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Initial Jobless Claims Hover Near 42 Year Lows
After 2 weeks of increassing (though near cycle low) jobless claims, last week saw a modest drop from a revised 284k to 276k. Texas saw initial claims jump to the highest in 5 weeks - stable at new normal higher-than-before the oil price crash. This leaves the smoother average hovering at or near 42 year lows... which leaves everyone in the world asking why ZIRP and why lower for longer and why moar threats of QE at every negative macro print or 2% drop in stocks. It seems pretty clear that companies have cut as far as they can cut... so any downturn in the economy now flows right through to the bottom line. The big question is - does any of this data extrapolate into the noise-prone payrolls number tomorrow.. and thus the future of the western world's wealth-creation bubble machine.
With Texas still troubled...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Are we at 94 million yet?
Don't mean to rain on anyone's parade, but I'm going to.
It's all BS
The only thing that maters is how much .Gov takes in to how much it spends
All that matters is the FED. Initial claims doesn't include robots for those $15/hr jobs. Once the job is converted to a robot, it becomes a scrap it or sell it decision.
Oh, and did anybody notice what happens to initial claims after they bottom out at 42 year lows? Yes, they rise.
There's no one left to lay off.
sure there are
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/04/us/last-task-after-layoff-at-disney-tr...
"which leaves everyone in the world asking why ZIRP and why lower for longer and why moar threats of QE..... It seems pretty clear that companies have cut as far as they can cut..."
I cant claim to be an expert ... but from what the expert say QE was never about companies or the real economy .. it has all to do with Wall Street, banks and who owns the system ...... that would be my rough take, but hey who am I, ZH editors got to know better ...
You must be new here. Now back to my lurk mode. Oh and time to get my tithe of silver today.
Thank you Captain Obvious!
If the headline had been Jobless Claims Spike, there'd be hundreds of you schmucks high-fiving each other here in the comment section. But because employment prospects are good, there's not much for you traitors to talk about except your dwindling fortunes in gold.
amerikan patriot .
amerikan patriot .
Take a look at the inactivity rate. Employment stats are bad propaganda and the Fed knows this when considering the "full employment" part of their mandate. The old philips curve was for a healthy non fake economy where unemployment stats were meanjngful.
Asking for Truth where little exists hardly begets a 'traitor', Stooge. And while we're at it, please flesh out just what SECTORS in this land of wonderful employment prospoects are so 'good', please...?
Thanks kindly,
---
What do you get when you work your fingers to the bone? Boney fingers.
Thumbs up for going old school.
+++++ booboo
That was a great tune back in the day ---
Full employment at last!
why seek work in the first place?
....when it's more profitable to get SNAP, AFDC, O'care, O'Phone, 99 weeks of UI and the other host of freebies.
How much of the drop off in "Initial Claims" is due to people no longer qualifying for unemployment insurance? Which is further complicated by that fact that not only are there 50 different standards, but in many states one can continue to draw UI while they are only employed part time, thus reducing future eligibility in the event of their next lay off.
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
While the UI claims data provide useful information, they are not used to measure total unemployment because they exclude several important groups. To begin with, not all workers are covered by UI programs. For example, self-employed workers, unpaid family workers, workers in certain not-for-profit organizations, and several other small (primarily seasonal) worker categories are not covered.
In addition, the insured unemployed exclude the following:
Unemployed workers who have exhausted their benefits.
Unemployed workers who have not yet earned benefit rights (such as new entrants or reentrants to the labor force).
Disqualified workers whose unemployment is considered to have resulted from their own actions rather than from economic conditions; for example, a worker fired for misconduct on the job.
Otherwise eligible unemployed persons who do not file for benefits.
Because of these and other limitations, statistics on insured unemployment cannot be used as a measure of total unemployment in the United States. Indeed, over the past decade, only about one-third of the total unemployed, on average, received regular UI benefits.
The level of employment on 1099 is now a majority of the jobs since 2009!
These people get hours reduced or not called in and they still cant file for unemployment benifits
The 1099 is the major key to these phony numbers and all the other contrived systems such as falling off the roles after six months
the UE is enormous - why not have a new index called the:
DISSAPEAREDS !!
Do the Claims data matter anymore? In previous cycles Claims fell because people were finding jobs but as this horror show drags on doesn't falling Claims just mean people who have reached the end of the (extended?) benefits period and get dropped off the program?
I feel better already.
trim tabs being utilized.....low initial claims to counteract the negative .7% GDP......extend and pretend.....green shoots....it's all right around the corner.....in year 7
Smells fishy.
EDUstay.
Can't find a job, get an education free, move to Germany and live the good life.
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-32821678
Virtually everyone I meet during my day to day routine is prosperous and upbeat about the economy. The vast majority of us kept our job during the last downturn and we'll keep it again during the next one.
It's really just the 'doom and gloom' idiots that frequent sites like this who always see the glass as half empty.
I see nothing, and yes we can!
But this isn’t some aberration or outlier. This is the entire Obama presidency. Obama’s seven first quarters as president are at a combined average of -0.43 percent. Obama is the only president in the history of America’s recorded economic measurement to accomplish this.
Let me repeat: This is the worst seven-year record in the history of America’s recorded GDP.
Obama is also the only president in history to have produced four separate first quarters that were negative. We started measuring GDP in 1947. Obama is certainly one of a kind: a trendsetter. He is setting records for disaster and futility never before imagined in the greatest country in world history. And guess what? We’re all going along for the ride. I hope you buckled your seat belt.
Yet no one appears willing to say out loud and on the record that something is very wrong, that this isn’t normal.
No one is willing to say this isn’t possible to do by mistake. No one is willing to suggest there is a madman — a suicide bomber — at the controls, taking our economy and country down just like that German pilot divebombed that plane into the ground two months ago.
Want more proof? The average first quarter GDP since measurements began in 1947 was 4 percent:
Under Obama, here are the seven first quarters:
https://propagandaguard.wordpress.com/2015/06/04/proof-we-have-a-suicide-bomber-in-the-white-house/
Obama is screwing up the winter weather, obviously.
Thank you Mr. No E.
Thank you for the report from Shangri-La .
must be at one of the mega-banks in kahoots with gov.
The fact that you try trolling and fail miserably on a daily basis is just too enjoyable.
Translation: Now when you get laid-off you don't even qualify for unemployment due to not working enough hours, not being employed long enough, being forced to be an "independent" contractor, etc.
OK now they have reached bottom. Until the next floor gives way, then watch out below.
http://nypost.com/2015/06/03/economys-biggest-issue-people-dont-have-mon...
Instead of this incessant whining, folks just need to get a job. There are plenty of good jobs available for those with training - lots of engineering and IT positions out there going unfilled.
You don't seem to hold one (too much time spent trolling this blog), so stop lecturing others, you dolt !
If things are so good in the USA, why do they have payday loans and food stamps?
Whole population's being bribed not to work. While they prepare to kill us.
Worth remembering that these are raw numbers. The full time workforce of 42 years ago was a lot smaller. As a percentage, this is as good as it gets. Wish it felt that way.
"Texas" still troubled, thats a funny.
Indeed. Perry's going to have to rework that stump speech.
Where's Tyler's post on the Challenger cuts?
Oh, sorry. Just saw they dropped 33%. Will have to hope for next month.
The US Con game continues with more mosleading data.
Not necessarily misleading, it could simply mean nobody is being hired anymore.
There hasn't been a new tech job created in America in 10 years. During that time we imported 265,000 Indians with fake degrees each and every year on the H-1B visa. Thats 2.6 million of them. There are only 4 million tech jobs in america. We are facing 90% unemployment rate for our best and brightest.
We also import fake doctors with fake degrees based on cheating by the tens of thousands, the majority again from India.
No Mr. CHappati head, a 2 week course is not the same as four year degree from MIT