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You Don't See This Every Day...
Day in, and day out, American investors are bombarded with bloviation on how the American economy is leading the world (and that's why you need to buy moar stocks). The only problem is... it's a lie, as the following chart clarifies.
Pent-up GDP growth?
h/t @RBS_Economics
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does japan not get snow in the winter?
Yes. But it's radioactive. So it melts quickly.
Never, ever let facts get in the way of good propaganda
"Putchur hai-ynds on the CNBS sk-raeen an-duh Pray-ah!"
If we could just get a few of our GE Model 1 reactors to do what Japan did with theirs at Fukushima, we could post that barn burning 1% number, too.
I'm sure Krugman would agree.
Mushroom-Cloud-amatic.
Residual seasonality
.3%, .4% or even 1.0% are nothing to brag about.
Why do recession still exist? Didn't Keynes tell us we would be in a perpetual boom? I guess they weren't far off. We've only have a dozen or two recession since 1913.
The Keynesian experiment has failed. The largest credit bubble in history has overtaken the global economy and there is nothing the financial industry, governments or central banks can do about it... the bubble is burst ing and every economy in the world is about to get sucked into the deflationary vortex of the largest economic depression ever.
http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-r...
if the us 1st q gdp really was more like minus 1.5% with inventory adj and using true inflation deflator, can we assume the others are also overstated.
...and to think: these numbers are most likely inflated by about 50%...
50% as a minimum, but the sheep love it.....
Decoupling.
Frankly, I have no need to buy a damn thing. And if I do, I check out used second. I try to borrow first.
In a consumption based, manipulated economy, I've gone Galt.
You should, too, if you have not already. It's the only way to break the beast.
Yep, you have to separate needs from wants and I have very few needs and even less wants. I'm downright un-American....
You're making hilsenrath angry. You wouldn't like him when he's angry.
You're making hilsenrath angry. You wouldn't like him when he's angry.
Can I get you to talk to my wife?
You also want to frivolously waste government resources.
I've wondered about that at times. Will the government simply keep up the massive, "money printing" based expansion due to the higher "demand," or will they break some day? Cuba/Russia/N. Korea have been keeping it going for 50, or so, years. People live in squalor but the governments are going strong. Can you actually break them to the point where freedom and liberty are returned?
Yellen's wants are not my needs.
Yeah, but that US number needs to be quadruply seasonally adjusted.
Let's not forget that US inflation numbers are completely fake - so real US GDP is much, much lower:
Let's not forget that the Chapwood Index for 2014 was 9.7% and official CPI in the land of the free was only 0.8%. So the Nominal GDP of 5.6% for 2014 becomes real GDP of -4.1%.
The revised real GDP for years 2011 to 2013 worked out to -6.2%, -6.5%, -6.5% respectively.
What is the Chapwood Index?
"The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America. Updated and released twice a year, it reports the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-29/inaccurate-statistics-and-threa...
Great stuff, Thx for the link
Official CPI understated? Yeah right, next you're going to try to tell us the "official" unemployment numbers are fudged too.
Tylers should put that same article up again right now, today.
What does the group here think of the BPP (Billion prices project), as opposed to the Chapman or an older version a few years back called the ' Guild Basic Needs Index' from Monty Guild's outfit...?
Does that chart take into account the currency volatility?
someone needs to call Steve LIESman....
Call him what...an asshole?
Japan must have an election coming up soon.....they always go up right before the election..to fool the people that everything is OK
"Revealed: S&P 500 companies are saying they make BILLIONS more than they actually do so they can rake in investments despite net losses
One-fifth of companies report 'adjusted profits' that are higher than their actual net income by more than 50 per cent
From 2010 through 2014, figures for S&P 500 were adjusted up $583billion
Medical device manufacturer Boston Scientific and aluminum company Alcoa both reported billions in profits despite net losses
One analyst says it is like a bomb no one can see has been placed under the market, but when it will go off is unknown "
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3117023/S-P-500-companies-saying...
Covered yesterday on ZH and on AP.
The next winner of The Noble Prize in Economic Sciences: Barack Obama!
US Q1 2015 real GDP (quarter over quarter)
-0.7% ... not -0.2%
http://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
what "Investors"?
Despite agreeing with the notion that the US economy is in rough shape, comparing countries GDP is pointless. GDP is so manipulated everywhere as to become entirely meaningless. ... and Japan? Seriously?
ha ha ha... "japan"... and the word "seriously"...
in the same sentence...ha ha ha... yes...
that's way too funny...
cue bob marley's 'redemption song'...
Exactly. What was it that the UK started to include in their GDP numbers last year - hookers and drug trafficking I believe it was. And I remember reading on ZH last year that Japan didn't like their GDP numbers so they redefined how to calculate (fudge) GDP. The numbers are a complete joke.
Such a dumb chart. There are lots of countries that have faster growth rates. What are we to conclude from that? Have you looked at Japan's growth over the last ten years? Things are just getting silly on here now.
help me out here, kids...
Japan Inc started cooking their books for 20+ years starting in the mid-eighties at the beginning of their record down turn-fuckup... and as a continuing artform - they only post a 1%...
then I look at that limp-dick little u.s. number, and I wonder if we're just stupid, retarded, or both...
god save the barcharts... please sir, I'd like some more...
will somebody please dish out another bowl of gruel to the hungry orphans of unrequited econometrics - they seem malnourished...
I assume those are all figures supplied by their respective governments? If so, do they all calculate their GDP in the same way? Even if they do, do they manipulate their economic figures as much as we know they do in the US?
I think comparing any government supplied economic figures that can't be independently verified is a completely useless endeavor regardless of what government is providing them.
Greed means never having to say your sorry...
Go Teams Americas, all yous competing interdependencies and no reconcilliatory organizationals!
1% growth in a zirp/nirp world is actually very good as far as the math goes. only the reality sucks.
Its not growth, its a number. That number doesnt take in to account a 20% drop in the Yen. So they killed their currency and still only got a 1% higher number then last year.
No growth anywhere, just numbers that no longer have the same value as last time. Like counting shrinking feet and measureing how many feet a thing is. Without fixed weights and measures you cant have science. Thats why economics will never be a science, only a con.
Japan's 1% growth is cancer!
Its not a too-mah.
of course these numbers are all lies --- none of these countries has + GDP