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US Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey Plunges To Lowest Since January 2013 As Inventory Optimism Crashes By Most Ever

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Empire Fed Manufacturing has now missed expectations for 8 of the last 9 months. June's -1.98 print (against hopes for a post-weather bounce to 6.00 from 3.09) is the lowest since January 2013. With only 26% of respondents saying conditions had improved, New orders tumbled, Prices Received slid, shipments dropped and inventories fell... but employment and workweek increased? What hope for the future - less! General Business conditions 6-month ahead fell for the 2nd consecutiuve month with th emost crucial aspect being a total and utter collapse in future inventories from 3.13 to -17.31

The headline was the weakest since Jan 2013...-

 

And future optimism is waning...

The index for future general business conditions fell for a second consecutive month. The four-point drop, to 25.8, signaled that optimism about the six-month outlook ebbed further in June. The future new orders index fell eight points to 26.1, and the index for future shipments fell ten points to 22.1. The future inventories index plunged twenty points to -17.3, suggesting a widespread belief that inventory levels would decline in the months ahead. Indexes for future prices paid and received were little changed. The index for future employment declined for a third consecutive month but, at 13.5, it still suggested that manufacturers expected employment levels to rise. The capital expenditures index moved down four points to 11.5, and the technology spending index fell to -1.0.

And most critically...

The future inventories index plunged twenty points to -17.3, suggesting a widespread belief that inventory levels would decline in the months ahead

 

 

This the biggest crash in inventory optimism ever

This does not bode well for Q4 GDP!

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 06/15/2015 - 08:44 | 6197380 B2u
B2u's picture

ooops...

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 08:55 | 6197412 StackShinyStuff
StackShinyStuff's picture

Biggest crash since Lehman that one that took out the dinosaurs

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 09:14 | 6197466 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Plus, 'since Lehman' was the biggest boon to banksters ever, they've never had it so good.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 08:46 | 6197381 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Anyone producing a real product requiring real resources knows that inflation is already here, even if sales are down.

by design, the Fed and central bankers/financiers will be behind the curve again...

The irony being that people and companies with real skills will be bankrupt, the money-printers/changers will not...

The only fix will be to stop accepting their paper and take their fucking heads...

seems humanity never learns...

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 08:51 | 6197403 two hoots
two hoots's picture

Copper, Nickel, Aluminum all low?  If wages are low where is this inflation (not including gasoline/food) coming from? 

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 08:53 | 6197411 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Obamacare..

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 08:57 | 6197425 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Really, real estate, especially high end, equities?  For me energy is still costing me more than ever.  Diesel has certainly "recovered"...

With 7+ billion and growing, all competing for a higher standard of living anything that is required for a high standard of living is most certainly experiencing inflation big time.

Hey genius, for the majority of the people on the planet, gasoline (energy), food, and water are the only thing that matters!

take my advice and get long sharecropping and guillotines, beat the rush.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 09:23 | 6197494 TwoHoot
TwoHoot's picture

Thank you, two hoots. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 08:45 | 6197383 pitchforksanonymous
pitchforksanonymous's picture

Heck yeah!! Time for QE4!!!!!!!!!!!

Do I really need to say it guys??? btfd.

 

 

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 08:55 | 6197416 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Try not to drool on your shoes this time.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 08:45 | 6197384 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Gold just sits there, " Who me? " ridiculous.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 08:55 | 6197419 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

No worries it has plenty suitors.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 08:50 | 6197387 Arnold
Arnold's picture

New Yawk is screwed, has been for 10 years or so.

Capital inflows from city real estate (foreign purchases) are about the only thing floating the Battleship in the Puddle right now.

Next step: 9/11 levels. Juggle them numbers boyz.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 08:59 | 6197428 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

If it broke off and sank into the ocean in a vicious manner and took all the Liberal scum with it no one would care or even notice.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 09:35 | 6197529 Osmium
Osmium's picture

With all the people and buildings on Manhattan, I'm surprised it has not tipped over and capsized.

 

(Hank Johnson)

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 08:47 | 6197389 JMT
JMT's picture

Retail employment is also booming supposedly even though more people are shopping online... How come so many 'associates' are needed suddenly?? Has become a jobs program. I don't think Target hires anyone who is over 25, not a minority or a white person with piercings & tats everywhere or blue hair -- one of the reasons along with the holier than thou attitude that these $10 an hour associates have is why I stopped shopping instore and go online only

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 08:48 | 6197391 two hoots
two hoots's picture

If Industrial Production (9:15 ET) disappoints this could be "the" interesting week?   (Given the other bad cards in our hand.)

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 09:21 | 6197488 TwoHoot
TwoHoot's picture

Thank you, two hoots. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 08:55 | 6197417 Space Animatoltipap
Space Animatoltipap's picture

Just out; it's all a mistake. EFM is +18. Something had gone wrong in the proces of communicating. 

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 08:59 | 6197420 foodstampbarry
foodstampbarry's picture

Steve LIESman: "This just doesn't make any sense, the fundamentals are strong."

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 09:02 | 6197438 Midnight Rider
Midnight Rider's picture

Time for a quadruple seasonal adjustment.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 09:07 | 6197448 kw2012
kw2012's picture

Clearly the problem here is that the business owner's didn't doubly season adjust their expectations for new orders.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 09:19 | 6197481 TwoHoot
TwoHoot's picture

Thank you, two hoots. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 09:32 | 6197519 nakki
nakki's picture

Its just a survey, good or bed its all made up. The real problem is there is not enough fiat in the world to cover the bill. This might sound strange, but the fact is inflation and wage stagnation has hurt the people that would be using it creating jobs with it. Instead it has gone into stocks that will never make money or corporate buybacks enriching a very very small minority of the populous. The tippy top has legalized fraud.

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 09:34 | 6197526 1033eruth
1033eruth's picture

Last sentence of article:  "This does not bode well for Q4 GDP!"

 

 

Too funny - If its a problem for the stats massagers, then they can always sell more weapons to somebody to make up the difference.  As if GDP isn't as massaged as well as unemployment, confidence or other bullshit figures that we place to much emphasis on.  Or should I say, too much algo emphasis? 

Mon, 06/15/2015 - 10:08 | 6197650 fascismlover
fascismlover's picture

Long guillotines

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