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A Mysterious Death Raises Questions In Russia





Intrigues within the Kremlin reignited Monday after the chief of Russia's military intelligence service, Igor Sergun, died unexpectedly. Sergun was a relatively unknown figure who kept a very low profile over his 30-year career, despite the fact that his position at the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) of the General Staff of the Armed Forces made him one of the most powerful figures in Russian security.

 
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Yes, The ECB Chief Economist Really Said It: "If You Print Enough Money, You Always Get Inflation. Always."





And with that we can finally close the book on slippery central bank semantics on what precisely it is that they do, and what it is they plan to achieve.

 
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WTI Crude Plunges To $34 Handle After Record Gasoline Inventory Build





Following last night's API-reported large draw in overall crude inventories (year-end and exports driven), DOE reports a 5.09mm draw (more than expectations of a 4.1mm draw but less than API's 5.6mm draw). However, Cushing inventories rose for the 9th week in a row (+917k) and more troubling for the future is gasoline inventories soared 10.58mm barrels - an all-time record (and distillates rose 6.31mm barrels). Crude prices already gave up their API gains and are tumbling back below $35 on this build news.

 
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Things That Make You Go Boom: U.S. Spending On Military Aircraft Surges Most Since September 11





Now that the subprime-funded "growth dynamo" that kept the US economy chugging along over the past year has finally choked, as we saw yesterday when auto sales posted the weakest print in half a year, there is just one industry that is keeping US factory orders, which have already declined for 13 consecutive months, from an all out implosion. War.

 
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US Factory Orders Deep In Recession - Tumble YoY For 13th Month In A Row





US factory orders have never dropped this far for so long without the US economy overall being in recession. November's 4.2% YoY drop is the 13th consecutive monthly drop. Revistions to durable goods data shows a 1% drop in new orders ex-defense in November after rising 1.4% in October.. and as a reminder, this data was buoyed by a 46.9% surge in defense aircraft and parts orders to all-time highs. Traders better hope for moar war or the reality of the economy will peak out from behind the military-industrial complex veil.

 
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New Gallup Poll – Americans Consider Government A Much Bigger Problem Than Guns





"In the same Gallup survey that listed 'dissatisfaction with government' as the top concern for each of the past two years, 'guns/Gun control' was considered 'the most important problem' by 2 percent of respondents, about the same who listed “lack of respect for each other” and pollution.'

 
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Manufacturing Leads, Services Follow: ISM Collapses To Weakest Since March 2014 As "Pace Of Hiring" Slows





As goes US manufacturing, so goes US services. In a narrative-crushing print, US Services PMI dropped to 54.3 - the lowest since January 2015. Output and New business growth slumped to 11-month lows, optimism dropped, and input cost inflation continued to moderate as "suggests the pace of hiring has slowed since earlier in the year as businesses have become more cautious." Then, confirming  this plunge, ISM Services printed 55.3 - its lowest since March 2014 as unadjusted new orders collapsed to their lowest since February 2014.

 
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Revisiting The Greatest Crash In History





All we can do is point out the risks, so that people can at least prepare on an individual level. A major lesson everybody should take to heart from the Cyprus experience is this: when the next crisis strikes, do not believe any of the promises uttered by government or central bank officials. You will be lied to in the critical moments, and you could stand to lose a lot if you believe the lies.

 
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US Equity Collapse Erases All Post-QE3 Gains As FANTAsy Stocks Plunge





But, but, but... it's not a market-driven only by The Fed, right?

 
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Dear Mark Zandi... Please Explain This





If Mark Zandi and his "whatever it takes" seasonal-adjusters at ADP are to be believed, the US manufacturing sector added the most jobs in 11 months in December. Our question is simple - with ISM Manufacturing Employment at post-recession lows and US Manufacturing PMIs at post-recesssion lows, and inventories-to-sales ratios at post-recession highs, why are goods-producers hiring at such a frantic pace?

 
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Apple Tumbles To ETFlash Crash Levels, Saved (For Now) By Another Tim Cook Hail Mary Announcement





Apple's shares broke below $100 in pre-market trading as analyst downgrades and further component producer outlook reductions weighed heavily on the "no brainer." It appears increasingly likely that Tim Cook's "rescue" email to Cramer on August was perhaps not the entire truth.. and the market is trading back to levels it first crossed in August 2014 (i.e. unchanged in 16 months). Of course, amid this carnage this morning, AAPL attempted to save the day and issued a quick statement proclaiming January 1st as the biggest App Store spending day in history... for now the stock is not excited about that.

 
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Chipotle December Sales Collapse; Reports Receipt Of FDA Subpoena, New Stock Buyback





And the hits just keep on coming. In a double-whammy for investors hoping to catch Chipotle's falling-knife, the mexican fast-food restaurant reports a 30% collapse in same-store-sales for December and receiving a grand jury subpoena with regard the California Norovirus event. The stock crashed 10% on the news.  However, the stock's initial collapse has been rescued as CMG reports a boost to its buyback program... seriously!

 
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Trade Deficit Improves In November Despite Trade Slowdown, As "Exports Decrease Less Than Imports"





The US November Trade deficit printed at $42.4 billion, down from $44.6 billion in October and better than the $44.0 billion consensus expectation. However, instead of suggesting on overall improvement, the only reason the deficit improved is because as the BEA admitted, "exports decreased less than imports", in other words, both decreased. Specifically, imports fell 1.7% in Nov. to $224.59b from $228.36b in Oct, while exports fell 0.9% in Nov. to $182.21b from $183.78b in Oct. A key driver was another decline in petroleum imports which fell $262 million to a total of $10.7 billion courtesy of the drop in oil prices.

 
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ADP Payrolls Soar To Highest Since 2014, Zandi Sees "Return To Full Employment By Mid-Year"





Great news right? For those hoping for some "bad news is good news to slow The Fed down" data, ADP is a disappointment. The December monthly change was a rise of 257k - hugely better than the expected 198k and th ebiggest rise since December 2014. Most importantly the goods-producing sector added a shocking 23,000 jobs - despite every single manufacturing indicator deep in recession. Service-sector jobs added 234k.

 
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