Proof Positive There Has Been No Recovery

Phoenix Capital Research's picture

By basing the whole “recovery” argument on fraudulent data, the Fed and Federal Government have backed themselves into a corner.


After all, anyone with a functioning brain knows that the unemployment data, and, GDP growth data are massaged at best and totally bogus at worst. By using these data points as bricks to build the argument that somehow spending $4 trillion in newly printed money (and issuing $11 trillion in new debt) was needed only reinforces one of two things:


1)   None of the people in charge of steering the economy have a clue what they’re doing …




2)   The whole thing was in fact a giant lie used to cover up the fact that none of the money was spent to try and generate economic growth.


How do we know the US is not in recovery? It’s really quite simple. If it were, the Fed wouldn’t have any issue with raising rates. Take a look at the below chart. Every other recession going back to 1954 saw rates begin to rise a few years into the recovery.



Here’s our latest “recovery.” We are now five to six years into it and rates are effectively at zero. The old adage says “actions speak louder than words.” You could literally skip all of the Fed FOMC minutes, speeches, and Q&A sessions. The below chart is exponentially louder than anything Yellen or the other Fed leaders could say.



The Fed and Feds can talk about recovery all they want. But it’s just talk. If the US was truly in recovery, interest rates would be rising.


So… if the money wasn’t spent on creating growth, why was it spent?


To stop the bond bubble from blowing up.


The bond bubble was $80 trillion going into 2008. Today it’s over $100 trillion. The US had $5 trillion in public debt going into 2008. Today it has over $18 trillion.


Part of this money went towards expanding the already bloated government with endless programs and social spending. But a significant portion of it went towards rolling over old debt. The US never had an extra $5 trillion lying around to pay off its old debts to begin with. And so it has been issuing new debt to cover for old debt that was coming due.


Indeed, between October and November of last year, the Federal Government issued $1 trillion in new debt… because it didn’t have the money to pay back old debt that was coming due. That’s just $1 trillion. Total US debt is above $18 trillion.


There is no recovery. There is only the bond bubble. And everything has been done to prop it up because when it bursts (as all bubbles do), entire countries (including the US) will go bust.


Then and only then we will have a true recovery.


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We made 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.


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To pick up yours, swing by….


Best Regards


Phoenix Capital Research


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Expat's picture

While this is true, it is also seven years old.

EddieLomax's picture

I look at that graph and can see the patient is dead, it flat lined a long time ago, welcome to the zombie economy.

RMolineaux's picture

It is a mystery to me how the Fed expects to raise the interest rate in the federal funds market while there are so much excess reserves of commercial banks on deposit at the Fed.  The banks can simply draw down these reserves at no cost and lend them commercially at current low rates.  The only cost to the banks will be the loss of the very low interest currently being paid to them on these reserves by the Fed.  If the Fed raises the rate it pays to commercial banks, the latter will thank the Fed for this gift (ultimately of taxpayer money), and leave the funds on deposit with the Fed rather than face the uncertainties of lending commercially.  If the Fed lowers the interest it pays to commercial banks, this will force the latter to find yield somewhere else, just like many investors are trying to do currently.  If they invest in government bonds, this may reduce the Fed's bloated balance sheet, but will do nothing to resolve the current lack of liquidity in the bond market.  Meanwhile the Fed's open market operations in the short-term treasury market will be spinning its wheels.

sodbuster's picture

You can't lend if there isn't a willing borrower.

NoPension's picture

Bank don't lend reserves. Bank " lend" money created out of thin air. The reserves are a percentage of the outstanding loan amount, the " fractional reserve".
No bank borrows at .25% and reloans at 4.5%, and keeps the spread.
Nor do They don't loan deposits.
They guarentee your credit worthiness, and loan you money they create out of nothing, backed by your real assets, which they will take if you default.

Exactly why so many here would like to see fucking bankers hanging from street lamps,from their ankles with piano wire.

Or, do I not know what I'm talking about?

OC Sure's picture



"The whole thing was in fact a giant lie used to cover up the fact that none of the money was spent to try and generate economic growth." 


That was not money they were spending.

It was counterfeit. 

That was not growth they were generating.

It was production they were stealing. 

p00k1e's picture

The unemployeds are excess capacity.  If you are unemployed right now, you will never work again. 

That’s a wrap! 

Creepy A. Cracker's picture

Ouch.  True, but ouch...


Or until the employed start dying, leaving vacancies.

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

You are all come work for Boris. Please to bring own rubber boot and thick leather glove. You are pay bonus if also experience in stripper.

Big Corked Boots's picture

Yes! I've stripped a lot of paint in my old-house days!

lunaticfringe's picture

It's not that bad. The point is a point of fact. With 5.6 unemployment (allegedly) and GDP (allegedly) in the 3.5 annualized growth range- the economy should have started over heating instead of contracting. So I think he makes the point clearly. There's nothing to slow down. We are merely crawling as it is.... and I still wager anyone here- that there will not be an interest rate hike by the FED this entire year.

They have their heads so far up their asses they need a window in their gut just to see down the hall.

King David's picture

Who writes this shit?

are we there yet's picture

That and similar articles on ZH, is how phoenix capital makes it money. Some of what is says is true, but all of it is an infomercial, or articlemercial.

Stuck on Zero's picture

"There's a huge recovery happening right now." - Warren Buffet.

NoPension's picture

An old friend was telling me about his son's new house. Son is doing great. Just promoted to lieutenant in a paid fire dept. $120,000 a year. Wifey works for a major " defense " contractor. All secret secret stuff. But is well in excess of $100,000 per year.
Good to suck .gov titty. Real good. Pretty much the only good out there,

Think about those you personally know doing "well" . How many get .gov check? Who doesn't? How many private peeps getting a nice pension?

Do I sound jealous or bitter? Well .gov used to be where slackers went to find stability. The old saw was , " it pays less, but easy work, no getting fired, good bennies and a pension". Good for the dullards.
Now, it's top pay, top bennies, top pensions. Gold plated shit , if you know the right people to get in. Well being all the "pay" has to come from taxes or borrowing, who will fund this largess? Private sector is tanking, fast and hard.

TheGreatRecovery's picture

Many firefighters volunteer extra-curricular time to work for candidates in local City election campaigns.  And they vote.  Smart.

sodbuster's picture

> Good for the dullards.<  Well, hell, that part hasn't changed.

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Proof positive metric for indication of economic recovery in Western country is measure of sag in chassis of Walmart patron scooter.