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Bank Of America Begins 66-Day Countdown Until The "Ghost Of 1937" Returns

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In 66 trading days on September 17, 2015, the Federal Reserve will, according to Bank of America, hike rates for the first time since 2006, which according to BofA will "end the era of excess liquidity."

We disagree entirely, but let's hear what BofA's Michael Hartnett has to say:

On September 17th the Fed will hike the Fed funds rate by 25bps according to Ethan Harris & our US economics team, the first hike since June 2006. 

 

Recent US economic data support this view, in particular the solid May payroll & retail sales reports. Note that after a Q1 wobble, one of our favorite cyclical indicators, US small business confidence, has also bounced back into expansionary territory. Ethan Harris forecasts 3.4% US GDP growth in Q2, after 0.2% in Q1, and US rates strategist Priya Misra forecasts a Fed funds rate of 0.5% by year-end, and 1.5% by end-2016. Like Ethan & Priya, the futures market also looks for a modest Fed tightening cycle: Eurodollar futures contracts are currently pricing in 3-month rates in the US rising from 0.01% today to 0.65% by year-end, and to 1.54% by end-2016.

Yes, the US economy is so strong the Bureau of Economic Analysis has to fabricate double seasonal adjustments to goalseek GDP data that is non-compliant with the narrative. As for economists being wrong about a rate hike, or overestimating future US growth, let's just say it won't be the first time they are wrong...

Still, one thing BofA is right about: this time the normalization process will be different.

Past Fed performance is no guide to future performance

 

Gradual or otherwise, the first interest rate hike by the Fed since June 2006 marks a major inflection point for financial markets. Three reasons suggest that the impact of higher Fed rates will be far less predictable than normal, that historical comparisons may be less powerful, and that volatility across both credit & equity markets should continue to be owned.

Actually, the main reason is one, and it is very simple. It is shown in the chart below.

Here are some other reasons why the Fed's rate hike will lead to a period of, to put it mildly, volatility which "will mark the beginning of the end of massive monetary easing and a collapse of interest rates to effectively zero across the globe, and follows a humungous bull market in both equities and credit in the past 6 years:"

  • Central banks now own over $22 trillion of financial assets, a figure that exceeds the annual GDP of US & Japan
  • Central banks have cut interest rates 577 times since Lehman, a rate cut once every three 3 trading days
  • Central bank financial repression created $6 trillion of negatively-yielding global government bonds earlier this year
  • 45% of all government bonds in the world currently yield <1% (that’s $17.4 trillion of bond issues outstanding)
  • US corporate high grade bond issuance as a % of GDP has doubled to almost 30% since the introduction of ZIRP
  • US small cap 5-year rolling returns hit 30-year highs (28%) in recent quarters
  • The US equity bull market is now in the 3rd longest ever
  • 83% of global equity markets are currently supported by zero rate policies

Put simply, central bank's provision of liquidity for financial markets has been unprecedented. The extent of Wall Street addiction to liquidity is about to be revealed and the potential for unintended consequences is clearly high.

Which is not to say that attempts to "renormalize" rates are unheard of: previously both Israel and the RBNZ tried it and failed, with markets promptly forcing them to reverse tightening.

More notably, it was the ECB itself which in April of 2011 under Jean-Claude Trichet tried to halt Chinese inflation exports in their tracks, and pulled off one rate hike... before the wheels came off from under Europe and the continent promptly entered a double dip recession, leading not only to a return to ZIRP, and the replacement of Trichet with an Italian Goldman Sachs apparatchik, but ultimately pushed Europe into its first ever NIRP episode.

But no episode is more notable than what happened in the US in 1937, smack in the middle of the Great Depression. This is the only time in US history which is analogous to what the Fed will attempt to do, and not only because short rates collapsed to zero between 1929-36 but because the Fed’s balance sheet jumped from 5% to 20% of GDP to offset the Great Depression.

Just like now.

And then, briefly, the economy started to improve superficially, just like now, and as a result the Fed tightened in a series of three steps between Aug’36 & May’37, doubling reserve requirements from $3bn to $6bn, causing 3-month rates to jump from 0.1% in Dec’36 to 0.7% in April’37.

Here is a detailed narrative of precisely what happened from a recent Bridgewater note:

The first tightening in August 1936 did not hurt stock prices or the economy, as is typical.

 

The tightening of monetary policy was intensified by currency devaluations by France and Switzerland, which chose not to move in lock-step with the US tightening. The demand for dollars increased. By late 1936, the President and other policy makers became increasingly concerned by gold inflows (which allowed faster money and credit growth). 

 

The economy remained strong going into early 1937. The stock market was still rising, industrial production remained strong, and inflation had ticked up to around 5%. The second tightening came in March of 1937 and the third one came in May. While neither the Fed nor the Treasury anticipated that the increase in required reserves combined with the sterilization program would push rates higher, the tighter money and reduced liquidity led to a sell-off in bonds, a rise in the short rate, and a sell-off in stocks. Following the second increase in reserves in March 1937, both the short-term rate and the bond yield spiked.

 

Stocks also fell that month nearly 10%. They bottomed a year later, in March of 1938, declining more than 50%!

Or, as Bank of America summarizes it: "The Fed exit strategy completely failed as the money supply immediately contracted; Fed tightening in H1’37 was followed in H2’37 by a severe recession and a 49% collapse in the Dow Jones."

As can be seen on the above, in 1938, the stock market began to recover some. However, despite the easing stocks didn't fully regain their 1937 highs until the end of the war nearly a decade later.

Wait, the Fed hiked only to easy? That's right: in response to the second increase in reserves that March, Treasury Secretary Morgenthau was furious and argued that the Fed should offset the "panic" through open market operations to make net purchases of bonds. Also known now as QE. He ordered the Treasury into the market to purchase bonds itself.

Fed Chairman Eccles pushed back on Morgenthau urging him to balance the budget and raise tax rates to begin to retire debt.

How quaint: once upon a time the US actually had an independent Fed, not working on behalf of the banks, and pushing back on pressure to monetize debt and raise stock prices.

Those days are long gone.

So is the imminent rate hike which guarantees the ghost of 1937 is about to wake up and lead to stock losses which could make the Lehman crash seem like a dress rehearsal just the precursor to QE4, as happened nearly 80 years ago? We don't know, but neither does the manager of the world's biggest hedge fund. This is what Ray Dalio says ahead of the upcoming rate hike:

... in our opinion, inadequate attention is being paid to the risks of a downturn in which central bankers' abilities to ease are significantly impaired. Please understand that we are not sure of anything but, for the reasons explained, we do not want to have any concentrated bets, especially at this time.

We don't know either, but we do know that if the S&P is cut in half the Fed will launch not just QE4, but 5, 6 and so on, resulting in every other central bank doing the same as global currency war goes nuclear, and the race to the final currency collapse enters its final lap.

 

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Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:11 | 6200396 greenskeeper carl
greenskeeper carl's picture

yes, please....

(not getting my hopes up)

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:13 | 6200408 jaap
jaap's picture

Only 49%?

This time there are no real buyers anymore

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:22 | 6200439 Usurious
Usurious's picture

 

 

what does Hillsenrat say?........

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:39 | 6200476 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

He sez you need to buy MOAR shit that you do not need or cannot afford.

 

Anyway...So Bunk of America is projecting an August 20 collapse.

 

Right in line with the Shemitah.

 

(Just because YOU, the reader, may not believe in God does not mean that the ones in power do not. And those that do believe in God will do their damndest to make the prophecy fulfill itself. They believe that they are fulfilling "God's will" in doing so. Heads up. Lloyd Blankfein actually believes that he is doing God's work.)

 

Looking forward to September...

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:54 | 6200529 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

You got God confused with Lucifer, TT.

(Just because YOU, the reader, may not believe in Lucifer does not mean that the ones in power do not. And those that do believe in Lucifer will do their damndest to make the prophecy fulfill itself. They believe that they are fulfilling "Lucifer's will" in doing so. Heads up. Lloyd Blankfein actually believes that he is doing Lucifer's work.)

This is how the shit-show is run.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:02 | 6200546 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

No. I do not have God confused with Lucifer. I am not illuminati. I am diametrically opposed

 

As for Lloyd Blankfein and the rest?

 

Even the Satanists believe in God. They just worship the wrong one.

 

But ALL THINGS work toward the glory of God...even that evil which the Satanists do.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:08 | 6200563 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Stand by for no bid… no F’ng bid.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:43 | 6200626 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

66 days huh?

That's like 33 times 2 (II) !!

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:49 | 6200774 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

Thank God the Fed knows how to push a string into the wind.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:11 | 6200805 MonetaryApostate
MonetaryApostate's picture

The clock is ticking on everyone, whether they know it or not....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrNn9OFX5sk

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:08 | 6200565 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Didn't say you were. It's clear you're on the right team.

Especially with that last line. Very few ever figure that out.

It's just the carnage in-between that's hard to stomach.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:35 | 6200609 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

This is all smoke and mirrors, they raise rates in two days not two months. If they have to raise how will they do it after Greece has defaulted and the war jitters start? It's now or never and I believe someone gave them the tap on the shoulder

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 10:37 | 6201610 The Merovingian
The Merovingian's picture

Right said Fred.  Here comes Janet's little prick when no one is looking.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:58 | 6200789 cyberfossil
cyberfossil's picture

Especially with that last line. Very few ever figure that out.

Apropros-hope you are on the right team:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEV4Tov1GBM


Tue, 06/16/2015 - 10:20 | 6201552 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Cyberfossil I prefer country but same message. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gkw24J1GU7A

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:00 | 6200548 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

He didn't say which god.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:55 | 6200533 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Articles like this make me pine for the days where Bernanke was at the helm of the ship.  That man knew how to drop money when money needed to be dropped.  Janet doesn't have the chops.  When this whole thing starts sliding off the edge of the table, she'll freeze like the scared little rabbit she is, do little to nothing, and set the table for WWIII, just like she's supposed to.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:43 | 6200756 MonetaryApostate
MonetaryApostate's picture

"You can't taper a ponzi-scheme!" - Max Keiser

(I'm with max on this, the shit is going to hit the fan in 3 months!)

That would put us @ September 21rst yes?

(The crash would follow shortly thereafter)

https://youtu.be/rdpBZ5_b48g

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 04:45 | 6200970 crazytechnician
crazytechnician's picture

The can has been kicked since 1971 , do not underestimate the longevity of the boot.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 11:20 | 6201817 marathonman
marathonman's picture

The Bank of England has kicked the can for 300 years.  The Fed has kicked the can for 100 years.  I wouldn't necessarily bet against them.  They own most of the world and are going for the rest. 

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:01 | 6200551 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

As someone who believes in God, I do not go out of my way to make his will happen.  I figure, 'Hey, he's God.  He doesn't need me to do anything but believe.' 

Of course if you claim to believe but do not have faith, then you need to make it happen to justify yourself.

I guess maybe that is the difference between faith and religion.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:38 | 6200613 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

"As someone who believes in God".

You think you believe in God. An idea implanted in your mind at a very young age is indistinguishable from a personal thought, a thought you arrived at under your own volition, under your own analysis. We are all progranmed from birth by our parents, our friends, our teachers and the MSM, in that order. We are biological automatons. You cannot escape this. You are fed information subject to centuries of bias and distortion and cultural nuance.

There may or may not be a god but the inescapable fact is, no one can know, no one can ever know. Theists will invoke basic emotion at best and magic at worst to win their argumant but this is the working of an infantile mind. "I feel" gods presence is a common theistic retort. No - you have been programmed to display the same emotions and use the same descriptive words as millions of your predecessors. Your subjective world has been largely implanted by society. You cannot tell any difference so will argue ferociously to the contrary. A true product of the matrix. 

In the coming years I suspect we are going to see a level of suffering that will leave us all stone cold to any belief in a higher power. This shit show that is life cannot have been created by an infinitely high power. Why make animals suffer as they do? Why make innocent humans suffer as they do? Life is the equivalent of a mechanical process, unfortunately this alone is enough to explain the horror that goes on in this world. If you are an innocent human and suffer horribly in this life, why the fuck do you need god, what's the point? You'd be suffering equally if there was no god.

You needn't be scared of this revelation because there is nothing you can do about it. 

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:02 | 6200674 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

BOTA,

There is a need for God in each of us- it is part of our genome- because we are created by God.

We are all fed information, for sure. It is up to each of us to use our all of our God given gifts to discern the truth.

When you state that "There may or may not be a god but the inescapable fact is, no one can know, no one can ever know",

you aren't considering what will happen in the end- as foretold in the Bible.

Some theists, it is true- work on emotion, primarily. (Again, using the gifts God gave them).

Others use research, intellectualism, math, logic, etc. (Again, using the gifts God gave them).

We will, indeed, see suffering unlike anything that history has ever before recorded- and most of us commenting here on ZH will see it before we pass on.

But that will be the harbinger of the return of Jesus Christ, just as He foretold, so it will be a litmus test of those who believe in God, and those who do not.

Humans suffer because they fell from grace- Jesus Christ established the way for all suffering to end.

Jesus Christ Himself suffered- we should expect to suffer as well,- a servant is not greater than his master.

There is everything we can do about it- we can accept Jesus Christ as our personal Lord and Savior!

 

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:07 | 6200682 Counterpunch
Counterpunch's picture

A casual stroll through the lunatic asylum shows that faith does not prove anything.

     - Friedrich Nietzsche

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:10 | 6200689 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

"And without faith it is impossible to please God, because anyone who comes to him must believe that he exists and that he rewards those who earnestly seek him." - God

-(Hebrews 11:6)

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:18 | 6200706 Counterpunch
Counterpunch's picture

"God for you is where you sweep away all the mysteries of the world, all the challenges to our intelligence. You simply turn your mind off and say God did it." - Carl Sagan (1934-1996), Contact

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:26 | 6200718 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

Au contraire, those with faith seek to explain the mysteries of the world- and are successful in doing so- precisely because they do not shut their minds to the truth that God created everything, in the beginning.

"Mae prawf y pwdin yn y bwyta." - some Welsh guy

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:33 | 6200742 Counterpunch
Counterpunch's picture

thats why those with faith attributed disease to sin, and not germs - confusing believing something is the case with having knowledge something is the case, derived from empirical verification.

 

You place the word/label "God" in, and think you've gained knowledge? This is weapons grade stupidity.

 

We may as well resume burning women as witches, witchcraft being in the bible, donchyaknow.  And stoning to death people teenagers who scream at their parents 'I hate you' after an argument.

 

And so forth.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:03 | 6200796 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Yeah. I am happy that you expose that you espouse Nietzsche's philosophy.

 

You have read "Beyond Good and Evil", right? I have. What a classic work! It promotes a relative morality where the practioner can spew lies to serve...himself...when he sees fit.

 

Yes. So did Alaistair Crowley read Nietzsche.

 

Celebrate the flesh. Do as thou wilt is the entireity of the Law. Lying is good whereas the truth is evil if it does not serve one's self.

 

Nietzxche was more of a Satanist than an atheist. He transformed himself into his own God, the most extreme form of psychopathic narcissism.

 

Today's neoatheism is nothing more than Satanism in disquise.

 

It is Zionism in a sense.

 

Waging war by deception is the hallmark slogan, the creed of the Mossad, after all. And Satan is the father of deception.

 

Thanks for exposing yourself. Really. I enkoy reading the musings of narcissistic psychopaths as it telegraphs the evil which the future beholds.

 

You espouse Nietzsche's philosophy after all. It is evidential as you have quoted him enough.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:44 | 6200856 Counterpunch
Counterpunch's picture

Hi TT, no I wouldnt say I 'espouse' his philosophy, but I do espouse the succinct wisdom of that particular quote.

 

As to moral relativism, I have to part ways with you on how I look at that, too, and sure a nietzsche quote will suffice:  'there are no moral phenomena at all, only a moral interpretation of phenomena'

 

Yes, there are Kant's arguments and natural law arguments - but these don't actually get around Nietzche's ontological framing - what morality is - is a judgment as to the goodness/rightness of something. 

Morality is inherently relative, for sure.  This needn't mean chaos.

 

I also like William James' and Dewey's Pragmatism.

 

In terms of ethics - I go with secular humanism.  Radically anti-war and anti-violence. 

 

If you've noticed, I've elected to sidestep your ad hominem.

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 02:43 | 6200911 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Nietzsche pisses me off as he is a narcissistic psychopath. Thanks for your forgiving oversight as I allowed my emotions, my zeal, to get the best of me...again.

 

I just get blinded by anger...at what Secular Humanism breeds.

 

I understand that Secular Humanism is Satanism. Morality is not relative when one accepts the Kingdom of God. 

 

I can state that the true practice of "Relative Morality" is no better than that which happens in the Animal Kingdom.

 

Now in the Animal Kingdom killing and warfare are endemic. So is enslavement and farming. Cannibalism. Homosexuality. Pederasty and pedophillia. Incest. Beastiality. Theft.

 

 I can give you many examples..from warring ants to aphid farming ants. And that is in just one order, Hymenoptera.

 

Homosexuality is endemic amongst many orders and species of animals. Secular Humanists may believe that is okay that it happens with humans. In Greece and the Balkans, ancient and modern, Men-Boy Sex is expected and required, even to this modern day. NAMBLA does not exist by accident. It is wrong and the practitioners know it. That is why they hide it.

 

Girls are impregnated when they become "of age", the onset of menstruation. That happens across many cultures here on Earth.

 

Ritual Cannibalism even still happens to this day in some cultures. It is not widely reported but there are still incidents in New Guinea.

 

Child Rape still happens in many, many cities acrss the Globe including the USA.

 

In fact there are districts in the USA where the Police intentionally turn a blind eye while boys are picked up by the uberwealthy and Sodomized. I WATCHED THAT HAPPEN IN PHOENIX...TWELVE HOURS PER DAY FOR THREE WEEKS.

 

Interspecies sex happens in the Animal Kingdom naturally. Beastiality is practiced. If it is natural then do it?

 

But that is nothing different than what happens in the Animal Kingdom.

 

That is the fruits of Secular Humanism. Do what thou wilt.

 

We are separate from the animals. We inherently know right from wrong.

 

You do. I do.

 

Now mother never taught me not to have sex with animals. I know that would not only be wrong but disgusting.

 

And mother never taught me not to have sex with kids...even when I was a kid.  Neither did the INDOCTRINATORS, the teachers in the School System and "Religious Leaders" (I really did not go to church much as a child. Thankfully I was spared that.) Yet somehow I knew that it would be wrong and shameful.

 

In fact we knew that there was something wrong about that. We, even as children, knew that it was forbidden to have sex with another child, and we knew INHERENTLY where to draw our own lines, set our own boundaries, when exploring and experimenting. Who or what told us.

 

There is no restrictions placed upon the animals. There is this one species of monkey where if they are not out gathering food then it is a constant orgy...regardless of sex, age, or whether or not any of them are in Esterus.

 

It is definitely a non reproductive activity.

 

How about INCEST? It happens in the Animal Kingdom.

 

It is TABOO in our culture. How does one know that one is not to have sex with blood relatives or siblings? It takes a will to overcome that TABOO and violate it.

 

We were given a conscience...a spirit.

 

And that is what separates us from the Animal Kingdom. It is a profound difference.

 

Relative Morality does not work when one has a conscience.

 

The battle is being waged between the spirit and the flesh...our conscience against our Animal Instincts.

 

 

 

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 06:05 | 6201004 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

TT, do you agree with capital punishment?

At what age is it permissible for two humans to copulate? Does your innate sense of morality dictate this age to be 18 years or 17 years or 16 years or 15 years and 6 months.

We will be very quickly entrenched in relative morality.

I keep banging the same drum and you guys just don;'t get it or are simply unwillingly to accept that all these innate feelings you THINK ARE INNATE are programmed either genetically or via cultural norms.

You know as well as I do that incest has been largely been selected out of a higher organism repertoire because the resultant offsrping are more than likely to be unviable.

Our conscience is a complex interplay of social norms and psychology (including guilt and many other emotions). If conscience was god given native tribes would display the same flavour of morality as we do (as in modern western man), but they don't. so haven't you lost that argument just fair and square right there.

I reckon you constantly mix up reality with your hoped for reality. Is this not a fair call?

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 06:34 | 6201024 Amish FinEng
Amish FinEng's picture

Yes it's true. I saw GOD here on http://www.zerohedge.com, last Sunday.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 09:33 | 6201359 IdiotsOutWalkin...
IdiotsOutWalkingAbout's picture

"Ritual Cannibalism even still happens to this day in some cultures. It is not widely reported but there are still incidents in New Guinea."

TT, please explain how Holy Communion is not ritual cannibalism? (Eat, drink. This is my body and blood, given and shed for you for the remission of sin.)

If the idea of cannibalism is so replulsive to you (as it is to me), how can you not see that it is embedded in Christianity's Bible and is a fundamental pillar of the faith? At it's bloody heart, Christianity is a death cult.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 15:47 | 6203058 Zoomorph
Zoomorph's picture

Counterpunch,

Thank you for being logical, presenting clear arguments, and avoiding personal attacks.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:23 | 6200717 erg
erg's picture

Let's face it folks, we're barely out of the trees. Any possible concepts of any kind of god-thing have to be greatly stunted at best. As a collective, forever steeped in our own fecund stupidity we think we have it all figured out.

It's absurd. Look at us, we're a complete fucking mess. Figuratively, spiritually, everything.

Can't find our own well-lit ass.

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:28 | 6200725 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

Yeah, we're all collectively imperfect.

But God sent His only begotten Son to show us the way.

Accepting Jesus Christ as your Lord and Savior is the path to salvation, as well as understanding.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:38 | 6200748 erg
erg's picture

More ephemeral schisms. Not that I've completely discounted the possibility.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 09:50 | 6201412 cheech_wizard
cheech_wizard's picture

Belief, . .is all we got to separate us from being a chunk.



Tue, 06/16/2015 - 02:09 | 6200871 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

 

 

Ruled by Aliens - 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jwceq1HzjxU

 

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:20 | 6200704 Charming Anarchist
Charming Anarchist's picture

A man without faith is insane. It is impossible for man to have "proof" of everything he must believe.  At the very least, man must have faith that the sun will re-appear in the east tomorrow in and around the same time as it did today. 

Faith is part of the human condition.  Without some sort of belief in the unknown, man would never venture out of the cave. 

 

I bet an ounce of Ag that 99% of the folks reading this believe 99% of the "science" they were taught as incontrovertible truth and yet, most of it is fudged and deliberately falsefied.  If you can not think of at least 1 example of the lies you were taught in grade school, then you are unwittingly a man of faith. Your religion is "science" of intellectual statism. 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:41 | 6200729 Counterpunch
Counterpunch's picture

wrong. 

A person who confuses faith with knowledge is insane.

A person who understands that his knowledge is imperfect and possibly wrong understands science.


'Apodictic truth' is the realm of religion and metaphysics, and not science. 

Religion explained disease as arising from sin - imagine if we accepted that false knowledge as "truth" forever and prohibited all inquiries otherwise.


Religion burned people at the stake for translating the bible.  It commanded Galileo to recant. It has made Jerusalem and environs the bloodiest place on earth.


Dont confuse religious faith with knowledge derived from empirical verification. 


The man of faith claims that his belief is true because he believes it

The man of science claims that his belief is true, until proven otherwise, based on empirical verification.


As for your ethics and values - secular humanism is at least as good, and probably a better candidate than a set of rules falsely attributed to a non-existent entity.

 

It's 2015.  Stop adhering to the fallacy that the finite, imperfect nature of human knowledge entitles you to believe something, without evidence, then claim it is true, because you believe it is true, and then claim that OTHER PEOPLE WHO ALSO BELIEVE SOMETHING DIFFERENT VIA THEIR OWN FAITH ARE WRONG... BECAUSE YOU THINK THEY ARE.

{to dumb this down - why are you right but a Jew or Taoist or worshipper of Odin wrong? Because you "believe" they are?  They believe the same about you!}


Your position is epistemological solipsism - and it is absurd, it disproves itself.

 

If I have faith Seek Truth is an agent of the Devil and his sacred book was written by demons - it is true, because I have faith it is true, thereby Seek Truth can not have faith otherwise, because it he did, his believe would be true - but it can not be, because I have faith that something else is true, and my faith determines truth....

 

edit:  p.s. it is fine, mroe than fine to junk a post - but it is a dick move to do it so quickly it is clear you can't have read the post.  If you can't be bothered to read it, dont pretend you did.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:44 | 6200762 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

Faith and knowlege are two separate things.

So are knowledge and wisdom.

And knowledge and science are two different things.

Disease does arise from sin - this has never been proved or unproved- yet knowledge, wisdom, and faith lead to this conclusion.

"Religion" has certainly led to many positive and negative outcomes for humanity.

That is why there is a distinction between true religion and false religion.

"By their fruits you shall know them" - Matthew 7:16

Your comment about "empirical verification" has become, for the most part, meaningless in today's world of bought and paid for $cience.

There is a huge body of evidence to prove that God exists, that He created all things, that we are living in the last days.

Again, "The proof of the pudding is in the eating" - some Welsh guy.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:53 | 6200781 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

"There is a huge body of evidence to prove that God exists"

I think we need to have a long hard talk about the word "evidence".

For a start the bible is absolutely impermissible as evidence as in every way a science book is impermissible as evidence of any of its claims.

I'll humour you and ask you to state one of your proofs that god exists. This is going to be earth shattering because this is exactly what I am looking for, proof. This is as exciting as my personal journey through science, philoosphy. religion, psychology, history and politics is ever going to get. AT LAST, SOMEONE HAS PROOF :) 

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:11 | 6200804 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

We've been to this movie before, BOTA.

Do you ever get out?

Hike.

Try it- observe what you see.

Think about it.

This planet, and all the minerals, flora, fauna, and humans- didn't "happen" by chance.

Math proves this, as well as our observational powers.

"For since the creation of the world God’s invisible qualities—his eternal power and divine nature—have been clearly seen, being understood from what has been made, so that people are without excuse." - Romans 1:20

PS- It's getting late here.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 02:17 | 6200879 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Going for a hike is not evidence of gods existence. I get tired of these christian "rainbows are so pretty they must be created by god" argument.

There is outstanding beauty in this world and no doubt on millions of other planets in the universe.

It's tiring that you use the term "powers of observation" as a form of evidence, OH IF ONLY SCIENCE WAS SO EASY.

I suggest you read "A Living Planet" and "Life on Earth" by David Attenborough. 

"This planet, and all the minerals, flora, fauna, and humans- didn't "happen" by chance. Math proves this"

Math proves this? Riiiiiiight. Are you telling tarry diddles here Seek. PROVES. Did I read this correctly?

And if there are an infinite number of parallel universes then this concept of absolute precision of certain key constants collapses like a wave function.

There is no proof seek, it's a shame that the moral concept of honesty could not draw us both to the same conclusion. But as George Costanza said "It's not a lie if you believe it".

I'll accept proof, instantly. You offer up nothing more than highly emotional sentiment book ended in scientific nomenclature. 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 08:48 | 6201225 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

who designed the process of photosynthesis?   You seem pretty intelligent...would you agree it takes intelligence in order to design a complex organism?   I tell you show me proof a skyscrapper can be erected without a plan and design first or better yet show me a painting that is hanging on a wall that does not come from the mind of an artist.   Show one invention on this earth that came about on it's own and was not invented or designed by a person, just one please.

 

I'm sorry I don't mean to insult you but anyone who believes the complex human genome is not a design that took a designer is pretty damn ignorant.   I will you give you this ....you have an incredible amount of FAITH!   Because when one sees all the complexity of design weaved through out nature and processes in nature, and then believes they came about by chance and not through some intelligent designer then that takes a lot of FAITH!!   Atheist have more faith then Diest!

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 09:43 | 6201389 Mayer Amschel R...
Mayer Amschel Rothschild's picture

Black holes, anti-matter, parallel universes, spontaneous originial creation of life, anthropomorphic global warming, fossil fuels, and other fantastic bed-time stories courtesy of the highest levels of blind faith in the religion of Science.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 09:59 | 6201444 IdiotsOutWalkin...
IdiotsOutWalkingAbout's picture

If God was such a perfect designer, why put a common inlet on the human airway and its cakehole? That is a stupid, dangerous design, a built in choking hazard. Why not make teeth last a lifetime? The earth is 2/3 water. Where are my webbed fingers and toes; maybe a standby gill system for breatheing when I fall in? Who the F*ck can't think of an improved human design? And I'm not even claiming to be God. Just a human frustrated by physical problems that constantly limit what my brain would permit me to do.

BTW fundamentalists geniuses ought to own up to the fact that even the Creator must have been confused, because in Genesis 1 He creates man and woman equal and in his image while he's make all the other animals and then in Genesis 2 the writer comes up with the woman made from Adam's rib myth. These are two distinctly different creation stories: two distinctly different women. The first was Lilith and the second was Eve.

In the beginning, God created the conflicting text in the Bible. Yeppers. Next, all the faithful explain it with the blanket statement: God works in mysterious ways.

Let's just go there now and get it over with.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 10:33 | 6201597 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

If you are responding to me, I didn't mention anything about the creation story in Genesis.   You obviously have been hurt or deeply influenced by some fundamentalist and some very peripheral knowledge of the bible.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 12:10 | 6202101 IdiotsOutWalkin...
IdiotsOutWalkingAbout's picture

Actually, I am a lifetime student of world religions. Started Sunday School at age three with the Lutherans and won a chemistry scholarship to a private college that was run by the Dutch Christian Reformed Church. Lots of religion taught there. Sometimes I tutor college students flunking their world religion classes for fun. The common text used is "Invitation to World Religions", Oxford University Press. You might try reading it sometime if Lucifer sitting on your shoulder whispering in your ears while you consider the nature of the gods of others doesn't scare you away. Very peripheral indeed, paz.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 13:05 | 6202372 Kurpak
Kurpak's picture
“This is rather as if you imagine a puddle waking up one morning and thinking, 'This is an interesting world I find myself in — an interesting hole I find myself in — fits me rather neatly, doesn't it? In fact it fits me staggeringly well, must have been made to have me in it!' This is such a powerful idea that as the sun rises in the sky and the air heats up and as, gradually, the puddle gets smaller and smaller, frantically hanging on to the notion that everything's going to be alright, because this world was meant to have him in it, was built to have him in it; so the moment he disappears catches him rather by surprise. I think this may be something we need to be on the watch out for.”
Tue, 06/16/2015 - 19:46 | 6203809 Seeing Red
Seeing Red's picture

{Replying to up-thread}

Paz, Evolution does not "rely on chance" on a macro level, although chance events can be relevant (like meteors).  And you clearly know nothing about DNA except that it's "complex".  Please go hang out at Christian Mingle.

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 22:51 | 6204333 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Pazmaker, you are making a very common and very fundamental error in inference. Skyscrapers and paintings and watches and cars and rocket ships are inorganic SO CANNOT SELF ASSEMBLE. They not only require a designer but a manufacturer. Goodness me, this is so simple a primary school child could understand it.

ORGANIC MATTER CAN SELF ASSEMBLE, you see it every day when a chicken hatches or a womens belly grows with a baby, or a fish spawns. This is fact. Organic matter does these things trillions of times a day on this earth, TRILLIONS. Do you propose that god is overseeing and directing every one of the multi-trillions of chemical reactions going on as organic matter self assembles. ARE YOU PROPOSING THIS? If not and you must be happy that the laws of physics and chemistry and biology are sufficient.

Humans cannot help but map their intrinsically local experience of cause and effect to the entire uinverse. This is a stupidity we are all guilty of. Theists sort of take this to the next level though and make extremely flawed comparisons between inorganic matter and organic matter.

Wish you well buddy.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 18:53 | 6203640 Alvin Fernald
Alvin Fernald's picture

"That is why there is a distinction between true religion and false religion."
True religion is when you kill someone, false religion is when they kill you.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:32 | 6200736 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

Exactly.

There are so many examples of faith in our daily lives that they are beyond counting.

In the end, what matters most is what, or whom, you put your faith in.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:38 | 6200749 Counterpunch
Counterpunch's picture

assuming something is true based on some evidence isnt the same as claiming to know that something is true based on none.

 

More succinctly, you conflate faith with knowledge - i.e. you believe something is true because you have faith that it is.  This is, in fact, insane.

 

As a more practical/mundane matter [philosophy is over the heads of some who neve read much] you are left to explain why your faith is "true" but that of a Muslim or a Sikh is not.

 

Because you have faith you're right and they're wrong???  If you can not see the epistemological solipsism, the sheer stupid arrogance of your claim, then why even pretend you are capable of rational mediation of your concepts?

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:49 | 6200771 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

No, it's not over my head to explain why a Muslim or Sikh is wrong, but a follower of Christ is right.

And I do not conflate faith with knowledge.

"Knowledge" can be wrong.

"Faith" can be placed in the wrong thing- or person.

Understand?

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 02:22 | 6200890 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

If that's the case you won the lottery seek by being born in a western country. Those poor dumb red and brown people were just unlucky I guess to be born in the wrong country. Maybe god is white.

What happens, by the way, to all the poeple who lived prior to christ, do they get a free pass? Lucky buggers. All those rapists, murderers, robbers, dictators, war lords living it up in heaven because they were born prior to the exam starting.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 02:24 | 6200894 Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

.

 

"MORAL STATISTICIAN."--I don't want any of your statistics; I took your whole batch and lit my pipe with it. I hate your kind of people. You are always ciphering out how much a man's health is injured, and how much his intellect is impaired, and how many pitiful dollars and cents he wastes in the course of ninety-two years' indulgence in the fatal practice of smoking; and in the equally fatal practice of drinking coffee; and in playing billiards occasionally; and in taking a glass of wine at dinner, etc., etc., etc. And you are always figuring out how many women have been burned to death because of the dangerous fashion of wearing expansive hoops, etc., etc., etc. You never see more than one side of the question. You are blind to the fact that most old men in America smoke and drink coffee, although, according to your theory, they ought to have died young; and that hearty old Englishmen drink wine and survive it, and portly old Dutchmen both drink and smoke freely, and yet grow older and fatter all the time. And you never by to find out how much solid comfort, relaxation, and enjoyment a man derives from smoking in the course of a lifetime (which is worth ten times the money he would save by letting it alone), nor the appalling aggregate of happiness lost in a lifetime your kind of people from not smoking. Of course you can save money by denying yourself all the little vicious enjoyments for fifty years; but then what can you do with it? What use can you put it to? Money can't save your infinitesimal soul. All the use that money can be put to is to purchase comfort and enjoyment in this life; therefore, as you are an enemy to comfort and enjoyment, where is the use of accumulating cash? It won't do for you say that you can use it to better purpose in furnishing a good table, and in charities, and in supporting tract societies, because you know yourself that you people who have no petty vices are never known to give away a cent, and that you stint yourselves so in the matter of food that you are always feeble and hungry. And you never dare to laugh in the daytime for fear some poor wretch, seeing you in a good humor, will try to borrow a dollar of you; and in church you are always down on your knees, with your eyes buried in the cushion, when the contribution-box comes around; and you never give the revenue officer: full statement of your income. Now you know these things yourself, don't you? Very well, then what is the use of your stringing out your miserable lives to a lean and withered old age? What is the use of your saving money that is so utterly worthless to you? In a word, why don't you go off somewhere and die, and not be always trying to seduce people into becoming as "ornery" and unlovable as you are yourselves, by your villainous "moral statistics"? Now I don't approve of dissipation, and I don't indulge in it, either; but I haven't a particle of confidence in a man who has no redeeming petty vices, and so I don't want to hear from you any more. I think you are the very same man who read me a long lecture last week about the degrading vice of smoking cigars, and then came back, in my absence, with your reprehensible fireproof gloves on, and carried off my beautiful parlor stove.

 

 - Mark Twain

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:39 | 6200752 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Saying that you need faith that the sun will rise tomorrow is silly. Can we quit this type of infantile thinking, please.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:52 | 6200778 Counterpunch
Counterpunch's picture

I'd just love to hear the explication of how they "know" that, e.g. the Bible was written/inspired {whatever}  by "God" but the Koran {for e.g.}  was not.

 

The insanity of their position becomes fully highlighted for those who aren't necessarily familiar with the language of epistemology, ontology and the like.

 

If you're like me, I have no problem with people having a spiritual need. I have a problem with people confusing knowledge with pure belief, or rather, claiming to know something is true by dint of believing that it is true.  *That* is the chewy nougat center, I think, of the psychosis.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:06 | 6200798 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

There is no explanation Counter, they are simply parrotting the words passed onto them from their parents, teachers, friends in an endless cycle of self reinforcement. This is tribal behaviour, nothing more.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:13 | 6200806 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

BOTA,

You know that isn't true.

Why lie?

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 02:32 | 6200899 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Many, many, many civilisations have emerged with not the scantest of knowledge of jesus christ. Most everything you say seek is parrotting what you have been told or what you have read. How can this possibly be a lie? Just like muslims parrot everything they have been told or everything they have read in the koran. For crying out loud this is the modus operandi of religion. Have you seen jews and muslims rocking backwards and forwards reciting their books. Christians are no better with preachers recanting the same stuff over and over and over and over and over and over again. This is classic indoctrination more akin to a North Korean re-education camp.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:52 | 6200779 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

And when it doesn't rise?

You will be exposed for your infantile thinking.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:03 | 6200794 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Seek, if the sun doesn't rise it means the earth has stopped its rotation which means we will be flung off the face at several hundred kilometers an hour depending where on the surface you are.

Again, you are invoking magic to propose the earth will stop spinning. 

A picture is starting to emerge is it not about your thought processes?

The human race generally has emerged from the dark ages of magic and superstition.

It's time you did too.

Oh, and if I find myself suddenly flying through the air at 1000mph I will will gladly admit in those fractions of a second I am still alive, that you were right.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:11 | 6200802 Charming Anarchist
Charming Anarchist's picture

Stop right there. You just proved my point. 

<<Seek, if the sun doesn't rise it means the earth has stopped its rotation which means...>>

... that YOU are a man who believes something that is false and you do so, not only without proof, but as a result of deliberate deceit ---- probably the biggest of all modern scientific lies. 

Take a close look at the United Nations flag again. They got your brains.  Now they are after your bodies and souls. 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 02:37 | 6200906 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

CA - please don't tell me you believe the earth is the centre of the universe and the sun and stars revolve around us - please tell me this is not what you are inferring above. If it is I won't be replying to any more of your posts as I be able to have a more intelligent conversation with my 6 year old niece.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 10:08 | 6201501 Mayer Amschel R...
Mayer Amschel Rothschild's picture

Astronomers admit heliocentrism is only a THEORY.  Mathematically, both heliocentric & geocentric THEORIES are equally plausible according to the following scholastic publication http://arxiv.org/pdf/1304.7290.pdf by Luka Popov, U of Zagreb.  There are missing physical phenomenon that should be experienced on a rotating sphere like that of earth that are significant, and we are required to ignore these on faith.

 

No attempt to state a belief on this topic, only to provoke thought on the topic.

 

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 07:24 | 6201063 deimos178
deimos178's picture

There is a God shaped vacuum in the heart of every man which cannot be filled by any created thing, but only by God, the Creator, made known through Jesus.

Blaise Pascal

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:32 | 6200739 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Seek,

"There is a need for God in each of us- it is part of our genome- because we are created by God"

Statements like this will only pass muster amongst thesists and non scientific thinkers. There is nothing in that statement that can be verified. A genome is a series of base pairs of amino-acids, the statement doesn't even make sense. A "need" can only arise in the higher functions of the brain, well above the level of a genome and well into the space that can be influenced by society. You see, if you said that statement to a theist they'd say "wow, yeh, human genome, god" but a scientific thinker will break it down, examine it then either accept or reject it.

Indeed, I have no need for god and I guarantee you this will be the same for many other atheists. I do not have a need for an eternal life because the concept is utterly absurd. So absolutely utterly absurd that I still find it difficult to believe its even on the table for debate. I just can't believe it. ETERNITY, conscious, are you kidding me ????? You'll be able to play every single permuation of chess in that time an infinite number of times. Are you serious ?????

I don't understand why you believe the bible with every atom in your being. It's just so silly, just so dumb that it's embarrassing (the bibel, not you I'm talking about). If the bible actually gave the gernome for human beings or the order of the planets in the solar system or the periodic table or ANYTHING that could not have possibly been known at the time then I'd concede it'd have to be real. But everything you will point out as being absolute proof of the authenticity of the bible is just the fog of your overarching indoctrination.

Not that this is a negative reflection on you because we are all the product of our upbringing. Just how powerful the indoctrination is though I find fascinating. You see, I don't care whether there is a god ot not, I really don't. If cold hard evidence points to a god, then I'm all for believing it, in fact I wouldn't have any choice. But the bible is not evidence. The bible is only evidence in your mind because your mind is, figuratively, "not your mind", it's the mind of your peers, the mind of your teachers, the mind of your parents. The very neural network of your mind has been molded by all these people to the point that the mere presence of the bible IS EVIDENCE OF GOD because that is the way your mind has been constructed/molded.

The bible is just a book.

It's just a book written by people.

It has some good bits.

It has some evil bits.

It has some really, really dumb bits.

People have been saying jesus will return, for how long now?

Return from where Seek? Exactly how do you see this happening? Will jesus slowly materialise in Jeruselum so he starts out ghost like and then slowly becomes more solid? Will he float down from outer space in a robe and sandals that he would have worn 2000 years ago? Does he appear instantly out of nothing like our money supply?

I'm not taking the piss with these questions. If you think jesus will return then you must have some idea how it will happen and as usual your explanations will require magic. But Seek, we have dispensed with magic a long time ago and I'm asking you to dip a toe into the ocean of reality even if you don't like it o=r are scared to do so.

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:17 | 6200811 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

BOTA,

It's very late here.

Perhaps I will answer you tomorrow.

You (unlike Counterpunch, thus far in my experience at ZH) actually reply to comments.

I bid you good night!

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:31 | 6200837 Counterpunch
Counterpunch's picture

I was just going to reply to say I think we should admit we are at an impasse and agree to disagree on this topic.  I don't necessarily want to be as, well, dickish, as I've sometimes been with you  [and with theists in general, don't take it too personally].  We may agree on other matters.  But I don't think we're even having the same discussion about the same things here.

I think you're wrong about faith, etc. and you think I'm wrong.  We can leave it at that .  I'm not sure, the other thing is, that long back and forths on this site in particular is what people want to read.  That is, some philosophical meandering is welcome, to be sure, but ultimately, people probably don't generally want to have to sift through pages and pages of off topic metphysical stuff.

I need to avoid posting when angry, too.  Or drunk.  Or drunk and angry.  Or in the grip of an insomnia phase. 


True insomnia, of 30 minutes of sleep in 3 days...  let me get through undergrad early, but it is not something I'd wish even unto Tarabel.

 

If I might recommend a book - its neutral, ie not an anti religious screed, its called "On Being Certain" 

On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You ...


I come at this from a different angle than most, maybe. I'm also, fwiw, an agnostic, not, strictly speaking, a theist or antitheist.  Penn Gillette has a lot of smart things to say about agnosticism and atheism if you're ever rolling around youtube.  I mention him because I agree with him about 98% of the time.  I agreed with Chris Hitchens a paltry 95% of the time.

 

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:34 | 6200741 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Dupe

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:50 | 6200775 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

Yeah BOTA,

You are a dupe!

Well stated. ;-)

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:22 | 6200813 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Rather than resort to insult why not just answer the question?

How do you envisage jesus returning? Exactly how do you see it panning out? Will it be like magic?

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:26 | 6200819 Charming Anarchist
Charming Anarchist's picture

Sure. Magic. 

Next question? 

As far as I am concerned, walking on water, water into wine and fishes from bread are all magic enough for me.  It aint much more of a leap of faith to believe the 2nd coming will be magicky too. 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:52 | 6200864 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Hahahaha, well that's honest. Whatever you do CA, don't walk under a ladder or ensure to throw some salt over your shoulder if a black cat crosses your path. God help any woman in your vicinity who claims to be a witch. Honsetly, you can make humans believe anything. It's sort of funny. Could the bible have anything in it that would make you say "Nah, that's stupid" or do you just swallow the entire story with zero skepticism. It's the later isn't it? You'll believ absolutely anything nyou've been told to believe.

This is why the human race is doomed, precisely, right here.

People believe what TPTB tell them and then defend the stories fed to them like a private army. You couldn't make this shit up if you tried. 

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:49 | 6200861 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Seek is actually pretty cool.

 

It was a bad joke. Forgive it and continue.

 

AS for me I envisage the return of Christ somewhat like an invasion from the heavens.

 

The Book of Revelation is an allegorical vision of a man, John of Patmos, who may have took some heavy LSD (ate the little scroll) and saw future events with objects and weapons of which he had no recognition, as they did not exist, ON THIS PLANET, 2000 years ago.

 

He will return in a physical form along with legions of angels, warriors, and will technologically overwhelm the defenses of this World.

 

Did you ever read this?

 

http://www.amazon.com/From-Glory-Unto-Thomas-Lorenn/dp/0971797803

 

You ought to...

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:57 | 6200867 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

But how does it physically play out TT? Does this army appear in outer space on horses or arrive in space ships or materialise in combat posture and start running? This is a serious line of questioning because many people make the wildest of claims and only when they are forced to explain what happens might they realise how darned silly it all is.

The bottom line is you are invokimg at the very heart, a suspension of the laws of physics, is that correct? 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 02:23 | 6200891 JustUsChickensHere
JustUsChickensHere's picture

Belief in deity(s) had a survival value in the rough and tumble of life prior to the industrial age.

It helped group 'leaders' to motivate members of the group to do thing of survival value to the group that were suicidal.

IE. In darwinian terms, the trait for belief in unproven things was probably selected for.

After the advent of the industrial age, that trait is at the heart of a lot of global issues.

 

R.I.P. homosapiens.

 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 08:58 | 6201264 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

"... because we are created by God."

nice assertion... prove it

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:01 | 6200768 MonetaryApostate
MonetaryApostate's picture

Tall Tom  Just so you know, the end is explained in Daniel Chapter 11...  https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Daniel+11&version=KJV

 

Obviously the end is near, the Apocalyptic Depression that John wrote about is also on the horizon...

(Everything is moving so fast now...)

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 02:44 | 6200826 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

TT, seek has gone to bed so I'll ask you.

If you believe jesus is returning how will it happen? Explain it to me as if you recorded it on video. What would you see if you could have the video recording at the exact location jesus makes his re-appearance.

Also, why wasn't WWI a definite harbinger of the end times?

Why wasn't WWII a definite harbinger of the end times?

Why does each passing human catastrophe get painted as the end times and then the end times don't happen?

There would have been many millions of christisans at the time of WW1 and WWII making the same claim you are making now. Why weren't these christians right but christians are right now?

Alien civilisations might look on at us with utter bemusement. A species obsessed with the destruction of itself and the people most obsessed are the ones with supposedly the most hope (I mean have you ever seen the face of a born again christian, the hope is decidely creepy). 

We are so fucked up it is hilarious. 

The coming finacial collapse is going to wreak untold havoc on human civilisation but we are a pervasive force, a truly resilient animal. Not withstanding a massive nuclear catastrophe we will pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off and start the whole sick cycle again.

If WWIII breaks out though and doemstic nuclear power is targetted we will probably be looking at the end of human life on the planet, just like the futuristic movies have protrayed. What a spin out that would be to suddently find oneself in that scenario and survive for awhile. what a horrible melancholy feeling that would be.

In such circumstances the earth will shake us off like fleas and in a few million years will rebuild the ecocsystem, life and maybe even another form of civilisation with another species at the helm and with not a shred of knowldege or need for JC.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 03:16 | 6200933 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Clueless: without a clue

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 06:28 | 6201020 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Yes "Mr I believe in the great grey bearded invisible skyman". Are you sure it's me who doesn't have a clue.

Do share your thouhjts on how all this magic is going to occur? How all these laws of physics will be suspended for the first time in recorded history.

Bold, bold claims made by Seek and TT, very bold claims. I'd give the odds of about infinity to one of all this crazy stuff taking place, jesus riding down to earth on light beams, armies assembling themselves from sand, leaves turning into angels, rain drops turning into blood, the land masses rising up out of the ocean to be suspended on the backs of serpeants. I can make shit up too, sounds stupid when I do it doesn/t it.

Well now you know how I feel.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 10:33 | 6201595 HughBriss
HughBriss's picture

To be fair, 9/11 was the first time in recorded history the laws of physics were suspended.

 

Just sayin'.  ;)

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 19:30 | 6203762 Seeing Red
Seeing Red's picture

BOTA, I appreciate the effort you put into your posts, but it's hopeless to debate the self-determined religiously superior.  While I'm all for freedom of religion, I'm somehow against the group dynamics that have produced so many wars throughout history.  Most religions teach that THIS religion is the TRUE one, and this leads to intolerance and eventually other things.  The irony of a Bible-thumper's proclaimed absolute morality would be funny if it weren't so tragic on a macro scale.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 23:03 | 6204355 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Thanks SR, I certainly do realise that it's futile but I do admit I'm a bit obsessed by the obsession other people have with fantasy. It's a fascinating phenonemon of the human mind.

As I replied to one post above, it woud not matter what was in the bible, people could be made to believe it. I find this utterly fascinating. What the hell is reality then?

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:44 | 6200493 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

.

what does Hillsenrat say?........

FHRITP

"Fed hikes rate in the pussy!"

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:52 | 6200523 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

Or fuck main street right in the pussy.

 

RIPS

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:57 | 6200785 MonetaryApostate
MonetaryApostate's picture

Um, Main Street has been dead, and it's dragging the entire economy down with it too...

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:26 | 6200827 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

Right in the pussy....and ass pussy.

 

RIPS

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:14 | 6200412 LongMarch
LongMarch's picture

So many things going on in September. Should I be taking a holiday then?

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:34 | 6200465 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

Yes. A BANK holiday.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:02 | 6200552 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Best use up the vaca before then.  If it is all going to collapse you'll never get it back anyway.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:29 | 6200602 LongMarch
LongMarch's picture

Yes it is funny how things seem to be coming to a head this September. However,there is so much sound and fury flying around about this that I am quite sceptical. So to me it's  one of several possibilities.

1/ It's a disinformation campaign, so when nothing happens alt-media gets discredited.

2/ It's misdirection. We wake up in October and find that was our other rug that got pulled from under our feet.

3/ It's true.It's gonna happen and the wisest thing to do now is to fight over the best seats on this Titanic.

4/ Or perhaps the Matrix just likes to fuck around.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 02:24 | 6200893 JustUsChickensHere
JustUsChickensHere's picture

September 13 ?

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 10:02 | 6201465 cheech_wizard
cheech_wizard's picture

The 14th. Markets aren't open on a Sunday...besides, what better birthday present could I ask for?

<cue diabolical laughter>

<cue apocalypse>

<cue nattering nabobs of negativism>

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:14 | 6200413 Newsboy
Newsboy's picture

Animal Spirits; Do animal spirits believe in ghosts?

I just can't tell what to think about all this.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:56 | 6200535 Elliott Eldrich
Elliott Eldrich's picture

It seems to me like every single time there are major indicators that show that the markets are really set to tank in a big way, it turns out instead that they rally hard. It's really surreal at this point, like watching someone take a pile of gunpowder, bone-dry kindling and dessicated firewood soaked in gasoline and napalm, tossing a match onto the pile, and seeing it freeze solid. Crazy times.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:04 | 6200556 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

You still attach the markets to the economy as an indicator.  That link was broken a while back.  Markets today are like a flag attached to a mast that is missing its yardarm.  You can see the mast is in place and the flag is in a full blow but the ship, she ain't a movin' cap't.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:33 | 6200608 HungryPorkChop
HungryPorkChop's picture

It only freezes as long as the FED can still push the CTRL ALT PRINT button.  When that button also freezes up then SHTF. 

Enjoy as 10 years from now you'll look back and call these the good ole' days.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 02:18 | 6200881 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Go on Janet, I dare you, I double-dog dare you.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:11 | 6200402 Dragon HAwk
Dragon HAwk's picture

As somebody said, stocks will not signal the crash, something else will crash and the stocks will follow it down.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:55 | 6200532 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Like oil prices and the derivatives thereof?

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:12 | 6200403 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Shit the Fuck Yeah!

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:12 | 6200404 kill switch
kill switch's picture

We all had this in mind....Unless I was sleeping for the last 20 years....Think not..

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:13 | 6200406 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Oh piffle.  We've already had the reserve adjustment.  The increase is going to be miniscule.  And we now run deficits and print money like nobody back in 1937.  Plus the "safety nets" are there, if already overburdened.

I'm very disappointed that Janet did not increase in June, but the month is wasting so I guess she doesn't mean to.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:55 | 6200507 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

If Yields are at 2% and she decides to increase by 25 basis points, which I admit is miniscule, and yields increase to 2.25% then that amounts to a WHOPPING 12.5% return for new Bonds over that of existing Bonds.

 

(Bonds are FIXED RATE after all.)

 

People will dump the 2% Bonds, en masse, to buy the 2.25% Bond as there return will increase by 12.5%. That will CRASH THE GOD DAMNED BOND MARKET.

 

Miniscule rate increases will have a dramatic affect because Rates are so damned low in the first place.

 

Let me give you a real world example.

 

Let's say I have $1,000,000 in Bonds at 2%

 

That maeans that every year I net $20,000 on my investment.

 

However let's say I have that same $1,000,000 in Bonds at 2.25%

 

That means that I net $22,500

 

The difference is $2500 per year and is quite substanstial.

 

What percentage return do I gain

 

[($22,500 - $20,000)/$20,000] X 100 = 12.5%

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:28 | 6200726 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

That's all swell Tom, but even with the benchmark standing still the rates on ten years have varied from 1.9 to 2.4 in just the last few weeks.  Maybe much of that is in anticipation of the Fed change.  So, it's done already and the Republic hasn't crashed.

As long as the increase per year is less than the real rate of economic increase per year, I think nothing crashes.  That means it will take almost ten years to return to "normal" rates, but hey, it took us at least seven years to get in this hole, so it seems natural to take at least as long to climb out.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:58 | 6200787 appocean
appocean's picture

The key is the duration and discounts on all the new derivatives that they keep selling.  The sad thing is that in 2008-2011 when all this started if they had reduced the excesses then 75% of the contracts would have expired by now and there would be a lot less risk to liquidity.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:23 | 6200817 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Well it is not all well and good as investors will chase YIELD.

 

The Bonds paying lower rates will be liquidated at a discount.

 

Of course there will be volatility before the event. As anticipation increases so does volatily. When volatility increases then what follows is instability....which is not conducive to any real growth...as if that matters much at this juncture anyway.

 

The bets that Douchebunk took on the Oil Derivatives and the subsequent meltdown of that Market, which will implode Douchebunk, will be more than enough to implode the entire system anyway so this discussion about US Interest Rates has become rather moot...a distraction of sorts.

 

Looking forward to our mutual demise in September.

 

It will be a Theater Event that you will not miss and every night in this unfolding drama is Audience Participation Night.

 

How swell is that? Enjoy...

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:13 | 6200407 3Wishes
3Wishes's picture

At least we will all know who to hang.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:16 | 6200414 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

those cunts ain't gonna raise rates

ain't nobody selling jack shit nor should they

this whole raise rates thing is just a con job to fleece people

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:47 | 6200505 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

but if your TBTF's are positioned correctly, a rate raise collapse can be an accelerated redistribution of capital upwards...

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:07 | 6200560 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

That wouldn't have anything to do with trillion$ in reserves would it?

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:57 | 6200540 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

No one's asked this question - would raising rates increase the fleece? Maybe the increased suffering is exactly what they want. It's not 'money', they can print themselves all they want.

It's not like they don't control their own 'immediate' destiny, and they sure don't care what happens to the rest of us.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:14 | 6200575 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Rising rates will increase insolvencies, bankruptcies, foreclosures and liquidation sales.

 

They acquire the fruits of are labors, what we have labored for, real assets, for pennies on the Dollar, those Dollars created by themselves through creating credit,

 

It is a planned systemic theft and has been happening for centuries.

 

They are not after worthless, empty and void currency. They are after the hard assets...the real wealth. They will steal it any chance that they are given. And y'all give them the chance like obedient sheep being lead to your fleecing before your slaughter.

 

We are sheep.

 

.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:15 | 6200418 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Raising rates is like quitting any addiction. It's never the right time.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:28 | 6200450 Wild Theories
Wild Theories's picture

but it's good pr to say you are going to do it or put on the appearance of trying to do it once... just like women who go on yoyo diets for a week and men who take up one weekend exercise before hitting the couch again.

then they can say "well I tried..."

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:23 | 6200442 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

Yeah, well. Only one thing convinced the banksters to start putting purchasing power back into the hands of people willing to work for it---namely, their experiment in "national" socialism backfiring and the City of London finding itself being bombed nightly by the Luftwaffe. A credible threat of being blown to bits gets even their attention---and when Putin finally gets on with re-uniting Russia, rest assured DC will lend the Germans all the money they need to re-arm with the latest weaponry made in the US of A.

It's not 1937 you should worry about. It's 1940. 

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:41 | 6200490 Motasaurus
Motasaurus's picture

National Socialism did exactly what it was supposed to do - move the manufacturing and financial power of Europe West to the United States, where it could be refined and tested in the greates social experiment of the world, as TPTB pitted a National Socialist US Empire against a Soviet Socialist Russian Empire to see which could control their citizens better. 

It was the great test of A Brave New World vs Animal Farm, to see which would best bring about 1984.  

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:05 | 6200557 Not Too Important
Not Too Important's picture

Or was it simply the 'Trotskyite' bankers wanting to punish Stalin? Stalin pulled a fast one once Lenin was dead.

Trotsky wanted the world to burn all at once. Stalin wanted the Soviet Union to burn completely first, then other nations in order.

And now, because of the same Trotskyite bankers and the US, the world is about to burn all at once.

Add in some occult shit and stir...

People forget WWII - the real meat of it - was a fight between Northern European Black Paganism and Kabbalistic Black Magic. The Trotskyite bankers financed the beginning of it, and it got out of hand from there. Black magic will do that.

Think of Fukushima - and all the rest of the nuclear plansts and spent fuel pools that are getting ready to blow up from improper extended use and corrutped design/construction - as God cleansing the Earth of everything, and 'maybe' starting fresh in a billion years.

We and our children's children will never know.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 03:37 | 6200947 smacker
smacker's picture

Exactly so. Those who research the two models soon realise there isn't much difference between them. It comes down to arguing (or warring) over which nail on the coffin to bang in next.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:48 | 6200769 Counterpunch
Counterpunch's picture

You know - the British bombed civilian sites and cities in Germany first.  Nazis being evil racist statist fucks doesn't mean that the people who put together the British Empire, on which the sun never set, and the blood never dried, were innocent victims or the good guys.

 

They just won.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 01:30 | 6200834 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

His Story is always written by the victor to glorify his actions and silence opposition.

 

Danzig was more than just a singer.

 

RIPS

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 08:16 | 6201146 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

I know that.

I'm going further. The British, or rather the City, created Hitler and appointed him to oversee what they hoped would be a more successful form of economic planning easier to profit from than Stalinist central planning.

And they only won after their Frankenstein's monster made the mistake of turning on Stalin. 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 09:16 | 6201311 post turtle saver
post turtle saver's picture

lies... the Germans bombed civilian areas as an integral part of the their WW2 strategy from the very beginning... in fact, they were first to bomb a city to greater than 75% destroyed (Wielun)... followed quickly by the Soviet Union I would add (attempted strategic bombing of Helsinki)...

it was only after the Rotterdam Blitz and the conclusion of the Battle of France that civilian strategic bombing on Britain's part really got underway... and that because of the bombing of London first on Germany's part...

I've been watching you Counterpunch... you're a liar and revisionist, a fucking coward and snake in the grass... don't think we won't notice or call you out on it when you post obvious steaming bullshit like this...

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:24 | 6200443 fremannx
fremannx's picture

Dow Theory is pointing to an impending collapse in the stock market as explained here...

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/dow-jones-industrial-averageelliott-w...

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:26 | 6200449 tempo
tempo's picture

I want more free stuff, elect Hillary an example of the new American ethics and morals that we all admire. Equities will reach much higher levels until she is elected.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:30 | 6200462 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Somehow, this analysis forgot to mention that there was a tax increase in 1937, too.

It seems that Fascist Dictator Rogue wanted to staunch the unprecedented flows of red ink. Being a scumbag who was happy to spend other people's money, he didn't consider spending less money. He passed a big tax hike.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:51 | 6200520 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

The tax hike analog is Obamacare and all the myriad of state and local tax increases that result from both tax base collapse (dying of the middle class) and the never-ending press of federal mandates on the states.  If you are only looking at the federal marginal income tax rates, you are right- they haven't budged in years.  Look elsewhere and they're growing like weeds from every crack in the sidewalk.

 

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:37 | 6200482 Ajax_USB_Port_R...
Ajax_USB_Port_Repair_Service_'s picture

Tyler neglected to mention the ever-present danger of shark attacks!

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:45 | 6200496 matinee55
matinee55's picture

my goodness, there has to be about 1000 paper flips to be done yet & when that fails they invent fed2 which will buy debt of fed1 ----fed3, fed 4 debt more debt flip me some more

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:48 | 6200509 matinee55
matinee55's picture

boys / girls, start bring some moolaa home & put in safe place - you've been warned

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 22:49 | 6200514 biggestbrother
biggestbrother's picture

It is risky to stop ZIRP. 

The only question is it better to stop it sooner or later. 

I would think the longer you leave it the more risky. 

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:09 | 6200686 yogibear
yogibear's picture

0% until outside forces overide the Federal Reserve (As Fisher and Greenspan stated)

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:00 | 6200544 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Who gives a shit if they raise, they'll just print enough money to pay off the interest and keep manipulating the bond market, along with everything else. Hahahaha. 

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:26 | 6200597 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

And as The Wheel of Misfortune is spinning, I am placing all of my chips on...no interest rake hike.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:37 | 6200615 Youri Carma
Youri Carma's picture

The date 23 September 2015 keeps coming up. Wonder why?

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:54 | 6200655 Chipped ham
Chipped ham's picture

13th isn't it?

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:55 | 6200658 LongMarch
LongMarch's picture

Because it is lucky.Thats why.Nothing to see here. Keep calm and carry on serfing.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:06 | 6200681 Seek_Truth
Seek_Truth's picture

Because a charlatan by the name of Jonathan Cahn wrote a book that many believe.

They believe it because they don't know the Holy Scriptures.

"But about that day or hour no one knows, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father." - Matthew 24:36

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:11 | 6200692 LongMarch
LongMarch's picture

Well come Sept 24th, they'll have egg on their faces. Oughta go long on humble pie.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 00:32 | 6200738 duck dodgers
duck dodgers's picture

That passage refers to the coming of christ... not a market crash.

Tue, 06/16/2015 - 06:20 | 6201015 nosam
nosam's picture

Market crashes and 9/11 events are well within the control of the evil folk.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!