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The Fed And Most Economists Are Nothing More Than Glorified Weather Rock Analysts

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Mark St.Cyr,

I must make one statement before I go on any further, for I believe it needs to be said as to clarify my intentions in writing the above headline. Let me first express my sincere apologies to weather-rock weathermen everywhere. At least you understand why the rock may, or may not, show signs for contemplation. The others have demonstrated far too many times by their own proclamations of analysis – they have no clue.

Let me put out another premise that should not be lost on anyone trying to figure out what they’ll both do in their business, as well as – with it. Because, unlike those of us that live and die by the decisions we need to make when it comes to pricing, inventories, labor, location, etc., etc. An economist not only is usually not on the same page as you or I. In most cases one can argue: they may not even be on the same planet.

“You know what the difference is between an Economist/Analyst and a Business-owner? When a Business-owner makes a prediction on his or her business and predicts wrong: The business as well as they could wind up in bankruptcy. When the Economist/Analyst makes a wrong prediction: They just make another prediction.”

So why the use of the proverbial “weather-rock” analogy you may be asking as it pertains to something so complex as the economy. Well, in many cases the economy is just as complex with just as many unknowns and misunderstood relationships as the weather. (Please, for the sake of this discussion refrain from interjecting any “climate change” arguments . Please! I’m begging you!!)

What was once a joke (e.g. the weather-rock) now seems to symbolize what today stands for “serious analysis” or “markers” as to base monetary policy decisions on. Today, forecasts of nearly any sort are adjusted more times as well as their initial direction of strength or lack of it making TV weatherman everywhere ask – “Dang! And they say we’re not reliable?”

Far worse, these predictions are made using data in every way that resembles the known use for proper analysis of the weather-rock. i.e., If it’s wet – it’s raining. If it’s cold – it’s cold outside. And as ridiculously obvious as the aforementioned example is. What seems lost on most economists (as well as the financial media as a whole) is that their version of a weather-rock is being manipulated as to be wet not from rain – but from someone dousing it with a garden hose or other source whenever needed.

Nevertheless – their resulting analysis would be the same: The rock (or data) is wet, therefore it must be raining.

It’s one thing for those who want to express their “brilliance” in professing this style of insight and/or analysis. We can pay attention, or not. It’s a far different thing when monetary policy that will affect not only your business or personal finances – but quite possibly the sovereignty of the monetary system as a whole I’ll argue – is quite another.

Today, the world of Ivory Towered Economists (ITE) and their prognostications have taken on an aire in quite the opposite direction as well as tone of what we’ve now come to expect when watching a local or even national weather broadcast. If a typhoon, monsoon, hurricane, you name it, is somewhere visible on the planet, whether it’s reached land or is 2000 miles out at sea. A diagnosis and analysis of the impending potential havoc will be strewn across your preferred media consumption device in a never-ending cycle of breaking news alerts with more force and rapidity; than the actual wind speeds of the rotating storm front itself.

As much as we may laud or laugh at the coverage, the fact is – at least there is a case to be made for the potential of such predictions coming to fruition. i.e., there is an actual visible storm. On the other hand, the ITE acknowledge more often than advisable prudence would allow for, that there is no need for concern. For after all – the “rock” is not wet. All in a reticent tone implying: No need to worry – “They’ve got your back.”

Then it’s up to you as to infer exactly “who’s” back do they indeed have? Yours? Or the banks and insurance companies? And if it’s the latter – does that translate into help for you after any such storm clears? If you want any clues on how much help the latter may provide – just ask anyone still trying to put their lives and homes together since Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Same goes for anyone trying to prudently protect their savings after the 2008 financial crisis.

The issue at hand is: far more people have discovered whether by chance or direct analysis of their own, both the Fed., as well as their gaggle of cohorts throughout academia, as well as in the financial media, are all watching and gaining their clues – from the same “rock.” Furthermore: It’s now self-evident to anyone willing to look. It’s not to see if the rock is wet, dry, or anything else. It’s to make the rock wet, dry, or anything else needed for the narrative. Because today; narrative trumps reality in today’s economic disciplines. For “Fake it till you make it” seems to have become the most dangerous expression of monetary policy group think the world has ever known.

GDP numbers not what you would like? (i.e., the rock is dry) Simply allow for some “double seasonally adjusted” garden hose operator to make it so. “Jobs” numbers showing too much, or too little, conflicting the narrative of why, or why not, raise rates? No problem. Put a hairdryer on it today, and the garden hose tomorrow. After all, wet is wet, and dry is dry, regardless of how, right? Caught in a quagmire of trying to fend off accusations that the rock is clearly visible? Again, no problem. Order up a fog machine and take to the podiums and pronounce: The data is a little murky. We’ll have to just wait and see. After all, who could argue with holding off any policy adjustments without clear visibility, correct?

As ludicrous as the above sounds. If one truly looks at just how the articulated views from both the Fed. as well as most other economists. I would venture to say it’s not that far removed as they would like one to think. And there’s also one other small truth that looms quite large in the annuls of their predicting prowess. Just like the weather-rock, the damaging effects as well as the outright disastrous implications are unseen by this crowd until the actual catastrophe is upon them.

One would have thought being in an Ivory Tower might have supplied a better advantage or viewpoint. Oh well!

 

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Sat, 06/13/2015 - 20:54 | 6194436 CaptainAmerika
CaptainAmerika's picture

In economics, the majority is always wrong.
http://philiacband.com/propaganda.html

Sat, 06/13/2015 - 21:48 | 6194535 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

In economics, both the left culture and the right culture are wrong.

Only freedom works.

Sat, 06/13/2015 - 21:52 | 6194550 petkovplamen
petkovplamen's picture

after 101 years of FED in USA you STILl talk about "freedom"? How deluded really ARE Americans?

Answer: VERY

Sun, 06/14/2015 - 06:23 | 6195071 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

but, yknow... everyone wants a rock to wind a piece of string around. rly

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkAJFOw_3OM

(clicking this link will take you to arguably the most inane song in history)

Sat, 06/13/2015 - 21:00 | 6194446 philipat
philipat's picture

Which is precisely why Economics is referred to as "The dismal science". Real science depends upon observations to confirm a hypothesis and if the observations do not confirm the hypothesis, the hypothesis is rejected. Now, let's look at ZIRP and QE.......................................

Sat, 06/13/2015 - 21:05 | 6194461 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Economists shouldn't predict the future. I don't mind if they analyze the past. In other "scientfic" occupations, people rarely predict the future. Those are usually activists or politicians. In this case, economists work for the same companies who have a stake in the economy, and they understand that sentiment is everything in an incredible instable and corrupt system. Their predictions actually influence the system. They know this, and it's why they make excuses for everything.

Sat, 06/13/2015 - 22:01 | 6194470 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

The FED had better find some gold paint for their weather rocks...

Sat, 06/13/2015 - 21:14 | 6194477 q99x2
q99x2's picture

It's not what you know it is who you know that will help you commit the fraud.

Sat, 06/13/2015 - 21:21 | 6194485 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

We have earned our voodoo economic MBA and graduated in 2007. 

Thank you Alan Greenspan, Timothy Geithner, and Hank Paulson. As Hank would say.. we we have have to t t t t p p p pass the t t t TARP e e e emergency p p p program. Only liers. S s s s stutter. 

Sat, 06/13/2015 - 21:30 | 6194493 JuliaS
JuliaS's picture

“Holmes and Watson are on a camping trip. In the middle of the night Holmes wakes up and gives Dr. Watson a nudge. "Watson" he says, "look up in the sky and tell me what you see."

"I see millions of stars, Holmes," says Watson.

"And what do you conclude from that, Watson?"

Watson thinks for a moment. "Well," he says, "astronomically, it tells me that there are millions of galaxies and potentially billions of planets. Astrologically, I observe that Saturn is in Leo. Horologically, I deduce that the time is approximately a quarter past three. Meterologically, I suspect that we will have a beautiful day tomorrow. Theologically, I see that God is all-powerful, and we are small and insignficant. Uh, what does it tell you, Holmes?"

"Watson, you idiot! Someone has stolen our tent!”

Sat, 06/13/2015 - 21:35 | 6194511 suteibu
suteibu's picture

I don't know why we can't talk about climate change when discussing economics.  In fact, climate change "science" and the propaganda that is based on that "science" is very similar to the "science" of economics and the propaganda based on that "science." 

  • They are both made up sciences whereby the political and financial (scam) agendas are determined first followed by the "science" used to sell them to the public. 
  • One intent of both is to gain more control over the daily lives of everyday people.
  • The bottom line, however, is to extract as much wealth from the population as possible to feed the pathological egos of our betters.
  • Lies must be told on a daily basis in order to keep the scams from collapsing, much like a Chinese spinning plate acrobat.
  • The same governments and private interests that back both "sciences" are the greatest beneficiaries of the schemes.
  • The hubris of those who believe they can control a complex, living organism like a market-based economy is exceeded only by the those who believe they can control the complex system children know as Mother Nature.

To be sure, there are even more similarities.

Sat, 06/13/2015 - 21:41 | 6194519 Aquarius
Aquarius's picture

One finds in the first instance, in this Collective known as "economists" B Grade intelligence - no Intellect, the Primary desire to be consensually conformal, Political Correctitude that is to say, the inability to cognitively challenge the theory, the consensus, the hierarchy, the system, or to think outside that which keeps them warm. In other words, the Subjective sense to hide within the colleaguial crowd of meal-ticket "we are important: ego's and vanity of self.

This attitude is symptomatic of the Bureaucrat (read v. Mises on the Bureaucrat) that is 2nd rate intelligence that infests always government and secure Collectives. Birds of a feather...

It is not their fault; this is their nature but why do we construct this type of government system (and especially Banking system) that allows this meal-ticket infestation of incometence dominate the unique and infintite abilities of Humanity? We place those that would destroy humanity through their ego's and ignorance, together with their crass incompetences, at that place in our Societies that is critical for the betterment of our children and their futures.

Is this the best we can do? Can we not see that it is our organizations of our own Society, that has been handed down from the past 7,000 years, or so, that is destroying us?

A change of attitude among Society's Humanity to totally re-design and re-create a Governance system - and this includes all such systems especially the Banking system - is not that difficult. Drop the being Policial Correct - we have the facts at hand and Human Nature never changes.

Let us rise to our potential - to our humanity and defeat this disease of ignorance and piety once and for all.

http://verbewarp.blogspot.com.au/2013/04/to-be-or-not-to-be.html

http://verbewarp.blogspot.com.au/2011/08/delusional-economics.html

"Man is made by his belief. As he believes, so he is."  Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
Sun, 06/14/2015 - 06:28 | 6195075 NoPension
NoPension's picture

I have oftened contemplated, " thank goodness, that idiot in charge does not have a brain".

All in all, with the power available, it seems to make sense that the vast majority of .gov are bumbling idiots. I simply pine for a more "Darwinian" existance. We certainly do seem to have evolved into a society with a vast population of useless eaters.

But, who am I to judge?

Sat, 06/13/2015 - 21:45 | 6194530 MedicalQuack
MedicalQuack's picture

Quant Paul Wilmott says it all about economists...

“Economists, They Think That They are Scientists, They Come Up With What They Call Laws, They’re Not Laws” "it's just a framework or an idea that may or may not work, built on a very shaky foundation, and they get all kinds of nonsense coming out it"...

http://ducknetweb.blogspot.com/2015/05/economists-they-think-that-they-are.html

By the way this is clip from the Quant of Wall Street documentary that was released 3 days before the flash crash...talk about intelligence, these guys have it..full video is over the the Attack of the Killer Algorithms collection, a couple of which have been added that are credited to being on Zero Hedge..the gold videos..I call it Algo Duping 101...it's a mixture of mathematicians, quants, and other smart people who have a lot to add...they talk real world and not virtual values...I just love the economist clip though..it's so true...

http://www.ducknet.net/attack-of-the-killer-algorithms/

 

Sat, 06/13/2015 - 21:53 | 6194552 Counterpunch
Counterpunch's picture

thanks, great stuff, actually.

Sat, 06/13/2015 - 22:05 | 6194569 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

   Batshit looney dreamlanders Trippin on L.. They should be digging the ditches to put all the banksters to rest in. 

 But really its math without ever taking a single good measurement. All the calculations are based on known bad measurements.

Sat, 06/13/2015 - 22:33 | 6194624 VWAndy
VWAndy's picture

Dine and Dash boys, thats the big plan.

Sun, 06/14/2015 - 07:24 | 6195096 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

Two points, 1. Amerikans are too damn Fat to dash. 2. Even so, the poor waitress must pay.

Sun, 06/14/2015 - 01:12 | 6194873 roddy6667
roddy6667's picture

Economists have failed to predict all the recessions.
ALL.

They exist to make astrologers and weathermen look good.

Sun, 06/14/2015 - 02:57 | 6194931 jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6sH9lYCMf1w

 

i should care, but i dont, my peanuts exceed all stardards, im making a rocket outta here, im making a human do over.

 

later fuckers

Sun, 06/14/2015 - 07:09 | 6195091 Arnold
Arnold's picture

As the late ,great, Economist Milton Friedman once said:

 

"Pardon me while I use the restroom."

Sun, 06/14/2015 - 09:13 | 6195202 Last of the Mid...
Last of the Middle Class's picture

Government economists as well as scientist ALWAYS work backward. Take the desired result and manipulate the data to get there. What could possibly go wrong.

Sun, 06/14/2015 - 10:41 | 6195328 Reaper
Reaper's picture

It's the logical error of expecting authority to be a valid argument. Who made them authorities? What god validated their indoctrinated dogma? Power corrupts. Money corrupts. Trust corrupts. What god gave them their prophecies?

Sun, 06/14/2015 - 11:08 | 6195376 nostromo17
nostromo17's picture

ABsolutely true. Economics as currently practiced by central banks is by no means a science. Economics is no more than ruling class disinfomative propaganda. The relationship between economies and "statistical economies" is specious and vague at best....

Abandon the fed who feeds all these useless shits and start a new emergence of actual economics...

Sun, 06/14/2015 - 18:16 | 6196307 RMolineaux
RMolineaux's picture

The author of this item needs to bone up on grammar school grammar.  For example: what is a sentence?

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