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What Does Credit "Know" About Payrolls?
Maybe nothing... but one thing is for sure - protection is bid into tomorrow's uncertainty (despite rates collapse today).
Charts: Bloomberg
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"Credit" is not about payrolls but moar about Greece
And that the Fed balance sheet is shrinking so they have to raise rates very soon.
Raise rates? ahahaha
Maybe the Fediots could pull this off, if it were accompnaied by a monsta wicked wealth tax. With total US household net worth above $60 trillion, a 25% 'one-time' (wink, wink) wealth tax would raise 15 trillion in funding for Our Dear Leaders. Think of all the good they could do with that funding!!!
Care to guess what the total public and private u.s. debt is?
$60 Trillion
Tell me again how wealthy everyone is.
Waiter at Olive Garden has High Yield at a buy so I'm sticking with that.
Well La-dee-da. The waitress at Waffle House living in a No Doc Mortgaged 100% home worth $500K not good enough for financial advice. You .001 Percenters and your better than thou attitudes.
That sounds good. Makes me want to go out and buy a house that has doubled in price since 2012. Double in price in 3 years, sounds like a reasonable rate of growth to expect on houses. I doubt there is any bubble.
/s
I'm thinking about a NINJA loan on a really useless partyboat. Gonna be THE place to be all summer long at the lake. Y'all come on out to the Redneck Yachtclub!
Damned reality keeps interfering with their (h)opium habit.....
the bull market ended. not kidding.
i think high-yield is screaming 2 things right now:
1. oil is heading lower
2. if the fed raises rates, bond markets fucked
Commercial Banking for Idiots
You cannot see anything at the aggregate level, but derivatives of individual behavior aggregated. The Fed looks at noise, and sees whatever it wants to see, reinforcing itself, as do most individuals, and therefore assumes that it sees the economy. You are still hearing media experts stating that the economy is 75% consumption, and therefore consumption must be subsidized with financial policy, which is an incredibly stupid statement, parroted by all the participating consumers.
Peer pressure, what public education teaches as an organizing principle, to maintain the status quo, is a passive enterprise, which is why empires are passive, and run by passive aggressive sociopaths. War is just the ultimate misdirection, which changes nothing. All participants compete for something for nothing, creating artificial scarcity, which can only end in war, which never ends. What has changed in the Middle East, over thousands of years, but the names of the corporations?
You still hear financial experts stating that debt works, on the assumption that labor can be replaced by machines, and the middle class working for debt is still in frenzy about being replaced by machines, designed and built by people who have never worked a day in their lives, graduating from University as experts in the process. Net, all participants are passive investors in a top-down empire that is simply distributing debt, which intelligent labor, which is becoming incredibly scarce as a result, will not accept, and the bloggers have the audacity to pretend that they are somehow on labor’s side, defining labor for the purpose.
The Fed and Congress have completely disabled bottom-up business development, on the assumption that scale is what wins wars, which are never won. The banks aren’t banks. They are simply arbitrary debt distributors, seeking a return on no work, and getting it, real estate inflation. Living standards have been falling steadily, despite all the talk, on a platform built for the purpose, yet the line of reasoning remains the same. Somehow passive investment, which created the situation, is going to be the solution, if we just hire the right politician.
There is bridge between where the economy is and where it must go, and all the critters are at an abutment, the wrong one, bidding up the price of real estate, expecting a solution, hoping others will die building the bridge for them, calling the result economic activity. Community banks, the proffered solution some time ago, still use the same parameters as TBTF banks, loans on sunk cost real estate and credit reports on empire debt as income.
So, you have a job 600 miles away. You need gas, a hotel, equipment rental and more tools. Further, the issue is recurring. Call it recurring business expense, call it a line of credit, call recurring reimbursables, call it whatever you want. Are you going to put your children’s home up for collateral to build a bridge for other people to increase tax on your children? Are you going to pay 200% interest to the loan sharks? Or, are you going to let the critters kill each other, until they choose to wake up?
FDR didn’t solve anything. Empire has been kicking the can down a dead end road for thousands of years, with the likes of JPM and Goldman, hiring salespeople to gather their family’s income, and invest in more of the same. Blaming JPM and Goldman only serves to change the name on the corporation. Thousands of years, and all participants are pointing at other participants as the problem, promising change.
Tall Paul does know banking better than the others, but none of them are labor, nor are the denizens being defined as labor. Labor doesn’t work for Uber.
World War 2 ended the great depression. It will take WW3 to end this one.
Well, we should thank our friend Vlad Putin who has sown the seeds of WWIII - I'm starting to see green shoots already I think!
While I agree that we'll probably see a war before this is over, I disagree that it will get us out of a depression. The consumption of scarce resources to build war materiel then ship it half way around the world and blow it up along with 400,000 of our young and productive didn't get us out of the depression. A return to normal commerce after years of rationing, pent up capital and deferred demand did that. War will be used to promote a meme of "shared" sacrifice while the usual suspects hedge for the pivot.
so tomorrow, is bad news bad, or is it good? My guess is a sub 100k print and 5.3 percent... That should give Algos a transitor ache.
Deleted double post
10yr up 11pts or 4.85% to 2.38 is a rate collapse?
bond collapse maybe but rates are going up, up and up!
Yellen is soon behind the curve ball and her hand forced
Insured unemployment rate fell to 1.6%, which I think is an all-time low. With continuing claims dropping only 30k, something else had to go up - and that's full time work. Expect a big jump in that number tomorrow.