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Approaching The "Other" Parity: Greek Emergency Liquidity Surges After "Massive" Deposit Outflow

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While we await for Germany to deny the latest "Greece is fixed" report which came out moments ago according to which Merkel "may be satisfied with Greece committing to at least one economic reform sought by creditors to open the door to bailout funds" as Bloomberg reported earlier citing "two people familiar with Germany’s position" - a move which would be seen as Germany blinking to Greek demands and may well lead to Schauble's resignation if confirmed - below is a quick update of what is going on with Greek bank liquidity.

It is not good.

As the chart below shows, following last week's "massive" surge in Greek bank runs, which soared on Friday as pessimism returned with a bang that another "can kicking" deal may not get done after all, Greek Emergency Liquidity Assistance, or ELA, use soared by €2.3 billion according to Bloomberg, the single biggest weekly increase since February, rising to €83 billion. This, of course, is happening as Greek bank deposits continue their dramatic drop and which according to recent reports by Kathimerini had dipped under below €130 billion.

 

Which brings up the question of the "other" parity: while everyone has opined on when/if the EURUSD will hit 1.00, for Greece a far more relevant question is whether the ECB's generous ELA funding of insolvent Greek banks will reach parity with the amount of Greek deposits in the bank system.

Below is a chart showing the history of Greek ELA increases.

Keep a close eye on the weekly increases in this series because once the amount of ELA eclipses all Greek deposits, that may be the point when the ECB finally cuts its losses, and leaves the Greeks with the total "bail-in" wipeout.

 

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Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:08 | 6182756 knukles
knukles's picture

Who who's winning?  I still got the Greeks ahead by a payment missing without the EU/IMF/et al, paying Greece to pay themselves back.
Nah.  No defaults here!

                          Fraudulent Conveyance

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:13 | 6182779 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

** ALERT **

Watch out ZeroHedge commenters.  The DOJ could be coming for you.

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/the-government-wants-names-of-online-co...

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:28 | 6182840 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

ZeroHedgers do not utter threats, the just read, comment mildly, and have a hardy laugh.

 

 

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:35 | 6182871 agstacks
agstacks's picture

speaking of which, anyone heard from "Laws" recently?

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:56 | 6182900 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

Nope, don't know where he went.

Perhaps on holiday ?

 

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 13:29 | 6183075 balanced
balanced's picture

Using some very rough numbers and math... as of June 10th with Deposits at 130 Billion and ELA at 83 Billion. Assuming an average of 8.7 Billion per month of outflows (based on the numbers provided here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-18/greek-bank-deposit-outflows-spi...), and an average weekly ELA of 1.47 Billion (based on the chart above), the Deposits would fall below the ELA total in early to mid September.

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:39 | 6182890 indygo55
indygo55's picture

Sorry but I find it hard to believe that there is that much money in Greek banks. Why oh why would anyone trust Greek banks at this point? If they bail in the Greek banks then those who lose money have no one but themselves to blame. 

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 13:36 | 6183105 atomp
atomp's picture

Goop: Reading and laughing are next...

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:37 | 6182882 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Too bad the entire tyrannical police state can't accidentally slip and fall into a wood chipper!

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 13:26 | 6183064 mtl4
mtl4's picture

Nice they are having a good time making sure 1984 becomes a reality........common sense just isn't common anymore.

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 13:58 | 6183191 xcehn
xcehn's picture

"But it’s clear the government is monitoring comments online, at least when they affect powerful federal judges."

It's a safe bet they monitor all comments online, particularly from ZH, and that full-fledged surveillance is not far behind.

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:17 | 6182796 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

and you were expecting anything different?

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:18 | 6182799 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

The IMF better Cyprus that shit before Greeks liquidate all of their cash.

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:43 | 6182906 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

The Bank of Greece has had 10 days to publish the EOM May data (and they have known for 10 days exactly what that data is).

At the beginning of May MFI's only had 61.7 billion in demand deposits that could be withdrawn.

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:41 | 6182822 jimfcarroll
jimfcarroll's picture

In most of these Greek ELA articles ZH keeps saying "insolvent" but I think (I could be wrong) the ELA can't be used if the bank is actually insolvent.

It may become insolvent but someone still thinks it has a positive number at the bottom of its balance sheet (not that it will after a massive default).

So technically this is still a liquidity issue and not a solvency issue.

Though I'd love to see ZH do an analysis of Greek bank solvency but I haven't seen one yet.

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 13:06 | 6182990 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

A better speculation would be of ECB and BoJ solvency in my view.

 

If folks have a problem with Central Banking try those two on for size.

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 14:06 | 6183225 Marco
Marco's picture

"According to a nationwide survey conducted by E-Real Estates, during the first quarter of 2015 only 750 mortgage loans were granted, compared to 2,500 mortgage loans last year, 75,000 in 2009 and 120,000 in 2006. At the same time, in the first three months of 2015, a total of 1,800 properties were sold compared to 15,000 in 2014 and more than 165,000 in 2004."

http://greece.greekreporter.com/2015/05/12/250-000-unsold-properties-in-...

So yeah ...

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:24 | 6182826 FrankDieter
FrankDieter's picture

The Greeks should loan the money to pay back the IMF, EU etc.

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:25 | 6182828 SpanishGoop
SpanishGoop's picture

"Merkel "may be satisfied with Greece committing to at least one economic reform sought by creditors to open the door to bailout funds""

Shows that the EU is run by Germany in one statement.

Thanks WWII liberators for not finishing the job completely.

 

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 13:45 | 6183138 harrybrown
harrybrown's picture

the zionist jews run germany since 1945, merkal just their commie puppet. Germany never officially surrended, Fact and Germny is still officially an occupied country, just like palestine. Like layers of an onion, keep peeling away to find the route causes of the world misery

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:34 | 6182860 two hoots
two hoots's picture

Is ZH suggesting the collateral provided for the ELA is depositor money?  If not what collateral is Greece providing or did the ECB waived the investment grade debt requirement?

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:38 | 6182888 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Why slaughter the cow while you're still getting milk.  I'll let you figure out who is who in this scenario.

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:45 | 6182910 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Don't the Greeks have German submarines that they can bargain with.

Wed, 06/10/2015 - 12:45 | 6182913 Lady Jessica
Wed, 06/10/2015 - 14:59 | 6183420 pebblewriter
pebblewriter's picture

Isn't it an amazing coincidence that the ECB announcements came out at precisely the same time (to the minute!) that SPX reached its 50-day moving average as well as the top of a rapidly falling price channel? 

http://pebblewriter.com/different-day-same-rigged-markets/

Isn't it even more amazing that this great news came on the very same day that USDJPY was walloped by Kuroda's announcement that "the yen is unlikely to weaken further", which of course is the last thing in the world a yen carry trade fueled "market" wants to hear?

http://pebblewriter.com/did-kuroda-just-kill-the-bull-market/

If I didn't know any better, I'd think there was something fishy about these "markets" of ours...

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