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US Industrial Production Weakest Since January 2010, Flashes Recessionary Red Flag
US Industrial production has missed expectations for 4 of the last 5 months (not seen outside recession) and has not seen notable MoM gains for 6 months in a row (not seen outside recession). Against expectations of a 0.3% gain, IP dropped 0.2% in May (not what the meteorconomists were hoping for). Without the over-stocking of motor vehicles, the number would have been a total disaster as Autos rose 1.&% MoM (the only industry to gain) but the 7.9% plunge in drilling/servicing at oil/gas wells is "unequivocally bad." At 1.37% YoY growth, this is the weakest industrial production since January 2010. Minor upward revisions stalled the MoM drop streak but US factory output has now fallen YoY 6 months in a row (not seen outside recession) for the biggest drop in over 4 years.
MoM it's ugly...
But YoY is flashing recessionary red!
“The global economic situation is not ideal,” Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, said before the report.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Can we not seasonally adjust it a few hundred times until we get the numbers the Fed wants?
I believe it is easier to switch red to green and up to down at this point.
Why do we even discuss "missed expectations", much less show any concern? Expectations can be manipulated too easily, and the accuracy of such forecasts has proven to be poor at best. Expectations are similar to earnings per share; manipulate the number of shares via buybacks and the EPS rises. Big deal!
We should, I believe, concentrate on YoY actual numbers and real percentages, etc., ignoring expectations. Then the only problem will be getting true numbers, and considering the truthiness of, say, BLS reports, we all might as well go outside and watch the grass grow (except average Californians, who can watch the grass wither.)
well,we could "seasonally" adjust it with a massive one-time global warming adjustment (at least until next month, when we do another).
This may help keep nyc from being "under water" so to speak, and it makes sense given the severity of the global warming problem....
As Bob likes to say "Everything is awesome!"
we've been on life support for quite a while and the patient has finally headed to the light
The Fed is editing Yellen's speech for the third time this morning.
How's those futures going?
Thank you, two hoots. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
There hasn't been this many zoo animals running rampant "since Lehman":
http://gawker.com/escaped-zoo-animals-stream-through-tbilisi-after-flood...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oKPYe53h78
Perfect time to raise rates.
Duplicate
Im buying bonds...James Bonds...with a .oo7% rate.
The nearest Fed raise won't be until next year.
What a disaster.
and so... this 'Russophobic UsSa' feels the velvet blowback-punch[bowl] of thy EU`fief..., this foreign `'Maiden[?]' of known-unbekownst hinterland, hence laying waste across the sinking` Atlantist`isle of destitution...
thankyou Obi1?
nothing moar buybacks and ceo bonuses can't fix
"I am tired of Stephen Stanley stealing my material" - Captain Obvious
Growth is a barbarous relic.
Amazing how Growth always seems to follow the real barbarous relic.
just as mercury catches our temperature,
gold reflects its fever...[?]
We will contnue to hear "But it would have been worse if we hadn't spent trillions in order to save the economy" -- at least until everyone starts saying "We only made it worse by spending trillions trying to save the economy".
About the only thing the u.s manufactures is FED money. Obviously if that is reduced the Markets will follow.
Now although that is sarcasm.... think about it.
Although sarcasm was your point, sadly you are more right than wrong
/sarc Since the US doesn't actually MAKE very much anymore, why do we consider 'weak' manufacturing as a sign of anything? Isn't that sort of like measuring how many buggy whips we have and coming to some conclusion?
I believe the FED replaced the cost of meat with buggy whip production in their new CPI calculation
Hey, the US makes DEBT better than anybody! Now, sing along with me as we do a few stanzas of "Hail To The Fed".
Everybody is so fixated on the charts that they forgot to go out and be productive.
People are broke bitch.
It is not flashing a recessionary red flag, it IS a recession!
U.S. manufacturing sector said to be in a technical recession
15 June 2015, by Greg Robb - Washington (MarketWatch)
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-manufacturing-sector-said-to-be-technical-recession-2015-06-15