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S&P500 On The Verge Of Breaching An All-Important Support Level

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Over the past 3 years, the only support level that has mattered for the S&P500 was the 100 Day Moving Average: every single time the S&P has approached, or breached, this trendline, the result has been a bout of buying pushing it right above, and keeping it in the clearly visible upward channel since 2012.

The S&P is now just a few points away from breaching the 100 DMA again.

 

As BofA notes, since 2012, corrective declines have based in the area of the 100 DMA with 2 exceptions. The bank adds that while it hopes the selling stabilizes around the 100 DMA, "a sustained break below the 100 DMA would expose the 200D at 2045.85 before renewed basing potential. Back above the 2121.92 high high says the correction is over, with a break of 2134.72 confirming a resumption of the long term uptrend."

 

BofA is bullish, and expects the S&P to target 2,200/2,250. We, on the other hand, are less so, especially since as noted over the weekend, last week we just saw a massive, 28-year upward trendline breached for the first time in Exxon Mobil stock, the world's second largest company by market cap.

The S&P may be next.

 

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Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:19 | 6174593 Four chan
Four chan's picture

meh the ppt will be buying futures en mass shortly. btfd

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:22 | 6174602 whotookmyalias
whotookmyalias's picture

If you draw your support line where you want it, you can make it look like indisputable proof of your theory.

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:29 | 6174629 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

It'll prolly bounce from here

But I'm down-arrowing all you BTFDip-tards anyway.

The 125 DMA is more like support anyway

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:30 | 6174652 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Well the BTFDip-tards are fat and happy, so down vote away.  But you will be right at some point.

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 13:46 | 6175025 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Who's to say if this is it but I'm watching the 2080 area. It just dropped through and so far SPY is a net seller so the PPT hasn't arrived. If it closes below support tomorrow will be s good day for a flash crash position. Too bad it's Monday. Weeklies are much cheaper on Thursdays

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:32 | 6174663 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

Broke the wedge/flag line.

 

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SPY

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:45 | 6174718 NoVa
NoVa's picture

Since "1987" TM 

I was getting tired of that Since Lehman reference

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:52 | 6174762 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Historical trend line...shit that happened in the past that is more important than what happened today. This is merely a justification to make a questionable bet based on past questionable bets.....

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 13:40 | 6175004 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Headbanger- I thought it was the 127 day MA.  Or possibly the 132 day MA.

In any case, I seriously doubt we'll breach the 9145 day moving average.  There is very strong support there.

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:29 | 6174643 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

Seems to me that the markets are taking the Greece Crapola a little more seriously this time.  What do they know that I don't?  I have been an undisciplined BTFD'er for the few years now where any dip was bought.  Have become a little more cautious now.

Tue, 06/09/2015 - 13:07 | 6174856 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Sad. Seems you can easily be controlled by TPTB without even a verbal request. Scary that people have become such lapdogs to the staus quo....

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:31 | 6174654 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

So we get the "Depends Moment" when we break 2080 on the way down?   With the horrible fear that we might go another 1.5% further down to 2050?   What a fucking joke.  

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:20 | 6174595 unionbroker
unionbroker's picture

support levels trend lines wtf are those?

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:20 | 6174599 madbraz
madbraz's picture

Any mention of the likes of Bofa is enough to make me not read any further

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:23 | 6174614 Usurious
Usurious's picture

 

 

I think a retest of 666 is in order.......

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:28 | 6174640 madbraz
madbraz's picture

unless dudley and company signed up for crochet lessons this week, it ain't happening.

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:30 | 6174645 henry chucho
henry chucho's picture

To better reflect the seasonal disparity in the numbers,we have now determined that there are,in fact,110 days in the 100 DMA..BLS

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:35 | 6174672 Itch
Itch's picture

"BofA is bullish, and expects the S&P to target 2,200/2,250. We, on the other hand, are less so"

 

ZH sounding mildly bullish there, it must be time. Yikes.

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:46 | 6174732 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Piffle, 100ma is for trading, 200ma is for economics, but what I think we've determined is that's just how the Fed is playing it.

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 13:06 | 6174827 CarpetShag
CarpetShag's picture

none of the MAs mean dick except to the algos.

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:48 | 6174744 ForWhomTheTollBuilds
ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

The central bankers are aware of this which is why it either won't be allowed to happen or will be quickly corrected with a smash buy to eliminate the negative signal.

 

Just think of the S&P as "the inverse gold" as far as Technical Analisys goes.  No "wrong" signals will be allowed to stand.

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 12:59 | 6174788 CarpetShag
CarpetShag's picture

The only validation ever presented for all this TA bullshit is that "traders believe in them".

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 13:07 | 6174830 Arthur Schopenhauer
Arthur Schopenhauer's picture

The stock markets remind me of rats and cheese. Some days you get to eat a little cheese and some days you are the cheese.

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 13:24 | 6174911 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Volume doesn't seem to be there for an extended SPY move past the 100 MA, but I suppose slow burn down days have happened (long ago, pre-QE)

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 14:28 | 6175230 FreeShitter
FreeShitter's picture

Que fed spokesman 1...2.....3

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 14:34 | 6175271 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Did the Fed run out of steam yet?

All that FIAT sure isn't burning very efficiently.

 

 

Who wants to bet that by Wednesday next week we will hit new record highs accross the board? ^^ . . . 18900++ 

http://cdn.techtage.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/joker-burning-money.jpg

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 15:18 | 6175289 Seal
Seal's picture

did u see XOM up almost 1% at one point today!

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 15:09 | 6175495 fremannx
fremannx's picture

Both the DOW and the S&P 500 broke trend line support last week as this update of the Dow shows...

 

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/dow-jones-industrial-averageelliott-w...

 

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 16:20 | 6175823 theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

So don't be surprised when everyone who did as the Fed asked, asks for their own personal bailout.

-Oh, and refuses to buy back the junk they offloaded.

Mon, 06/08/2015 - 18:44 | 6176307 Herdee
Herdee's picture

Aren't the traders at Treasuries' Trading Desk going to hold it up?

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