FOMC Forecasts Economic Improvement But Sees Weaker Inflation, Sets Tone For September Rate Hike

Tyler Durden's picture

With data showing very little sign of the Q2 post-weather bounce that The Fed forecast, and markets quaking in their boots on every 'good' data print, The Fed remains cornered - desperate to hike (to regain some ammo) but needing to lie through their teeth in order to rationalize why...

  • *FED FORECASTS IMPLY TWO QUARTER-POINT RATE INCREASES THIS YEAR
  • *FED SAYS ECONOMY EXPANDING `MODERATELY,' JOB GROWTH PICKED UP
  • *FED REPEATS INTL DEVELOPMENTS TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT

So the bottom line - The Fed has no idea still, is data-dependent (unless the data disagrees with them), and is now the world's plunge protection team. It seems the IMF's warnings have been ignored.

Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 2091, 10Y 2.387%, EUR 1.1260, Gold $1178

*  *  *

Reuters was excited pre-FOMC...

 

Here's what happened after the March FOMC meeting...

 

Since the March FOMC meeting (the last press conference)... The Dow is unchanged, oil and silver and gold are notably higher, bonds worst...

 

And since the last Fed rate hike in June 2006...

*  *  *

  • *FED REPEATS LIFTOFF HINGES ON ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMIC PROGRESS
  • *FED: GROWTH IN CONSUMER SPENDING MODERATE, HOUSING IMPROVED
  • *FED SAYS LABOR MARKET SLACK HAS `DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT'
  • *FED SAYS ENERGY PRICES STABILIZED, INVESTMENT AND EXPORTS SOFT

 

And here is the redline comparison with April

 

 

 

 

*  *  *

Given the following charts...

and Janet Yellen's cognitive dissonance on the future economy... This clip seemed appropriate (h/t @Emerald_ip)

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Billy Sol Estes's picture

About as believable as Rachel Dolezal.

HonkyShogun's picture
HonkyShogun (not verified) InjectTheVenom Jun 17, 2015 2:07 PM

Economic Improvement = new ways for economists to lie their asses off.

 

Speaking of which, does Hillary have access to Bill's old crew?

Deathrips's picture

They know damn well that its going down now...so promises will be forgotten.

 

Long Physical.

 

RIPS

BuddyEffed's picture

From my observations, it looks like both the rate hike and weaker inflation are empty threats.  Expect the exact opposite.   Statements like these are to be expected as part of the mind games that are played at the over the top level.  Another likely mind game is the cashless society meme being floated in the media.   Too many weak points and single points of failure for that to go official in my opinion.   But playing the "cashless" mind game does has an effect on some sheeple.   Many will reason that if they take cash out now or soon to avoid NIRP then the money might have to be put right back in due to the cashless capital controls.  So why bother, will be concluded by some.  But those paying attention should rightly be concerned about a significant percentage haircut that could occur on the BAIL IN wildcard.

IndyPat's picture

This is news? I got my copy of this last night...

Oh, you weren't on that list.

firstdivision's picture

You must be on the shit list.  I got mine yesterday morning, which is why I spent the day yesterday buying shit on credit.  To da moon, Janet!

101 years and counting's picture

yellen is so far backed into a corner, her gut doesnt even touch the door that is 12 feet away!!!

firstdivision's picture

K-Hen is furiously buying all the things. 

Banker Buster's picture

K-Hen is about to be K-holed when this thing snaps in his face.

 

I still await his interview on 60 minutes after the collapse "but but but (sniffle sniffle), they said I was doing good, I don't know nothin.  All I do is manipulate things with unlimited taxpayer funded debt."

taketheredpill's picture

 

 

Breaking:  Fire engulphs offices of Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank...

 

Magnix's picture

Hahahahaha - Burn! Burn it down!

Ness.'s picture

Whaddya know!??  this (rate hikes)is bullish for stocks.

davidalan1's picture

"stocks push higher" per cnbc...well duh...

 

The video is classic with the chart turn over

Racer's picture

Even after all these YEARS they cannot raise rates even a miniscule amount

Taffy Lewis's picture

This morning I closed on a house with 20 acres (Kansas; 20% down) with the intent of paying off a huge chunk of principle in the next couple of years. My job in IT depends somewhat on the shit show continuing for awhile so I am taking a gamble (for most people going into debt would be normal but for me it's taking a gamble).

Roger Shermanator's picture

So... just buy stawks as always?

Dr. Engali's picture

That mini documentary shows the inner workings of the Obama white house.

JustObserving's picture

*FED FORECASTS IMPLY TWO QUARTER-POINT RATE INCREASES THIS YEAR

Fed keeps lying to keep dollar strong. There is no way the Fed can increase interest rates twice this year.

firstdivision's picture

*Fed keeps lying to keep dollar strong. There is no way the Fed can increase interest rates ever.

Fixed

Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

No they can't raise rates until around the beginning of the next federal budget fiscal year which is Oct 1st. this year. They have to give the federal government the heads up how much their interest payments after Oct. 1st will be so they can budget around revenues to service those payments. Maturing debt is already factored in. There will be no rate hikes if they cause a missed interest payment default, they have to take into account the possibility of a government shutdown when hiking rates. That gives a window of about a month before which means they have to let the Treasury know even earlier like now so the decision has already been made. If no interest payments need to be made in September then that makes it even more likely they announce it then instead of waiting until October or afterwards.

The only 2 factors that matter are Federal debt interest payments+debt that reaches maturity in relation to incoming revenues need to run govt. at the absolute bare minimum, everything else is jawboning. If they fuck the federal government over and then the fed gov doesn't send in the military to round the fed res heads up....

Remember who has the guns.

Yen Cross's picture

  That bald headed fucktard LIEsman had the audacity to suggest that the Fed. will still raise in September and even threw around the idea of a 50bps hike! What a clown.

 That was my 60 seconds of the BLOWHORN for the month...

replaceme's picture

So wait, they are not raising the rate today?  WHHHHHAAAAATTTT????  <BLINK!>   One other random expression of disbelief.

aliki's picture

US Dollar disagrees with everything CNBC "commentating" on.

SHOCKER - another GDP downgrade

john_connor's picture

Liquidity Trap.

They have ZERO credibility.

i_call_you_my_base's picture

Thank you Janet, we love you.

- Wall Street

Squid Viscous's picture

if the FED kikes be speakin' shorts be weepin' y'all

Rathmullan's picture

1/4 point increments ala the "maestro"??!!! What a bunch of hack losers big bank pawns. Absolutely pathetic.

Stoploss's picture

Long corrugated cardboard...

Mr_Wonderful's picture

OK, they´ve been setting the tone for a hike for years and it was absolutely going to happen now. Same old can kicking. Fast forward to Sept. it´ll be the same spin.

Spungo's picture

Thank god there's no wage inflation. Can you imagine a world where people actually had a future?

B2u's picture

I wanna be a FED and how about letting me be black to?  I can use shoe polish.

wmbz's picture

I just want to know who, if any, dumb ass has ever believed the un-fed was going to raise rates? They can't!  Well they could but they will not.

This shit is heading off the rails, and they keep right on stoking the boiler. They'll trot out the same old worn out bullshit statements in Sept. 

Yen Cross's picture

  The Fed. should be renamed, "The Eccles House of Mirrors". 

Bam_Man's picture

Bullish for everything.

Except Gold, of course. ROFLMAO.

Seasmoke's picture

Patience BamHopper. Patience. 

aliki's picture

when does CNBC take itself off the air? "setting the table to raise rates"??? did u NOT read the fucking statement? they SLASHED GDP estimates on-top of admitting their prior forecasts where WAY OFF.

cn13's picture

U.S. politicians and the Federal Reserve = Serial Liars.

Why does anyone even waste their time listening to anything they say?

Jungle Jim's picture

I don't have any stocks and I don't want any. I just want to know which way metals prices are headed, and how soon. Does this have any bearing on that?

Seasmoke's picture

HA HA. 2006. Last time Fed Raised Rates. Literally the last time !

Fun Facts's picture

The asshole Khazars at the FED have been talking about raising rates "six months from now" for more than four years.