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SILVER: Buckle Up For A Big Move
There are several extremes in the silver market based on the data that we monitor. It is clear that a big move is underway.
Seasonal data shows that July and August are the strongest months of the year after January and February. We expect a rally during the summer months.
The daily chart indicates that silver is breaking out through a declining trend line that started last summer. That trendline, however, is being tested currently. So we really are at a pivotal point.
Source: Finviz
The weekly chart shows that silver is sitting exactly at the declining trend line that extends back to the peak in April 2011.
Source: Finviz
These trend lines are quite important. The key questions are whether the breakout will be confirmed on the weekly chart, and whether it will hold.
Last summer the strong U.S. dollar capped a rally in precious metals. Because the dollar is consolidating its recent gains, we do not believe that precious metals prices will be suppressed this summer.
Silver has declined 67% from its multi-decade top, which occurred in 2011. Since then the grey metal has been consolidating for 2 years. Market sentiment vis-à-vis silver is neutral to bearish. These conditions strongly suggest a rally and perhaps a new bull market.
Technically, silver started a secular rally in 2004 at $6 and peaked in April 2011 at $49.50. The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level comes in at $15.18, the multi year lows which was tested in October and November 2014.
Source: Stockcharts
Last month the short positions in SLV, the largest silver ETF, decreased by a huge -38%. Currently there are 12.8 million shares of SLV short out of 332.9 million shares, one of the lowest in many years.
Interestingly, the SLV ETF holds 856 million ounces of physical silver, which is almost identical to the February 2013 amount before the silver price collapsed. That is significant because GLD, the largest gold ETF, showed that its physical gold holdings decreased 34% in the same period of time. This contrast shows a healthy interest in silver.
The COMEX Commitment of Traders report for positions at the close of trading on Tuesday June 9th showed that 18,028 short contracts were covered by commercial traders. That is one of the largest changes in the history of COMEX silver. It comes 3 weeks after 19,706 short contracts were added by commercial traders (at the close of trading on Tuesday May 19th), also one of the largest changes ever. According to the latest data, open interest stands at 189,524 contracts, the highest in history, and equal to the previous top set in Q1 of 2008.
The rate of change in short positions by commercial traders, one of the key indicators we are monitoring, has moved aggressively from bearish to bullish in a matter of 3 weeks. There clearly is a lot of tension in the silver market, and the breakout or breakdown is going to be explosive.
Source: GoldchartsRus
If it would be some “good” news, the commercial short positions in COMEX gold are neutral.
So the key question really is whether silver is leading the precious metals complex lower.
Conclusion:
Silver is testing a critical trendline of both the daily and weekly chart. Given the seasonally strong months of July and August, we expect a rally in silver. However, given the large open interest in COMEX silver, a "false breakout" would invalidate that view. The pivot price is $16.50. Any sustained move above or below that price will determine the next short to intermediate cycle. Keep your eyes in silver now!
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Hey Praxis, you took the words out of my mind. Greece right now is the 800lb gorrilla in the room and if Syriza sticks to their guns the German Chancellor will have no other option other than to pull the plug on Greece and that action will most likely pull the plug on all paper assets. SIlver will be heading lower like it did during the other Lehman moment.
max
Bah... draw all the lines you want. This game is rigged. Natural price discovery has been dead for years. If it makes you feel good, buy it. But venture a guess what it's price is going to be or where it's going to go .... good luck with that.
It looks like a head and three shoulders. Or is it at the bottom of the Elliot Wave?
Dude, silver from the ground is not shiney, so that picture is bogus.
Secondly, why do none of your charts show VOLUME. Granville's #1 tell, and nobody anywhere on this ZH talks volume, only lack of......
AUGH.. Beam me up, Scotty.
I've been adding to my physical metal position in silver down here under 16. I'm an outright buyer from here to zero
8$ or less from here wouldn't surprise me though and I have more physical metal in my possession currently than my derrivative holdings in the sector but really that is the place to be cause after all if you wanna be long something may as well be long it 20x right?
"Interestingly, the SLV ETF holds 856 million ounces of physical silver, which is almost identical to the February 2013 amount before the silver price collapsed. That iis significant because GLD, the largest gold ETF, showed that its physical gold holdings decreased 34% in the same period of time. This contrast shows a healthy interest in silver."
actually, doesn't that show a healthy interest in (possessing) physical gold?
When the music stops will you have a chair at the table?
silver to $8 within a couple years
Silver is going to $8, your neighbors on both sides will have lost their jobs, your family and friends will be pleading for loans and supplies, the equity and bond markets will have collapsed, retail, commercial trade, and credit will have imploded: the knowledge that AG is cheap will be obvious, and using what's left of your cash to pay for it will be very uncomfortable.
A gram.
I hope silver goes to $8 so I can get my slimy hands on every last ounce I can find
I actually think it's unlike we'll see $15.50 again; except possibly for a part of a day. I think the market is pretty consolidated around here. Around the present prices, I mean.
Hell yes
LOL.
I know nothing about charts but I look at a fifty year chart and it looks as though we're at the bottom of the handle in a cup and handle formation.
I've been stacking all the way down the handle.
Lars told me a long time ago, late eighties, to stack silver.
I should have listened then instead of waiting for the rim of the cup.
But then again, who knows? Maybe it won't matter, $4 or $40 makes little difference if the decimal point moves right a few digits.
I think a good bottom is in; and I'm already long Dec. Futures; but I have my long term bullion left over; with accumulated stoage charges it's at around $6.87 / oz. now. Not too worried.
When the chart looks like a moose wearing a tutu and dancing a rumba, SELL immediately.
Looking at a 50-year chart Detroit real estate bottomed.
Could be a throw over within a contracting triangle that’ll break to new lows.
http://fofoa.blogspot.ca/
And now for something completely differentt. Another point of view.
FOFOA the Huckster
I learned a lot from him, but the best lesson was when to stop reading...
"Silver is overvalued." Fofoa also says a gold-to-silver ratio of 20,000:1 is probable. Everybody has their blind spot and fofoa's is his outlandish thoughts regarding silver. As long as there are people who can't afford to hold gold, silver will remain the precious metal of choice for the average guy.
Then again, I guess anything is possible. Maybe 5000+ years of human history with respect to the relationship between gold and silver will be tossed completely out the window after the great reset. /s
More room to the downside when the Euro takes a dump and people move into the dollar. When the dollar takes a dump then silver will soar - relative to the dollar.
Sold my last 360 oz at 17.70.... fuck this shit
Glad I haven't needed the money
LOL. Squid Delicious. My credit union is offering .25% on 90 day CD's.
I hope someday silver miners stop pricing their product based on the CME paper silver price. Another option would be they actually ban together and stop selling for a month as Keith Neumeyer of First Majestic Silver suggested. Even if they don't have the guts to actually do that, if the price of silver keeps going down, eventually miners will start going out of business and supply will dry up. When there is no physical for sale, maybe the CME paper silver price will more accurately reflect underlying supply and demand. Maybe?
Nice bounce today after the cartel raid:
Gold And Silver Bounce After Blatant Paper Attack – Dave Kranzlerhttp://thenewsdoctors.com/?p=470498
Kind of an Interesting Hobby,stacking silver, every time i go to buy more the price is lower.. hopefully some day somebody is going to say.. hey sell that back to me.. and i can just chuckle and say.. Nah..
I'm pulling the trigger on a monster box at $15-all in.
(IF it gets there!)
buy now
avoid the rush
price doesn't mater
possession does
It's heartening to know that at least some of us here get it. Get that charts and fundamentals don't mean a thing as long as the manipulators are in complete control. So far I don't see any evidence of that changing. I do find that the idea is catching on though. God damn all lies and liars.
we few, we happy few, we band of silver holders . . .
I honestly believe those of us in the metals care nothing about the price untill the shtf and then they wont be worth anything in this fiat chitpaper. So let it cradt to 1$ so I caan buy more and cost average my40$ silver and my 1400 gold . Mine not for sale untill either the economy is fixed and my dollar is safe and in that case my metals will be there when I want to sell but how do they fix this when so many are out of work
These guys are just looking into a cracked crystal ball, might as well be the Eye of Sauron.
Actually you might have better luck with Sauron.
Sauron more honest about intentions than Skull n' Bones
Tricksey hobbitses, can't be trusted!
For my money, we could just as likely see new lows as a big move up. I do however agree we might see a short-term breakout.
Just out of interest, was silver manipulated before 2011 or only after? Anyway, the technicals still work for me.
In other news, BTC is having a big up day.
The CFTC hiked margin requirements FIVE times in 2011 and broke silver's back. I can't remember that happening in any other commodity in the 54 years I've been on the rock. So there ya go unc.
How do chart lines work when fundementals don't mean shit? You can't chart a rigged market. Silver will go up when TSHTF or when TPTB let it.
Most people who speculate on the day to day price of silver are missing the point of it altogether.. because the majority of people cannot comprehend that there will come a day when the world discovers that a dollar has no value.. we do not have free markets so nobody knows what the true value of $1 is and nobody knows what the true value of 1 oz is. I'd rather be 10 years early than 1 day late.
You said it TFH...Articles like this are just from authors to make a buck. They have no clue, or if they do, then they lie to make a buck...I thought by now that everyone knew that the PM prices were manipulated, and as you said, silver wont go up until the jew masters let it...And even then, when it goes sky high, they will make it illegal to own....IMHO, the only to hold silver, is to be on top of things, and when it gets higher, to know when to sell before they outlaw it. A small window I presume.. I dont know, just another observation. When we have psychopathic, satanic, evil, murdering, thieves, child blood sucking pedophiles running things, who knows?
I'm with you on that one.
Charts can map the emotions of investers, but fundamentals are supposed to be the bottom line, and PMs have been manipulated in defiance of the fundamentals for a long time.
I'd hate to try making a living in this market, but as it's just a hobby; I'm still stacking :)
How do chart lines work when fundementals don't mean shit? You can't chart a rigged market. Silver will go up when TSHTF or when TPTB let it.
For some reason the song .. Those Magnificent Men in Their Flying machines comes to mind .. they go uppity up and go downity down down .. up down flying aroud looping the loop and defying ground .. . in any event .. until the rigged market is no longer rigged... they will continue to smash gold and silver .. PM charts mean about as much as the tooth fairy .. a nice story for kids.. or the naive and true believer .. but still a fairy tale .. but keep stacking . at some poin tin th enext 50 years .. the investment or PM insurance for maintaining your real wealth will pay off ............also good lead ... food . water and a second home on the border between Canada and US out of the way of the maddening crowds when their EBT cards stop working
Y'all know from the prior ZH article yesterday that silver 'spiked' up. No article about the 'spike' back down. @ $16 phys is good to buy. @ $10 - $12 that some here keep insisting will happen I will liquidate all my other stuff and load up but not counting on it. Gotta wait on the overlords to show us the allowed path.
With "Grexit" coming how can anyone seriously believe silver will rocket higher? If anything the dollar will explode higher and the floor will be ripped out on sliver...however, if you're patient and wait till the dust settles and back up the truck at @10-11 per ounce then congratulate yourself cos you finally caught the bottom
I tend to agree. I have a lot of dry powder ready and am thinking 11-12 on silver, 950-1000 gold in the next 90 days. I think the explosive move will be down and wipe out every last and weak hand. Blood in the streets.
Buying physical and miners. Grabbed this link for the like minded. http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2015/06/gold-surviving-the-last...
patience; this fucking picnic has a fucking tornado coming and nobody is watching the sky...