Geopolitical Risks Are Climbing: Interstate Conflict Is Highest Risk In 2015

Tyler Durden's picture

Every year, the World Economic Forum publishes an annual report on global risks that covers the factors and underlying drivers that could most likely disrupt global economic activity. Most of the time over the last decade, the survey of 900 global experts finds the top risks to revolve between potential economic events such as collapsing asset prices and underemployment, or potential environmental challenges such as flooding or water supply crises.

However, this year geopolitical risks have made a staggering jump to the forefront, reflecting the instability in the Middle East and North Africa, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the rise of terrorist groups such as ISIS and Boko Haram, and even tension in the South China Sea.


The above graph shows the change over the course of the last year. Risks such as state collapse or crisis, interstate conflict, terrorist attacks, and weapons of mass destruction have all soared. In fact, within the overall scope of all potential risks, interstate conflict is now ranked as the #1 risk in terms of likelihood, and #4 in terms of impact.

“Twenty-five years after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the world again faces the risk of major conflict between states,” said Margareta Drzeniek-Hanouz, lead economist at the World Economic Forum.


“However, today the means to wage such conflict, whether through cyberattack, competition for resources or sanctions and other economic tools, is broader than ever. Addressing all these possible triggers and seeking to return the world to a path of partnership, rather than competition, should be a priority for leaders as we enter 2015.”



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order66's picture

War is just QE4.

TeamDepends's picture

What is it good for?
Absolutely NUTHIN'

winchester's picture
winchester (not verified) TeamDepends Jun 13, 2015 5:23 AM

you say that coz you not on the proper side of the line my friend....

actually it would look like more as a circle than a line, a tiny circle, where  the rest of the world is outside of it of course.

MonetaryApostate's picture

The problem is this world is full of evil crooked people who would gladly rob their neighbor, if they could get away with it, and nothing is going to change, becuase nobody cares.  Worse yet, those who do care often stand alone or in too small of numbers to make a difference.  Unity was broke by the state, they cause division, and the purposefully keep everyone "Compartmentalized", even within the government, to keep everyone ignorant of what's really going on....  The internet isn't enough, because the NSA & government tools are everywhere, recording, watching, and stealing any intellectual property, dirt to be used legally, or anything else they can steal...


We live in a Plutocratic Corporate Kleptocracy...

Truthseeker2's picture

Yes, Agenda 21 and the REPORT FROM IRON MOUNTAIN spell this out, as does this essay --->


NWO Cabal Pursues Total Dominion Over The Earth’s Weather And Natural Resources

fascismlover's picture

Always happens when the world runs out of juice.  The juice is civilian blood and they are very short that now.  Once they get the fix, things will be better. 

TeamDepends's picture

Janet Napolitano said it would be a Tea Party Fanatic shooting a nano George Washington into your occipital lobe....

disabledvet's picture

After Armenia Ankara.

God forbid if Putin is overthrown.

disabledvet's picture

I am 100% serious when I say "take Putin up on his offer and nuke Crimea."

If he doesn't back down take out Armenia to let him know you take his threats seriously.

TungstenBars's picture

First, are you high or do you actually think, after all the information out there, that Russia is the aggressor?

Second, do you not understand that the US will get nuked 15 minutes later?

I await your response.

NoDecaf's picture

VA must be doling out some good meds...I think he's high as a kite.

trulz4lulz's picture

Bad sarcasm? I find it interesting they have interstate conflict rated at a higher probability than extreme weather. A tornado outbreak, hurricane, volcano, earthquake all rank pretty high.

knukles's picture

It might or might not even rain somewhere today.

Thirtyseven's picture

I like where they've placed "unmanageable inflation" on the chart.  Actually I don't, because it should be on the complete opposite side.

winchester's picture
winchester (not verified) disabledvet Jun 13, 2015 5:26 AM

I am 100% serious when I say "take Putin up on his offer and nuke Crimea."

If he doesn't back down take out Armenia to let him know you take his threats seriously.


you high as fly's looping above turds you spit out of your own mouth.

joseJimenez's picture

Why do you bother?  Don't you see he is looking to illicit just the response he is getting.  I am plenty pissed off but I am not going to let a jackass rile me up

BandGap's picture

He isn't completely wrong. Sorry, I never want to see a nuke war but what I want doesn't matter. That goes for pretty much all of us here.

The odds are pretty high some stupid with a flare gun is gonna burn the place to the ground.

Yen Cross's picture

 All part of the plan.

WTFUD's picture

Fortunately on his 2nd combat posting disabledvet took one in the head. Anywhere else it would've killed him.

falconflight's picture

Is this pretty chart showing any factors worse now than say in 1951, 1958, 1963, 1968, ect., except that the US too is a hollowed out Empire?

suteibu's picture

"Failure of climate change adaptation"

That pretty much damages the credibility of the whole report.  One would have to imagine that this is the fear-monger report, the items that will be stressed to gain more control over the public.

CPL's picture

Everything in the report is reporting on self created issues.  Only thing they need to do is smarten up, stay out of the troubles and the majority of all those "problems" they've created themselves go away the same day.  What these reports are actually produced for is for budget allocation and political validation, not solution development. 

Because as stated, the problems are all self inflicted nonsense.

falconflight's picture

For shits and giggles, Just posted at the uber .01% will survive.

TomGa's picture

The only question which crossed my mind is how will they get out post SHTF?  A few tons of boulders and concrete in front of those blast doors put there by the remaining pissed-off (X - 0.01%) could present a problem - or, heh heh, an opportunity.


Remember the scene from The Dirty Dozen where all the Germans got locked in the air raid bunker where they were seeking shelter but then grenades and gasoline were dumped in down the air vents? Talking about high value targets... I'm guessing this isn't brought up in their marketing prospectus.

falconflight's picture

Your unhappy ending for them is the giggles part of the story :)

Hope Copy's picture


Hope Copy's picture

the climate of eternal debt...  it just doesn't work!

WTFUD's picture

How many personal assistants are each allowed?

They'll be in there for at least 5-10 years maybe more, so what about refurbs?

q99x2's picture

should be a priority for leaders as we enter 2015

Come on you have to be kidding. To have leaders don't you need a country or are you suggesting that Kissinger,  Blankfein and Dimon aren't addressing these issues. What in the world are you talking about. Perhaps Puting and Xi. Not to mention that 2015 is half over.

discopimp's picture

Abolish the States.  Problem solved!

Karaio's picture

Make no mistake.

The Slavic, the guys who have blood Slavic (Poles, Russians, Czechs, Slovaks, Ukrainians etc.) are hard as stone.

I can write this because I come from Gozdawa Clan (look at Wikipedia).

Slavic can stand to some extent the bullshit of a ruler but when it gets too much, the people explode.

Any historian with half a brain or who has read a brochure know that the Roman Empire did not fall by the sword of Germans (Germans) or Saxons much less by "Anglos."

It fell because Slavs invaded Rome and passed the knife, looted, made the devil with the Romans.

After that, they returned home.

What's left of elites linked to the Roman Catholic Church created the feuds and organized themselves into kingdoms.

He turned his shit what is now Europe.

The Slavs in Russia endured until 1917 the feudal yoke and, guess what!

Passed again the iron, fire, hemp in the form of strings and lead and gunpowder ALL elite!

In the West believe that Russia "imploded"!

No, what happened was that they were all fed up, just do not more people died because it is not interesting to kill his brothers.

Russian Slavic endured Yeltsin swallowing bitterly democracy and elected Putin.

The same is happening in Ukraine, a lot of mercenaries against Ukrainian Donbass and other regions.

Make no mistake, if and when the Ukrainian Slavs settle, there will be a mercenary or "Yeat's" (the sweetheart Nuland) alive to tell the story of how they died or where they are buried.

Historically if you put on a graph (economists love graphics), the Slavs leave a government climb right but when stabilize, they die at the hands of the people.

Most of you have any pets at home, can be cat, dog, etc.

Well, I'll put a hunter language, I shoot with weapons since the age of seven and has hunted many animals in these my 52 years well lived.

The Slavs are and act exactly alike, I will explain:

A acoado animal, kicks at first.

Steps back to get a better view of how to protect / escape or attack.

In the second acoado moment, unable to flee attacks and strikes insanely aggressively.

Obama is acoando the Russian bear to a year and a half, he steps back, is watching the ground in front, tried to flee Ukraine, tries to flee Syria.

The Russian is acoado.

God have mercy on you.

If your President (US) acoar more.

We are on the threshold WW III.


: - /

winchester's picture
winchester (not verified) Karaio Jun 13, 2015 5:40 AM

bla bla bla, big dick, whatcha gonna do once nuke rainy day will be, hum ? genius... whatever the fuck race you from, if ww3 comes, boom, done, over, kaput, finito.

trust me, appart fucktards wishing  system to crash just to shoot humans for the " fun" of it ", you DO NOT want a ww3 to come.

Lordflin's picture

'Return the world to a path of partnership rather than competition'... is this a joke? This ship has long ago left port... no stopping it now...

Karaio's picture

I agree with you in gender, number and grade!

Shit has already begun and there is no stopping!

Until October, or we would all be bankrupt or in a nuclear war.

If you work in cargo ship, you know how things are going ...

Tick-tock, Tick-tock, Tick-tock, Tick-tock;


d edwards's picture

but if we had a nice global govt then everybody would have to get along. you know, like the EU. oops, bad example.

dogismycopilot's picture

The only thing that will save the world now is prayer. Lots of prayer for Obama to die says one Pastor. Check out Pastor Steven Anderson who is praying for Obama to die (yes, he did get a visit from the Secret Service telling him to STFU):

22winmag's picture

Yeah whatever. The largest army on earth is 10+ million heavily-armed pissed-off American milita members.


If you identify as an Ameircan citizens and own a long gun, you are already in the milita, like it or not.

Keynesians say the darndest things's picture

World War 3 soon komrades! False Flag attacks coming to a city near YOU!