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Broad Decline In "Dot Plots" Suggest Fed Rate Hike Confidence Shaky
While virtually every single word change from the June statement compared to the April document shows a Fed that is increasingly more confident in the economy, the reason why the dollar has encountered a sudden air pocket following the Fed release is not due to the statement but what is in the Fed's projection materials, where the Fed unambiguously cut its 2015 GDP central tendency forecast from 2.3%-2.7% in March to just 1.8%-2.0%, coupled with a pick up in the unemployment rate from 5.0%-5.2% to 5.2%-5.3%, suggesting quite implicitly that while on one hand the Fed is more optimistic, when it comes to quantitative metrics it just got that much more bearish.
But nowhere is the Fed's ambivalence more evident than in the latest dot, or dart as we call them, plots of where every single FOMC member expects the Fed Funds rate at the end of 2015 and 2016. The wholesale drop in FF expectations, from 1.875% in March to 1.625% currently for 2016, is quite clear and suggests that while 15 people said it was time to hike rates in 2015 (vs 2 in 2016), their conviction is even lower than 3 months ago.
2015 dot plot:
And 2016:
And for those asking, here is the 2015 dot plot from June of 2014 compared to the latest one.
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hahahahahaha rate hike!!!! you made a funny
I think I found missing flight MH370 in the 2016 graph.
Actually, I think the FED will be forced into a rate raise fairly soon. The bond market is walking away from them, and the FED will lose the false aura of rate control ability if they don't follow.
Looks like the March drone crashed into the June ground...
Those GDP and unemployment expectations aint so pretty....
Foolish to eat this $hit
I just wrote myself a note reading, "...market movements post-FOMC due to Fed's dots turning more dovish", then I laughed out loud.
hence the yield curve steepens by 6 basis points. what a freaking manipulated sh*tshow
The one on the right looks like a MiG-21.
The one on the left looks like an Su-25.
Question for ZeroHedgers:
CNBNC site has a lousy layout and gives me more error messages than successful page loads.
MarketWatch has too many socialists/marxist writers.
What's a good site for keeping up with the markets during the trading hours?
You mean like for free on the internet? Yahoo Finance isn't completely awful.
Thanks! Maybe I can put with them for a while.
Yahoo's editing is on the level of 5 year old. The true answer is that there isn't one.
http://finance.yahoo.com/
everything is freaking great, but GDP will only grow by 2% at most so go out and buy stocks and short treasuries.
RIP our country
No hikes are coming. Yellen has to get hilary elected. Buy the precious metals- and heavy metals too.
If this is gonna work, they have got to up the virgin sacrafices substantially.
It does not matter what any public opinion poll says. It is what THEY want that matters.
"THEY" as in their bank masters.
they all look like cock & ballz to me
Looks like the same dot plot from 2010, 2011,2012,2013... well you get the idea. By now according to the FED 2010 dot plot we would be between 2.5-3 %
The current depression in America still has about 10 years left in it. Don't expect big changes in America, can't speak for Europe, etc., that's a bit blurry to predict.
I've finished prepping for a full collapse, now I'm covering what appears to be a more likely contingency, muddling through for the next 10 years that may be very similar to the last 7.
Plaaning only for your favored outcome is too often a huge mistake. That's why I avoid hoping for any outcome. I observe and react accordingly. My goal is to prosper no matter the outcome.
Really? And how do you chances fare when taking Fukushima and WWIII into account?
Ok, so the fed's projections are biased. But where are they headed?
compare June 2014's 2015 projection with June 2015's 2016 projection.