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Homebuilder Optimism Soars To 10 Year Highs Amid Rising Rates, Slumping Consumer Sentiment

Tyler Durden's picture




 

We assume Hovnanian's CEO was not asked as part of this survey. NAHB's Sentiment index jumped the most in 2 years to its highest since November 2005. Everything in every cohort rose exuberantly on the heels of a pick up in sales. We have little color to add to this aside to note rates have been rising and just exactly what use is a self-referential confidence survey for an industry (more than any other) that is wholly reliant on confidence for its future revenue growth?

Great another bubble in homebuilder optimism...

 

Seems like Hombuilders are a lot more confident that the buying climate of their customers...

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:11 | 6197659 JustObserving
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If you build it, they will come.  

At least in the fraudulent economic statistics in the land of the free.

Reality is so overrated

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:18 | 6197683 PartysOver
PartysOver's picture

I reject your reality and substitute my own.  So there.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:30 | 6197712 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. ...  Karl Rove

Putin is an insane "mass-murderer"

Gold is a barbarous relic

The Fed is working for your interests

The Nobel Prize Winner is protecting you by droning women and children and wedding parties

Jobless rate in USA is 5.5% and inflation is only 0.8%

How do you like that reality generated by your government and your mass media?

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 11:07 | 6197845 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

They are all salesmen. Why wouldn't they be optimistic? They sure as hell aren't going to sell any houses while exhibiting pessimism.

As long as the world is gambling with other people's money there should never be a day without optimism.....false or ignorant optimism, but still.

Don't worry, be happy!

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 13:14 | 6198347 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

The reality is that there is a massive shortage of housing in some parts of the country. But that doesn't fit the narrative so let's ignore it.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:12 | 6197662 B2u
B2u's picture

Let's see....we are in a housing bubble....so we must buy high and then let the government rescue us when the bubble bursts?

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:17 | 6197665 ThirteenthFloor
ThirteenthFloor's picture

EU is fading fast, military driving around the neighborhood, no one has any savings, wages and jobs suck, no one is spending.....but the future of home building looks great.

Whats wrong with this picture.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:20 | 6197690 BrosephStiglitz
BrosephStiglitz's picture

I'm sure home building has a great future.. after the riots, the wars, the civil unrest and rising property taxes.

You must know.. you need to BREAK the window first before it can be fixed. 

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:24 | 6197700 Mr. Magoo
Mr. Magoo's picture
Remember, reality is an illusion, the universe is a hologram, buy gold, bye!

Bill Cipher (Pyramid shaped character,gravity falls)
Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:18 | 6197682 CHC
CHC's picture

Perhaps fairies are the new immigrants and they'll be the ones buying all these new homes.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:35 | 6197736 General Decline
General Decline's picture

But what about all the empty, foreclosed houses everywhere?  It's nuts.  Sometimes I wonder if everything is normal and I'm just having a stroke.   

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 12:06 | 6198041 Mr. Magoo
Mr. Magoo's picture

I think the elves and the dwarfs will contribute to the next round of home sales, the orcs have already saturated the market

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:19 | 6197688 Monetas
Monetas's picture

Mobomba's Muslim invasion .... at tax payer expense .... is sopping up all available housings .... the unemployed can't outbid .... HUD's generous housing subsidies .... no job no home for you .... but, you can default on your student loan !

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:43 | 6197756 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

just wait til the bankers can exclude the student obligations from being counted in the dti ratio

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:43 | 6197757 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

just wait til the bankers can exclude the student obligations from being counted in the dti ratio

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 11:11 | 6197854 Lin S
Lin S's picture

What is that in your avatar? A coin?

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:20 | 6197689 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Of course the builders are optimistic, they get some of the monetary gin from the FED too.

Now all the FED has to do is send us all our $4 million tax-free bailout checks and it's off to the races!

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:34 | 6197732 First There Is ...
First There Is A Mountain's picture

Bubbles? Let me tell you about bubbles. Here in Denver just unloaded my 1982 multi level, rapidly deteriorating brick and cheap siding home for $440K. Bought it for an overpriced $340K 3 years ago. It was on the market for 16 hours. First offer came in $6K over ask. I countered $4K higher for an even $10K over ask and probably could have asked for more if I truly wanted to be greedy. They took it and I'm out. I actually gave in on a few things for inspection but most people are telling them get fucked on inspection and appraisal. We aren't fixing shit and we don't care where it appraises. 

Homes are being opened here for 10 days and receiving bids during that time. Highest bid wins. Auction system on homes. Most realtors tell you there is a lack of inventory around here to the tune of at least 20K homes and closer to 30K. I have met dozens of people who are 5 bids deep (losing all) and going for strike 6, 7 & 8. Thousands of peopole pouring into Denver on a monthly basis and no one knows why. Some think it's dope. Nope. Marijuana legalization has created pockets of affluence for a few builders, electricians, etc. but is not trickling into the economy as the money is mostly sitting in cash in vaults. 

It's mind boggling to me but the thunderclap is going to be amazing when this suckers goes.....

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 11:08 | 6197849 gimme soma dat
gimme soma dat's picture

Same thing going on here in Ohio. 

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 11:09 | 6197851 Lin S
Lin S's picture

What kind of people are buying?

Arabic-speakers? Urdu? Punjabi? Mandarin?

Curious...

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 11:20 | 6197897 First There Is ...
First There Is A Mountain's picture

White bread......Guy from Phluggerville (outside Austin I believe) bought mine. Most buyers are lily white as far as I can tell. 

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 11:18 | 6197886 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

Maybe an Exodus from California?

A friend of mine in Ensenada in Baja, a city about an hour or so south of San Diego told me she only has city water supplied two or three days a week.  They have to conserve and store water.  This was six months or so ago.

Would you want to live in a place where potable water is a problem?

If the drought continues another few years a mass exodus will probably occur and LA will look like Detroit.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 11:24 | 6197915 First There Is ...
First There Is A Mountain's picture

Some from CA but CO has an incredibly diverse group of people from all states really. Lot of East Coasters finally had enough. Little do they know. Guy from Phoenix was buying some of my shit this weekend. I told him what it was going to cost him to register his car in the great state of CO. Color drained from his face as I revealed that it would cost the same to register it here for one year as it did for 4 in AZ. Welcome to the Boom Town.....He's living in a $2500/month two bedroom townhome because he literally CANNOT find a home to buy. 

MANY people also taking pay cuts to move here. Strange but I guess they think they're going to be making Warren Miller films in their spare time. Great fun right up until they get caught in their first 4-hour I-70 clusterfuck returning from the mountains. And then there's that $3000/month mortgage to service. Get the fuck to work. No time for fun baby. 

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 11:45 | 6197980 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

With all this economic doom speak in the air, there are pockets around the country where money does not seem to be an issue, like Denver for example.

Even that fellow you described paying $2,500 a month rent while he is looking for a home to buy.  He is doing it and is looking to stay I imagine, regardless of the monthly expenditures, so are a lot of others.

It is getting to the point where a person really has no clue whether the economy is bad or good but freeways are a good indicator.  If they are jammed twice a day you know people are working.  When they are empty, there is a big problem.  Same goes for parking lots in malls.

 

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 12:00 | 6198019 First There Is ...
First There Is A Mountain's picture

Denver has bucked the trend almost entirely. Traffic is some of the worst in the nation here now. Was stuck bumper to bumper at 4:00 PM on a Saturday a couple of weeks ago....

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 13:32 | 6198458 markitect
markitect's picture

My anecdoetal evidence;  I know four 20 somethings who moved to Colorado in the last two years from Chicago with no job or housing lined up.  Just up and left.  The reason stated was the pay wasnt high enough to justify living in Chicago so if they were going to be broke they wanted to be near outdoor activities.  That simple.  We had a couple youngsters quit and move to Los Angles to hang out a few years ago too.  Appearantly being employed isnt working out anymore when your 26, deep in debt, spending everything on rent.  We've fucked an entire generation who just wants to zone out in the mountains or by the beach now.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:38 | 6197743 silverer
silverer's picture

I thought most people would be paying to get out of Denver.  Must be those folks from California, all excited that Colorado still has water.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:42 | 6197754 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

I dont think this is inconsistent, this is the last gasp of folks that were waiting to buy.  In another quarter, it will be a ghostland in housing.  Given the big unless that things get so bad that the 30 drops to 2 percent or less, then that may forestall the end a bit, which is all they are really playing for.  Palliative care. 

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:45 | 6197765 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Hey Mr. Homebuilders, hope (optimism) in one hand and shit in the other.  See which one fills up first.

You're fooked!

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 11:11 | 6197855 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

If you don't have hope, what do you have?

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 11:14 | 6197869 Lin S
Lin S's picture

How much RE activity is driven by demand created by the absence of borders and flooding the United States with tens of millions of foreigners?

I'd guess 75-80% of it.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 11:19 | 6197892 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

This report is a load of crap.

We work with home builders and they're all anxious.  And we're in a section of central Massachusetts where things have probably been better than the national average in general economic terms.  No one is proposing big projects like they did from 1995-2005.  Everything is small because they're terrified of getting caught in a bad market.  This report is fiction.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 12:26 | 6198112 TomGa
TomGa's picture

Sure as hell glad not to be the one holding the paper on all that construction!

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 13:31 | 6198456 roddy6667
roddy6667's picture

Sooooo, the feelings of the builders have importance in the objective world? Remember, these are the guys who build into a bubble and way past the peak when everybody can see the bubble popped.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 17:40 | 6199703 hesk
hesk's picture

lol I did i quick zillow peak at my local area (Philly suburb). There is at least 2 house on evey block that are forclosed on or in pre forclosure.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 23:00 | 6200549 biggestbrother
biggestbrother's picture
Homebuilder Optimism Soars To 10 Year Highs Amid Rising Rates, Slumping Consumer Sentiment"! ha ha

Stock market confidence falls on marginally improving economy

 

 

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