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Housing Starts Plunge 11% As April "Bounce" Fades, Permits Soar To 8 Year High
Following April's hope-filled spike in Housing Starts and Building Permits SAAR (and the exuberant jerk to 10 year highs in NAHB Sentiment), May data is more mixed. Housing Starts plunged 11.1% MoM (against expectations of a 4% drop) missing for the 3rd of last 4 months. Permits, on the other hand, spiked 11.8% (againmst expectations of a 3.5% drop) smashing the hope to its highest since August 2007. So - in summary - hope is soaring, reality is falling and all the hope is based on America as 'rental nation' with a record number of multi-family unit permits.
Starts longer-term...
As Permits soar...
Take a look at this chart again! notice anything similar? The desperate spike in hope that occurred in early 2008 (that prompted calls for recovery) appears to be echoing awkwardly!!
Charts: Bloomberg
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If they manage to ban cash, and push rates significantly negative, all of our current bubbles will get blown much bigger. They will still pop, but from a much higher level. Explained here.
check the Baltic Dry Index, It is at a record low now.
http://thedailycoin.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Screen-Shot-2015-06-08-at-2.56.50-PM.png
Another is the China Containerized Freight index, which measures the cost of shipping finished industrial goods out of China. It is also at a record low.
http://thedailycoin.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/China-Containerized-Freight-index-2015-06-05.png
Insiders say the most likely candidate to play role of Lehman Brothers in the upcoming crisis is Deutschebank. Deutschebank has had its S&P rating dropped to BBB+, which is lower that the AA- that Lehman had before it collapsed. Furthermore, Deutschebank’s derivatives book has a nominal value of 54.7 trillion Euros, compared to an EU GDP of 9.6 trillion Euros and a German GDP of 2.74 trillion Euros. The basis for a lot of those derivatives is Greek debt and the Greek government de facto defaulted on June 5th.
it is so bad out there
if they are BBB+ then fidelity will buy them
You would think people would have learned.
… whatever gave you THAT impression?
Start to build more homes they cannot sell? Sounds just like 2007. Great Job by the Federal Reserve.
The auto makers need more parking spaces for the channel stuffed unsolds from last season. Somebody's gotta keep blowin' 'dem bubbles, you consumers just aren'ft pulling share of the load these days.
Multi-Family Units = A Small Part of Agenda 21
"Multi-family units" ....exactly. What I am seeing are massive crappily constructed apartment complexes the lenth of 10 city blocks each direction. So many they offer the first 3 months free and "Welcome all section 8 Peeples" the sign says.
These 'quasi-public housing projects' face the same future as the run-down ghetto public projects in other cities I suspect. Luckily I live fairly far away.
I also see a lot of duplexes and condos.
How many can afford a single unit house on property?
No, I don't notice anything similar in the chart. What I do notice is the 2008 spike occuring in a dramatically falling trendline, whereas today's is in a steadily rising trendline. And that in 2008 the pop occurred during an economy shedding construction jobs, and now it's adding construction jobs. I notice in 2008 that only the multi-family spiked, whereas today's both single and multi are up.
Try. Harder.
Everybody, take note it's the rental permits soaring. Go figure.
In other news the National Association of Rainbow Bright warned that there has been a global die off of Shiny Unicorn Dreams accompanied by Saddened People.
It was all explained in 1984.
But not to fear, another 8 years of Mega Socialist Nonsense will Save Us!
Including the One Eyed Snail Dater and Do Do Birds
Geo-engineering and Genetic Manipulation Will Save Us!
Monsanto/Big Pharma 2016
Permits are nothing more than a paper shuffle...meaningless.
In Denver its all apartments...10,000 or more
The only new houses that are selling are in the upper middle class price range and above. The top 19% of the population cannot support a healthy housing market.
Housing does not trickle down. But houses might crush some investors or owners. The moral of the story is to try not to wind up like the Wicked Witch of the East in The Wizard of Oz when the ill winds of too much printing start to hit home.
Housing starts plunge - stocks surge.
SSDD.
Spoos up 10 ticks on this news.
I think this is about as bad as it sounds. There is no hope on the horizon, and whoever the next president is makes no difference, as they are only good at spending other people's money, creating more debt, and taking care of their own finances.
So, what’s the problem exactly? The wealthy are doing great. Car sales are soaring with eight-year no-qual loans and I see owners of car dealerships building new mansions. The little people are adding to their debt loads, and Janet is happy to enable them. She knows the “big secret”; they are buying their own jobs. The Chinese are buying up tens of thousands of houses in the U.S., driving prices higher and Janet is okay with this too. The poor have always rented and lived off welfare…nothing new here. The former middle-class don’t give a shit about any this, they just want to know that Kim K. is doing okay, their team won and the markets will go ever higher. They can sleep well at night knowing Janet will defend their investments.
I don’t see the problem, other than the largest property bubble in all of history in the San Fran Bay area. You can be sure Janet has a plan…rest easy ZH’ers!
You can bullshit Permits, Starts don't lie.
All part of the fundemental transformation.