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Gazprom Seeks A Way Around Ukraine By 2019
Submitted by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,
Gazprom has vowed to entirely cut out Ukraine as a transit hub for natural gas exports to Europe.
The conflict with Ukraine has scrambled the longstanding energy relationship between Russia and Europe. The European Union imports around one-third of its natural gas from Russia, but having seen those flows cut off multiple times in the past, European officials are pushing to rid themselves of their dependence on Moscow. The violence in Ukraine solidified that motivation.
Russia is also unhappy with the arrangement. In an effort to separate gas exports to the EU (a critical business relationship that Moscow doesn’t want interrupted) from its ongoing conflict with Kiev (a geostrategic priority), Russia has a great incentive to cut out Ukraine. About half of Russia’s gas exports to Europe must travel through Ukraine.
But that could change within the next four years, if Gazprom gets its way. “We will not export gas via Ukraine after 2019. The customers will get gas at (newly) agreed delivery points,” Gazprom’s Deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev said on June 9.
However, that would require major investments in new infrastructure in order to successfully work around Ukraine. Medvedev is pressing Europe to hurry up and decide on how and where future Russian gas will enter Europe.
Russia has proposed a new pipeline network called “Turkish Stream” that would run through Turkey to the border with Greece.
Some European countries are open to that plan, but others are throwing their weight behind an alternative route. The Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP) will run from Azerbaijan through Turkey, and connect with the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), which will pick up at the Greek-Turkish border and run gas through southern Europe to Italy. Both pipelines are backed by a consortium of private international oil companies as well as the state-owned oil company in Azerbaijan.
To make matters more complicated, the European Union is pursuing an antitrust case against Gazprom, alleging that the Russian company charges different rates to different EU member states, with prices that vary depending on their cooperation with Russia on unrelated political matters. The EU also argues that Gazprom illegally seeks to block the resale of natural gas between EU countries in an effort to maintain its grip, particularly over certain Eastern European countries, such as Ukraine.
The EU has given Gazprom until September to respond to the antitrust charges.
The confrontation between European regulators and Gazprom underscores the animosity between Russia and Europe, and also raises questions about how Gazprom plans on convincing Europe to opt for its pipeline alternative, rather than the TANAP-TAP route.
Moreover, the EU has agreed to work towards creating an “energy union,” which seeks “uninterrupted energy supplies” that European officials think is only obtainable through a common approach. In other words, the energy union is a direct response to Gazprom’s strategy of picking off separate EU members one by one, sealing bilateral deals with unique terms and prices. Brussels sees this as a threat, and while much of its motivation for the energy union is driven by climate objectives, the idea only got off the ground after the Ukraine crisis in 2014.
The EU faces its own challenges. For example, it is far from clear whether Eastern European countries currently paying discounted rates for gas will prefer a collective approach, which could end their pricing arrangements. But it is also hard to see how Gazprom will be able to edge out the TANAP-TAP network.
And if Russia’s “Turkish Stream” Pipeline cannot be constructed, Russia will have a very difficult time in entirely cutting out Ukraine from natural gas exports in a few short years.
For now, tension between Russia and the EU won’t go away, despite their strong commercial ties. The G7 nations just reaffirmed their support for sanctions on Russia as a result of the Ukraine conflict. And the antitrust case against Gazprom could force the dispute over natural gas pricing to a head in the relatively near future.
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wait for it... ...hold... ...hold...
standing by to buy the ruble/yuan...
Y'all just wait. Greece hosts the supposedly defunct South Stream under any other name. See, the rest of the tiddlie winks players have forgotten about the pipelines behind all the global machinations goings on of late. Russia throws the Ukies to the West and takes on a new ally, Greece, for a pipeline and berthing rights. Athens is a beautiful city and has a nice harbor for ships.
Wake up people.
Greece tells the EU/IMF/WB/Troika/Western Banks to go Uknowahtemselves and lives happily ever after (Well at least better than with their "Current Brother and Allies") and tells the western lenders that the loans are not legally enforceable because of Fraudulent Conveyance.
I almost feel sorry for Vicky, Hunter and their Kiev Nazi friends.
NOT!
It's the poor, ordinary Ukes I empathize with.
Oh, and Macedonia.. DON’T Let Noodleman come anywhere near you!
Since Ukraine will soon be a memory, the next location needs to be identified and profited from. I'm selling t-shirts soon on ebay and they are going to say:
"Fuck the EU cuz I was at the 2019 Arab Spring in Poland and what difference does it make?"
I figure I better name all the shit the US started, so I cover all my bases.
“the next location” is Macedonia
The Greek gas connection needs to run through there to feed the rest of SE Europe.
Who do you think paid for the violence there last month?
Bulgaria should be fuming at the US right now.
The Macedonian puppets have been summoned by their Brussels Sproutmaster, who earlier took instructions from his DC Emperor.
Result? The terrified Macedonian puppets told the world they'll let South Stream run through only with a blessing by EUSSR. Or maybe it's a smart choice to obey and spare their country from the Empire's wrath...
Nevertheless, ordinary people in Macedonia know what time it is and a large majority, that btw sees through the Empire's bullshit and hipocrisy, is pro-Russia oriented. The "protesters" are mostly young to middle-aged brainwashed hipsters that've never done a day of decent job in their entire lives and come from Soros' Open Society Institute openly financed NGO's.
2019, the west will have conquered all by then, won't they?
Russian pipe to China is Big Prize, signed & started 2014. World's biggest.
http://rt.com/business/184176-russia-china-gas-siberian-power/
E Europe is nice, but Russkies can do without it. Maybe India next.
Vlad, 'mine's bigger.'
Nudelman, 'I have pipeline envy'.
Nope, goes straight on to Italy, either through Albania or around it. Depends who the Muslims in Albania decide they want to align with once Greece is sorted out. Italy is already a major gas transit route for MENA gas. Infrastructure just needs to be expanded/upgraded not built from scratch.
Makes Italy the next domino up after Greece since without them the EU is dead in the water, energy wise and if not Italy, Spain for the same reason being a major pipeline gas transit route for MENA gas/oil.
Either one makes a squeeze play in tandem with Greece the EU economies collapse without enough energy.
Hahaha @ nope.
Will not end so easily for the Greeks.
They are a rich fiefdom of Zion, especially in agriculture. They also sit on Israel's designated pipeline route to Europe, once Lebensraum and pipeline routes in Syria are achieved.
There is no way that Zion is going to let Greece fall into the hands of Russia and/or China. "Not going to happen."
Zion and their banksters launched WW-I to undermine the Ottoman Empire and free up Palestine for their colonization--taking. So what is Greece and the Greeks in their scheme of things?! Nothing.
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..
So by 2019 the Poles wil have to light their farts in winter?
When did they stop ?
Then they will certainly have more than enough fuel.
...and U.S. foreign policy scores yet another impressive, long-term strategic success.
Hard to keep track of 'em.
The Nobel Prize Winner creating another failed state after having destroyed Libya, Syria, Somalia, Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Only 190 countries left to destroy on this planet.
Forward.
Protests mount against US-backed regime in Ukraine
By Thomas Gaist10 June 2015
In the latest eruption of mass protests against the US puppet government of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, thousands of demonstrators swept through the streets of Kiev this weekend. Marchers demanded cancellation of martial law decrees, the repeal of subsidy cuts that have driven up the price of energy and foodstuffs, and the reversal of cuts to wages and pensions imposed by the government.
Demonstrators held placards demanding an end to cuts in pensions and denouncing the spiking prices of basic commodities. Slogans included “Raise pensions,” “We are hungry,” “Out with Yatsenyuk and his reforms,” and “Impeach Poroshenko!”
The demonstrations over the weekend come on the heels of so-called “Financial Maidan” protests at the end of May, which saw thousands protest in Kiev against catastrophic economic conditions produced by the government’s austerity policies.
An LGBT pride parade was assaulted by members of Right Sector and other far-right groups on Friday. The parade was quickly dispersed by attackers who reportedly threw rocks and tear gas capsules at the demonstrators.
http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2015/06/10/ukra-j10.html
Those little protests are not going to scare anyone. They will have to actually do something.
Russia will reroute gas in 2019 - IF - they have another option. And they can keep that option operational and not sabatoged constantly.
Right. Poroshenko will brutally put down any demonstrations against him.
Criticizing the government in public will not be tolerated.
Brave and sad, but also disconcerting in that they still think that it is the DC US that is terrorizing them, and not the DC US' master.
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..
"Who run swamp-town..."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hgq4w4dqKsU
It's... It's... It's going through Greece!
Bitchezz.
They cut off supplies "multiple" times??
Im calling B.S., as far as I know they only reduced the amount of gas that was due to Ukraine when they had pricing disputes. Even when it was the USSR they were reliable suppliers.
The reason why Russia has not pulled the energy plug on Ukraine long ago is that Crimea still, even now, depends on Ukraine for more than half of its supply of electricity. With a shortage of electricity Crimea and Sevastopol would be in a bad way.
All that changes in December 2015 when the new electricity transmission line from Krasnodar is due to start operating. The new nuclear power stations near Rostov-na-Donu came online less than a year ago.
Meanwhile, Odessa Oblast largely depends on generation in Ribnita, Transnistria for its electricity.
Winter is coming...again.
This means WAR!
hello, it has been war for awhile now.
I didn't think the '/s' would be necessary in my above post. Alas, I was wrong...
Ukraine theater will end by 2019 . I guess .
Turk stream is on schedule already no delays yet .
2019 the gas stops going through Banderstaan, as Russia stated, if you want gas, build your own pipeline to the Turk/Greek border, deal with it.
"The European Union imports around one-third of its natural gas from Russia, but having seen those flows cut off multiple times in the past,"
i think this oilprice.com site is a lot of BS. didn't we just hear from one of the other fools that posts there.
come on ZH. these guys are shills.
Dear Vladimir & Gazprom,
You need to do a Paradigm Shift in your 'Situational Analysis':
"Instead of pushing on a rope, you get them to pull on it". What do I mean by this? Well (that's a deep subject), you...
Make them pay in Rubles and Gold on existing sales, if they won't stop punishing their own populace with being America's vassal states. Then sit back and watch how their people turn on them.
Bonus: This effectively amounts to having a Gold-Ruble, w/o officially declaring it, and w/o going directly against China's wishes on gold-backed currency. You're merely settling in a Ruble-Gold mix, the way you're settling oil and gas sales to China in RMB/CNY. Devious but effective.
Kirk out. Here all week. Try the Salad Bar.
p.s. Now do what the other Vlad did: Impale them! Impale those EUtransvestites and Hermaphrodites on the pole of their own folly.
pps. Can I consult and get a Russian passport? You can reach me at my handle at hush mail dot me.
@Kirk
Putin has said he will honor contacts which require sales in dollars
However, those contracts expire in.....wait for it: 2018
2019 All bets are off
Buy your gas at the new Greek terminus pay in rubles or gold
Time is on Putin's side
He offered, a year ago, to re-strike those dollar contracts in Euros, voluntarily, if that is what the buyers wanted. Every country except one (almost certainly Ukraine) quickly seized the offer to be priced and pay in Euros instead of US dollars.
So how long before the US and EU will drop Ukraine ?
Will it make 2016 ?
Russia will pull the plug on energy supplies to Ukraine Q1 2016.
This will only turn Turkey/Greece into the new Ukraine.
At the heart of the matter, are GAZPROM and EUROPE. Russia uses GAZPROM as an instrument of policy in various ways. Europe wants energy sources that do not have enough leverage to be used as instruments of policy.
No matter where you move the pipeline, the issue will remain. It has already been a proxy war in Ukraine, Syria, Iraq, Georgia, and Libya.
It will likely end up as a hot and direct war, possibly even nuclear.
All this to avoid a little open competition.
Governments and industries never mix well.
P.S. Not to pick on Russia... Europe and the US use Banking the same way Russia uses energy sales...but that is a different post.
"This will only turn Turkey/Greece into the new Ukraine."
this was my first thought, when i first heared it on tv
now turkey have to be prepared for something new
i wonder what their original plan was with turkey
you guys may see some serious shi.t happen to your country in the next 30 years
Ukrianian pipes are old, brittle and way past their replacement time. To continue to pump through them is a liability that the supplier would have to contend with. Note that there hs been decreasing pressures in those pipelines over the last 10 or so years.
Can't say I blame them, the drunken kleptocracy in the Ukraine are and have been unreliable assholes since the end of the Cold War.
Hot chicks though.
It's a mystery. Why sell or transit to countries at WAR with you? YOU LAY DOWN THE FUCKING LAW TO EACH INDIVIDUAL BASTARD EURO PUPPET VASSAL and say here are the Terms & Conditions. Good old fashioned Capitalism.
WTF.
FUCK THE EU. If they're buying time to fuck you off then fuck them first for fucky fuck's sake.
I think that should have read fucking fuck's sake. There, fixed it!
"...for fucking fuckity fuck's sake." also has a nice alliterative ring to it .
Since becoming independent from the USSR in the early 1990s, Ukraine has been controlled and plundered by Oligarchs who became billionaires by stealing industries and businesses, and selling Russian oil and gas to the Ukrainians. Russia shut off the gas pipelines twice (2006 and 2009?) because Ukraine was siphoning off gas intended for Europe, and not paying for it. To get around the gas theft problem, Russia proposed bypassing Ukraine with North Stream (completed 2012) and South Stream. After the contracts for South Stream were signed with the transit countries, the EC in Brussels enacted their Third Energy Package (3rdEP)to try to extend their bureaucratic kingdom to include energy supplies, and to extort part ownership and control of the Russian pipelines for themselves and their cronies. 3rdEP is being used to restrict North Stream to 50% of capacity since Russia will not hand over part ownership and use.
Russia tried to negotiate over 3rdEP, but when Bulgaria folded to pressure from the EC and USA and refused to issue building permits, Russia cancelled South Stream in December 2014 and announced its diversion through Turkey to the Greek border. The asshats in Brussels announced that Russia would be forced to toe the Brussels line and build South Stream, but in late December 2014, and early January 2015 Russia served them a dose of reality with a firm "NYET" and the news that the Ukraine pipelines would be shut off in 2019.
Ever since, the EC has been in denial, trying to force Russia to kowtow to the 3rdEP, build South Stream, and even ante up cash to bail out Ukraine. The NABUCCO and TANAP gas pipelines were proposed to compete with Russian gas supplies, but international politics and chaos in the Middle East have hampered these projects. The Euro gas market is the prize in the Iran/Iraq/Syria/Russia/Shia versus Saudi/Qatar/Israel/USA/Sunni battle in Syria and Iraq, and the reason ISIS was invented and unleashed on Syria. Turkey's Erdogan is trying to take down the House of Assad in Syria to settle old scores, while benefiting from the diversion of South Stream.
Since 1992, Ukraine has been living off cheap oil and gas from Russia, sales to Russia of manufactured goods, and loans from the IMF and Russia. The Feb., 2014 coup has cut off the funding from Russia, access to the Russian markets, and subsidized oil and gas prices. Ukr's industries are old, and energy inefficient, unable to compete with Europe's. Worse, most of Ukr's heavy industry and mines are in the rebel-held Donbass. Ukr's economy is deep in the toilet, and going further down fast.
Having won Ukr in the 2014 coup, the EU/USA/NATO cabal now don't want it, particularly without Crimea. The cabal's snit fit and sanctions have dealt a serious blow to the EU economy by cutting off exports to Russia and closing off business opportunities in Russia, which was the EU's fastest-growing export market. The IMF is very reluctant to advance any more money, since fully 90% of their first $3 Billion advance in 2014 was siphoned off to Swiss bank accounts, and the Ukr situation is such a mess.
Meanwhile, Russia has shifted its plans for economic development, and gas and oil sales, to Eurasia, Asia, and the Pacific Rim, away from the EU. By 2019, Russia may be in a position to cut off the Ukr pipelines even if no new alternative lines to the EU are built.
it's not clear that building a gas pipeline from qatar to europe should be done, even ignoring geopolitics. i think the cost of piping (in joules) is comparable to liquefying and shipping, tho i could be wrong.
I considered writing an independent comment on this item, but Al Tinfoil has done it far better than I could have. My compliments. Especially important are his observations that Ukraine has behaved not only as an ingrate beneficialy of Russian generosity, but also as thieves. Ukraine may not always have a neo-nazi puppet government, but Russia is correct, nevertheless in wishing to protect itself from ingrained Ukrainian habits.
I considered writing an independent comment on this item, but Al Tinfoil has done it far better than I could have. My compliments. Especially important are his observations that Ukraine has behaved not only as an ingrate beneficiary of Russian generosity, but also as thieves. Ukraine may not always have a neo-nazi puppet government, but Russia is correct, nevertheless in wishing to protect itself from ingrained Ukrainian habits.
A T - Good concise summary
What a load of crap this article is. It is not even mentioning what the fuss is all about. The facts are these:
(i) There is not an alternative gas supplier for Europa (not on the scale of the old whore's needs)
(ii) Eurocrats introduction of a regulation called "3rd energy package" (forgot what the name of commission that introduced that regulation was)
And that regulation is the reason why Gazprom quit its South Stream project, as it bans Gazprom of holding any ownership over transportation network, so Gazprom made an elegant solution: Gazprom will bring gas at European borders, and from there it is up to Europe to build its transportation network and distribute gas to customers.
Crap of an article from that pile of waste and garbage at OilPrice.com.
allegedly qatar/iran have enough gas, but azerbaijan certainly does not. and turkmenistan's gas goes east, to china, and definitely not west to europe.
Moreover, a pipeline from Azerbaijan would have to transit Georgia. Which is not exactly the most stable country in the world.
russia should stop export of oil and gas alltogether - "saving it for future generations"
FunnyTastic how these blowhards in Brussels are divvying up other countries energy and other assets. Useless Eaters and Parasites.
Germany has it's own arrangements but Vlad should tell Merkel & Gangbang Squable and Co to play ball or we pull plug. End Of!
4 years to come up with an excuse for WW3.
Russia can get around Ukraine easily if they want to go into the LNG business. Just pipe or ship it into Kalingrad. Offer the Brits a price they can't refuse to buy it en masse from them instead of Qatar. Even offer them a discount if the Brits ship it themselves from Kalingrad to Britain. If the Brits don't have the shipping capacity, finance the building of the ships through trade deals. NATO won't sink it's own ships.