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Spot The Bigger Bubble
One of these is an irrational bubble created by millions of uneducated investors piling into markets because they are convinced there is just one more greater fool.. and the other is Chinese Stocks.
Still not convinced?
Charts: Bloomberg
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China > Netflix
We're slacking, guys. Slacking badly. These results are unacceptable. Just because our bubble stocks beat their bubble stocks in 2014 is no guarantee of future results. All of you back to the biler room and sell, sell SELL!
It seems some of you need a little motivation. Like maybe I'm not serious about this.
"I'm here from downtown. Mitch and Murray sent me. I'm here on a mission of mercy. PUT. THAT. COFFEE. DOWN. Coffee's for closers....."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8kZg_ALxEz0
When I first started looking at why NFLX was doing so well it came to me that NFLX is an inverse indicator of how well things are going.
Look at what it does. It allows the user to instantaneously escape to a reality that makes them feel good. And it's cheap, unlike coke or heroin.
So, when things are going well, people will go out and do things that bring enjoyment. When things are shitty, they use up their non-work hours by escaping for hours on end to that which makes them forget about how shitty things are.
I guess it doesn't hurt that there is too much funny money running around chasing yield, but the whole market for NFLX is instant escape for non-busy time. That time would be when you thought about your current situation and the details of why it came about.
pods
That is exactly the same thing as the Great Depression, NFLX is the modern day movie theater where people escape to in their own minds when times are tough........good call pods.
I'll take it one step further. Comic Book movies are the new musicals.
The depression era musicals were stories graceful people living comfortable lives that allowed a strong morality. Kind of a nice escape from the shitty depression era and the evil people who caused it.
Comic Book movies have heroes fighting for something. Most of the heroes are flawed and imperfect, but they persevere over villains that are usually ideologically bent towards ultimate control. Juxtapose that with our AG saying that the real villains are to big to fight yet our earnest heroes will be sacrificed for the same villains selfish causes.
Rogers/Stark 2016!!! Vote for real leaders that represent the people :-)
BTW Iron Man 2 is a very interesting take on libertarianism and personal responsibility. It gets unfairly shit on by a lot of people who missed the message.
As for NFLX, I always assumed most people new what pods had figured out. If you can't afford to go out or enjoy life and .gov makes taking drugs (that aren't there's) such a dicey proposition, binge watching TV shows for hours on end is a pretty good option. Admittedly there's a lot of great fucking TV on nowadays...
You Sir, are a genious!! I would never thought of that. Bravo.
Agreed. Long liquor.
I don't know if Chinese stocks are in a bubble or not, but the Chinese do have a lot of savings that was in cash before. That doens't account for the high margin usage. But they do have a lot of savings to invest, unlike the average american.
Every time it seems like we've reached Peak Madness / Crowd Delusion, somebody decides it isn't quite enough.
I don't even bother trying to convince anyone of the unsustainability of this, nobody wants to hear it.
** ALERT **
Watch out ZeroHedge commenters. The DOJ could be coming for you.
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/the-government-wants-names-of-online-co...
Winning!!!!
The move that the options have made in NFLX is insane. I hate it because I thought about buying the 650 calls that expire this week when the stock crossed through 635 yesterday. They were at $1.80. Now they're $30. Fuck!!!!
jeezus ! ...frontrunning insanity has been the winning play < since Lehman >
I stand corrected. Those options just hit $41. $1.80 to $41 in two days, on no news...WTF.
It's only going to get more stupid in the days to come as the stock market and the consumer's morale will further part ways.
+100 Fuck!!!!.......I say this EVERY DAAAAAY
it's a whole lot easier to go full retard on one stock than it is to go full retard on an entire exchange.
True, but the Chinese don't discriminate when it comes to stocks.
The whole US market is at least as big a bubble as China. China's market is something like 40% of GDP, US equity markets are 1.5x. Valuations in consumer discretionary and Internet Bubble 3.0 are stupid and the aggregate market cap of the stupidity is much bigger in the US than in China. Plus all the funny money floating around China has its origins in the FRNs printed to finance the endless US trade defiicit with China.
The USD is the one bubble to rule them all. All the others are just symptoms / spinoffs from the grandaddy.
Yeah it's probably overvalued, but what's going to cause it to drop? This is an enormously popular service with a reputation for quality. With their recent net neutrality win over the ISP's, they're only going to be even more popular. Maybe a general decline in stocks would cause them to drop, but otherwise, the only way it's going to go down is if suddenly their massive consumer base is no longer able to pay subscriptions. At least they're selling content, not ads like Facebook or whatever the hell snapchat sells..
Thoughts?
$30 by 2020....pre split
Bookmark it
Good thing central banks see no bubbles and are complicitly keeping rates at zero forever into the future.
I'd like a 30 year loan at -30%.
I could die rich.
I wonder if Janet could arragne one.
Would you like paper or plastic?
It's a race to the pop.