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Destroying The Data-Dependent Dot-Plots, Here's Janet Yellen's Real "Surprises" In 2 Simple Charts

Tyler Durden's picture




 

But don't worry Steve Liesman is certain it's all good in the 'dots'...

 

Surprise!!! (Soft data - surveys and business cycle indicators have collapsed)

 

Surprise-erer!!! (Hard data - all economic data has plunged with a very modest bounce from depression lows)

 

So exactly which data is the Fed dependent on?

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Source: Thad Beversdorf via FirstRebuttal.com

 

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Wed, 06/17/2015 - 17:33 | 6207044 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture
"Destroying The Data-Dependent Dot-Plots, Here's Janet Yellen's Real "Surprises" In 2 Simple Charts"

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOTlNOZB4Zo

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 17:39 | 6207049 lordylord
lordylord's picture

gotta love graphs without labels.  No definition of "surprise index" and no source for the data.  I guess as long as graphs have one red curve, one green curve, and lots of arrows, it passes for good on this site.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 17:43 | 6207054 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

The X axis is year.

lol

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 17:40 | 6207056 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

FOMC = "F Over Middle Class"

Celebrating 100 year of wealth destruction while enrich status quo kleptocracy.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 17:44 | 6207076 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

In other news, Jimmy Lee, Vice Chairman of JP Morgan has died today.

Sadly, he did not have a soul.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 17:54 | 6207111 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Well, he did until he sold it to a "B. L. Zeebub".

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 18:33 | 6207184 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

How about 1 simple chart...we forgot to add any full time jobs since '07 while the population increased 18 million. 

What a load of shit...if these are the good times, pretty sure the next downturn will be stupendous.

The Fed's Gauges (and/or The Fed Itself) Are Entirely Full of Shit Regarding Employment...Here's Why

http://econimica.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-feds-gauges-andor-fed-itself-are.html

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 18:35 | 6207224 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

USSA is measure unemployment/employment by job created OR save.

In other news, is increase of chocolate ration from 20g per week to 50g per month and war in Eurasia is winning.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 19:01 | 6207308 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Boris = genius.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 17:42 | 6207064 lordylord
lordylord's picture

Correction. I see the source now.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 18:49 | 6207262 indygo55
indygo55's picture

Source for the data? Well if you click on the "source" link you will see its Bloomberg. And yes the bottom is the year and the verticle index is the S&P 500 and well what a stupid comment. Dumbass!

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 20:45 | 6207567 Lets Buy The Dip
Lets Buy The Dip's picture

Everyone keeps talking about the stinkin’ FED raising rates.

What baloney! Until I see evidence of this, I have to be skeptical sorry.

One Market analyst I listen to ==> http://www.bit.ly/1GgvUtE calls are rediculously accurate. He basically has a great knowledge and predicted the 2008, and just released his video on what he thinks is coming. WOW.

Regarding yellen, they are tricking people every dummy knows the first 12-24 months of interest rate rises
usually does not effect the market. And every man and his dog is calling for the market to CRASH here!.

For now their game is get everyone short, TRAP THEM and then take us up higher!! yes that old chest nut. Fool me once, shame on you. Then….fool me twice SHAME ON ME!

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 21:56 | 6207794 James-Morrison
James-Morrison's picture

In the time it took you to type your comment, you could have googled and discovered it is the Bloomberg ECO surprise index.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 18:30 | 6207210 BullyBearish
BullyBearish's picture

Fu&^ing synagogue of satan bankers can't stop stealing from savers and enriching themselves...7 years into a "recovery" and we're still at ZIRP while the whore waffles about .25%...Destruction to the Moneychangers

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 20:18 | 6207499 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

you held back on the FUCK but synagogue of satan just blurted out? lol... anyway +1000

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 17:34 | 6207047 zebrakid
zebrakid's picture

divergence!

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 17:45 | 6207077 CHX
CHX's picture

MOAR divergencer

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 17:58 | 6207122 lordylord
lordylord's picture

There wasn't any correlation to begin with.  I guess the well placed arrows tricked you.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 17:39 | 6207055 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

thanks Tyler I'm going all in short tomorrow, this is gonna be sweet!

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 17:42 | 6207065 gmak
gmak's picture

+1 for the lol.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 17:53 | 6207060 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Lots of surprises these days...

 

92 year record cold June so far in Norway... (Kaldeste juni på 92 år)

http://www.adressa.no/vaeret/article11210577.ece

And record warmist May in 91 years at least in Alaska... including a record low 25 inches of snow from Sept 2014 to May2015 or 1/3 of average producing drought like conditions...

https://news.vice.com/article/last-month-was-the-hottest-may-on-record-i...

Not that we haven't seen both of these particular climatic variations occurring concurrently before. Anyway this time the "Climate Scientists" say the CO2 will save us...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beringia

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 18:13 | 6207167 lordylord
lordylord's picture

Incredible.  Maybe the pope can chime in on this since he's so interested in blaming industrialized sinners for climate change. 

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 20:28 | 6207518 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

wow, thanks for the brief cliff notes, no reason to bother with the encyclical ... lol, 33 minutes until Hannity...

 

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 17:52 | 6207100 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

dick and ballz, that's all i see in any of these charts anymore. i may need psychoanalysis.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 17:57 | 6207117 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Yellen sat and the lines on the graph
Moved from side to side

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 17:59 | 6207123 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

I don't even see the ballz anymore...

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 18:25 | 6207168 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

if you've tried to short it's a giant "dick up your ass" formation since 2009, can see it clearly now on the monthly; weekly; daily and hourly charts

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 18:32 | 6207216 11b40
11b40's picture

Yep.....even I am amazed at how much money I lost before finally accepting that shorts and stops are little more than targets for the algos.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 18:08 | 6207151 zeroaccountability
zeroaccountability's picture

Surprise!!  We've been in a recession since December.

 

NO Surprise!   We've been in a Depression since 2008.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 18:47 | 6207259 ajkreider
ajkreider's picture

It's quiz time again!

If all of the indicators miss on the downside, but all of the indicators are still in expansion mode, the economy is:

A) Expanding
B) In recession

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 22:03 | 6207815 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

C) The recession is expanding

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 19:18 | 6207353 Zen Master
Zen Master's picture

Janet Yellen Exposed...You have seen it here first!

https://scontent-lga1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xat1/v/t1.0-9/11125266_9716...

 

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 19:38 | 6207390 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

"Surprise Surprise Surprise" is:

a) expression often used by Jim Nabors in 60s sitcom 'Gomer Pyle, U.S.M.C.'

b) understated, brooding album by obscure 80s band Miracle Legion

c) title of powerpoint slide used at last 3 FOMC meetings

d) all of the above

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 20:24 | 6207507 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

e) more lyrics KCS!

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 20:53 | 6207593 Keltner Channel Surf
Keltner Channel Surf's picture

Was gonna stop when I hit the 100 parody mark in a few days, but now I'm not sure I can stop ...  (someone please help me ...)

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 23:00 | 6207931 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  Tyler please use the "dead cat" moniker in your future charts.

 The "dead Cat" is the " Deer in the headlights" drinking buddy.

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