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FOMC Forecasts Economic Improvement But Sees Weaker Inflation, Sets Tone For September Rate Hike

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With data showing very little sign of the Q2 post-weather bounce that The Fed forecast, and markets quaking in their boots on every 'good' data print, The Fed remains cornered - desperate to hike (to regain some ammo) but needing to lie through their teeth in order to rationalize why...

  • *FED FORECASTS IMPLY TWO QUARTER-POINT RATE INCREASES THIS YEAR
  • *FED SAYS ECONOMY EXPANDING `MODERATELY,' JOB GROWTH PICKED UP
  • *FED REPEATS INTL DEVELOPMENTS TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT

So the bottom line - The Fed has no idea still, is data-dependent (unless the data disagrees with them), and is now the world's plunge protection team. It seems the IMF's warnings have been ignored.

Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 2091, 10Y 2.387%, EUR 1.1260, Gold $1178

*  *  *

Reuters was excited pre-FOMC...

 

Here's what happened after the March FOMC meeting...

 

Since the March FOMC meeting (the last press conference)... The Dow is unchanged, oil and silver and gold are notably higher, bonds worst...

 

And since the last Fed rate hike in June 2006...

*  *  *

  • *FED REPEATS LIFTOFF HINGES ON ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC PROGRESS
  • *FED: GROWTH IN CONSUMER SPENDING MODERATE, HOUSING IMPROVED
  • *FED SAYS LABOR MARKET SLACK HAS `DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT'
  • *FED SAYS ENERGY PRICES STABILIZED, INVESTMENT AND EXPORTS SOFT

 

And here is the redline comparison with April

 

 

 

 

*  *  *

Given the following charts...

and Janet Yellen's cognitive dissonance on the future economy... This clip seemed appropriate (h/t @Emerald_ip)

 

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Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:02 | 6206307 Billy Sol Estes
Billy Sol Estes's picture

About as believable as Rachel Dolezal.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:05 | 6206323 InjectTheVenom
InjectTheVenom's picture

Yellen

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:07 | 6206333 HonkyShogun
HonkyShogun's picture

Economic Improvement = new ways for economists to lie their asses off.

 

Speaking of which, does Hillary have access to Bill's old crew?

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:08 | 6206339 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

And now, back to Greece..

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:09 | 6206345 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

They know damn well that its going down now...so promises will be forgotten.

 

Long Physical.

 

RIPS

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:33 | 6206418 BuddyEffed
BuddyEffed's picture

From my observations, it looks like both the rate hike and weaker inflation are empty threats.  Expect the exact opposite.   Statements like these are to be expected as part of the mind games that are played at the over the top level.  Another likely mind game is the cashless society meme being floated in the media.   Too many weak points and single points of failure for that to go official in my opinion.   But playing the "cashless" mind game does has an effect on some sheeple.   Many will reason that if they take cash out now or soon to avoid NIRP then the money might have to be put right back in due to the cashless capital controls.  So why bother, will be concluded by some.  But those paying attention should rightly be concerned about a significant percentage haircut that could occur on the BAIL IN wildcard.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:02 | 6206308 IndyPat
IndyPat's picture

This is news? I got my copy of this last night...

Oh, you weren't on that list.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:17 | 6206362 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

You must be on the shit list.  I got mine yesterday morning, which is why I spent the day yesterday buying shit on credit.  To da moon, Janet!

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:03 | 6206311 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

yellen is so far backed into a corner, her gut doesnt even touch the door that is 12 feet away!!!

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:03 | 6206315 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

K-Hen is furiously buying all the things. 

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:23 | 6206388 Banker Buster
Banker Buster's picture

K-Hen is about to be K-holed when this thing snaps in his face.

 

I still await his interview on 60 minutes after the collapse "but but but (sniffle sniffle), they said I was doing good, I don't know nothin.  All I do is manipulate things with unlimited taxpayer funded debt."

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:03 | 6206316 taketheredpill
taketheredpill's picture

 

 

Breaking:  Fire engulphs offices of Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank...

 

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:18 | 6206376 Magnix
Magnix's picture

Hahahahaha - Burn! Burn it down!

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:03 | 6206317 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Whaddya know!??  this (rate hikes)is bullish for stocks.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:04 | 6206320 buzzsaw99
Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:05 | 6206324 davidalan1
davidalan1's picture

"stocks push higher" per cnbc...well duh...

 

The video is classic with the chart turn over

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:05 | 6206325 Racer
Racer's picture

Even after all these YEARS they cannot raise rates even a miniscule amount

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:19 | 6206379 Taffy Lewis
Taffy Lewis's picture

This morning I closed on a house with 20 acres (Kansas; 20% down) with the intent of paying off a huge chunk of principle in the next couple of years. My job in IT depends somewhat on the shit show continuing for awhile so I am taking a gamble (for most people going into debt would be normal but for me it's taking a gamble).

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:05 | 6206326 Roger Shermanator
Roger Shermanator's picture

So... just buy stawks as always?

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:05 | 6206327 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

That mini documentary shows the inner workings of the Obama white house.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:06 | 6206329 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

*FED FORECASTS IMPLY TWO QUARTER-POINT RATE INCREASES THIS YEAR

Fed keeps lying to keep dollar strong. There is no way the Fed can increase interest rates twice this year.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:11 | 6206352 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

*Fed keeps lying to keep dollar strong. There is no way the Fed can increase interest rates ever.

Fixed

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:30 | 6206361 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

No they can't raise rates until around the beginning of the next federal budget fiscal year which is Oct 1st. this year. They have to give the federal government the heads up how much their interest payments after Oct. 1st will be so they can budget around revenues to service those payments. Maturing debt is already factored in. There will be no rate hikes if they cause a missed interest payment default, they have to take into account the possibility of a government shutdown when hiking rates. That gives a window of about a month before which means they have to let the Treasury know even earlier like now so the decision has already been made. If no interest payments need to be made in September then that makes it even more likely they announce it then instead of waiting until October or afterwards.

The only 2 factors that matter are Federal debt interest payments+debt that reaches maturity in relation to incoming revenues need to run govt. at the absolute bare minimum, everything else is jawboning. If they fuck the federal government over and then the fed gov doesn't send in the military to round the fed res heads up....

Remember who has the guns.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:06 | 6206330 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  That bald headed fucktard LIEsman had the audacity to suggest that the Fed. will still raise in September and even threw around the idea of a 50bps hike! What a clown.

 That was my 60 seconds of the BLOWHORN for the month...

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:06 | 6206331 replaceme
replaceme's picture

So wait, they are not raising the rate today?  WHHHHHAAAAATTTT????  <BLINK!>   One other random expression of disbelief.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:07 | 6206332 aliki
aliki's picture

US Dollar disagrees with everything CNBC "commentating" on.

SHOCKER - another GDP downgrade

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:08 | 6206340 john_connor
john_connor's picture

Liquidity Trap.

They have ZERO credibility.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:08 | 6206341 i_call_you_my_base
i_call_you_my_base's picture

Thank you Janet, we love you.

- Wall Street

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:08 | 6206342 Squid Viscous
Squid Viscous's picture

if the FED kikes be speakin' shorts be weepin' y'all

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:09 | 6206346 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

1/4 point increments ala the "maestro"??!!! What a bunch of hack losers big bank pawns. Absolutely pathetic.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:09 | 6206347 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Long corrugated cardboard...

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:11 | 6206353 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

OK, they´ve been setting the tone for a hike for years and it was absolutely going to happen now. Same old can kicking. Fast forward to Sept. it´ll be the same spin.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:11 | 6206354 Spungo
Spungo's picture

Thank god there's no wage inflation. Can you imagine a world where people actually had a future?

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:12 | 6206355 B2u
B2u's picture

I wanna be a FED and how about letting me be black to?  I can use shoe polish.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:12 | 6206356 wmbz
wmbz's picture

I just want to know who, if any, dumb ass has ever believed the un-fed was going to raise rates? They can't!  Well they could but they will not.

This shit is heading off the rails, and they keep right on stoking the boiler. They'll trot out the same old worn out bullshit statements in Sept. 

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:12 | 6206358 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  The Fed. should be renamed, "The Eccles House of Mirrors". 

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:13 | 6206359 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Bullish for everything.

Except Gold, of course. ROFLMAO.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:27 | 6206405 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Patience BamHopper. Patience. 

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:19 | 6206378 aliki
aliki's picture

when does CNBC take itself off the air? "setting the table to raise rates"??? did u NOT read the fucking statement? they SLASHED GDP estimates on-top of admitting their prior forecasts where WAY OFF.

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:21 | 6206382 cn13
cn13's picture

U.S. politicians and the Federal Reserve = Serial Liars.

Why does anyone even waste their time listening to anything they say?

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:22 | 6206386 Jungle Jim
Jungle Jim's picture

I don't have any stocks and I don't want any. I just want to know which way metals prices are headed, and how soon. Does this have any bearing on that?

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:24 | 6206395 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

HA HA. 2006. Last time Fed Raised Rates. Literally the last time !

Wed, 06/17/2015 - 14:34 | 6206436 Fun Facts
Fun Facts's picture

The asshole Khazars at the FED have been talking about raising rates "six months from now" for more than four years.

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