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Turkish Lira Plunges As Landmark Election Portends Political Uncertainty
In an election that was, essentially, a litmus test for Recep Tayyip Erdogan's plans to expand his powers, voters dealt the Turkish President and his Justice and Development Party (A.K.P.) a stinging blow at the ballot box on Sunday.
With 99% of the vote tallied, A.K.P appeared to have lost its parliamentary majority, winning only around 40% of the vote, a steep decline from 2011.
The results likely mean the party will have around 260 seats in parliament, down from 327. A difficult coalition building effort will now ensue and Erdogan can call for new elections if a government isn't formed within 45 days.
What this means for political and social instability remains to be seen.
More color from The New York Times:
Almost immediately, the results raised questions about the political future of Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who moved to that position from that of foreign minister last year and was seen as a loyal subordinate of Mr. Erdogan. Mr. Davutoglu, who during the campaign vowed to resign if the A.K.P. did not win a majority, told reporters on Sunday evening in brief comments, “whatever the people decide is for the best.” Mr. Davutoglu was due to speak later in the evening in Ankara.
Mr. Erdogan, who as president was not on the ballot Sunday, will probably remain Turkey’s dominant political figure even if his powers have been rolled back, given his outsized personality and his still-deep well of support among Turkey’s religious conservatives, who form the backbone of his constituency. But even among those supporters, including ones in Kasimpasa, the Istanbul neighborhood where Mr. Erdogan spent part of his youth, there are signs that his popularity is flagging, partly because of his push for more powers over the judiciary and his crackdown on any form of criticism, including prosecutions of those who insult him on social media.
“A lot of people in Kasimpasa have become disheartened by Erdogan’s aggressive approach in recent weeks,” said Aydin, 77, who gave only his first name because some of his family members are close to Mr. Erdogan. “I voted for the A.K.P. because it has become habit, but I think Erdogan lost votes this week.”
And here's Barclays on the implications going forward:
So far, a single party government in Turkey has generally been perceived as a source of stability by the market and reaction to election results confirming such continuity has generally been positive. However, this perception seems to have somewhat evolved recently. Particularly, foreign investors sound less uncomfortable with a coalition government scenario on the basis of improvement in checks and balances, whereas local investor perception is more negative.
In our view, local markets could trade poorly for an extended period should the election confirm a coalition government. First, it is still uncertain whether AKP would be able to attract support from MHP or HDP relatively swiftly and smoothly. While MHP stands as a natural coalition partner on the face of it, given the overlap in broader ideologies, the party’s disagreement with President Erdogan on many fronts and its reservations about the Kurdish peace process will likely make coalition process less straightforward. Indeed, MHP vice president Zuhal Topcu yesterday ruled out a coalition with AKP, accusing the party of making concessions to “terrorists” in an interview with Bloomberg. On the HDP front, external support for an AKP government seemed more likely than a coalition, given the sensitivities of both parties’ voter base.
However, HDP officials recently ruled out external support to an AKP government.
We think coalition negotiations could add another layer of uncertainty to the structure and focus of economic management, with which foreign investors already have concerns.
Underscoring Barclays commentary, the lira just hit a record low against the dollar:
- TURKISH LIRA PLUNGES 3.3% TO RECORD LOW 2.7523 AGAINST DOLLAR
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Whatever is bad for the monied class is good for the people.
OMG! This will usher instability to the Middle East!
Erdogan is a US stooge.
Greece, then Turkey.
The Black Sea and the Aegean.
"...Erdogan is a US stooge..."
A corrupt, psychopathic criminal stooge. And he's not even that good at the 'stooge' part.
Putin should start an Arab Spring uprising in Turkey and put in his own stooge. The U.S. does it all over the world, so I guess it's king of legal and all.
Good God... I can't think of anything ON EARTH that would piss off the neocons and Israeli-firster congress in the U.S. more than being out-maneuvered by Putin in Turkey.
Think of all the bribes and influence the U.S. would lose in the Middle East if that fucker Erdogan got Gaddafied! That would screw up the whole U.S. world-empire-thing in the worst way. ISIS would disappear and there would be about a quarter billion Shia looking to kick some Gulf States' ass. I would fork over anything to see that on pay per view.
Yes P1V
Worse than that he's got 5/6 faces to suit.
Notice how he refused to assist Ally's in fight against Isis on the Syrian/Turkish border in the Kurdish Town only being persuaded late on after massacres. Well if your allowing Isis/Al Nusrah to train and receive weapons then why fight them?
Turkey and Israel are the main recipients of that Iraqi ( Isis/Kurdish ) black market oil.
How does Putin deal with this CUNT? Makes me suspicious.
Yeah, that sentiment really worked well for the Russian Revolution, didn't it?
Think China.
Are those Erdogan supporters the same folks who imported the Slavic's and the Kaffa ( Ethiopian Kefi ) Slaves from the Crimean Tatar Muslims in Khazaria with financing from the Zionists?
Who?
Type in my words Mr knukles if you're half interested. Or maybe clearer explanation of Turkish- Crimean history will be forthcoming from someone more learned than myself.
The Capital of Tatarstan is deep inside Russia...not Turkey.
"Kurdistan" is no mere "wedge issue" either.
Turkey did not support Gulf War II and are the most notable supporters of ISIS.
And lest folks forget the people of New York were slaughtered by Egyptians, Saudi's and Kuwaitis...if we believe in the official party line.
(If we don't then why not support Saudi Arabia et al, yes?)
In the meantime Yemen is being mercilessly pounded and starved by the "religious brethren."
Be nice to know where that fits into the "greater good." Not sure if I'm the now deposed President I'd want to go back to "my former country."
Meanwhile back in Israel...
Are you seriously trying to attribute the actions of the Crimean Khanate to the current population of Turkey? You seem to live in "logical fallacy" land, son.
Turkey was the major benefactor of the Slavic and African Trade via the Crimean Muslim Tatars in Khazaria.
I'm pointing out the connection therein and how NO CUNT should trust the filthy Turks as they have 6 faces.
If Putin has a deal with Turkey the condition should be to stop allowing the US/UK training camps and arms supplies to Syria.
You know next to nothing about me or how i live SON.
My Q still stands, son... are you seriously trying to attribute the actions of the Crimean Khanate to the current population of Turkey?
...also, I love how you just described yourself as a cunt. Outstanding! :-D
Yes, Erdogan's Turkey , lets say the 51-55% who support this dictator are the same ancestral stock/clans who participated as the end buyer of Slaves.
They colluded with Khazarian Tatar and Jewish financiers in a brutal tri-partnership.
Erdogan and his conservative tribal leaders still have the slave master mentality as witness the tear gas heavy handedness of any dissent in the country.
Witness Turkey's participation in the civil war in Syria in collaboration with Israel and Sunni Muslims and US/UK.
Meanwhile he refuses to recognise Kurdish rights in Turkey but enables US/UK to support Kurds in Iraq where Israel buys cheap oil; coincidence?
Then he partners Russia on a Pipeline Project despite involvement with terrorists attacking Syria, Russia's Ally.
If you are unable to grasp the duplicitous character of Erdogan and his Old empire ambitions then fair enough.
Lastly i said no cunt can trust this criminal psychopath and the Conservative Tribal Slave Masters they aspire to return too.
Russia outlawed the Slavic Slave Trade and booted out the Crimean Tatar and the Tripartite Khazarian menage et trois, who disbanded to among other places, Turkey, their main trading partner.
In addition to my answer to you below the Muslim Tatars and Zionists (or money lenders if you prefer financed the trade ) in Khazaria delivered the slaves ( Slavic & African ) to Turkey.
The Russians booted them out and outlawed Slavic slave Trade.
If Israel believes a new kingdom in old Khazaria is the goal, which has been touted in a couple of posts on Z/H recently then history repeats full circle.
Or reading between the lines the battle for Ukraine and Crimea has further significance to the long term picture.
40% of the votes, wow? It is beyond me how Turkish sheeple still voting for this guy's party.
See Obama, Barack, circa 2012. Ask the same question. Blind faith, arrogance and stupidity I believe is the answer.
Well, chalked up some political uncertainty in North Carolina on Saturday:
And if you are a dyed in the wool conservative Republican, or even unaffiliated, you won in style in Raleigh at the Republican State Convention. The Establishment lost and lost big time, whether they will admit it, or even realize it, or not. Here's how one of the people most responsible for the GOP revolt (Brant Clifton) put it:
So the Turkish Deep State is so fearful of Erdo?an's throwing in his lot with the party of freedom and prosperity under Putin's Russia that they oversaw ballot-box stuffing in favour of a party committed to the dismemberment of Turkey in favour of a Kurdish state with no hope of being viable or even governable without military assistance from Uncle Sugar.
At least they can still rig elections.
Really? The Kurds just won an absolute majority? Shocking indeed...
Turkey is a shitpot looking to cook some shit stew.
Turdogan
I congratulate the Turkish people for their vote against extending the power of the presidency.
But I wonder, if Erdogan hadn't displayed attitudes that are so negative toward the Jewish persecution of Palestinians, would so much of the media have been so critical of the "Imperial Presidency" and Erdogan in particular?
Party of anti-Israel Erdogan loses majority in Turkish parliament
June 7, 2015 3:56pm(JTA) — The political party of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has lost its ruling majority in parliament, apparently setting back the anti-Israel leader’s bid to gain sweeping powers.
With most of the votes counted in Sunday’s election, the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, had about 41 percent of the vote with projections of about 256 seats, some 20 less than needed for single-party rule. AKP has been the sole party in power since its founding 12 years ago.
Erdogan, who for years has spewed anti-Israel rhetoric, reportedly wanted to change the country’s constitution to garner more power.
Turkey-Israel ties have taken a major hit since the 2010 Mavi Marmara incident, when nine Turkish pro-Palestinian activists were killed after Israeli naval commandos stormed the ship with which they were attempting to break Israel’s Gaza blockade.
The main secular opposition Republican Peoples Party, or CHP, was at about 25 percent of the vote, while the nationalist MHP was at about 16.5 percent. The pro-Kurdish left-wing Peoples’ Democracy Party, or HDP, won 12.8 percent, for the first time passing the 10 percent electoral threshold necessary to join the parliament. Its participation in the government is expected to affect the power of the ruling coalition.
A day before the vote, Erdogan told a rally in the eastern province of Ardahan that “Jewish capital” was behind The New York Times.
“It’s clear who their patrons are. There is Jewish capital behind it, unfortunately,” Erdogan said, the French news agency AFP reported.
I wonder what Erdogan is doing. EU is closed for Turkey, NATO is weak incompetent and act against Turkish national interest of peace with Russia and China. They have huge army strong enough to defeat even US when it comes to it.
What national interest of Turkey are there to submit to US madness and EU fascist impotence? None.
So Mr. President make peace with Greece and Russia withdraw from useless NATO join cooperation with Iran and China and forget Washington neocons who are trying for three years now to overthrow your government and involved you with another neocon instigated war in Syria.
Everybody is jumping the titanic including Saudis so should you for sake of your nation.
If you are anything of political, national statue like Ataturk you would do it. Since future belongs to East.
It would be easy if it was not for Washington funded MIC run mafia entrenched within Turkish society.
Still way too many votes. Those 40% are fucking stupid
election is fake anyway
its all arranged
I haven't been there for decades but I'm pretty sure Turkey, along with Croatia has some of the nicest beaches in Europe. It's always been half on my radar to check out a cheap place to rent for a while, but not until the political situation becomes clearer. The more the lira goes down, the more buying power but no point in throwing cash away.