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First Fed Rate Hike Timing Expectations Plunge To Lowest In 5 Years
Thanks to Friday's "good" news, the (non-equity) market has priced in just 5.86 months until the first Fed rate hike - this is now the soonest expected level for 'tightening' since April 2010...
and judging by stocks since Friday morning, the gap between fundamentals and stock prices are starting to converge...
As The Fed's "confidence-inspiring" wealth-effect appears to have broken...
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If stocks discount six-months forward... bulls may have a problem
Charts: Bloomberg
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they will NEVER raise rates
Wrong. Game plan is to pop the rate 0.5% and then, even though we have the best economy in 5,000 years, it tanks giving those in power the go ahead to take the rates negative.
Again... THE FERAL RESERVE WILL RAISE RATES NO MATTER WHAT!
When?
June 15th
they will raise
banks and corporations will die
some banks will survive and scoop the chips
you know which banks
Raise rates-yes, now-no. They'll wait till it can cause the most damage to the most people. After all, that's the FED way....
they will raise and the market will realize that net negative rates dont matter
I take the 3rd option. I predict they raise rates sooner and much faster than anyone is prepared for Why not? It's not like they need to hide or anything. After all they have exhausted their tools to suppress rates longer.
If Yellen has to play catch up with the market, then she's lost control and soon after they will lose the currency.
The primary effect of raising rates is to attract capital to where the rates have been raised. There is of course no need to attract capital since the Fed prints infinite amounts of money for the banks to distribute (or pocket) at their whim.
Secondary effects of raising rates include a decline in the value of leveraged assets and leveraged income streams.
I dunno. Not saying you're wrong. My predictions have been consistently off when I tried the reasonable approach. Anything is possible with TPTB. Who would have suspected they keep rates this low for so long? Who thought they would discontinue QE and the economy really picked up regardless?
i think the primary intention of raising rates is to crush debtors so that creditors can take the collateral
they have our whole economy cornered into thinking that raising is unavoidable, not a choice, so they dont appear predatory in doing so
They'll raise right after QE18
Imagine what higher rates will do to the interest on the debt, so no, they won't raise rates.
Your side of the boat is fuller than ever. The barber and the paper boy were telling me exactly what you're thinking. Nobody expects a rate hike or even that they can ever raise rates. If this keeps up, the Fed has lost control as they're trailing behind and doing what everyone already knows
Your statement seems to presume that the US government controls the banksters.
But I ask you sir, what if the banksters intend to throw the US government under the bus this time around?
Good Point!
I almost agree 100%. However, you never know with these scumbags are up to. I'm sure the crooks are prepared to make big gains when things go to shit should they actually raise rates.
Thanks to Friday's "good" news, .......
ahahaha
In 100 years US population will not even understand that the FED can, and at one time "did" raise rates!!! It will be an idea from the past, no longer implemented, like candles to light rooms at night.
Yellen looks more and more like a muppet each and every day!!!
So, did they ask them how many months before the Fed slams it back to zero again after that first rate hike?
No, they did not. Nobody wants to ask hard questions any more. I would have asked that question.
Tokens are accepted. Token rate hikes, that is.
If the Fed did anything unexpected at this point it would be a disaster. If they raised the Fed Funds rate by 5 bps at the June meeting the Dow would be off by 1500 points in 2 days.
what if the central bank owners are crazy enough to believe that they can control the global financial system by working out of Hong Kong/Shanghai more effectively than they have been doing in New York and London? Would they really give a shit about the Dow then?
Shouldn't high income earners relish the prospect of a rate hike given they are largely the "rentiers" we've been trying to "euthanise" with ZIRP?
No, because it turns any of their existing fixed income assets to jello.
Let them eat jello.
High income earners make their money on assets like the stock market and real estate, not bonds and savings.
"If stocks discount six-months forward... bulls may have a problem"
The 2001 recession ended in November, 2001. Stocks kept falling for close to another year. So much for stocks discounting six months forward.
The system is broken, they'll never raise rates. Next up- negative rates, the banks will be charging you to deposit your money in an account. What a mess. Thanks to the Federal Reserve... Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen.
And in 5 months it will drop to 5.84 ..... and in 5 months after that, it will drop to 5.81 and in 5 months.....
And this "hike" that they speak of....
Does everyone assume it will be a 25 bps "hike"?
What if it is 10 bps. or even 5 bps?
It's a long way to 2.40%, if it's 5 bps at a time.....
"Fuck my victims."
"The whole government is a Ponzi scheme."
- Bernie Madoff
Nice to see you get on a computer once and a while over at Club Fed. Knowing Corzine is free and still running around scamming people must drive you crazy.
I'm so tired of playing checkers with Ken Lay.
Will the FRBNY and Kevin Henry, buy up the S&P 500 as well?
Bought all the Bond, bought all the MBS, been buying the S&P mini futures since Oct 2011.
What will they buy next?
Ben Bern anke is not far enough away for them to raise rates.
There will be some ridiculously contrived event to cloak the rate increase.
911 2.0.
I think they will get Barry out of the WH before they trigger the collapse.
It doesn't matter whether he's in or out. The grand charade is lving on borrowed time.
Greece now kicking the debt can into 2016. What a farce.
The last tool of the FEDERAL RESERVE- bullshit spewing from our mouths in cleverly choreographed meetings. One day, this bullshit will end.
When they say "raise rates", what they really mean is, "launch QE 4".
FED-SPEAK!
Bulls? What does a Bull look like?
Like this: http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/fcm360-introduces-cloud-trader--...
??
The markets are headed down. Naturally the Fed will choose such a moment to make the first hike...
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/dow-jones-industrial-averageelliott-w...
I still stand by my belief that if the Fed is in anyway still interested in sustaining this bull market they will continue to full normalization from taper.
Certainly taper hasn't hurt the market.
I still think they're lying about being serious about fighting inflation though and will not raise rates for like...forever.
...this is now the soonest expected level for 'tightening' since April 2010...
What is that some kind of sick joke?
By the time rates are anywhere near 'normal' (I guess the term 'normal' might itself be up for debate now...), it is possible that it won't matter anyway. After all, what is the necessity other than to secure confidence in the $USD as prime currency for global trade?
The economy is make-believe now. If they pretend to have an over-heated economy then they need to raise rates. That's the way the Fed does it. The fact that we are actually in a depression does not matter because the Fed can't see it. If they don't raise rates the Fed will have to answer the question: "why are you not raising rates with the unemployment rate so low and stocks bubbling."?
Facts and data no longer matter, managed perception is all that does. If they pretend the economy is alive, people will believe it long after the stench of it's rotting corpse fills the air.
It is strange what we will believe.
That said I'll be shocked if they raise rates...cuz even the Fed can't be that deluded....can they?
they have to raise rates to give savers some spending power. think grandmas CD, on which she has earned nothing for 8 years while they saved the banks.
do i think the economy justifies it? no.
but it might be what saves the economy. they just wont admit it.
first of all you'd need quite an interest rate in order to make money off of it or massive amounts of cash stashed in your bank with under par interest rates. That's one. Flipside is, if the interest rates are raised then loans become more expensive. Given the amount of debt in the system and who sits on the cash I am pretty sure there would be a default on laons all over the place. Ofcourse, raising rates would purge much of the shitty debt and malinvestments out there and give the economy a fresh start but that too would take like forever! Though it would be a start for the better.
Why am I even writing this...this is like childhood stuff in finance.
Fed Res won't raise rates this year. Maybe next, but that's a big maybe.
Just got a 0% 18 months offer for balance transfers from none other than Capital One. It's on one of three accounts I have, and I haven't used it in two years because it has an interest rate and all the rest of my CCs are 0%.
So, if "what's in your wallet" is beginning to get on the 0% bandwagon, it's a good bet that the federal funds rate won't be anywhere near 1% until 2017, and, as for "normalizing" rates, well, think Japan.
The FEDs only constitutional protection is in authorized US Treasury minted coin... We know what was released to the public, but what are they really holding?
As to the other parts of the US conmstitution, it could be argued that it is treasonable to hold a zero interest rate and have an expanding money supply. I'm not going to comment on the FED and the Treasury's relationship, as so many of you have.
Buy gold coin, pre-1913