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CPI Misses Despite Surge In Gasoline Prices, Core Inflation Rise Is Smallest In 2015
Another nail in the "imminent rate hike" coffin thesis came moments ago when the BLS reported that May CPI missed both on the headline (0.4%, exp.0.5%) and on the core (0.1%, exp. 0.2%) despite a 10.4% surge in the price of gasoline. Other energy indexes were mixed, with the fuel oil index rising but the electricity index declining and the index for natural gas unchanged. The food index was unchanged for the second month in a row, as a decline in the food at home index offset an increase in the index for food away from home.
Core CPI:
At least this time, the BLS was not so naive as to try to pass the latest record rent prints as a drop in housing costs saying that "the index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in May, its smallest increase since December. The indexes for shelter, airline fares, and medical care all increased, as did the indexes for personal care, recreation, new vehicles, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco." But if you rent has you down, fear not: at least you can dress in style and buy furniture for that apartment you can't afford: "the indexes for apparel, for household furnishings and operations, and for used cars and trucks all declined in May."
The full breakdown of May's CPI:
But all eyes on gasoline which, since plunging gas prices were "unambiguously good" for consumers, then a 30% increase in the last 4 months must be unambigously bad, right Larry Kudlow?
Perhaps what is most surprising is that like Europe, so the heat map of US inflation is also quite regional, with only California seeing a jump in inflation mostly on soaring gas prices in the state. Everywhere else: deflation.
- NorthEast -0.3%
- MidWest -0.8%
- South -0.4%
- West +1.2%
And while the BLS' inflation measures of food and housing are so stretched and manipulated as to be utterly meaningless, here is where in the CPI report the prices of the all important core items moved:
The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in May following a 0.3 percent increase in April. The shelter index, which rose 0.3 percent in April, increased 0.2 percent in May. The indexes for rent and owners' equivalent rent both rose 0.3 percent, but the index for lodging away from home turned down in May, falling 2.0 percent. The index for airline fares, which had declined 5 of the last 6 months, rose sharply in May, increasing 5.7 percent. The medical care index rose 0.2 percent in May after increasing 0.7 percent in April. The hospital services index rose 0.5 percent and the index for prescription drugs advanced 0.4 percent. The personal care index rose 0.3 percent in May, while the recreation index increased 0.1 percent. Also increasing in May were the indexes for new vehicles (0.2 percent), tobacco (0.4 percent), and alcoholic beverages (0.2 percent). In contrast to these increases, the apparel index declined 0.5 percent in May. The index for household furnishings and operations fell 0.3 percent, and the index for used cars and trucks decreased 0.4 percent.
The index for all items less food and energy has risen 1.7 percent over the past 12 months, a slight decline from the 1.8-percent increase for the 12 months ending April. The shelter index has risen 2.9 percent over the last year, the medical care index has increased 2.8 percent, and the new vehicles index has advanced 0.8 percent. The indexes for airline fares, apparel, and used cars and trucks have all declined over the past 12 months.
In conclusion: another month in which the Fed's trillions in reserves end up almost entirely in the stock market and NYC penthouses, with little trickling down into clothes and other "core" items, even as beef prices and asking rent hit record highs month after month.
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Bullish news
Bullshit news
The pace of printing prosperity has moderated.....
Gas and beef.....who needs that crap?
"...The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America. Updated and released twice a year, it reports the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation.
It exposes why middle-class Americans — salaried workers who are given routine pay hikes and retirees who depend on annual increases in their corporate pension and Social Security payments — can’t maintain their standard of living. Plainly and simply, the Index shows that their income can’t keep up with their expenses, and it explains why they increasingly have to turn to the government for entitlements to bail them out..."
http://www.chapwoodindex.com/
In other words, Obumbler's fascist, socialistic plan (backed by Soros and other such Oligarch ilk) is working to perfection ... soon Caitlyn will be the poster child for SNAP sign-up on reality TeeVee .... "Come on America ... it's so easy every man/woman can do it!"
And he should know ...
Arent those two mutually exclusive?
Great news! I thought the prices of nearly everything I buy/use were rising, but fortunately we have these federal statistics that show me I was hallucinating. Anyone seen my XanaxTM? I usually keep it between my ProzacTM and my....
The tried and true of days past, the old " summer driving season " scam. Funny the last time gas was $60 a barrel I was paying under $2 bucks...Rape and pillage is all these statists no how to do.
All the while wrapping themselves around a flag and calling it " Democracy " far from it.
food prices
rent prices
movie prices
taxes
healthcare prices
ballgame admission prices
airline ticket prices
hotel room prices
toll roads, bridges
stock prices
bond prices
with the exception of gasoline (which has retraced from $5 to $3 a gallon here on the east coast but up from $1 where it had been for the longest time, consistantly - still represents an increase of 300% over a 20 year period) PLEASE tell me almighty fed exactly what im not paying all-time highs for?
Clearly "core CPI" includes none of those, only iPads, flat-screens, and silver
I am thinking that ZH should ignore (not publish) government generated stats and go to more credible sources.
The way to handle this is to establish a Universal, or call it International CPI number, one where the same method to calculate is the exact same for ALL Nations, and report that Number along with the number the nation chooses to calculate.
This should be done not only for CPI, but also for all major reports, i.e., Unemployment
When you look at official CPI statistics, do not forget the official versus real inflation for 2014:
Chapwood Index shows real inflation in US.
In 2014, it was 9.7% - 1212% of official US inflation (0.8%)
http://www.chapwoodindex.com/
Core inflation is under control. Great! Everything that matters to me: food, health care, utilities, has gone up considerably. How convenient that the cpi used to calculate core inflation does not include these items. That way the masters can say how rosy life is for the slaves.
Why does anyone even look at CPI? Its been so butchered over the last few decades that it is meaningless as a measure of prices.
I get lots of food for free in the dumpsters behind McDonalds.
McDonalds? Dude the food in the dumpster at Panera Bread is healthier for you.
Some people / snark /
Print like the Jewish whore you are ChairJew Yelller!
Hell yeah!
I walk into a store to buy some grouud beef. It's $5.99. I look at the organic ground beef. It's 8.49 a pound.
I settle for Cheetos that are Buy 1 get 1 free..
I suffered from no inflation at all...
But I am starting to turn a bit orange.
Sounds like you need to take a no money down car loan for something nice and then use that as collateral for a loan. Sweetness and steak for you! Unicorns and puppies all around!
https://www.titlemax.com/title-loans/
These numbers are made up, and everyone knows it. Stocks, rents/housing, healthcare, most food items, school tuitions and part time jobs at all time high. The only things that are not at all time highs are gas, electronics, and interest rates and household incomes.
Its all made up. Its all propaganda and we all know it, and can we please stop calling teleprompter readers journalists. Real inflation numbers and journalism died 35 years ago.
= Fed justification for many more years of rates to stay at or near zero to push housing costs and stock prices out of reach of everyone but the super wealthy.
You can hardly notice the extra dollar you have to pay for that $34 steak dinner in a posh NYC restaurant!
Sure, I doubt someone like Hillary Clinton even knows what a gallon of gas costs.
Everyone knows that she uses the blood of infants to power her vehicles anyway.
Orwell is about to be used as much as Lehman in article titles.
"LehmanTM"
There, fixed it for you.
Cool, now I know what COLA I will be getting at work. I guess all of the higher prices I am paying for what I consider core items (food, utilities, clothing, fuel) are made up in my head. Yeah, fuel did go down for about a minute, but has gone back up 30% from its' low here in Reno, NV. I guess there is no CPI since the 75" flatscreeen, iPad, etc. that all of the SNAP'ers and Section 8'ers conisder core has dropped in price since last year.
At least my rent went down, oh, but wait, that is becuase I moved into a smaller place. I have to make my own core savings since everything the government spews is bullshit.
bread that was $2/loaf at Christmas is now $3.
burgers at the local fast food place that were 2/$5 then are now 2/$6, and the minion behind the counter said they expected the price to keep rising.
on the upside, minimum wages here in Lost Angels will be rising shortly, and reach $15/hour in a year or two, so i'll be able to buy moar stuff, since there is no inflation...
#Winning!