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The Job Market Will Get Much Worse, JPMorgan Warns
Submitted by Daniel Drew via Dark-Bid.com,
As Zero Hedge reports every month, the labor force participation rate is at multi-decade lows. Michael Feroli, a JPMorgan economist, said the economy will produce even fewer jobs in the future.
In the last ten years, the U.S. saw 68,000 new jobs per month. Meanwhile, the population grew by over 200,000 per month. The last decade's data was marred by severe job losses in 2008. From 1995 - 2005, it was normal to see 300,000 new jobs per month in good years, and the bad years didn't come close to the 2008 horror show.
Job creation is on a slight uptrend now, but it still hasn't kept up with population growth. Even worse, Feroli says he expects monthly job creation to drop to around 75,000 in the near future. In other words, there will be no recovery. With a population that is still growing, this job shortage is nothing less than a ticking time bomb for social unrest.
In the absence of new jobs, will mass death be the only thing that straightens out the job to population ratio?
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But Jim Dimond and the rest of the Wall Street Banking Sewer Rats will make more money! Zero rates forever is the best indirect transfer of wealth in American history and the Middle class and working piir (soon to ne one in the same) is unwilling to get rid of this DC crowd who cares only for power and money and a Federal Reserve sytem courrpt to the core!
This can't end well.......for most people?
$15/hour burger flipper pay... NOW!!!! That'll increase jobs.
(I am Dear Leader Obama's ecomonic advisor)
And bring in more machinery to replace workers and destroy many small businesses as they are the only ones paying smaller wages out of necessity.
As I told my oldest son years ago. You don't want to simply be the guy who fixes the machines that replace us, you want to be the person designing and building the next generation of machines...
It's obvious that the only solution will be Soylent Green.
The US elites, being steadfast Luciferians, will unleash biological warfare within our borders. That'll whittle down the number of us useless grazers.
Yes, eventually greed and corruption have a funny way of killing everyone...
same as it ever was...
^and this is why the destruction continues. Sorry to say, but the survival tactic you espouse, which is not dumb, is essentially facilitating the destruction of producers that the elite want. Instead, tell your son that he doesn't simply want to be the guy that fixes the machines that replace us, but the guy who shoots the people who outsource, replace, and enslave us. FIFY
That's a very ignorant world-view. Labor-reducing machines are a boon to humanity, freeing us up for higher pursuits. It's the distribution of the gains from the productivity that is the issue. If you are a slave it's because you have decided to become one. Nobody is stopping you from producing goods and services that the market demands. Or do you feel that you are entitled to a job just because you exist?
riotously funny and naive mr. thisson. offshoring production/jobs was motivated by greed. robotics will take the same path. humans will be needed less. "for every job so many men, so many men no one needs" - P. Gabriel. the roboticene will decimate human numbers Georgia Guidestone style.
Actually that is incredibly ignorant, Oquities. Many on ZH are not capable of wrapping their minds around the fact that people REFUSE to buy more expensive products simply becasue they are made in the USA. Those people - the vast majority of us - are why jobs are moving overseas. You can manufacture as much stuff as you want in the U.S. but if nobody buys it becasue it's too expensive the company goes out of business - no more jobs - or moves manufacturing to a place where they can stay in business.
"you want to be the person designing and building the next generation of machines..."
Machines will be designing and building the next generation of machines. Rise of the Algobots.
"you want to be the person designing and building the next generation of machines..."
Until told to train your foreign replacement.
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission.
eeeeeeeeeeer
Why do we need jobs when you have EBT card's and a printing machines
Jobs are so 19/20th century.
#sarc
That will be peanuts when Argentinian style STAGFLATION sets in
The thieves are telling us , it is going to get worst like we did not know
We must be very close, i have my eyes on Sept 15 2015
Funny thing. In a free market economy there is no unemployment. Governments are the cause of "unemployment."
Stuck on Zero.....people don't understand what you're saying. and it is exactly, dead on correct.
If you want everyone to have a job.....remove all the (government invented) constraints that keep companies and entrepreneurs from hiring people!!....and there are hundreds.
yes...it means my four nephews will be picking peaches in California for about $3.00 per/hour, so let it be.
Then, you need to couple this contraint removal by allowing people to build affordable homes. Let my nephews go together and buy a very small piece of land on which they place a tent. But that's another constraint. it's illegal to be poor when it comes to housing in most of the US.
Minimum wages (and increases to minimum wages) do one thing: Convert many part time and low wage jobs into fewer higher paying full time and part time jobs.
That's about it.
Also maybe produce should be more expensive when all of the externalities and subsidies are factored into the actual price of production. It could very well be that we have way too many fruits and vegetables grown here.
Yes, in a purely darwinist "free market", the bad ideas and poorly managed companies are allowed to fuck off and die.
Murder by Neglect as State Policy.
Ukraine & Greece experiments: eliminate pensions, medical care, jobs, raise utility and transportation costs, privatize public assets and raise the prices and you have a long term formula for accelerated shrinkage of the population
once the desired number is reached and appropriate shut down (3-10 years) - you import the labor without citizenship or rights of any kind.
TPP formula - sovereignty is gone
** ALERT **
Watch out ZeroHedge commenters. The DOJ could be coming for you.
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/the-government-wants-names-of-online-co...
take another bonus boyz
Yep. the government and government connected keep getting more wealthy while the producers starve.
'In the absence of new jobs, will mass death be the only thing that straightens out the job to population ratio?"
That or we will be eating bushes and bugs....for as long as they last.
Did you mean "eating bushes and clintons and bugs ....for as long as they last"???
Please don't use the words Clinton's and bush in the same sentence...
;-D
Ok got it
I would rather starve than eat at Clinton's bush.................
oops.....................my bad
Exectutive Order #20150610-00158
There is only 1 direction and that direction is UP.
- Dear Leader
The only mass death we need involves the banking system whose leaching has sucked all the wealth out of the economy.
Oh the irony, JPM article on shitty job market ( which is worse than they report) a day after they announce job layoffs. Almost funny
Obamacare is designed to wipe out grandma and keep her from taking jobs away from illegal aliens. Whocouldanode?
It is somewhat galling to have the bank that helped fuck up the country and fuck over the populace publish reports like this.
Speaking of banks...get a load of this.
JPM/Comex/FR
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3247676-did-comex-just-receive-a-physical-gold-bailout-from-the-feds
If true, this is great news for the holders of physical. But then again some people have been waiting for the comex collapse for years...
Very convincing.
You've got to keep the gold issue in perspective with the 2008 Dodd Frank act amended to the Farm Act that clearly states that gold can be confinscated for cash dollars and even after bullion the government has the right to go after everything else (coin, flatware, cufflinks).
Propably better off with tugnsten and titanuim, especially if there is going to be a prolonged shooting war.
With the big O's eo's they can seize your land, water, food, etc...
So what's to keep in perspective other than Maslow's hierarchy?
A "bailout" implies that there was no consideration for the gold received. There is no evidence this is a bailout. To the contrary, this is evidence that the market is working as intended, and that where there are more contracts standing for delivery than warehoused commodities, the COMEX will make spot purchases to cover the difference.
It is somewhat galling to have the bank that helped fuck up the country and fuck over the populace publish reports like this.
True, however they are trying to help alleviate the problem by throwing their middle managers and IT guys from the rooftops, so there is that.
Why do people always need to be working. Can't they think of better things to do. The FEDs printing has been working great ffor 7 years now. In 15 years most Americans will be too old to be working anyhow. Just print.
And BTFD everything is green today.
The coddled & pampered millenial generation (those aged 21 - 35) are a larger cohort than the baby boomers were and they now are the largest generation in the workforce in the USA where the average age is 31.
Large majority of us millenials never really got "started". We kind of live at home and smoke dope because we have no future and are 40k in dept with nothign to show for it.
"From 1995 - 2005, it was normal to see 300,000 new jobs per month in good years..."
Where did you find this data?
For the 132 months you cite , there were a total of 21 months that had 300k or higher in the number of jobs added.
1998 was closest to being what you suggest, but was short by 17k a month at 283k in jobs.
You need the data correct before trying to connect the dots.
But but but it's only 5% unemployment......
/sarc
Ok. Let's start at Jamie Dimon and work our way down from there.
Was it Cloward and Piven that said that true, pure, socialism can only be implemented AFTER a complete collapse of society and economy? And the reason that socialism has not worked anywhere in the past is because there has not been true and complete collapse of a socieity and economy where socialism has been implemented?
Each and every year since 1965 when the immigration law was changed approximately 2 million legal immigrants from third world come into the USSA. They jump to the head of the line thanks to Affirmative Action. Then you have all those alphabet visas bringing in yet more to take the real Americans jobs.
The Hart-Celler Act, better known as the Immigration Act of 1965, was designed to destroy America. Period. Emanuel Celler hated America with a passion, hated European Whites with a passion. That’s why he devoted his career to destroying America’s formerly sensible immigration laws. This tribesman was the architect of the law: Norbert Schlei
Add in the advancement in robotics, not just for agriculture and the like, but for many jobs currently done by humans, and you really would have to be a cretin to think that immigration is wonderful.
You have all the Tribe owners of high tech doing their share whether like Zuckerberg giving huge "donations" to GOP Congressswine like Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Spokane WA and so many other "Conservatives" and then this sort of thing which GOOGLE and the rest are involved in and it looks PRETTY DAMN GRIM for White Americans.
New $125M Intel Fund Targets Startups Run by Women, Minorities
Cromwell Schubarth, June 9, 2015
All it takes is bullets and people with enough guts to pull the trigger.
Side note: Women (except the asians) in high tech (not stupid app development) are a joke... (Even on my worse day, hungover from a night out at the strip clubs, I was still more productive)...
Standard Disclaimer: Now get in the kitchen and make me a sandwich. Because for most women in America these days, they can't even do that...
Or bakers with enough ovens!
Not that I approve of it, but you don't seem to know a damned thing about affirmative action. The issue here isn't affirmative action, it's all the bullshit welfare programs, lack of enforcement of immigration laws currently on the books, and failure to secure the borders -- all due to the corruption caused by campaign contributions from businesses that benefit from exploiting immigrants.
Economic nationalism! 40% tariff on anything and everything that comes into this country. 5 years of that and there will be an acute labor shortage in America.
Apple has 5,000 employees in the United States. It has 40,000 employees outside the United States. Subcontractors, building all of Apple's products in foreign lands, exceed 700,000!
The math is simple.
Apple may be the most extreme example. But this ratio, of domestic US labor to the foreign labor that is dedicated to meeting US demand, is the greatest injustice to our countrymen.
Only a universal, uniform, and punitive tariff rate held for about five years would reverse the course of our economic decline and restore the "social contract" between capital and labor. It would take about 5 years for American industry to be rebuilt and labor to be retrained, in order to replace the foreign sources of production. During the process, the revenues raised through the tariffs would go a long way to defray the costs of rebuilding and retraining.
Plan B: tax cell phones more.
The President has the power to leve tarrifs as imports undermine sovereignty, but if he doesn't, and sovereignty is being undermined, is that treason?
^cool idea bro. I'm sure Apple and those who run the country will be happy to destroy themselves implementing it. The clash between capital and labor always resolves by voluntary relinquishment on the part of capital, because they care for people. Or...mass death.
Freeze immigration for the same period to re-balance the labor market - but some lazy Americans will have to go to work.
Shitty idea. How about addressing the issue that it's overly expensive to hire domestic workers, because the entire system is larded down in taxes, subsidies, "wealth redistribution" fees and bailouts ?
Is this the same Feroli who in March said the Fed underestimates the strength of the US labor market? http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-03-18/fed-is-underestimating-s...
Yes, yes, at some point all this math and fundamentals will actually matter again. In the meantime... < yawn >
The nation lives by loaferism, it'll die by loaferism.
"In the absence of new jobs, will mass death be the only thing that straightens out the job to population ratio?"
Yes
So, same as it ever was then? Gee, I am shocked, just shocked I tell you.
Mass death for who? The French Revolution ended that aristrocracy with relatively little damage to the public. The bad guys don't always escape their evil deeds.
The wealth of the 85 wealthiest people could support half of humanity.
Mass death theory has some merit considering the fact that the neocon/zionists are busy trying to start WWIII with both Russia and China, the Pentagon is busy FedEx-ing anthrax spores around the world, and diseases like MERS and Ebola are on standby - hours away from being a weaponised epidemic.
Add to that the boiling cauldrons of social unrest on so many fronts (race, militarized police, wealth inequality, surveillance state, corporatism, and just blatant lack of freedom generally) as well as the inexorable progress of basic serial arithmetic in population + unemployment and it would be foolish to believe that nobody in a position of power is considering a mass cull as a solution.
nothing to with dumbocrats right? you'll notice the decline began in 2007 after you voted communists, err dumbocrats, to majority control of both houses of congress, and a no account community agitator to our highest office two years later. thanks a lot.
Drink! (you said "zionists" right?)
The greater the chaos, the more they succeed. That's why this place is on the crazy train turned up to ludicrous speed.
seems i hit a dumbocrat nerve...what kind of moore-on votes for failure TWICE, doof,,,"pentagon fedexing anthrax spores around the world", where do we get these idiots? dumbocrat factories, err classrooms?
I'm sure they will be adding prisoners to the BLS numbers soon.
I'm pretty sure prison inmates are already counted as employed, i.e. not unemployed. Same goes with military personnel.
There are over 5.375 million job openings now which is the highest number ever reported since the JOLTS report (Job openings & labor turnover report was started back in 2000) has been reported. From what I hear the problem is a very tight labor market similar to back in 2000 when retail workers were getting $5,000 sign on bonuses but now it is very tight at all levels of jobs from low skilled $12 an hour retail to $95,000 average salary white collar positions where many job posts get few if any responses (hardly 'hundreds' which is a myth) so companies have to hire internally out of necessity...
Two of the most recent reports the Manpower Survey & Small business optimism index both are also at or near record highs and the respondents are all saying the same thing -- just hardly any qualified applicants now and most of the 5.5% of those who remain unemployed are considered hardcore unemployable either because they have a criminal record, have no current work history for the past 2 years or longer or have a social & interview skills of a used napkin
It’s an employer’s market, most can pick and choose from several hundred applicants for any job that pays more’n 30-40K a year…this economy is sic (for way too much government, regulation, and taxes).
Bullshit most cannot find applicants similar to the 1997-2001 period. Now they have to offer high salaries and sign on bonuses. Most get virtually no applicants
If this is so, you would think that there would be evidence of on the job training, such as in the early eighties with computer operators, but as you say, many jobs are being sourced out to countries like Pakistain, Bangladesh, Phillipines and India.., but if so what is the economics? I sermise that these are temoprary jobs that are increadibly boring and have high turnover that the training cost may not cover the turn over rate and the overhead of required insurance and retirement benifits, thus these are temporary jobs that do not sustain the core business economically. There are sectors that do need retail operators that government has priced out of the market with regulation also (beauticians).
Smells like the same old bullshit that's been peddled since the latest phase of the ongoing depression.
100 million healthy adults of working age have no job, fact. Who is in charge of creating jobs? There is an office of the economy that says it controls everything for our own good, and a small number of rich people who say they must remain in charge of the private economy because they are the source of all job creation.
100 million.
Quick!!! Open the borders!!!
You knew it was bad when some of the Mexicans started going back home. Pretty soon the Mexicans will be the ones trying to keep the Gringos out.
If it only was a joke:
Experts Say Best Option Now Is Keeping Nation As Comfortable As Possible Till Endhttp://www.theonion.com/article/experts-say-best-option-now-keeping-nati...
Not only does the Kardashian freak show not make me comfortable, just knowing it exists gives me an adverse reaction.
So, what happens when the pension funds have to cash out to pay the the pensioners? Who goes down for those under funded state pensions (like the State of Illinois and Chicago)? Is the Fed going to buy and monoterize? But then the companies will be forced to pay a dividend and the political-economic circle will have been completed to the communist system (one party; Bankers).
Simple - the pensions won't be payed out as promised. But just try to warn a teacher, fireman, policeman to prepare to fend for themselves -- they don't wanna hear about it.
Nothing looking at a ten year average, when there is a one year stretch in there that massively affects the data. Did Tyler not see the JOLTS report, where jobs are at an all time high? What the job creation average throwing out the high and low years?
if one were to subtract growth in debt from our miniscule gdp growth one would realize our economy and the relative prosperity of of most Americans has been in steep decline for years.
...and it's not going to get better until government loosens the noose
Interesting thing about greed....It's an addiction...a disease, no different than alcholism, drug addiction, gambling or pedophila. The more one gets to satisfy their addiction...the more one wants. And like the drug addict, one can't get enough. Unfortunately, their disease doesn't kill them, it only warps their minds more and distorts reality. But just like an addict, there are no lines they won't cross, rules they won't break or people they won't kill in order to get their "fix".
How does the immigration affect these numbers?
When Bush, Jr. took office in 2000 and decided to not enforce the immigration laws, so he could fill up his private prisons, is when the bottom really started to come out.
And the prison population has taken over many employment sectors as slave labor.
https://archive.org/stream/PrisonLaborSomeFactsAndIssues/PrisonLabor-som...
The Correctional Vendors Association has been lobbying congress to keep mandatory minimum sentences. 55% of Federal prisoners are in jail for drug offences.
http://www.neontommy.com/news/2014/04/prison-labor-exploitation-or-rehab...
Anyone who bothers to send their kid to college in the US if they are are a US citizen is a genuine dope. There are better strategies, but most of the US population has lost the ability to critically think, so for the elites, it's mission accomplished.
So how about you give us some examples of these "better strategies"? What would you suggest for your own children (assuming you have any)? Send them to Europe for free education?
No word from the Obama Admin on how their Legacy will look regarding his Economy & Jobs given that he only Supports Wealthy Stakeholders??
- His mantra Administration will waste the Next 18 Months on Propaganda
- Perhaps "Limited Legacy" will gain traction
- "Hands Over Eyes & Ears Administration"
- "Celebrity Fawning & Talk Show Appearances Marred the Admin even as the Clinton wasted their own public power"
- "Not the first admin to forget the past errors of previous administration, but perhaps the first to stick their heads in the sand and not admit the Many Economic Trends, Corruptions, and Monstrous Status Quo"
"Feroli suggests that without technological progress, America's demographics and subdued productivity will drive "normal" GDP growth even lower. And the pace of job creation in the coming years will fall to around 75,000."
What CNN, USATODAY, CBS, ABC, NBC will not pick this up?
"Mass Immigration Enforcement" would be a much less bloody and more humane solution.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/12/14/928611/-INSOURCING-Identifying-...
JP Morgan - steward of prison labor...I think we see where this is going.
Mass death? Get over yourself.
There is not a shortage of food, water, clothing, widgets, or toys.
And the problem is world wide, so it's not even an issue of immigration - immigration doesn't particularly cause it and won't fix it, either.
Mass welfare. Mass money printing. Mass automation. Mass leisure.
Mass blogging on ZH, millions and billions of people posting on ZH.
Somewhere between "The Marching Morons" and "To Serve Man".
Gradually, but with increasing rapidity, the entire notion of "Jobs", "Careers", "Small Businesses", "self-employment" they are all following the Dodo bird into extinction.
Resist it all you want but the world cannot generate the billions of jobs needed to keep the global population busy earning their food, clothing and shelter money. While Socialism, Communism, and other non-market oriented economic systems have not provided more than survival amidst a grey, overcast lifetime, at least the population won't starve.
The banks and most likely, "the Smartest men in the room", from whatever walk of life have known that it is inevitable that "work" as we know it, will essentially be handled by relatively very few human beans as the years go by. By the next century one man will run all the machines. Leaving the 10 billion of us to take in the wash from our neighbors, while they do ours.
Some other economic paradigm must surely be employed or a global pandemic let loose to obliterate half the world's population.
U may not like banks telling this, but they are not wrong at all.
In the absence of new jobs, will mass death be the only thing that straightens out the job to population ratio?
They are already dropping like flies in Europe, but shhhhh, don't tell anyone.
The key is to take out as many shitbag politicians before hitting the off button.
When the Russian Federation nukes America there will be lots of jobs opening up to clean up the mess left behind by the nukes. Moreover, I have called first dibs on New York State when the Russian Federation finally nukes NYC. For those left in the bombed out state there will be employment picking up all the dead bodies of humans, and animals. There will be a finders fee for anyone that produces the fried corpse of any of the NYC Investment Banksters that have wrought Ponzi Hell on all of us en masse.
I used to work for an agency that was a part of the Department of Labor. In the mid 1990's we had a meeting of the "front line managers" - those who actually worked out in the state's communities (city's and towns). Those of us on these front lines warned of a forthcoming recession based on interactions with employers and our direct observations.
We tried to steer the agenda of the meeting towards preparation for a recession. The commissioner of the agency then called the head of the "Statistical Research and Analysis" section to come over and be in attendance. This was the person who directed all the reports and sh*t describing the status of the state's economy and predicting future trends. This person said his section saw no signs at all of a weakening economy. We were then told that he was the expert and to never utter the word recession when it was obviously not going to happen based on this expert input.
The recession began within months and our agency was ill-prepared to efficiently respond to it. These "Research and Analysis" types are the ones behind the figures used to determine policy with regard to the overall economy going forward (or even as it presently exists). They are basically retarded utilizing the most lazy methods imaginable since their primary goal is to put forth the least amount of effort possible and expend the least amount of thought possible while maintaining their ability to cash their bi-weekly paycheck. To include over-riding those who clearly see what's going on. They also are good at relying upon methods established decades ago since that doesn't require them to actually produce an original thought or concept.
'
'
'
Automation is coming.
What do you think countries like the Chi-Coms will do with millions of unemployed, horny, drunken, single men, who are sorely pissed off after being told to go home to the farms and rice patties and make their lives there, after 20 years?
They will do what Mao did in the 60's.
•?•
V-V
I don't believe for a moment that Job creation is on an uptrend now, not even slightly as stated in this piece.
These are all statistic shenanigans to keep the populus calm. People are being laid-off everywhere