banks was open while Syriza members made over thousand requests for investigations.
4. Government has no control over banks. It’s obvious because of ECB but Syriza members requested thousands of reports on banking activities or requests to stop oligarch from repatriating their stolen wealth abroad, no response.
5. Government has stolen retirement money and practically reneg on immediate election promises regarding increase of employment, while paying off so far troika gangsters against their own stated policies and election promises.
6. Government did not nationalized state assets sold to foreign investors for peanuts as declared in their own stated policies that obtained parliament vote of confidence.
7. Government did not use Russia lebe=verage in NATO context and did not worm up frozen relationship with Turkey as extremely strong bargaining chip in current geopolitical situation potentially weakening of NATO southern flank.
I stop here but it’s no all.
The Syriza violated their own manifesto hundreds of times during last 5 month proving that it is a fake political entity negotiating cash deal for their own leaders while collapsing their own country.
It’s pure political theater for “benefit” of raped Greek peasants.
As I said before on ZH no Greek blood on the street no revolution against EU totalitarianism disguised as brotherly love.
OT Anyone know the difference between this FIFA thing and the Clinton foundation and why there are only arrests on one side of the equation?
Urrrrmm, is it because FIFA doesn't have 2000 military bases?
that FIFA is a bunch of mostly foreigners?
to be frank, I am applauding the US effort to clean up this corruption at FIFA
what I am less happy about is that the prosecutor is using the FBI with the same methods that were developed for battling against armed mafia gangsters
and I fear this could change the softer way that european prosecutors and agencies use for such cases. further, it's clearly based on info gathered by the NSA, and there I fear too european prosecutors asking for the same kind of tools, in order to get the same kind of results
very effective, those methods, but also incredibly brutal, for european standards, and imho too strongly based on variations of the "Prisoner's Dilemma" and the incredible power of a prosecutor that is allowed to make backdoor deals that do not involve any judge (or jury)
as a reminder, 95% of the US incarcerations result on "deals" between prosecutor and prosecuted. is it justice if no tribunals are involved?
As long as you are a bankster, you are safe.
WB7, I don't understand your point. If bankers had the same level of political power in the eurozone as in the US or in the UK, things like the EU Banker Bonus Cap would not have ever happened
you are making a very cheap point, here, of the kind of "string 'em up"
I am talking about prosecution methods that were set up for battles against armed mafia gangsters
and I think that if this kind of prosecution methods were applied to non-armed crimes, we all lose by it. and I don't wish Europe to follow this path, or adopt this kind of prosecution laws
we are trying, here, to tackle the banking problem by reducing it to a facility business. and a Cap on Bonuses is a start
you seem to cheer this kind of tyrannical power of public prosecutors as long as someone bleeds and someone get's "strung up"
to me, it looks like throwing the Baby Of Liberty out with the Dirty Water Of Corruption
I repeat my line: "95% of the US incarcerations result on "deals" between prosecutor and prosecuted. is it justice if no tribunals are involved? "
what is the chance, using this kind of methods, that banksters get scot-free by a cosy deal with a prosecutor? who has an election campaign to finance?
at a certain point, the "rah, rah, string them 'up" is imho terribly childish, and does not lead to justice
(in case someone does not understand: generally speaking, in the eurozone we have no elected judges and no elected prosecutors
meanwhile, our judges and prosecutors have much, much less leeway in deals, and things have generally to be trashed out in tribunals, not back-rooms
and, again, we use more laws and less the justice system for systemic approaches to problems)
For the record, I don't think you are a complete moron because you can type.
When I say you are safe if you are a bankster, that is precisely what I mean to say, full stop. Yet you seem to think this is some kind of childish rah rah, string em up rant or whatever. And consistent with your typical modus operandi, you have fabricated a load of bullshit and attempted to sign my name to it.
To the contrary my words are a simple statement of fact which the vast majority of readers on this site understand immediatley.
It is a known fact the the Racketeer Influenced Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) and various other creative hardball prosecution techniques have been reserved strictly for mobsters and, apparently, international soccer organizations.
This is the Eric Holder Doctrine. Banksters get out of jail free. Creative prosecution techniques are reserved for everyone else.
They have never ever applied RICO to the corrupt racketering enterprises of modern banking, save for one example: Drexel Burnham & Lambert. And we know that they were not TBTF.
Notwithstanding the fact that every white collar criminal lawyer worth his salt knows that RICO is precisely what should have been applied to Wall Street et al post 2008.
So take your italicized cheap point and childish commentary and shove it up your ass.
Now now children , play nicely.
for the record, I was under the impression that I would refrain from unleashing my unwarranted verbosity on your comments while expecting something in return, like a restraint on putting this kind of cryptic remarks under my comments. It looks like I misunderstood you, and it's my fault, I guess
your remark is not cryptic for "the vast majority of readers on this site", you claim. I accept your claim, for I am for sure not a representative for "the average", something I can't and won't change
the middle part of your comment is by the way very, very important for me, and I would like to thank you for it
it looks like this is the modus operandi in which we exchange thoughts: I get a for-me-cryptic remark, I ask what you mean with my kind of questions, which in this settings are seen as unwarranted "straw men", which then unleashes both a very solid remark from your side garnished with some insults
oh, well, I think there is way worse then that. +1
I don't see any insult garnishing my inital comment.
Any volunteers see otherwise?
However, I do see italicized insults in your return comment.
I will confess though, I have been called worse things than a childish rah rah slinger.
and I confess that I am willing to use any kind of method, including what you regard as insults, as long as it prods you to relinquish information I do not have and comments like this one above
and this is my interpretation of the rules of this club. one in which I would never be allowed in if it was not virtual
I'm glad you gave it to him WB, well done. And, G, your posts are thought provoking but often seem to just be devils advocate stuff, never intended to divine the truth
possibly because I am what Plato would deem a Sophist, i.e. someone that does not believe in The Ultimate Truth, a Platonic Ideal based on the assumption that there is an Ideal Sphere and it's projection on the Real Sphere. Plato, btw, brought us the wisdom of Socrates and then garnished it with a lot of things which I deem rubbish
like the Sophists, I think that in every human conflict there are at least two sides, which on a human level are all "right". like them, I believe you ought to hear the "Devil's Side", too
and this, I fear, makes me a "Moral Relativist", a passionate "Devil's Advocate" and a believer of the process of discussion of things in order to divine all the relative truths
take Plato's political stance, for example: he brought us a lot of good discussions about the characters of the Republic... while he was the nephew (and a supporter) of one of the Thirty Tyrants, which were the last ditch attempt to restore an Athenian (authoritarian) Confederation of Tribes, based on Tribal Rights, while putting the whole in the context of an Alliance with Sparta, which meant a support for an Oligarchic Regime in Athens. As such, good... Sophistry
meanwhile, Sophistry brought us the method of the Process in Court, the radical notion that you need to hear both sides, in public. which ties the whole back to my initial rant
@Ghordius
As there are 3 sides to everyone it is a 6 sided in human conflict.
We are all 3 people
Who we are
Who WE think we are
And what OTHER PEOPLE THINK WE ARE ( and this can have many variables from differant peoples perspective)
It's not the responsibility of the United States to cleanup FIFA.
The authority of United States does not extend beyong CONCACAF, which is domiciled in the Bahamas and headquatered in the US.
As usual the United States seeks to replace Confederation and Democracy with unitary vassals that it can manipulate to serve its own purposes.
It's not like the vote on Lex FIFA wasn't scheduled in the Ständerat before the circus kicked off, and there aren't more legitimate and lawful efforts to cleanup FIFA already underway.
Moreover while the US brought charges in their own puppet courts, they have so far failed to provide the requesite documentation for extradition to Federal Prosecutors, May 27 was 9 says ago.
I think your characterization of this circus as an attempt to clean up FIFA conveniently ignores all the evidence that the intent of the US is not to actually clean up FIFA.
UR, you too?
what "characterization of this circus"? I am using this circus as a backdrop to point out that I dislike the methods of prosecution
English is by far not my best language, but I don't see why I am misunderstood so easily, here. Or that I nevertheless prefer a cleanup of the FIFA instead of... not
"the intent of the US is not to actually clean up FIFA" on this we can, I think, all agree
That makes sense, but there is an implication in "disliking the methods of prosecution" that there is a more agreeable alternative. Without clarification, one could reasonably infer that US prosecutors simply not entering into pretrial plea negotiations with defendants would be an acceptable alternative.
The reason that 90% of cases are settled with guilty pleas is that the entire legal system is setup so that the State can, ad arbitrium, imprison and forfeit the private property of anyone subject to its jurisdiction at any time.
Both US legislators and Judges are guilty of Albert Barlett's greatest shortcoming of the human race.
I know FATCA (and several other specialties of American "law") six ways from Sunday, but I got caught up this clusterfuck violation of codified natural rights by the United States. Why should I be subject to a prison and a $25,000 fine? I don't live in the US. I don't bank in the US. I don't do business in the US. Why should I be held liable for everything the US Department of Commerce publishes in a daily newspaper that runs several hundred pages?
The US legal system is not a legal system in the traditional sense, it is a virtually unconstrained political tool for achieving outcomes.
UR, who is this Albert Barlett? When/where did this start? Is FATCA really central to the methods of prosecution? Doesn't the Swiss Conf have alternative methods?
Albert Bartlett, physicist, progenitor of "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." The implications of that failure also applies to the United States Code (statutory law), Code of Federal Regulations (administrative law) and Case Law (common law).
In the case of FIFA, FATCA isn't the method. The method is various administrative laws that are the statutory responsibility of FINCEN (within the Department of Treausry) are being used.
The issue of alternative methods is being debated here now (which would reign in not only FIFA but also the IOC and other international organizations), which makes this episode that much more bizarre. But whatever the final outcome of current debates, the Swiss solution won't come close to current American tyranny and American perversion of Rule of Law. If Barack Obama named me a United States Attorney tomorrow, I could secure a guilty plea with a multi-million dollar fine and a couple years in prison from Mitt Romney for the corruption that he was brought in to clean up for the Salt Lake City Olympics using only existing United States law and accepted legal practices. That's how utterly broken and corrupt the US system is.
http://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/staenderat-will-mit-zwei-ellen-messen-1.18554635
http://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/staenderat-diskutiert-ueber-lex-fifa-1.18554467
+1, UR, THANKS. food for thought
The FIFA thing is a geopolitical putsch disguised as a legal matter, to install some compliant puppets, like all in the geopolitical putsch family album.
The ultimate goal is to get Russia 2018 overturned on the basis of back handing.
Guess who will host 2018 instead? Of course the puppet master or the puppet master's favourite puppet at the time of the puppet show. They should therefore, rename the show Putsch & Judy.
Thats not the game boys. They - the ECB and BIS are after the Greek gold.
They have managed to get a chunk of Venezuela's gold and now they will grab some of Greece's. I would be battening down the hatches if I was Portugal.
Have a look at this list. 2, soon to be 3 out of 5.
http://i12.photobucket.com/albums/a232/taipan74/SKIBCForum/Gold%20holdin...
All have much higher reserves in gold then anybody else apart from the very big players. If your small and want a free ride it aint going to happen on the reset.
Sadly, two points missing from above analysis.
1, The losses EZ governments will have to reveal to their voters - summarised here - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-26/graccident-will-trigger-demise-...
2. Whilst a Grexit might focus minds of other PIIGS, it will also tell the markets that the Euro is no longer a one-way street. They, not the elctorate, may determine what happens - next in Portugal my guess.
Hence, I do not think either side can afford a default and/or exit. MAD.
Maybe a case of handing a sizeable chunk of gold over, to reduce their reserves more into line with all the other small countries. "Greece - your supposed to be poor - now act it, give us the gold under the bed" say the gang over at the ECB.
Look Tsipras, only bankers get un-conditional bailouts.
Maybe we should introduce the EU tactics to our housing market.
When you can’t afford to pay your mortgage, the lender gives you more to make the repayments.
What Greeks can count on is politicians´ unwillingness to start explaining to electorate, why their nation´s loan guarantees turned into huge losses. It is easy to be generous, when handing over somebody else´s money, but asking them to explain this action is highly unpalatable. The can can always be kicked a millimeter further.
Greece will default... and stay within the Euro. It's inevitable.
Just get it over with. Kicking the can...
96 elephants are poached every day .... to fund Islamic Jihad !
I agree with this article entirely. I believe Syriza has had the plan to default and exit since the beginning, but that wasn't politically viable in January. This Spring has been necessary to get the population on board to understand that this is the only option, if not the right thing to do. They want to be forced out, but the EU doesn't want them to leave in any easy/clean kind of way -- the EU wants to make an example out of them to Portugal etc, showing how painful it is to even consider leaving. You try to escape... you're dead. But they don't want to pay for Greece to stay in anymore either -- so they want to drag this out until the humanitarian catastrophe leads the Greek people to change their government, they hope, and put an EU puppet government back in there -- this is the EU's only goal. Make them pay for their audacity of voting in a government that promotes national sovereignty. Hence the long process. Cynical, disgusting, inhuman... EXCEPT if in the end, Syriza really is in control of this and will steer the country to safety soon via default, exit, and new relations with the East.
Greece is the illegitimate, bastard child of the corrupt organisation that is the EU. That a lot of other bastard children are waiting in the wings to join up to this organisation tells me that their economies are sunk and a few elites in these countries are ready to sell off whatever assets remain for their own benefit.
A few vultures like Goldman Sucks are awaiting the go-ahead to pluck/bleed them dry.
For the insolvent USSofA and countries like France, Greece is a good distraction.
The sheepalites of all these brokeback entities need to wake the fuck up. I'm hoping Spain, maybe Italy shall drive the final nail into the coffin of this Ginormous Sodding Ponzi.
At least some of the assumptions and conclusions in the article are dead wrong. The EU is extremely keen to retain Greece within the union. Otherwise they would have not allowed the ECB to pump 100 billion liquidity assistance into the Greek banks over the last weeks. Let us not argue about the motivation, let us stick to the fact that all past action points to the overriding interest of keeping Greece in. Factually creditors might loose up to 500 billion on a complete (would make most sense for Greece) Greek default (330 billion plus 100 billion transfer accounts plus unaccounted guarantees). The Greek side is more foggy. It seems possible that it caves (more likely) or pulls the trigger (less likely). Only an exit would serve Greece and the Greek people. But which politician has ever done something for the people and not only for themselves. It would be an extremely strange "first" - again rather an unlikely event.
the EU is extremely keen to retain Greece within the union as a DEBT COLONY not as an equal partner.... Just look at the GDP levels ......
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RYXQUhdeUv0/VW3ofcaJBSI/AAAAAAAAJLQ/Fd7qXk2pbj...
the EU is extremely keen to retain Greece within the union as a DEBT COLONY not as an equal partner.... Just look at the GDP levels ......
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-RYXQUhdeUv0/VW3ofcaJBSI/AAAAAAAAJLQ/Fd7qXk2pbj...
Re: Prosecutors
Prosecutors offices at the state and federal level are the the minor leagues of politics, where future politicians learn to lie on the record, destroy and distort evidence, and craft slimy deals. Political offices are overflowing with former attorneys and former prosecutors.
Get their money back? You fucking tool! Greece should tell the Euro banksters to fuck right off and go find another host. Fucking leeches!
Is this why metals prices are way down?
The FIFA thing is most certainly the US acting as world policeman to further its own ends, most probably to get at Russia. Or its revenge for FIFA choosing Russia against US threats. How dare they ignore the super important USA instructions.
Kind of pathetic that the US has sink to world football to tit-for-tat with Russia.
Which leads on to the idea that Greece must seem a very tasty morsel for Russia, though I think too much to do alone, thus a Joint China or BRICS deal to save their arses (temporaily) in exchange for something that would really piss USA off.
Greece however it is total toast no matter what happens. Debt can never be repaid, and they will be waiting decades for GDP to grow enough to provide suprluses to deal with the debt. And this debt itself with austerity trash Greek GDP.
You would think that the greater powers want Greek to be an absolute basket case .. so that they can control it in its entirity.
entirety, but otherwise, yeah what you said. EuroZone wants Greece as a vassal state, but I hope Tsipras & Co. tell them to fuck off.
What say you?
OT:
HAARP
http://republicbroadcasting.org/conspiracy-theorists-vindicated-haarp-co...
Greeks understand that 90% of its of the debt never bennefitted average joe. Debt out of thin air to benefit the elite is not their obligation in any way or form. Greece will exit if the fraudulent 90% of debt isn't written off. Troika between a rock and a hard place, fund Greece further and face PIGS or watch Greece exit and the EU dies.
The proverbial "can" gets heavier and heavier.
out of options ?
Greeece has the putin/china option.
They have the obama option ( cause they aren't allowed to leave cause NATO).
All the Greeks need to do is give the chilled Russians one nice warm Greek vacation. Las Vegas style, fully comped. Endless cash will then pour in.
"If you build it they will come."
This is not just about Greece.
This is really about Debt and cheap money and central banks devaluing currency and flooding bond markets.
what happens if the Fed stops buying Treasury bonds ? what happens to the bond bubble the central banks created ?
Greece could be the catalyst that deflates the bond market. If yields rise, the whole bond-market is blowing up world-wide
and it will start in the USA. If 10 year bonds normalize at 4% the world economy will go into a depression and market-economies based on ZIRP and QE will collapse.
WE ARE IN the biggest US FED INFLATED BOND BUBBLE ever ! Now the EU is following the US down that idiotic path of ZIRP and QE and currency devaluation,
which will end in blowing up the global bond market bubble.
The US Federal Reserve Bank started all this shit, thinking they had found a way to pay their way out of Debt with ever more debt...
thinking that Game theory could be applied in such a way that there would be only winners, and no losers.
But now the Game is up. It's hard for some to believe, but in the end it comes all down to this:
the Fed created a huge bubble in the bond market, which all other central banks followed
and now we have a global bond market that is in a bubble and will burst anytime now.
Greece could be the catalyst of the biggest Bondmarket crash in modern history !
and NO, I am not drunk or on drugs - but sometimes I wish I was -
WR;)
thats the same phrase, that im hearing since last year
Dear Greece,
If you exit the euro, your two main engines of tourism and agriculture will both boom.
Foreigners will bring their money to you, and your exports will be cheap.
Imported energy will cost you more -but oil is half the price it was.
You can manage this cost, just default.
Ignore your internationalist wealthy, their money is out of Greece long-time.
What do you owe the French and German banks for their stupidity?