This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Forget "Happy Endings" - One Bank Sees Greek "Disorderly Default" As The Most Likely Outcome
With the S&P 500 2% off record highs, we are sure talking-heads will proclaim "any Greece actions are more than priced in," but as Bank Safra's chief economist Karsten Junius warns, forget happy endings, "Disorderly Default" is now the most likely outcome for Greece.
Of the five scenarios that could play out for Greece, a happy ending is the least likely, Karsten Junius, chief economist at Bank J Safra Sarasin, writes in client note.
1) Disorderly default: 35% likelihood
Greece defaults, but pays maturing bonds and loans solely on basis of cash position; creditors would have incentive to continue talks to prevent a total loss. Capital controls would be necessary to keep Greece in euro
2) Orderly default, within euro: 25%
Greece defaults, with prospect of new talks with creditors, who want part of the debt serviced in return for aid that would allow Hellenic Republic to keep euro. Capital controls would be likely; Greece might have to issue IOUs for some domestic payments
3) Interim solution: 20%
Eurogroup offers a bridging loan, which prevents Greece defaulting on its debts this summer
4) “Sticky-end” or orderly default, with euro-exit: 15%
Greece makes a clear break with creditors, embarks on its own monetary-policy course
5) Happy ending: 5%
Greece agrees on M-T adjustment program, which enables it to return to stronger growth path
* * *
Because while the flows signal anxiety, price is anything but pricing this in...
Charts: Bloomberg
»
- 21724 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
In Europe, travel organisations are advising tourists to take extra cash when vacationing in Greece. http://www.welt.de/reise/article106381574/TUI-raet-Griechenland-Urlauber... and http://www.telegraaf.nl/dft/geld/24161835/___Neem_extra_cash_mee_naar_Gr...
It's a great time to learn about free food!
http://naturecoastpermaculture.com/wild-edible-plants/
For all those proponents of a cashless society: take some extra bitcoins when visiting Greece! LOL!
OT but good read: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/11671617/Perhaps-the-worlds-...
Throw those pathetic Greek deadbeats out of Europe already.
Wolferi, are you filling well? It took 16 minutes from the first post to your post.
Yes! Throw them out, and watch as Douche Bank goes tits up, killed by derivatives when Greece defaults.
We in Germany will not have much problems if/when Deutsche Bank goes to hell. It´s just another investment bank in the City of London. So, let them burn.
I'd be okay with DB burning to the ground tomorrow.
the Wolferl of Wall Street, smells like a kike to me
You don´t speak Bavarian, do you?
Why would anyone still travel to Greece? I'd rather take my chances in Liberia.
Portugal/Italian default in 5...4...3...2...
Now you're talking :-)
Let's see this whole EU/EZ house of papermache held together with political bullshit come crashing down. Bring it on.
As goes Greece, so do Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Italy and France.
Perhaps, the idiots buying bonds at negative or zero interest rates will wake up from their slumber.
If they wake up, it only be because a giant paper cock was jammed up their asses.
Just decide on the worst possible outcome for the most people and that'll be the one they choose.....
I take door # 3 ...... the bridge loan to nowhere.
Useless fucking paper-pushers everywhere should be preparing for some "disorder", I can agree on that much, but then I am optimistic like that.
Greece should hire Goldman to help them out of this mess, just like it helped them get into this mess.
exactly, jews get paid to throw you into the ditch, then reach out a helping hand to rescue you at egregious rates, classic
The4 Greek govt is Goldman
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/billionaire-investor-kirk-kerkorian-die...
That's impossible. Billionaires don't ever die. They bought CDS on everlasting life.
Looks like there was a margin call and he couldn't ante up...
<-- Chinese Haircut (with Happy Ending)
<-- EUro Haircut/Shearing (Unhappy Ending)
Greeks, if you and your banks get a "Chinese haircut", you can indeed get a "Happy Ending". Think about which one you can afford and want. But don't fool yourself, you are getting a haircute
Can-kicking #3 incoming.
Time to stock on bitcoins ? https://bitcoinity.org/markets/kraken/EUR
Going from fiat to literal nothing doesn't seem like progress to me.
Russia and China have little incentive to help make it an "orderly" default. It'll be a Duhfault.
<---yet another false "default" alarm (my bet)
<---this is it!
This shitshow will continue until the mass rioting/civil war is in full swing.
There are no orderly bank runs.
"Finding My Way"
Yeah, oh yeah!
Ooh, said I, I'm comin' out to get you
Ooh, sit down, I'm comin' out to find you
Ooh, yeah
Ooh yeah
Findin' my way!
I've been gone so long
I've lost count of the years
Well, I sang some sad songs
Oh yes, and cried some bad tears
Look out! I'm comin', whoa, whoa
Look out! I'm comin', whoa, yeah
I'm runnin', finding my way back home
Oh yeah!
Yeah, oh, yeah!
Ooh, said I, I'm comin' back to look for you
Ooh, sit down, I'm goin' by the back door
Ooh, yeah
Ooh, yeah
Findin' my way!
That is the outcomes for Greece...but the rest of the world is waiting to see haw the casino plays out with all the bets on the sidelines that noone knows about....will it be trillions of off balance sheet bets by the banks and insurance companies or is that all under control...
How would we go long on disorderly default?
Raytheon?
Do Greek women shave their arm pits and legs? Just asking.
Do you brush your teeth? Just askin asshole...........
@ CHC
They are trying really hard to.
In all my travels I found that the Germans were the dirtiest SOB's I ever met!
Two words: No deodorant.
Sure.
Do old Greek men and old German men both have hair growing in their ears? Just asking...
Sounds like the same MYTH as a "amicable divorce".
Civil war is coming to Greece, the communists on motorcycles with machine guns will guarantee it.
The General Motors bond screwjob is the business model for Greece
So Greece is the testing ground for the one off wealth tax.
Does this mean the statists are actually starting to feel threatened? Is there a real chance that we may see a change to the Status Quo in our life time? Will there be a day when I can finger every asshole bureaucrat and civic "employee" that's been sucking the teet for all their "working" lives? Can we kick them in the groins when they're trying to collect on their 30+ year eternal pension schemes? Is there a God?
This is a message from the Hellenic people around the world: FUCK YOU MALAKA!
The Greeks would be well advised to default on their debt and go to the BRICS bank for a loan---of course they need austerity -pensions are too high, gov workers paid too much, and they need to start taxing the rich fairly -same as in the USA. It would be worth it too them to start with a clean slate -austerity with unpayable loans is no good -auterity with a clean slate and BRICS loans would be what they need.