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UK Government Study Finds: If Nothing Is Done, Expect Civilizations' Collapse By 2040
Authored by Nafeez Ahmed via Medium.com,
New scientific models supported by the British government’s Foreign Office show that if we don’t change course, in less than three decades industrial civilisation will essentially collapse due to catastrophic food shortages, triggered by a combination of climate change, water scarcity, energy crisis, and political instability.
Before you panic, the good news is that the scientists behind the model don’t believe it’s predictive. The model does not account for the reality that people will react to escalating crises by changing behavior and policies.
But even so, it’s a sobering wake-up call, which shows that business-as-usual guarantees the end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it: our current way of life is not sustainable.
The new models are being developed at Anglia Ruskin University’s Global Sustainability Institute (GSI), through a project called the ‘Global Resource Observatory’ (GRO).
The GRO is chiefly funded by the Dawe Charitable Trust, but its partners include the British government’s Foreign & Commonwealth Office (FCO); British bank, Lloyds of London; the Aldersgate Group, the environment coalition of leaders from business, politics and civil society; the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries; Africa Development Bank, Asian Development Bank, and the University of Wisconsin.
Disruption risk
This week, Lloyds released a report for the insurance industry assessing the risk of a near-term “acute disruption to the global food supply.” Research for the project was led by Anglia Ruskin University’s GSI, and based on its GRO modelling initiative.
The report explores the scenario of a near-term global food supply disruption, considered plausible on the basis of past events, especially in relation to future climate trends. The global food system, the authors find, is “under chronic pressure to meet an ever-rising demand, and its vulnerability to acute disruptions is compounded by factors such as climate change, water stress, ongoing globalisation and heightening political instability.”
Three steps from crisis
Lloyd’s scenario analysis shows that food production across the planet could be significantly undermined due to a combination of just three catastrophic weather events, leading to shortfalls in the production of staple crops, and ensuing price spikes.
In the scenario, which is “set in the near future,” wheat, maize and soybean prices “increase to quadruple the levels seen around 2000,” while rice prices increase by 500%. This leads to rocketing stock prices for agricultural commodities, agricultural chemicals and agriculture engineering supply chains:
“Food riots break out in urban areas across the Middle East, North Africa and Latin America. The euro weakens and the main European stock markets lose 10% of their value; US stock markets follow and lose 5% of their value.”
The scenario analysis demonstrates that a key outcome of any such systemic shock to the global food supply?—?apart from “negative humanitarian consequences and major financial losses worldwide”?—?would be geopolitical mayhem as well as escalating terrorism and civil unrest.
The purpose of exploring such scenarios is to prepare insurers for possibilities that are now more likely than previously assumed. The Lloyd’s report points out:
“What is striking about the scenario is that the probability of occurrence is estimated as significantly higher than the benchmark return period of 1:200 years applied for assessing insurers’ ability to pay claims against extreme events.”
That leading insurance companies are now attempting to factor in potential losses from such crises is a major step forward in pushing the financial sector to recognise the dark-side of the current system of fossil fuel dependence.
The report concludes:
“A global production shock of the kind set out in this scenario would be expected to generate major economic and political impacts that could affect clients across a very wide spectrum of insurance classes.”
It would have “major consequences for companies’ investment income,” with the potential to “generate losses that span many years.” It would also result in political instabilities that take “decades to resolve” while imposing “greater restrictions on international business.”
Governments want answers
The scenario was developed for Lloyds by the Anglia Ruskin University team with the British Foreign Office’s UK/US Task Force on Resilience of the Global Food Supply Chain to Extreme Events.
The Foreign Office’s food resilience Task Force began to come together late last year. An FCO document from February 2015 for a Task Force workshop throws light on its rationale, direction, and participants.
“The taskforce is looking at plausible worst case scenarios of disruption to the global agri-food system, caused by extreme weather events,” the document explains. Taskforce projects aim to “improve understanding of how changing extreme weather events (severity, type, frequency, geographical impact) may impact on global food security” and to “identify how market and policy responses may exacerbate or ameliorate these effects.”
Of particular concern to the FCO’s taskforce is to determine “how large shocks in agricultural production could occur (e.g. floods, droughts, wind storms),” how these would translate into “crop reductions,” and “how society responds to high food prices or limited local availability.”
Although coordinated by the FCO, other British government-backed programmes are involved, chiefly, the Global Food Security Programme and UK Science & Innovation Network, together representing the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA); the Department of Health; the Department for International Development (DFID); the Government Office for Science; the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills; and the Scottish and Welsh governments.
On the US side, government involvement was limited to the Center for Integrated Modeling of Sustainable Agriculture and Nutrition Security (CIMSANS), which is supported by the US State Department, and USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network.
Another participant was the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), whose membership includes the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Bank, the European Commission, the Asian Development Bank, and the African Development Bank, among many others.
Collapse
I had been in touch with the Anglia Ruskin GSI team for a while, having previously reported on some of their work?—?and this month joined GSI as a visiting research fellow.
Earlier this year, I attended an invite-only GRO steering committee meeting of scientists, technologists, financiers, economists, and academics, where GSI’s Director, Dr. Aled Jones, delivered a detailed presentation on the modelling work done so far, what it implied, and where it was leading.
Dr. Jones was previously Deputy Director of the Programme for Sustainability Leadership at the University Cambridge, where he was Director of the British government’s flagship Chevening Fellowships Economics of Climate Change Programme, supported by the UK Foreign Office to deliver the FCO’s Strategic Framework. Jones also chairs a working group of the UK government’s Department for Energy and Climate Change’s Capital Markets Climate Initiative (CMCI).
Jones’ GRO initiative has received direct funding from the Foreign Office to develop its modelling capacity, and he is a co-leader of the FCO Task Force’s working group on ‘Impacts’, where he and his team apply the GRO models to assess the way crop reductions would affect global food security.
GRO is developing two types of model: an Agent-Based Model to explore short-term scenarios of policy decisions by simulating social-economical-environmental systems; and a System Dynamics Model capable of providing projections for the next 5 years based on modelling the complex interconnections between finite resources, planetary carrying capacity, and the human economy.
“The financial and economic system is exposed to catastrophic short-term risks that the system cannot address in its current form,” Dr. Jones told us.
He described GRO’s use of the Agent-Based Model to capture and simulate the multiple factors that led to the 2011 Arab Spring events.
By successfully modeling the “impact of climate-induced drought on crop failures and the ensuing impact on food prices,” he said, the model can then be recalibrated to “experiment with different scenarios.”
“We ran the model forward to the year 2040, along a business-as-usual trajectory based on ‘do-nothing’ trends?—?that is, without any feedback loops that would change the underlying trend. The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption.”
Another steering committee member raised their hand: “So is this going to happen? Is this a forecast?”
“No,” said Jones. “This scenario is based on simply running the model forward. The model is a short-term model. It’s not designed to run this long, as in the real world, trends are always likely to change, whether for better or worse.”
“Okay, but what you’re saying is that if there is no change in current trends, then this is the outcome?” continued the questioner.
Jones nodded with a half-smile. “Yes,” he said quietly.
In other words, simply running the Agent-Based Model forward cannot generate a reliable forecast of the future. For instance, no one anticipated the pace at which solar and wind energy would become cost-competitive with fossil fuels. And the fact that governments and insurers are now beginning to scope such risks, and explore ways of responding, shows how growing awareness of the risks has the potential to trigger change.
Whether that change is big enough to avoid or mitigate the worst is another question. Either way, the model does prove in no uncertain terms that present-day policies are utterly bankrupt.
Limits to growth
GRO’s System Dynamics Model takes a different approach, building on the ‘World3’ model developed by scientists at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), which famously forecast that humankind faced impending “limits to growth” due to environmental and resource constraints.
In popular consciousness, the ‘limits to growth’ forecasts were wrong. But recent studies, including one by the Australian government’s scientific research agency CSIRO, confirm that most of its predictions were startlingly prescient.
Dr. Jones and his team at Anglia Ruskin University have taken this confirmation several steps further, not only by testing the model against the real world, but by recalibrating it internally using new and updated data.
“World3 was a very good, robust system,” he told us. “Some assumptions were incorrect and misparameterised?—?for instance, life expectancy is smaller than assumed, and industrial and service outputs are larger than assumed. And the model was missing some shock dynamics and feedback loops.”
The same questioner put his hand up and asked, “Does this mean the original model and its predictions are flawed?”
“I would say the model was largely correct,” said Jones. “It was right enough to give a fairly accurate picture of future limits to growth. But there are some incorrect parameters and gaps.”
The System Dynamics Model, Jones explained, is designed to overcome the limitations of World3 by recalibrating the incorrect parameters, adding new parameters where necessary, and inputting fresh data. There are now roughly 2,000 parameters in the model, drawing on a database of key indicators on resources and social measures for 212 countries, from 1995 until today.
Jones’ affirmation of the general accuracy of the limits to growth model was an obvious surprise to some in the room.
The original model forecasted global ecological and economic collapse by around the middle of the 21st century, due to the convergence of climate change, food and water scarcity, and the depletion of cheap fossil fuels?—?which chimes with both the GRO’s models.
Last year, Dr. Graham Turner updated his CSIRO research at the University of Melbourne, concluding that:
“… the general onset of collapse first appears at about 2015 when per capita industrial output begins a sharp decline. Given this imminent timing, a further issue this paper raises is whether the current economic difficulties of the global financial crisis are potentially related to mechanisms of breakdown in the Limits to Growth BAU [business-as-usual] scenario.”
For the first time, then, we know that in private, British and US government agencies are taking seriously longstanding scientific data showing that a business-as-usual trajectory will likely lead to civilisational collapse within a few decades?—?generating multiple near-term global disruptions along the way.
The question that remains is: what we are going to do about it?
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Nah.
Intervention by extraterrestrials by 2030.
Fool has a model. Enough said.
Nibiru. Don't worry, be happy. Nuffin' we can do about it.
Always glad to hand over more freedoms to directionless governmental inefficiency and taxes in order to save myself from that which is either not gonna happen or cannot be changed in any event
Yeah! Let's put Band-Aids over more cancerous tumors, treat the symptoms, not the disease
Let's do a guys End of Days out, Kaiser
"UK Government Study Finds: If Nothing Is Done, Expect Civilizations' Collapse By 2040"
GOD says the only thing that has to be done to prevent this is to END the UK.
The king, queen, prince, princess, and the little royal babies. Their eternal domain will be with my nemesis.
GOD has spoken!
WRONG!
It'll be the bloody Daleks who do us in!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rSNkSAa1eG4
UK gov needs to read this: http://craftsmanship.net/drought-fighters/
We can produce multiples of the current food production with sustainable methods. The current petrochemical factory farms don't work.
The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.HL Menkin
2040 or 20:40?
Limits to growth = "Everything government touches turns to crap." - Ringo Starr
Government is a gigantic fucking waste of everything.
Ah, the old government is totaly bad thesis. Well I''ve got the perfect soloution for you and your family, and don't forget the kids too! Somalia, Yemen, Burkina, Southern Ethiopia. No governments, no taxes! YIPEE. A veritable paradise. But don't forget to pack your AK47's and 50cal machiners. Plus a truck load of ammo and some personal flak jackets. Off you go. Have a nice life.
I feel sorry for true believers like you.
Foreign governments, yes, your precious government, have been fucking around in Somalia for decades. And to begin with, Africa is hardly civilized anyway.
It's useless idiot government lovers like yourself that are behind most of the evil in the world. You and your ilk should be proud with all the billions of gallons of blood on your hands. Fucking killers.
Yes, if a handful of Global Corporations continue to have their way, the World is fucked. Then again, we could always grow our own gardens and run our own lives and communities locally without Central Planning Overlords, instead.
Except the criminal special interest controlled government next door would "Genghis Kahn" you. Can't win for losing, eh?
catastrophic food shortages, triggered by a combination of climate change, water scarcity, energy crisis, and political instability
Studies from the same government who caused all the problems in the first place.
"In 1847 the London Communist League (Karl Marx and Frederick Engels) used Hegel's theory of the dialectic to back up their economic theory of communism. Now, in the 21st century, Hegelian-Marxist thinking affects our entire social and political structure. The Hegelian dialectic is the framework for guiding our thoughts and actions into conflicts that lead us to a predetermined solution. If we do not understand how the Hegelian dialectic shapes our perceptions of the world, then we do not know how we are helping to implement the vision. When we remain locked into dialectical thinking, we cannot see out of the box"
In other words we are all fucked
The author is wrong. What's unsustainable is unlimited migration of illiterate 3rd worlds into countries such as the UK and the US.
It also doesn't help that you constantly allow people of a certain faith to migrate to your country people whose total intent is to take the whole world back to the 9th century all the while deluding yourself into thinking that these people can be convinced to accept liberalism as it is bandied about in today's society.
What's unsustainable is unlimited U.S illiterate 3rd consanguineous generation not able to place india, ukraine, and 95% of the world on a map.
fixed it for ya :)
Thanks.
And, we have our own morons produced locally unable to do what you've mentioned.
So why do we need to import millions more of them?
What's the purpose other than to vote Democrat.
Once TPP becomes reality and even more US jobs are outsourced overseas or positions that do stay are insourced with foreign labor on visas, why do we need more 3rd world immigrants to fill up the slums.
Topsoil isn't mentioned, but it is being destroyed quickly all over the world. The once dark carbon-rich soil of the Midwest looks like beach sand. These nutrient-free soils dry out quickly and need more rain than properly managed soil.
But the bottom line is there are just too many fucking people. If the libs have their way and 100 million Central Americans and Muslims are allowed into the US, there will be food shortages here.
I think you'll have more to worry about than just food shortages. You're moving people with diametrically opposing philosophies and politics together into one sandbox and asking them all to play nice with each other.
And the white liberals will find themselves on the rude end of the stick once their populations swell and they vote in their own La Raza's or Faith.
America will be split up into 6-9 starving ethnic states by then.
"You're moving people with diametrically opposing philosophies and politics together into one sandbox and asking them all to play nice with each other."
What do think happened about 10,000 years ago when disparate conquered forager tribes started being incorporated into growing towns?
Of course government viewed that as a reason for more control.
You put a good point.
Humus = soil surface.
Varies between 30 and 50 centimeters, depending on the region.
Unless Ukraine, this soil has great depth in some places reaches several meters.
It's called "Tchernosolo" already talking about exporting to other EU countries.
If you do that Ukraine will become a big pond ...
:-)
Romania used to have that, but now there are parts that are sandy desert like, I think Ukraine had that stripped off a lot too, like Romania was a bread basket for Britain for almost a century. And then for the soviet union etc...
BTW Wasn't that shit radioactive anyway, I am amazed that this economic basketcase is allowed to still run nuclear power plants, did we not learn anything ?
Topsoil is basically saturated with RoundUp Ready. You can imagine the biology of RoundUp Ready saturated soil, can't you?
All to the "feed the children" that the ultimate owners of Monsanto, the Debt-Money Monopoly, are starving to death via their fraudulent debt-money system of worldwide impoverishment.
Behold, THE DEBT STAR!
It is like a Death Star with a neutron bomb function upgrade.
We have food shortages now. When Californians migrate out en masse to other parts of the country, the strain on the already decaying infrastructure will hasten.
I can forsee areas of California forcibly evacuated and the farms given sole priority for water.
We do have too many people, like 4-5 billion too many. We live in a petri dish and we have reach peak population sustainability. In about 3-4 ears will come the mass die-off. This article didn't mention several other factors but that is irrelevant. We are past the point of no return.
If you honestly believe the world to be overpopulated you will act upon this by immediatly exterminating your own family.
Until then, youre just another mouth to feed.
Screw you. We're talking Third World, versus First World. If you haven't taken note that the Brown People and the Muslims are reproducing at record rates, then you are a fool. The White Population for the most part is actually negative. What hurts BigWorldOligarchyCorp,is that their model is built on endless growth of cheap, exploitable labor, instead of sustainment.
Lucky for us we have conservatives who really have done an awesome job of taking care of the planet. I'm mean the self policing corporations of the world have done nothing to harm anything.
Perhaps the intent of those is not the assimilation into society and the embracing of liberalism but the annihilation of the competition for food and resources. In the long term, if this study is to have any validity, the elite may view this as a prudent step. The challenge is positioning oneself well in the game such as this.
Miffed
Make 'em citizens, use them to repeal the 2nd Amendment, then kill 'em all.
'Karl Rove: Only Way To Stop The Violence Is To Repeal Second Amendment'http://dailycaller.com/2015/06/21/karl-rove-only-way-to-stop-the-violenc...
'Obama Admin. Partners With Boston, Encouraging More Immigrants To Become Citizens'http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/06/17/obama-admin-partners-...
'Masonic truck transports FEMA coffins in Wisconsin'http://fellowshipoftheminds.com/2015/01/27/masonic-truck-transports-fema...
Look up Hugelkultur. It is a better way of controlling moisture and slowly releasing composted material since it does not create the toxicity problem. It is also a deeper method of the agro-forestry he describes.
One-Straw Revolution is also very interesting. A big problem with transplanting is that plants grow relative to the depth at which they are introduced into the soil. So all these oil-based containers are limiting potential growth of the plants to begin with, and then you have to shock the plants when you transplant them.
When you think about it, what did European people do for centuries? You had to feed your animals and keep warm apart from getting food. This meant gathering hay and wood. Any extra and waste material can be used for the beds. The hay prevents weeds and grass from taking over, while allowing beneficial weeds to still grow along with the plants. And the excess wood, or rotting fenceposts, could be used as compost and flood/drought prevention.
This was common sense to our ancestors, and agribusinesses ruined it with their model of negative energy output.
www.richsoil.com
www.permies.com
Yep. It's scaremongering for Agenda 21, which the Commiepope is pushing big-time now.
Climate change? Natural and not a problem. Energy? Abundant if we turn to thorium salt nuclear and maybe geothermal. Drought? Water is recyclable, and with abundant energy seawater can be desalinated (not practical now). Fix those three, the fourth takes care of itself.
The royal family will bug out to nuclear free New Zealand in the worst case scenario. You think you have a good bug out location? The royals have all of New Zealand.
Ever read Nevil Shute's "On the Beach". Even moving to New Zioland can't save them in worst case scenario.
They can have it. New Zealand is suffering from the same plague of locusts currently destroying the UK and the US.
Of course if you hear in the news that the Queen Mum will be visiting New Zealand in the future you'll know the Shit is about to Hit The Fan.
Going to exhume her just for the trip ?
Sure will be a sign of something.
OK, I knew you'd catch me on that, and yes I know that was her mother.
So, what do they affectionately call Her Royal Highness?
Queen Reptilian?
Not that any of the vermin politicians in the US are any better.
I called her M'am on the occaisions I met her.
Twice formally at Twickenham, and once at Burleigh, where she was just a worried mum
watching Anne doing the cross country course.I was the worried fiance, watching my to be wife
do the same,so we commiserated and connected for half an hour.Very informal/friendly competitive as both
were riding for the same olympic team place.
Seemed human enough at the time, but who knows.I'm sure she later had Dianna offed.
Those corgis are a fucking menace though.
"The royal family will bug out to nuclear free New Zealand..."
There is no nuclear-free NZ. Nor anywhere else bordering the Pacific Ocean. The fish are dying from Alaska to southern Chile, and from Russia south to Antartica. The entire Pacific Ocean is now radioactive, and getting worse by hundreds of thousands of tons of lethal radioactive water washing over the still fissioning cores and draining into the ocean daily.
There is no longer anywhere safe to run. It is only percentages of radaition contamination that separate localities worldwide now. And those percentages are increasing by the minute, and will continue to rise for a billion years, with dozens more NPP's and Spent Fuel Pools to burn and explode in the next few years.
The Royal Child Buggers will go underground when the fighting starts, never to come out, and they will die down there with the plutonium that is already in their lungs.
The Queen and her family will most likely die from uranium products from her own mines. Ironic, yet fitting.
All this praying to Lucifer has created 'Hell On Earth' - a radioactive Hell.
May God have mercy on the souls of the innocent.
I'm in.
Got one for you, Swami. Driving in to have lunch with eldest daughter, when what to my wandering eyes do appear, but a well placed small business advert, to wit:
QUALITY TATTOOS
WEEKEND SPECIAL: ALL PIERCINGS $30.00(above the waist)
The longer you think about that, the worse it gets.
Ah, but that means I can still get my Karl Rove is Jesus tattoo.
(He now wants to repeal the 2nd amendment ... ah the Kabuki Theater of it all, One Party, Indivisible with Psycho Panderings for All)
http://dailycaller.com/2015/06/21/karl-rove-only-way-to-stop-the-violenc...
Have a wonderful meal. Happy Father's Day. My best wishes to you and yours.
Its beginning to look like the Republican Party is finally coming out the closet with plans to join sides with Democrats to finally kill off the final remants of a Constitutional Republic.
After supporting Obama on the TPP and fast track what else can we call them except the Traitors Party.
The goal is to be in control, not to please the dupes.
An unarmed population is easier to control.
Please, please explain what firepower the population has that they can use to reclaim their country.
But, as they say, take the guns away and only criminals will have the guns. And, I'm not talking about street hoodlums I'm talking about he criminals that run the country.
After being disarmed, the people will still have their brains.
For most, that means they will be reduced to shooting blanks.
A most unfortunate truth.
Repubs and Dems are two factions of the Statist Party.
I can't believe that this even needs to be stated at this point - but apparently it does. Keep up the good work.
Descendants of the settlement people and descendants of the hunter-gatherers are two factions of the Alpha Male Social Hierarchy Party
" nibiru "
fucktard.....
The turds will hit the fan long before then. The wonderful leaders in charge engineered a never ending war by staging the 911 terorist attack that was really plain old murder which was covered up by our own government. Apparantly no other government is willing to step up and call the US out. Our own people have called our government out to no avail.
If you think we live in the same old US of A of 90's and before, you would be wrong. It was one thing to assasinate JFK, one man. It is completely another to assisinate 3k at the murder site and another 11-12k and counting US Soldiers along with around 5-600kcounting of people in other countries along with the allied Soldiers.
The turds have been hitting the fan for a while, but somehow I believe that the sociopaths in charge have not yet achieved whatever madness they intend for the world yet. There is not going to be another 10 years. I am surprised every day that I wake up and I can go outside like "normal" and live a "normal" life. Every day - for real!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nmj6t51Wz8
Any of you who feel the same - you are my brother in truth. Any of you who deny any of this, you indeed are part of the problem, there is blood on all of our hands, but you keep your hands in the pool of blood and you are ok with that.
Speaking of 911, has everyone seen the prediction of it in the MARCH 2001 pilot episode of "The lone gunman" (offshoot of the X-Files). Still blows my mind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GCsTf-fKVo
What was it they were saying about the corn in the X-Files movie...lol
Obama was born and hatched (2006) and put in the position he's in today for one thing: TPP and TTP. OK, two things.
Nonsense
These guys are traveling in mayonnaise.
Anyone with half a brain and a bit of geography knowledge knows that Europe, North Africa, Japan and some other places do not produce itself sufficient to feed its population.
Put Latin America as likely to "starve" is the final straw!
We go to a practical example, the United Kingdom, during IIWW with blocking by German submarines, the British almost starved.
Another thing, 2040 is very far, I believe that this scenario could occur in 2016/17 once the economy sink.
If there is a IIIWW, still I do not believe that Latin America goes hungry, even in urban areas.
Since most mordern farming is heavily dependent upon oil and natural gas not only to fuel the tractors but to create the fertilizer unless those countries can supply their own oil and gas they're up shit creek like everyone else.
Since Brazil uses sugar cane to produce ethanol its quite feasible they could manage to survive if the fuel is only used to produce food and distribute it throughout the country.
But, most of Latin America is ruled by Reptilians just like this country and they won't give a fuck about the little people anymore than the criminials in D.C. care about their fellow countrymen.
There is little doubt that many folks could survive quite happily in a post-industrial civilization - it's more that our industrialized global economy's days are numbers - and probably quite a few millions/billions will perish right along with it.
Venezuela is OPEC, Argentina a few years ago was self-sufficient in oil, Brazil produces oil and there is much to be explored on the continental shelf, Bolivia produces gas.
There is deficiency in coal.
If you think Brazil is just alcohol from cane sugar, old man, you're wrong ...
"We go to a practical example, the United Kingdom, during IIWW with blocking by German submarines, the British almost starved."
Umm, bad example. Maybe the UK diverted, oh say, half their productivity to the war effort. A half-million soldier boys could've grown a lot of crops.
Besides that, food is heading towards being factory grown and that will extend to homes shortly after that.
UK .gov... nuff said.
logical fallacy . . . nuff said.
Go to Brixton, or Bradford, and you'll find civilization already collapsed some time ago.
Oh wait, this is about climate change.........
"New scientific study confirms: U.K. society to collapse into anarchy and tribal violence due to mass immigration by 2040."
Yep.
It's pretty obvious that the less advanced societies destroy their conquerers through social and mental contamination.
Sweet revenge, I guess.
"New scientific models supported by the British government’s Foreign Office show that...."
Stopped reading right there. Two words: BULL and SHIT.
Government IS the problem. Time to re-think and get rid of career politicians.
And career scientists that derive their funding from career politicians.
Fucking Tech Tools and their "models". Must be runnin' out of AGW grants.
This is part of the fluffing scare-campaign for their little AGW Paris meeting, later this year.
Hobgoblins for all!
This can all be sorted by importing more muslims.
Also, white people need to stop having children. Entirely. 1 or 2 is still too many. In fact, you have a duty to interbreed with some random uneducated shitskin fresh off a boat. Hollande says so. All white couples should be arrested for racism. Execute the male and assign the female to a new non-white mate.
Solution. Give every family half an acre of land and let them sink or swim.
Where?
Mojave Desert would cull the herd...
Stupid click bait ABC Tylers, respectively...
"The model does not account for the reality that people will react to escalating crises by changing behavior and policies".
Ah, the ghost of Malthus again raises his ugly head. We've been hearing this stuff for 200 years and it has only gotten better. Paul Ehrlich wrote The Population Bomb in 1968 and predicted that India would have massive starvation in the 1970s and 1980s--dead wrong. He also said, "I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000." According to the data bases, the world has gotten wealthier, healthier, and lives longer. It will continue as long as free markets, capital formation, entrepreneurship, and technology are allowed to function.
The limits to growth model, despite being made in 1972, is still quite accurate 40+ years later. Scarily accurate, actually. To make the comparison to Malthus is moronic. Malthus was wrong. The limits to growth model has not yet been proven wrong. Remove your head from your ass before your next post.
Oh really? So what's the date that the model says we all wake up and there's no more food, oil, or water?
Even this bullshit government report at least has the decency to note that people adapt.
Only a complete simpleton thinks we won't adapt to changing conditions.
read the fuckin' paper 1st, comment afterwards.
It's simply a projection of when we'll probably run out of various things and it runs too close to reality for anyone's comfort. Way too close.
or keep telling yourself that it's all a conspiracy. In the mean time, start digging in your backyard; maybe you'll find some oil...
You won't have far to dig if you a septic tank.
Yep, that's right, they're deriving oil from human waste.
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2006/nov/29/energy.ethicalliving
What will they think of next? Making hamburgers from poo?
http://inhabitat.com/poop-burger-japanese-researcher-creates-artificial-...
And, who knows what they'll think of next? Maybe...................
Soylent Green is people!
How do we adapt to complete saturation of our food and water with plutonium and enriched uranium?
The produce from California is being watered with fracking wastewater, and the mid-West is saturated with Fukushima radiation.
The US won't last till 2040.
It will continue as long as free markets, capital formation, entrepreneurship, and technology are allowed to function.
When was the last time they were allowed to function?
The wild card in this is us. Will we set things to right. Prolly not. Buy maybe if bla bla bla.
Fret not, the IPCC will save us.
Future climate trends? More global warming nonsense even though the 2 tracking sytems without massaged data show no warming for 18 years and 10 years respectively in the World and the US.
"UK Government Study Finds: If Nothing Is Done, Expect Civilizations' Collapse By 2040"
"If Nothing Isn't Done About Government and Zion, Expect Civilization to be on the Verge of Collapse in 2015"
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..
Well September, 2015, does happen by 2040, doesn't it?
It is far too late.
I expect that by "civilisation collapse" they just mean "government collapse".
Which is actually "civilisation birth".
And, that University is the same one as gave us the Climategate scandal of 2009, if memory serves ... so, we already know it's a den of frauds and liars.
Before you panic, the good news is that the scientists behind the model believe it wont affect the jews
Feeble attempt to introduce the GMO Mutants.
thats what wars are for, decimate some people to extend the period to 2040 + x
UK also sold all of their gold at $300 per ounce.
This study can be disregarded.
Well, the current UK government are being generous with their 30 years prediction. HRH Tony Blair stood up in about 2004 or whenever and said "we have 10 years to save the planet", thereby justifying the UN-IPCC to be inaugurated at great cost and higher taxes.
I remember reading yet another article over a year ago about the UK's best climate predictive model had the same accuracy as a coin flip. The article was quickly pulled.
Here's another example...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2419557/Climate-change-models-ac...
Predictions on global warming trends may not be as accurate as at first their studies suggest.
A new study in the journal Nature Climate Change looked at 117 climate predictions made in the 1990's to the actual amount of warming.
Out of 117 predictions, only three were accurate. The other 114 overestimated the amount by which the Earth's temperature rose.
The Nature Climate Change file has been pulled as well. But it was hosted at University of Edinburgh so what else did you expect?"New scientific models supported by the British government’s Foreign Office show that if we don’t change course, in less than three decades industrial civilisation will essentially collapse due to catastrophic food shortages, triggered by a combination of climate change, water scarcity, energy crisis, and political instability."
people have been predicting this scenario for the UK for quite awhile now. lol
it's as plain as the nose on your face and you don't need a frigging computer to tell you that.
asshats
"Another participant was the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), whose membership includes the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the World Bank, the European Commission, the Asian Development Bank, and the African Development Bank, among many others."
One thing's for sure, whatever conclusion that rogue's gallery comes to is going to be very bad for those of us not in the club.
"Life after white people." Food riots in Africa, the Middle East, and "Latin America?" Well we're bringing African, Middle Eastern, and Latin American people into white nations by the tens of millions to ensure that those riots don't stay isolated.
Of course Western civilization will collapse in the absence of Western (European) people.
If London keeps doing business by unlimited re-hypothecating (remember The London Whale) and war mongering in other areas, their long enough timeline will reach zero before the rest of us.
Here's a refresher:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/full-report-on-london-whale-incident-sheds-m...
All of this is possible, but not for the reason/s stated. www.enenews.com - Fukushima's radiation will fufill this prediction with no help from any other disasters...
People just don't get it...
Take out the Anglozionazi element and run the model again... You'll find that it's perfectly sustainable and then some.
Many of these issues would resolve themselves with private price and production changes.
Unfortuately governments will inject themselves and first and seek to increase their power before even addressing the food problem.
The problem of a failing dollar could also magnify shortages. As long as the dollar can call in goods from all over the world without sending product back to the rest of the world we will see shortages even among producers.
Yes it will end badly.
If "global warming" were not a pile of bull crap, they would be building thorium power plants like there is no tomorrow (pun intended). If for no other reason than to protect their own sacred asses.
The environmentalist movement is just one prong of the anti-white depopulation agenda/genocide campaign being waged world wide. If they were worried about overpopulation harming the environment they'd have 0 immigration from non-white nations into white nations where the immigrants immediately have double or triple the number of children as white women. They propagandize the girls in school starting at a very early age that they should have 0 children or 2 at the absolute most ("replacement", but 2 isn't even replacement level birth rates).
Crazy coincidence that the West is collapsing at the same time as all of its nations become majority non-white. Must be some racist conspiracy by white people to make non-whites look bad. Yep.
I dunno, but maybe we shouldn't be burning our fucking food for fuel for fake global warming? Or is it just me?
Well, on a macro level, it is an excellent example of central planning in action.
However, regardless of who is planning what, I have to attach the caveat that all the crops on my land are not "our" food, but "my" food. And if I want to distill them into fuel for my truck rather than feed "us", that's my business.
Another GIGO study -garbage in, garbage out.
And Dr. Malthus always laughs last.
Maybe Asia, Africa and Latin America should -you know *think* about feeding the people they already have before squirting out another billion mouths for the rest of the world to feed.
Trick question.
How do stop people from reproducing?
Answer: turn them all into homosexuals.
The British going at their population for 700+ years.
Year 1517, King Henry VIII: "God chose me, shut up, give me all your money and let me fuck my mistresses."
Year 2015, King Cameron: "Climate change...blahblablabla...Terrorism....give us all your money, your liberties and let me fuck my little boys"
Same people. Same narrative. Same result. Only a different year, without funny hats.
US stock markets will "lose 5% of their value."?
The Horror.
"The question that remains is: what we are going to do about it?" >> How about we stop making kids at all or at most 1 per family?
"The model does not account for the reality that people will react to escalating crises by changing behavior and policies". >> As if insects ever get it, ask anyone who want kids if this stop them.
The year 2054 will be the year the last remaining humans die on earth. Not far off, not sure on the modeling but its not something the dickheads running this shitshow can stop.
Stopped reading after UK Government Study...
On a more serious note the history of malfeasance and lies vomited by the UK government is astounding.
Kind of optimistic that we will make it to 2040. If people are hungry, then we will have WWIII before then, and that will reduce the surplus population. The great challenge besides food will be energy - 25 more years of fracking and Saudis pumping full blast might actually get us to lower global production.
Oh boy this sounds like if people don't surrender to the banksters the world is going to end. How convenient.
The banksters currently run the death controls that back up the debt controls. That is what has to change, and what will change ... most probably in the worst possible ways, as outlined in my comment below.
Those who do not understand that the existing systems are based on governments enforcing the banksters' frauds are being deliberately ignorant. However, those who do not think about how and why those are the facts are also being deliberately ignorant.
The typical patterns of opinions expressed on Zero Hedge are that more of those people already understand the superficial social facts regarding the banksters' systems of debt slavery backed by wars based on deceits, HOWEVER, those people never think through those issues on deeper levels, in order to face the ways that the only genuine alternatives to the banksters' controlling governments, to operate the actual ways that the debt controls are backed by the death controls, must be to change the death control systems.
It is NOT possible for human beings to not have any death control systems. The existing systems are due to the history of successful warfare based upon backing up deceits with destruction, morphing to become successful finance based on enforcing frauds. While way more of the people who read and comment on Zero Hedge articles superficially understand those facts than is common in the general population, still amongst the Zero Hedge crowd there is only a superficial understanding of those facts, which does not lead towards deeper understanding of how and why there must be some death control systems.
Therefore, as we run into the real limits of diminishing returns from the industrial revolution enabling the strip-mining of a fresh planet, the most probable ways that will play through are those ways that the ruling classes have actually been preparing for, namely, more genocidal wars, along with democidal martial law. HOWEVER, the only genuine alternatives to that would have to be to develop better death control systems, than those which the runaway criminal insanities of the banksters would do.
I do not recommend "surrendering to the banksters." What I recommend is understanding how and why they have ended up dominating the world, through their debt controls being backed by their death controls, which then follows through to develop better debt controls, backed by better death controls.
I find it quite bizarre how people who only superficially understand the ruling classes, or the banksters in particular, tend to blame them for creating the problems that the banksters merely provided expedient sets of solutions for, which they benefited from. Similarly, it is common to blame various intellectuals, who discovered and demonstrated the nature of the problems, in ways which are expressed in a fashion that the banksters approved of, and could take advantage of, as if those intellectuals had somehow created the chronic political problems which were always inherent in the nature of life.
In my view, the standing patterns on Zero Hedge are always relatively superficial understanding of the banksters, and therefore, always superficial "solutions" proposed on the basis of those superficial understanding of the problems.
Natural selection pressures always exist, as long as any life exists, and those were the reasons how and why the current systems of human artificial selection systems developed, as death controls backing up debt controls, that are overall what controls human civilizations through the application of the principles and methods of organized crime. HOWEVER, it is standard for the controlled opposition groups to only denounce the deceits of the ruling classes, but never promote better death control systems to replace those. That is the overall pattern that one observers in the context of comments and voting patterns under articles republished on Zero Hedge, which refer to the bigger picture problems. Those tend to superficially blame the banksters, and/or their intellectuals, for the existence of those problems, when they are only responsible for their own sets of superficial solutions that benefited them.
The chronic political problems inherent in the nature of life are perpetually present, and have to be perpetually resolved, in one way or another, sooner or later ... OBVIOUSLY, progress in physical science enabled the industrial revolution, which then enabled the strip-mining of a fresh planet, which process is running into real limits of diminishing returns, which is following the pattern of exponential growth overshooting. In that context, the rulings classes, such as the banksters, as the pyramidion people in the established social pyramid systems, have their agenda to continue to resolve those problems in the ways that they used to do. They have actually prepared for genocidal wars, along with democidal martial law, while they have not prepared in any other ways.
In order to resolve those real problems in other ways would require BOTH facing the facts regarding how the death control systems actually work now, AND how those death control systems could be done differently. What makes that appear politically impossible at the present time is the degree to which the actual death controls are being done through the maximum possible deceits, while the controlled opposition groups surrounding that have adapted to stay within that deceitful frame of reference regarding those death controls. Therefore, the actually existing systems are based on backing up lies with violence, as in the case of the banksters, since their frauds are enforced by governments which those banksters effectively control.
However, since the controlled opposition groups spout basically the same bullshit world view as was originally promoted by the biggest bullies, which are currently the banksters, our civilization continues to operate on the basis of as much deliberate ignorance as possible towards the ways that the human murder systems, as the most extreme forms of the death control systems, are actually controlling everything else, and must necessarily control everything else.
While it is quite correct, and similarly insightful, but only on a preliminary level, to recognize that: "How convenient ... if people don't surrender to the banksters the world is going to end." The next levels that should be recognized are that the world based on continuing to exponentially strip-mine a fresh planet "is going to end!"
Of course, that will not be the end of everything, but it may result in the human species committing collective suicide, as the only way that "we" could develop different death control systems, due to the degree to which our existing death control systems had become based upon runaway criminal insanities: MAD Money As Debt, backed by MAD Mutual Assured Destruction, or globalized electronic monkey money frauds, backed by the threat of force from apes with atomic bombs, are the EXISTING SYSTEMS, that were originally made and maintained by the banksters, but which are now spinning out of the control of anybody!
Since the banksters can not admit and address the real social facts, that everything they do is based upon enforcing frauds, and also, the vast majority of people also can not admit and address those facts either, the few that do admit and address those facts tend to only do so on the most superficial levels, without going into deeper analyses regarding how and why that is what actually exists.
Whenever there are articles republished on Zero Hedge that address some of the bigger picture problems, the majority of comments and voting patterns tend to switch over from being insightful to being stupid, because there tends to never been deeper penetrations through the levels of those problems. Tragically, that confirms the probabilities of predicting the worst possible futures. Overall, the banksters are almost totally getting away with doubling down on their enforced frauds, while the majority of people continue to act like incompetent political idiots inside of that context. HOWEVER, at the same time, practically no genuine opposition exists that is not controlled, and therefore, most of the apparent "opposition" to the banksters tend to blame the banksters for everything, and tend to dismiss everything that intellectuals who work within the banksters' systems have to say.
As long as human beings exist, then there are going to be some human death control systems. The essential problem we really face is how to operate the human murder systems after the development of weapons of mass destruction. At the present time, social habits have provided enough inertia, during the life time of those still alive today, for the paper frauds, backed by the force of gunpowder, to become electronic frauds, backed by atomic bombs.
However, that doubling down MADNESS has no way to imagine how it can more sanely cope with the foreseeable future of subsequent generations of human beings. At the present time, civilization is based upon runaway criminal insanities, in the form of electronic frauds, backed by atomic bombs, as the currently existing combined money/murder systems. Those systems ARE running into real limits of diminishing returns from being able to strip-mine a fresh planet, and those systems do NOT have any other ways to cope with that but by becoming even more criminally insane.
From that perspective it is NOT "convenient" that those intellectuals who discuss those problems from WITHIN taking for granted the banksters' bullshit world view, do NOT engage in deeper analyses of those problems. Extrapolations of the paths we are on now are that we would insanely overshoot, resulting in the greatest ever boom being followed by the greatest ever bust, with the results being that the vast majority of the human species will end up mass murdered in the most miserable ways. HOWEVER, to more thoroughly face those facts leads to deeper recognitions that the only real resolutions of the real problems would be to develop better death control systems.
The crucial issues are to what degree are the pyramidion people, within social pyramid systems based on being able to enforce frauds, going to continue to be able to do so, after the diminishing returns from strip-mining a fresh planet show up in starker and starker ways, which make deliberately ignoring those harder and harder to continue to do ???
On the basis of everything that I have so far learned, I see not the slightest shred of rational reasons to be optimistic or idealistic about that! Indeed, the degree to which so many of the comments published under an article like the one above are superficially snide only reinforces my conclusions that the human species has become too terminally sick and insane to recover from that degree of psychotic criminal insanity. Since civilization IS being controlled through the maximum possible frauds and deceits, and that includes both those in the established systems, as well as those in the controlled opposition, who are both operated by the best available professional liars and immaculate hypocrites, it appears politically impossible to develop better death control systems, despite that the existence of weapons of mass destruction appears to make that imperative, IF the human species is going to be able to adapt to survive having done that.
By and large, I find that practically nobody whose material is published on Zero Hedge addresses the deeper reasons for how and why money is necessarily measurement backed by murder. While the vast majority of people, at least as presented on the mass media, do not appear to have any understanding about that at all, even in the groups which are more educated and informed, such as in the Zero Hedge world, those mostly continue to promote bogus "solutions" to the problems which are able to blame everything on the banksters, and to dismiss everything that the banksters' intellectuals state.
Civilization IS currently based on strip-mining the planet at an exponential rate, while deliberately ignoring the resulting garbage and pollution as much as possible, because everything is being controlled by fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems. HOWEVER, that does NOT mean that there are no real accounting systems that are actually still working themselves through, underneath that, despite being deliberately ignored as much as possible by human beings who are living through their social systems based upon enforcing frauds.
The banksters made and maintained the established systems of enforced frauds, which are controlling civilization to behave in ways which have become runaway criminal insanities. However, the degree to which that has been almost totally triumphant is demonstrated by the degree to which there is almost nothing resisting that but controlled opposition groups, who continue stay within the same frame of reference with respect to regarding the death control systems in the most deceitful ways possible.
That is the double whammy dilemma that we are actually faced with as the banksters double down on their enforced frauds. They are running the actual death controls, that are backing up the actual debt controls, while they are mostly controlling their opposition, so that there are no genuine alternatives regarding any of those things being publicly presented in any significant ways. How doubly dismal that overall situation has become tends to be emphasized by the pattern of comments and votes posted in Zero Hedge under an article like the one above.
The only apparent, but totally bogus, "solutions" tend to be that instead of the banksters' systems of debt controls backed by death controls, there should not be any such systems, or none that human beings are aware of operating. Instead, of deeper scientific understanding of the problems, there tends to be an attitude that because much of the so-called "science" was developed and promoted inside of the oxymoronic scientific dictatorship, developed by the intellectuals working for the banksters, or within taking for granted the banksters' systems and overall world view, that therefore, there is NO science at all, but only bullshit promoted by those intellectuals, to advance the banksters' agenda.
While there is considerable merit in that view, it is NOT the whole story. The banksters, or the pyramidion people, or the ruling classes, did NOT create the chronic political problems inherent in the nature of life. They, and their intellectuals, ONLY developed expedient sets of solutions that benefited them. Any other genuinely realistic sets of solutions for perpetual political problems must be based upon different death control systems, with different human murder systems as the most extreme form of those. The IMPERATIVES are that weapons of mass destruction becoming trillions of times more powerful than anything which previously existed in human history means that successful warfare based on being able to back up deceits with destruction is no longer going to be successful.
However, since those death controls based on the maximum possible deceits were most socially successful for thousands of years, and almost everyone, for generation after generation, in both the ruling classes and those were ruled over, have adapted to believing in that, in the bizarre ways it takes to "believe" in death controls which are operated through the maximum possible deceits about themselves, at the present time it appears politically impossible to develop better death control systems, which practical impossibility tends to be underscored by the level of cynical stupidity which is all too commonly stated in the comments posted under Zero Hedge under articles like the one above!
Just locking this one down ... and thanks for the terrific example of your absurdist tactic of banal endless repetitions of, 'staying on message'.
AKA "7 pages only retards will read."
This week, Lloyds released a report for the insurance industry assessing the risk of a near-term “acute disruption to the global food supply.” Research for the project was led by Anglia Ruskin University’s GSI, and based on its GRO modelling initiative.
The report explores the scenario of a near-term global food supply disruption, considered plausible on the basis of past events, especially in relation to future climate trends. The global food system, the authors find, is “under chronic pressure to meet an ever-rising demand, and its vulnerability to acute disruptions is compounded by factors such as climate change, water stress, ongoing globalisation and heightening political instability.”
sounds like the insurance industry looking for an excuse to raise rates again
Too many of these articles pop up. It fits perfectly in the narrative of world government, world currency and holding on to power by the elite. And who is going to tell BRICS that they now have to hold on to economic growth "because we're all going to die? It is just all too easy, too obvious.
No way 2040, a different UK authority, Ian Brown says In The Year 2525
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5mAZQXVtMI
I would trust a rumored Zambian model run forward to 2040 before any UK forcaste published.
re UK Govt: "If Nothing Is Done..."
Beware of Brits Bearing "Solutions"....
(Psst.... It ain't known as Perfidious Albion for nothing ;)
tavistock institute
sis mi5 and 6
the private army of the queen the sas
chatham house
royal united services institute
the templars and masons of temple
jacob and edwynne rothschild and the 100s of thousands hasbara and sayanim of zion have been doing quiet enough for the last 50 odd years thanks very much
already.
how many more millions need to die for the empire of the city of london and israhell
Change the Payor and Payee -and the facts cited will change, the interpretations will change and the conclusions will change - which means the scientific methodology never changes
The world could go on a global diet for a few weeks and only good can come of it.
Otherwise, I expect by 2045 that food will be micro-sized into little packets of powder that you simply open and swallow, with your own saliva or some Ripple.
"Before you panic, the good news is that the scientists behind the model don’t believe it’s predictive. The model does not account for the reality that people will react to escalating crises by changing behavior and policies."
The scientistis behind the model don't believe its predictive. Full stop.
hopefully we will do nothing about it.
whaaaaaaat!?
You mean let a good predictive crisis go to waste?
How inconsiderate of you.
I wonder if Rahm Emanuel really enjoys being Mayor of the shit hole called Chicago?
Can you think of any problem on any scale, from microscopic to global, whose long-term solution is in any demonstrable way aided, assisted or advanced by having larger populations at the local level, the state level, the national level, or globally?
Albert Bartlett
Yawn, Club of Rome made the exact same predictions in 1970, to take place by 2000. They even did a computer analysis lol. See the book Limits to Growth.
Economists predictions make astrologers look good.
Scientific model my arse, this is common sense shit. Way to waste millions with these retard academics doing in politics & economics. Get a real fucking job.
Articles like the one above appear to provoke patterns of comments and votes on Zero Hedge that what I regard as some of the overall stupidest. It should be plainly obvious common sense, to anyone who thinks about it, that everything the currently established kind of civilization is doing is based on being able to strip-mine the planet's natural resources and turn those into garbage and pollution as fast as possible, AT AN EXPONENTIAL RATE!
There are no good reasons to expect anything which is better to happen, due to the fundamental FACT that civilization has always been based on backing up lies with violence, and therefore, the established systems are based on a core of organized crime, surrounded by controlled opposition groups, all of which have developed ironclad ways to deliberately ignore everything relevant regarding that FACT, due to thousands of years of social success, all based on systems of organized lies, operating robberies, which were ALL FUNDAMENTALLY BASED ON STRIP-MINING THE PLANET AT AN EXPONENTIAL RATE!
I think that the article above gets things backwards, when it presumes that the following is a "good thing:"
That is similar to those who like to quote the following from Margret Mead, as if that is a "good thing:"
Actually, the small group of people that ARE changing the world are the best organized gangs of criminals, that effectively control governments, and made and maintained the established systems of DEBT SLAVERY BACKED BY WARS BASED ON DECEITS.
The overall social facts are that the vast majority of people act like incompetent political idiots, or Zombie Sheeple, since they have been ruled over for generation after generation by the ruling classes who are the most psychopathic people, that specialized in backing up lies with violence, which became the current systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, or systems of ENFORCING FRAUDS, that are what enables and drives the STRIP-MINING OF THE PLANET TO CONTINUE AT AN EXPONENTIAL RATE.
By and large, it appears to me that most of the people who comment and vote on articles that predict dismal futures are deliberately ignorant of the basic FACTS, due to wanting to continue to rationalize and justify the strip-mining of the planet, which is pretty well what everyone has always been doing, for a long, long time, due to the ways that backing up deceits with destruction was what actually controlled what civilizations did, because nobody else could stop the best organized gangs of criminals from being able to do that. Therefore, the entire political economy is based on ENFORCED FRAUDS, which maintain attitudes of the maximum possible deliberate ignorance towards the ways that we are rushing AT AN EXPONENTIAL RATE TOWARDS DIMINISHING RETURNS FROM BEING ABLE TO CONTINUE TO STRIP-MINE THE PLANET.
The most probable futures are ones in which civilization continues to be controlled by the most criminally insane people, who are not good at anything except being dishonest and backing that up with violence. Since they will continue to prevail in each short-term increment, for the foreseeable future, as they also have been able to do for thousands of years in the past, the human species as a whole will rush as fast as it can into the walls of diminishing returns, and then bounce off over "Seneca Cliffs" whose bottoms can not now be imagined.
In my view, "the reality that people will react to escalating crises by changing behavior and policies" is the reality that they will become even more criminally insane than they already are. Of course, almost nobody recognizes that, because almost everyone is criminally insane in basically the same ways, because almost everyone has adapted to living inside of a civilization in which social success was based upon backing up deceits with destruction, and enforcing frauds, for thousands of years.
Indeed, that is being indicated by the overall pattern of comments and votes that are provoked by any articles republished on Zero Hedge that raises similar issues. The deeper reasons are all the same: social success based on being able to back up lies with violence is the FOUNDATION OF SOCIAL PYRAMID SYSTEMS, which are the systems in which everyone has been living for generation after generation, and therefore, were enjoying the short-term benefits from being able to continue to do that, in ways which developed to also be able to deliberately ignore the longer term consequences, because, over and over again, in the short-term the only things that actually mattered were being able to back up lies with violence.
When the total of human activities, which have been turning natural resources into garbage and pollution AT AN EXPONENTIAL RATE, reach the real limits of diminishing returns from being able to do that, the primary ways that will be dealt with is that people will behave even more criminally insane than they already are, AT AN EXPONENTIAL RATE!
In theory, "we should" develop different integrated systems of human, industrial and natural ecologies, that adapted better to the limits of being able to continue to strip-mine the planet. HOWEVER, there are no good grounds to believe that is what will actually happen. Rather, the most probable futures are that when the real consequences of maximizing short-term benefits, from being able to back up lies with violence reach some real limits, the results will be that most people will go through psychotic breakdowns, while the most psychopathic people, who are those who most actually control civilization at present, will be those who become the most psychotically insane, in the ways that they continue to double down on being able to enforce their frauds. Meanwhile, the vast majority of people will probably become more criminally insane by becoming even worse manifestations of Zombie Sheeple, who were always being fleeced to exhaustion, while they were being set up to be slaughtered.
It appears to me to be obvious common sense that our civilization is based on being able to strip-mine the planet, while disregarding the resulting garbage and pollution, because our civilization is controlled by being able to enforce frauds, and that results in everyone developing attitudes of evil deliberate ignorance, in order to become more socially successful within those established systems based upon enforcing frauds.
The human species as a whole is almost totally controlled by systems based on being able to back up lies with violence, which repeat as fractal patterns on every level. The ironic paradoxes I find in the Zero Hedge world is that more people superficially understand that, than in the mass media world, where most people do not understand that, HOWEVER, still in the Zero Hedge space, most people only superficially understand that, because they are still a kind of controlled opposition, that does not want to face the deeper reasons for the FACTS regarding how and why civilization has been controlled by systems based on ENFORCING FRAUDS ENABLING STRIP-MINING THE PLANET AT AN EXPONENTIAL RATE.
IF we were going to do anything better to adapt to the limits of being able to strip-mine the planet, that MUST mean developing better human death control systems, because those are necessarily at the heart of everything else. Those already are what control civilization, in ways which are based on the maximum possible deceits, in both the core organized crime groups, as well as in the surrounding controlled opposition groups.
The only realistic resolutions of the real problems would require different death controls at their core. However, the ways that those are actually going to happen are practically guaranteed to be due to psychotic breakdowns, and runaway criminal insanities, which will be first and foremost the ways that the ruling classes respond, since those are the covert ways that they have actually prepared to do, and that will be matched by the continuing craziness of those who were ruled over.
There are no good grounds to expect human beings to better understand themselves, so that they could adapt to the problems they have created by basing their behavior upon being able to socially successful through backing up lies with violence, or enforcing frauds. Any better responses would require enough people understanding enough how and why that was actually happened, because that is what it would take to operate better death control systems.
The limits to exponential growth of strip-mining the planet will be responded to in probably the worst possible ways, and that is reinforced by the ways that so many of the articles about that are so superficial, and so many of the comments and votes upon those kinds of articles have pushed cynicism to the point of stupidity.
THE INTENSE PARADOXES ARE THAT CIVILIZATION IS CONTROLLED BY ITS MURDER SYSTEMS, IN WAYS WHICH WERE MOST SUCCESSFUL BY BEING THE MOST DECEITFUL AND TREACHEROUS ...
THAT RESULTS IN CIVILIZATION OVERALL BEING RUNAWAY CRIMINAL INSANITIES, WHICH WILL RESPOND TO ITS REAL PROBLEMS BY BECOMING MUCH MORE CRIMINALLY INSANE.
... Of course, I wish that I could come to any other better conclusions. However, I am not able to, since everything that our civilization is actually doing now is based on strip-mining the planet, because it is controlled by enforcement of frauds, and yet, there are no political mechanisms which exist that could transform the existing death control systems to become anything better, rather than continue to become orders of magnitude more psychotic than they already are, when they are forced to face the FACTS of diminishing returns, in ways which they were previously able to deliberately ignore, for a long, long time ...
For those who are old and rich, that may not matter within their life time? However, for the younger and poorer, the consequences of civilization having always been controlled by being able to enforce frauds are coming at them hard and fast!
Doomer verbal extravagance, which typically over-simplifies and over-thinks it, in extremis, such as ignoring the exponential spread of recycling, and the technologies and applications of recycling, as well. It is not a one way street. Soil re-developes, water falls from the sky and cleans it as it falls through it, veg regrows, coral regrows, forests regrow, animals regrow, bounty returns every Spring. doh!
This now typical, and typically flimsy exponential end of the world claim should always be challenged, for if such predictions had ever been right, or even close to accurate, over the past 3 centuries, we would already have been loooong gone.
It's what it is, the peddling of raw fear, dressed up with imaginary policy 'solutions', to imaginary 'problems'.
The fact that we are here should be a bit of a hint, as to the futility of the general exponential collapse assertion. In 2009 and 2010 the latest fad was predicting total economic collapse from peak oil price spike in 2014 due to the ending of cheap supplies. And what actually happened? Just the opposite.
Btw, I have asked you before RM, and never gotten any sensible direct answers, what EXACTLY do you mean by "death controls".
Who do you want dead, how many, and who are the killers, and who is to benefit from this boon and boom in human 'sustainability' and alleged science maturation?
It's not like this is it, "OK, Roger, you bring the sacks of lime and meat hooks, I'll bring the nerve gas and pistols, and Eddie, we're going to need your excavator over at the town common, 2 AM sharp".
I mean, you do plan to make it more efficient, organized and bureaucratically officious and inhuman, right?
Would you please tell us who and how many you want dead, so that we have a better grasp of what a new and improved "death control" actually is?
I've always favored the Logan's Run "Carousel" myself, it's almost welcoming, romantic, but maybe you're more a soylent-green type of guy? ... have you ever considered writing a sci-fi horror script by any chance?
But most of all, I've never once understood the logic of why killing people is the 'solution', simply because WMD's can not be sustainably used any longer. There just seems to be several dozen steps of logic missing in arriving at your position, which have never been made clear and resolved, in any way, by you.
However, if it were and fully explained, logically sound, and made perfect scientific rational 'sense', to all, even then, I would just like to point out that life has never had any such 'problem' resolving the alleged issue of too much life in any one spot. In fact life seems more than content to add more life to it as the mechanism of resolution!
Have you noticed? :D
I will thus suggest that it is you who is putting forward to us a psychopathic FALSE DICHOTOMY.
In all cases life has successfully managed to allow the 'problem', to sort itself out, without any fuss, or require and intervention of any kind, simply using the trusty mechanisms of aging, accident, illness, famine, squabbles, etc.
Humans work against that and its called survival, adaptation and civilization, it's what we're all about, our number one claim to fame, in fact.
But its no good for us, huh?
So I'm always left wondering, why the hell is he so interested in murdering people as the asserted 'solution' to some intractable imagined 'problem', that requires we adopt his positions of finding far better ways of killing people, more efficiently, and 'scientifically'? Is he completely mad?
Presumably there's some great hidden benefit in this strategy? So, who 'benefits' from it? Where, how and why? Obviously not the people you've had murdered. But I think some basic explanation of the logic and detail is in order, if we are to do this, and drive the world to a much better place. No?
So please explain, flop it out, or keep flopping about intellectually to avoid answering, for as long as you like. I can wait, maybe I'll re-phrase the question in fifty different ways over the next year, maybe one will finally trigger some direct explanations and explicit detail, sans the 50 thousand words of completely useless blather and repetitions. ... omg, the endless repetitions! ... stay on message! ... stay on message! ... It's like flying down the trench on the Death Star from Star Wars 1, where the green lasers are pumping rounds out and the tie fighters are on yer butt, making that frightful shrieking racket behind you ... "stay on target!" ... "stay on target!" ... "stay on message" ... "stay on message" ... "ignore salient direct questions" ... "stay on target" ...
Darth: "hmm ... the Farce is strong with this one"
There's a quite staggering example of this crazed repetition of, 'the message', within this very thread, it's an absolutely mind-blowing repetitive super-rant, but as usual, zip re the deep-thunkin details, which he alludes to have woorked out, and which are never produced for examination, upon a direct request.
And via much repetition does it become 'normalized, begin to permeate the meme, and make so much more sense with time and many words? .... nooooo ... no it doesn't ... the questions remain and become even more focused and demanding of some real answers, please. LOL :D
And not one of you zh intellectual-defecating heroes, of the online reactionary 'enlightenment' and 'awakening', has ever questioned this preoccupation with producing a better replacement "death control" system, to replace the failure of war to kill enough people? ... really? ... hahaha! :D WTF?!
Baaaahh! Baaaaaahhh!
Come hither little zh sheep, uncle RM has a fabulous 'solution' ... for you!
Go on, hit the junk button, register your digital finger-wag of disapproval at the unfair, obnoxious and impolite use of reason. LOL :D
Actually, Element, I have answered many others, who have asked that previously, on Zero Hedge, regarding what I mean by "death controls." Furthermore, I have been recording that in my own threads, such as on Some Monetary System Articles, and 9/11. Anyone could skim those backwards, using the search strings "death controls" or "unitary mechanisms" to see the previous answers to those questions.
As well, my earlier books called Megasynthesis, and Letters Home From Oedipus, which I wrote before I was 30, several decades ago, were primarily about artificial selection systems, which are the human forms of natural selection systems.
I will repeat that one of the basic problems is that the language that we tend to have to use, where what are called "birth controls" are actually death controls. The ways I approach the problems would be to attempt to limit the human population in the most humane ways ... instead of the runaway systems we have now, which are deferring the death controls onto future generations, as well deferring the debts onto future generations.
Regarding how your reply started out, so far, all of the "recycling" combined has been relatively trivial. Certainly the petroleum has not been recycled. One excellent author that predicted very accurate how and why and when the paradoxical effects of "Peak Oil" would destroy demand, and suppress prices can be read here:
http://www.economic-undertow.com/
And also was republished at this site:
http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/
My own approach is what I regard as endeavouring to do as hard as possible political science fiction, rather that political fantasies. We ARE headed towards the ruling classes directing most of the death controls to be done in the worst possible ways, i.e., genocidal wars along with democidal martial law.
The essential problems continue to be the interaction feedback loops between human artificial selection systems, inside of natural selection systems. So far, our civilization deliberately does NOT understand that any better, because the consequences of doing so necessarily demonstrate the human civilizations operate according to the principles and methods of organized crime. It contradicts operating the death controls deceitfully, to be more genuinely scientific about the overall conceptualization of those death controls. Your responses, Element, strike me as relatively typical, because those are still superficial misinterpretations of what I am suggesting, because you want to continue to fit that into your old-fashioned preferred ways of perceiving the world, which do not recognize the ways that thousands of years of history based on social success through backing up lies with violence has inverted that ways that we think about everything almost totally, most especially including the death control systems, whose most important primary effects are to provide legalized violence to back up legalized lies, or enforce the frauds that end up controlling everything else, as those are the real foundation of the existing political economy, and run rampant throughout all other systems, as as regarding food and medicine, which therefore end up killing far more people that bullets ever do.
Our fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems make "money" out of nothing to "pay" for strip-mining the planet. Since it was a big planet, we were able to do that at an exponential rate for a long time ... starting out slowly and insignificantly, thousands of years ago, to become much more significant as we doubled down in the last few Centuries, and then in the last few decades.
We are just beginning to see the real limits of diminishing returns showing up, NOW ... Those turning or tipping points are only beginning to have effects, which effects are going to get way worse, in the foreseeable future! The ability to strip-mine the planet temporarily made things better, but at the cost of making things later get way worse.
The ability to defer the death controls onto the future is running out ... Just as the runaway debt slavery generated numbers which are debt insanities, that future generations are supposed to be responsible for, but could never actually cope with, so too the older and richer generations have deferred the death controls onto future generations ...
It is impossible for there to be endless exponential growth. By definition, what stops that are the death controls. The only possible choices are worse or better death control systems. However, sine the existing systems are the most deceitful, while all of the controlled opposition shies away from both that, and that there must necessarily be some death control systems, the most probable defaults are the worst possible.
There always were, are and will be death control systems as long as any life exists. However, the long history of successfully backing up deceits with destruction and enforcing frauds has resulted in almost everyone embracing attitudes of as much deliberate ignorance as possible regarding that. Hence, the INTENSE PARADOX that science is applied to develop weapons that are trillions of times more powerful, but is NOT applied to comprehending the deeper reasons for how and why there must be death control systems, due to the INTENSE PARADOX that civilization is controlled by organized crime, that is most socially successful the more that it can operate covertly, and surround itself with controlled opposition.
I promote thinking about the death controls in radically different ways, in order to perhaps be able to operate death controls in radically different ways. However, we keep on slip-sliding away on the slippery slope of the development of weapons of mass destruction, without any ways to negotiate better death control systems between the dominate organized crime gangs, due to the ways that all of those are so totally dominated by the best professional liars and immaculate hypocrites, who are who they are because they have perfected their ability to be deceitful about the death controls, including perfected their ability to control the opposition groups to also stay within the same frame of reference of deceitfulness regarding the death control systems.
All your comment confirms, Element, is that you do not want to think any differently, but rather want to continue to pigeon hole my communication back into the categories you prefer, regardless of how dangerously obsolete that categorization of the death control systems have become. Hence, in an ironic way, you have again demonstrated my main point in my previous comments, that our civilization has been so totally controlled by enforcing frauds so much, for so long, that practically everyone now takes their criminal insanities for granted: as is demonstrated in a relatively objective way by the MAD Mutual Assured Destruction policies, that keeps thousands of atomic bombs on hair-triggers, while none of the underlying problems are being resolved, but rather all of those problems continue to automatically get worse, faster ...
Unfortunately you are terminally addicted to imaginary problems. :D
Your birth was a surprise, and on-going life a bonus. Your existence did not have to happen, but it did. And if you can not make the most of that and appreciate the fact of it, and your lack of your deserving even one more breath, then you will die bitter and twisted, about that bonus, as you have lived it. It's not the world, nor someone else that has to 'wake up', or to 'change', all your perceived 'problems' are you, and you alone, and they will end when you end.
And good riddance to bad rubbish, eh? :D
spherical cow in a vacuum, jackarse.
..
Wait a minute I have a question - if these climate guys understand climate change as well as they say they do and if it's as indisputable as their models claim, why didn't they predict the drought in california decades ago, warn us all about it, and do something about it before it happened???? Oh that's right, a few decades ago climate scientists were predicting that a new ice age was imminent.
Global warming fearmongering == new age religion.
Al Gore == Jesus. George Bush II and the republicans crucified him for our sins.
Carbon emission through a person being alive == original sin.
Climate 'Deniers' == posessed by demons.
Carbon tax == indulgences.
New world order == the new religious organization to save us all.
Radical Malthusians == a threat to humanity far more dangerous than climate change or any other environmental problem.
Well spotted! The similarity is remarkable.
Radical Malthusians == self-appointed doom angels of the anti-savior of the pockyclypse.
Another bogus climate food resource doom scenario based on computer models.
The only thing ending civilisation is politicians starting WWIII
More like the non-investment in life sustatining technologies due to climate fascism and wall street/city of london scams is what will cause it.
Isn't it nice of them to blame the problems they cause on something else.
Nonsense.
Mankind is finished.
The cause is tyranny AKA central planning.
Canary in the coal mine:
'China's Communist-Capitalist Ecological Apocalypse'So the civilized are to be encouraged to stop breeding (as if they needed to be), while savages in ever corner of the planet are to be encouraged to breed like rats and send invasion forces north in search of food and white pussy. That joke wasn't funny when the Club of Rome tried to tell it. It hasn't gotten any better.
We need better people, not fewer people. You want sustainable development, encourage only people smart enough to understand that there are no free lunches to breed. For everyone else, bringing smallpox out of retirement would be a lot cheaper than neutering and spaying every nigger in Africa as a way of bringing its population back to a manageable size, as long as the peoples of civilized nations were vaccinated first.
Wealthy, well-organized countries do a much better job of dealing with natural disasters than poor countries inhabited by fuckwits. Countries whose people are rich enough to have the leisure to waste a moment's thought on "climate change" rarely have a problem dealing with real cycles of severe weather. That will only change if banksters use eco-kookery as an excuse to steal more than they already do.
"Wealthy, well-organized countries do a much better job of dealing with natural disasters than poor countries inhabited by fuckwits."
Raycist raycist raycist!
You crackas always be dumping on the black man!
Email me at racehustlauniverciti@blackandproud.com
Paul Ehrlich was a frequent guest on Johnny Carson's Tonight show . He was the Jewish author of the book Population Bomb and he lectured all over the universities and colleges preaching the gospel that whites shouldn't have kids due to population explosion. Well Carson had a HUGE audience and the propaganda worked, white women have about 1.6 children according to last information I read and it was trending down from there.
Now I look around and see Mexican and other Latinas with 4, 5, 6 children, Vietnamese women with, in Cali, one had 17 children, and black women seem to be replenishing and growing their community. They may be 13% of the population they used to be 9% but that is only because the growth due to immigration and immigrant births keeps going, the Asians are the fastest growing race in the USA today, one would have thought the Mexicans but no. And that Asian immigration is largely LEGAL.
What about all the niños coming through the border? Why America will have one of the youngest populations soon, despite some of the 6x underwear wearing, gray hair and wrinkles "children" attending school from Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador.
Of course another reason America is older is that so many young Whites have been murdered over the last decades, even little babies, last year an illegal Mexican who had shacked up with a single mom in Washington state raped the 1 year old and finished her off. If you think that is RARE, think again.
When a native species is overwhelmed by an invasive species their birthrates go down. This is what happens in nature and that is what happened, IS happening, in America today to those WHO BUILT THE COUNTRY.
"before you panic, the good news is..."
Oh don't worry....there was never even the slightest chance in hell that I would "panic" after hearing such laughable tripe.
Yes, someone within the government is actually taking serious the trends that we are on, but the people at the top (i.e. Obama and Cameron) are focused on excelerating those existing trends.