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Goldman's "Conspiracy Theory" Stunner: A Greek Default Is Precisely What The ECB Wants
Last week, we showed a curious thesis by Goldman, which asked if there is a new and "ominous" development in European currency swings, namely the emergence of what may be a "under the table" fight between the ECB and the Bundesbank on which bonds to monetize.
This is what Goldman said then:
the average maturity of ECB bond buying is around 8.0 years, in line with what Executive Board member Coeure said in his May 18 speech. However, while Italy and Spain see purchases that have an average maturity above that of the outstanding debt stock, Bundesbank buying has fallen short from the very beginning.... This kind of signal – from the key hawk in the Eurosystem – has the potential to undercut the credibility of ECB QE, since it weakens the portfolio balance channel.
After all, it was supposed to be low yields in core Europe into risk assets. If those yields now rise and become more volatile, such portfolio effects will be lessened.
Today, in a follow up report by Goldman's Robin Brooks and company, and one which seeks to validate Goldman's "top trade" thesis of a weak Euro currency, (recall Goldman top trade #1 for 2015: "Stay long EUR/$ downside via 1-year 1.00/0.95 put spread (originally at 1.20/1.15 with a premium of 70bp EUR at initiation, expiring on 20 Nov 2015, opened at a spot EUR/$ of 1.253 on 20 Nov 2014, currently at 1.135.") Goldman explains why despite relentless Greek drama, the EUR hasn't moved and its conclusion is that this is due to "growing question marks over ECB QE" as a result of the surprising bond-buying on the short end (at the expense of reducing longer-term maturity holdings) out of the Bundesbank which has "reduced the maturity of its QE buying."
From Goldman:
As tensions around Greece have mounted, it is something of a puzzle that EUR/$ has shown little reaction. Our explanation, laid out in our last FX Views, is that much of this price action stems from the Bundesbank, which has reduced the maturity of its QE buying, enabling the Bund sell-off and moving longer-dated rate differentials in favor of the Euro. EUR/$ thus hasn’t traded Greece, but instead growing question marks over ECB QE.
Here is Goldman's full take:
From an economic perspective, Greece shows that “internal devaluation” – whereby structural reforms are meant to restore competitiveness and growth –is difficult politically and a poor substitute for outright devaluation. Emerging markets that devalue during crises quickly return to growth, powered by exports, while Greek GDP continues to languish. We emphasize this because – even if a compromise involving a debt haircut is found – this will not do much to return Greece to growth. Only a managed devaluation, with the help of the creditors, can do that. With respect to EUR/$, we think the Bund sell-off increases EUR/$ downside if tensions over Greece escalate further. This is because the ECB, including via the Bundesbank, would almost surely step up QE to prevent contagion. We estimate that the immediate aftermath of a default could see EUR/$ fall three big figures. The ensuing acceleration in QE would then take EUR/$ down another seven big figures in subsequent weeks. We thus see Greece as a catalyst for EUR/$ to go near parity, via stepped up QE that moves rate differentials against the single currency.
Incidentally, "internal devaluation" is a very polite way of saying plunging wages, labor costs, and generally benefits, including pensions.
But if this is correct, Goldman essentially says that it is in the ECB's, and Europe's, best interest to have a Greek default - and with limited contagion at that - one which finally does impact the EUR lower, and resumes the "benign" glideslope of the EURUSD exchange rate toward parity, a rate which recall reached as low as 1.05 several months ago before rebounding to its current level of 1.14. Needless to say, that is a "conspiracy theory" that could make even the biggest "tin foil" blogs blush.
A different way of saying what Goldman just hinted at: "Greece must be destroyed, so it (and the Eurozone) can be saved (with even more QE)."
Or, in the parlance of Rahm Emanuel's times, "Let no Greek default crisis go to QE wastel."
Goldman continues:
Greece, like many emerging markets before it, is suffering a balance of payments crisis, whereby a “sudden stop” in foreign capital inflows caused GDP to fall sharply. In emerging markets, this comes with a large upfront currency devaluation – on average around 30 percent across nine key episodes (Exhibit 1) – that lasts for over four years. This devaluation boosts exports, so that – as unpleasant as this phase of the crisis is – activity rebounds quickly and GDP is significantly above pre-crisis levels five years on (Exhibit 2). In Greece, although unit labor costs have fallen significantly, price competitiveness has improved much less, with the real effective exchange rate down only ten percent (with much of that drop only coming recently). This shows that the process of “internal devaluation” is difficult and, unfortunately, a poor substitute for outright devaluation. The reason we emphasize this is because, even if a compromise is found that includes a debt write-down (as the Greek government is pushing for), this will do little to return Greece to growth. Only a managed devaluation can do that, one where the creditors continue to lend and help manage the transition.
Here, Goldman does something shocking - it tells the truth! "As such, the current stand-off is about something much deeper than the next disbursement. It signals that the concept of “internal devaluation” is deeply troubled."
Bingo - because what Goldman just said in a very polite way, is that a monetary union in which one of the nations is as far behind as Greece is, and recall just how far behind Greece is relative to IMF GDP estimates imposed during the prior two bailouts...
... simply does not work, and for the union to be viable, a stressor needs to emerge so that broad currency devaluation benefits not only the peak performers, i.e., the northern European states, but the weakest links such as Greece.
Incidentally, all of this was previewed long ago in, in December 2012 when we wrote "Next Up For A "Recovering" Europe: A 30-50% Collapse In Wages In Spain, Italy And... France." To Greece's great chagrin, all of this internal devaluation has mostly impacted the impoverished country, which continues to be a shock absorber to broader internal devaluation across the entire Eurozone.
Which brings us back to Goldman's assessment of the current Greek state, and the suggestion that all the smoke and mirrors flooding the headline-scanning algos is nothing but noise, and that in reality the forces are alligned to "push the EUR near parity in fairly short order."
Paradoxically, Goldman keeps pushing for a worst-case outcome, and one where the market finally reprices all the risk it has ignored for months:
Even if Greece ultimately stays in the Euro (our base case), the immediate aftermath of such a non-payment will be to push bond yields up across the periphery. This rise in the fiscal risk premium (Exhibit 3) will of course be limited, because the ECB will likely accelerate QE, including via the Bundesbank. That will push rate differentials, especially longer-dated ones (Exhibit 4), against EUR/$. We estimate that the initial fiscal risk premium effect could be three big figures, while the subsequent QE effect could be worth around seven big figures.
The conclusion:
In short, we see mounting tensions over Greece as a catalyst for EUR/$ to move near parity in fairly short order, with much of that move driven by rate differentials. If, instead, a compromise solution is found (including possible debt haircuts), we see the upside to EUR/$ as very limited, i.e. on the order of one big figure at most. The reason for this is that the market is broadly expecting an agreement to be found, even with the possibility of a default in the near term on debt repayments coming due.
And of course, going back to the start of the note, a "favorable" outcome pushing EUR higher will be one that "will do little to return Greece to growth" and as a result will force the insolvent nation back to the negotiating table until such time as the Eurozone finally realizes that it desperately needs EUR much lower, not higher, and will do everything it can to achieve that, even if it means "siloing" Greece in a state of suspended default indefinitely if only to eliminate the "risk on" euphoria in the currency pair.
Indeed, as we said last year, the entire escalation over the Ukraine conflict was merely to push Europe to the verge of a triple-dip recession, which in turn was the catalyst that finally greenlighted the ECB's first episode of QE with Buba's blessing (after all Germany's economy was finally on the brink as well and it had little to lose). Well, the next such "catalyst" will come from none other than Greece as per Goldman's punchline:
We encounter many who argue that mounting tensions over Greece could be Euro positive. The short term angle is that risk reduction will lead to a squeeze of Euro shorts, so that EUR/$ could squeeze higher. The reason we don’t believe this is because we think stepped up ECB QE will dominate any risk-off response. Or, to put this in another way, the ECB will not allow the fiscal risk premium to go all that much higher. The medium-term angle is that the Euro zone might be more cohesive without Greece. That rationale assumes that Greece is a case apart, when of course it isn’t. After all, the Spanish unemployment rate is not far behind that of Greece and populist political pressure is also building. The underlying commonality, in our minds, is that “internal devaluation” is very difficult. As a result, we think mounting tensions around Greece could just as well focus market attention on the sustainability of the adjustment program on the Euro periphery.
Whoever would have thought that none other than Goldman would serve as the source of what may be the biggest "conspiracy theory" gambit of 2015...
One final thought: what Goldman wants, its former employee at the ECB tends to deliver.
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Goldman Sachs should be in the "dock" along with former Greek government officials and on trial for perpetrating a fraud.
Everyone at Goldman should be hanging at the hague for crimes against humanity.
Greece should switch to the Ruble or the Yuan, let us destroy the Western Elites.
Geez, pushing entire countries into insolvency just to knock a few pennies off the exchange rate? I don't know about that. If it's a reason its certainly not the only one.
Are we absolutely certain this can't be fixed by printing more money? I mean, shit, everything else has been fixed that way, why not this?
Eurozone doomed whether Greece leaves or stays, study shows
Throw those pathetic Greek deadbeats out of Europe already.
Speaking of broken stuff, Note to the Tyler(s): The site has become almost unusable. So many scripts running, so many pop up ads, so many autorunning video ads, so much audio clutter, that page loads take forever, and sometimes fail completely. When I have to click through an ad which covers the content front and center, I go elsewhere.
SW,
I've installed Ad Blocker on Chrome and it has reduced the annoyances:
https://adblockplus.org/
The shock of Greece getting the boot fromt he EuroZone willl be just the thing to get the rest of Europe on the fast track to Federalizing.
That has always been the goal.,one government Europe and you need a crisis of epic proportions and pain in the wallet to get peple to choose to enslave themsselves.
If we do it its conspiracy theory, if Goldman does it its sound analysis.
Any public announcement by goldman can be safely taken to mean they are taking the opposite position.
The ecb and imf need a greek bailout far more desperately than greece. Especially now that the BRICS bank has duped the populace into thinking it can also conjure value from nothing.
OT: Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense defects to Donetsk Republic.
Major-General Alexander Kolomiets confirmed that many of his colleagues and countrymen want to switch to the side of DPR.
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/06/deputy-minister-of-defense-of-ukrai...
Read this bro, I'm a former computer tech & programmer with many years of experience, it will help you a lot... http://galeinnes.blogspot.com/2014/06/protecting-your-pc.html
(To all the down voter, hey, nobody paid me to do the research to help people, and it took me a lot of time to make that blog post, which you can verify the information with any real tech. I assure you it's accurate & need to know information for most computer users, though I don't write for Mac & Andriod, sorry.)
It was so much simpler(in a way) with punchcards.
My first computer was far bigger than my office now.The desktop calculatot took a desktop
to house it.2400 bps ,full duplex,was state of the art for modems.
i'm getting old, and feeling it.
Yup. But dropping a stack of IBM cards and/or getting your data cards mixed in with your program deck was a nightmare. That was personal data storage back then, a stack of punchcards - a card stock equivalent of a USB jump drive.
The recommendations you are making are out of date.
Run the free version of Spyhunter and you'll see how much is getting around Malwarebytes and MVPS. Both are crap. (so is Windows Defender and Avast)
You don't have to purchase the software, you can turn on invisible folder items and go into your iNet folder and remove the spyware manually, same for going into the task manager to remove registry items, but at least Spyhunter lets you know what's on your machine.
RogueKiller, ComboFix, Rkill, AdwKiller, Junkware Killer, TDSS killer, Sophos Anti Rootkit are also great free tools. (you need to be careful with things like Combokiller and Rogue Killer, only use them for scanning, don't remove items that they list. You need to search what these items are and how to safely deal with them. A good resource is the Bleeping Computer help section. They have line item walkthroughs on the removal process where they helped other people deal with infections)
One software doesn't do all, especially if you need to get something out of your rootkit, because a lot of malware/spyware is hidden deeply and reinstalls on boot. Even with an Ad Blocker and Self Destructing Cookies, you need to scan daily and take stuff out because a lot of things get through (once you do a primary deep clean up, daily maintenance takes a few minutes).
Hope this helps.
you have something called NO SCRIPT, where nothing apear but the basic html, you should try it....
Yes, script blocking is essential to stopping those pesky corps from sniffing the hell out of your computer every time you go to their site... It also stops them from getting your IP Address, which could be used for all sorts of evil things (like direct hacking)...
"It also stops them from getting your IP Address...."
Wrong. How can a server send you a web page without your IP address?
You don't have NoScript running?!
https://noscript.net
Once you add this to your browser you'll be amazed how many servers one website talks to.
And just how many of them have "google" somewhere in their name. Then consider that "google" and "NSA" likely amount to the same thing.
In Internet Explorer you don't need an ad blocker. Just go to Manage add-ons, and under Tracking Protection, add EasyPrivacy, PrivacyChoice, and Trust-e tracking protection lists. This blocks almost all the ads. Unfortunately it doesn't block the Wolferei script that keeps repeating something about throwing those lazy German banksters out of Europe already on every thread.
Ghostery on firefox.
Pathetic Greek ...
FFS, give it a rest, asshole - is this the only comment you can come up with in the last week?
This bot is faulty , they never get stuck on one sentence.
Fuck You Wolferl, you malaka. Greece is trying to negotiate. Everyone else is giving them ultimatums. I hope Greece tells the oligarchs to go pound sand. I hope it gives the Italians, Spandiards. etc... courage to do the same.
Yup, Wolferl. I'm with ya. Cut 'em lose! Otherwise, we'll motivate Germans to drop the EZ bullshit and walk away from all ECB bullshit liabilities that we are supposed to carry.
Fuck 'em all!
lol, it seems the greeks are doing it themselves!
(it appears that the euroleaders are scrambling for and will be putting forward a new improved long term package - that includes debt forgiveness, as per Lew's edict - in the hope that the greek government will support a YES vote in the referendum)
The Greek People did not hire Goldman. Their "elected leaders" did.
V A M P I R E S Q U I I I I I I I D ! ! ! !
Some folks like watching Nascar, some soccer, some porn. Others enjoy watching pensioners struggle while making a quick euro.
The attitude comes from sunshine, magnifying glass and ants.
And feeding rat poison to puppies.
I've got this feeling that Greece won't be the only pensioners up in arms soon....
Kill the chicken to teach the monkey. The big picture is about Italy and Spain. If Greece goes unpunished too long, then the reckoning for those countries will be much, much worse. Who's to blame is irrelevant for this stage of the game.
Anybody that trusts Goldman Sachs as anything more than a contrarian indicator needs a refresher in critical thinking skills.
Goldman has value. For example, if you want to market time ETFs, one strategy would be to do the opposite of whatever GS says publicly. I can tell you sincerely that this has worked for me several times.
But otherwise, they are self-serving, manipulative liars. GS officially, publicly assured us all that they would shut down their Sigma X Dark Pool. What did they do? Swallow up their competition, then instead, expand their Dark Pool and HFT.
GS is a pack of liars and should never be trusted at face value.
Anybody that trusts Goldman Sachs as anything more than a contrarian indicator needs a refresher in critical thinking skills.
Goldman has value. For example, if you want to market time ETFs, one strategy would be to do the opposite of whatever GS says publicly. I can tell you sincerely that this has worked for me several times.
But otherwise, they are self-serving, manipulative liars. GS officially, publicly assured us all that they would shut down their Sigma X Dark Pool. What did they do? Swallow up their competition, then instead, expand their Dark Pool and HFT.
GS is a pack of liars and should never be trusted at face value.
Of course, GS is the mafia so they recognize mafia tactics, impressed that they called it so honestly. That's the scary part is that they have no choice but to acknowledge the real events now in their notes.
The jew mafia.
very true, the same people who started the arson are now running around with a fire truck. Why did they not figure this out 6 years ago .. even zerohedge and other blogs figured that out years ago.
http://just-a-thought-from-thinair.blogspot.com/
If Greece would have arrested and prosecuted the ones responsible, I would bet the EU/ECB/IMF would sit down and hammer out an agreement.
The first thing on the table would be ,"No Prosecutions" as saving banksters seems to be the common theme.
However, things being as they are, Greece would rather prosecute the reporter who published the complete list of tax cheats with the Greek names that weren't removed.
Good analogy. Quite a few fire chiefs have served time for arson.
A bit like 9/11, come to think of it. No one in jail yet, but.
In Russia under putin regime rule seniors pension is 125 $ a month!
http://www.rferl.org/content/good-tsar-bad-tsar-complaining-doesnt-alway...
The cost of living is like this... 7.00 $ for 500g (about 1,1 lbs) of local cheese
http://www.expatistan.com/price/cheese/moscow/USD
Could you live with such money?
putin regime is pathetic one - no doubt about that.
False. (But entirely what you would expect from that source).
Retirement pensions in Russia are paid in Rubles, not dollars.
Of cource in Russia pensions are paid in RUB and not in USD, but for readers they don't give a **** about RUB and how much value it holds.
But everyone can undesrtand that there is no living with 125 $ a month.
Meanwhile in Bulgaria, a EU member-state, average pension is $75/month.
That in itself doesn't mean shit until you've compared earnings to local living standards. Now go pound some zio-sand!
I just compared prices - cheese costs 7 $ for 500g in Russia.
So would you like to live for 125$ in Russia.
P.S. Never heard from zerohedger that Bulgaria is some kind of "world leader that will soon win over US"
So comparing prices in Moscow to the rest of Russia is not that bright now, is it? Moscow, one of the most expensive cities in the world. It's like saying someone living on social security for $800/month in the US has to pay an average of $3,500 rent in Manhattan. Wow, the US gov't is really screwing the seniors with those SS wages! Your argument is false.
Are you saying there are no people in Moscow living on pension?
Are you for real?
Also did you know that prices in regions are high because of logistics to get goods there? Actually there are few things that Russia can supply on it's own. Huge amount are imported including food supply. And than spread across country.
Can you post the link to these comparison stats?
a start.
http://www.infoplease.com/askeds/bread-basket-europe.html
.
It seems to me that you are delusional. Should we feel sorry for such patients?
By the way, heard somewhere that you paid potato for the day's commenting?
Newsoutlet, not only are your comparisons and subsequent arguments poorly chosen, presented and thought out you have also ignored the fact that Social Security and govt pensions are not intended to be "maintain your standard of living" payments.
They are intended to be supplements.
Therefore what is your fucking point?
If you are Russian try drinking some more vodka and maybe you'll see the error in your logic.
what happened baltic shoeboyLatvian govt aint paying you euros anympre?
rfe cia foreign funded media outlet . Poor source you got there . Does it take much effort to be a moron kool-aider ?
Hey newsoutlet. Fuck you! Senior pension is dependent on many different factors and is much higher than your claim of 125 $ a month.
Wait till Boris gets here, he's going to pound the shit out of you.
Need your big brother to put up a loosing fight?
I think not.
you so lost that it is desolating to try to understand your values of your own ideal of society ...
not every one need apple watch and chevy hilux plus 80" flat tv to feel alive and healthy.......
True; however, they go straight to the foreign exchange and buy USD.
Whatever.
You can buy a pack of Marlboro's for $1.58 in Moscow accoring to your link.
Another useless mouthbreathing Euro-peon.
EURO-TRASH...
There is huge black market on cigarets in Russia. So putin regime can not apply huge tax on smoking like it's possible in western world.
That is why smoking in Russia is cheaper. But as you can see 500g cheese 7 $ when you have to live for a month on 125 $ - it's not normal in western world - but it's reality under putin regime.
What kinf of cheese? A price is meaningless without a context.
It say "The price of 500 gr (16 oz.) of local cheese in Moscow is $7 (??? 354)"
Such agency would not messuare one kind of sort of cheese or exclusive cheese - don't you think? Simply average local cheese.
There are other products too.
Or do you think that poor russian should be able to live with 125 $ a month? Would you like to join them? Join the "winners"? :D
Also it says that cheese is, "In Milwaukee, Wisconsin the price is 99% lower than in Moscow"... do the math for me please.
Opened http://www.expatistan.com/cost-of-living/comparison/moscow/charlotte-uni... according to that Charlotte, North Carolina (United States)
500 gr (16 oz.) of local cheese $5.66
Would you join Russia with 125 $ a month?
Ever bought cheese in Canada?
Wish I could.
I don't consider any american cheese as cheese.bland and no real variety.extra sharp is
really mild.More like yellow cardboard.The imitation foriegn cheeses , are poor imitations at best.
You need to get past Safeway.
http://www.yellowpages.com/beaver-dam-wi/mip/schultzs-cheese-house-6976974
I do .I can get real imported cheese ar Carmines, but pasteurized per USDA requirements.
I have an American friend from Wisconsin, and he totally agrees with me .i turned him on to real cheese
when he lived in the UK.between the beer and the cheese, he didn't want to come home.
.
Would you troll for a potato?
Of course he would. If he is an industrious lad, he'll soon have enough potatoes to make a pint of vodka.
Russia is winning and you're losing. Thats a fact. Long term Russia has already won. Get over it and accept that fact. Why waste the energy being upset at something you cant change?
Only front where putin regime is winning is information warfare. No other country has invested directly from it's budget to propaganda lies creation as putin regime.
But outside propaganda this is how your "winner" looks like:
https://youtu.be/OscXu88aSXU?t=32s
Use your brain for a second.
The developing world is taking over. Thats an undeniable fact.
As an energy and resource powerhouse Russia will be at the forefront of the next geopolitical and economic powerhouses in Asia. Thats a fact.
No matter how hard NATO and the brainwashed idiots, such as yourself, want to control Russia so as to prevent the inevitable macroeconomic shifts in Asia they wont. Russians know the game and know NATO is a dieing corrupt shithole and hence there is no political option for NATO. Russians will not support a dieing corrupt lunatic run NATO.
Militarily, NATO also has no option other than barking like a bitch in heat. NATO is far too weak to win any war with Russia. NATO attacks Russia and NATO dies. That is also a fact.
Meanwhile the EU is a social and economic dumpster. Europe is dead and has no hope of becoming anything worthwhile in the next century. Also a fact.
As for the US...well we all know the problems it has and to make things worse its running out of friends real fast. US hegemony is over.
So tell us again? Who is winning? All Russia needs to do is wait. As for the NATO countries..they are collapsing into their own assholes and there is nothig they can do to stop it
Russia will become de facto (or maybe even de jure) a China colony. That is for sure.
Watch:
https://youtu.be/a0DEbJitRaY
Already putin regime has given away Russian land to China. Already there are more chinese than russians in east Russia. Already putin regime has cut normal relationship with west and only partner left are China and Chinese knows how to use that in their advantage.
Only you would not learn about in from putin regime propaganda as ZH.
So instead of addressing the points i made your defence is some neocon conspiracy theory wet dream? Do you realize how brainwashed you are?
Admit it. NATO is finished and Europe is a dumpster. Its over. NATO lost and is powerless to keep American hegemony intact. Game over.
Russia propaganda during USSR screamed that US is doomed, EU is doomed. Only thing that collapsed was USSR. Than putin regime propaganda trolls screamed that US is doomed, EU is doomed, only thing that had collapse moment was RUB during X-mas.
ZH has aso posted articles how US, EU is doomed and so far.. no... nothing is doomed regarding NATO, US, EU. Nothing.
"Russia propaganda during USSR screamed that US is doomed, EU is doomed"
Sounds like they were dead on...
Wait, you think everything is okay in the US and EU from an economic and social viewpoint? Serious?LOL
So you dont even come here to get educated about geopolitics and macroeconomics...you just come here to post NATO propaganda because the thought of others questioning the hilarious NATO propaganda that you actally believe enrages you?
I see ZH spreading putin regime propaganda. So I oppose that in order to protect people from it.
I guess you din't like information about how putin regime giving away Russian land.
I would recommend you to watch some other info out side putin regime to understand it's problems:
https://youtu.be/77W2h6CFn_Y
Are you paid to post NATO propaganda or are you just that brainwashed by it?
Also, what country do you live in?
Answer seriously.
He is in Latvia and works hard trolling for his potato.
I'm not a disciple of Putin. I merely appreciate it when the Putin regime calls bullshit on the Obama regime. It's clear that Obama and his Western partners are inciting conflicts worldwide. Lucky for us, the people who get ground up during a war, Russia and China have cooler heads.
I have no doubts that if something catastrophic were to begin then it would be the West starting it. Obama, Clinton, Rumsfeld, Bush and Cheney etc are all the same to me. Psychopathic mostly, naive slightly.
.
Latvian paid potato troll screamed State Department propaganda as viedoklis_lv.
Latvian paid potato troll screamed Kiev junta propaganda as freedom123.
Latvian paid potato troll now screaming propaganda as newsoutlet.
These are just the rickets intellectual capacity of. The brain is about the size of a head with sulfur from the matches.
Meantimes, if newsoutlet removes noodles from the ears, will understanding Latvia is doomed.
http://www.gorod.lv/novosti/256586-zapret-na-eksport-Ethereum-katastrofa
I lived with a Latvian woman for a year. She was the biggest pathologocal liar I ever met and she was all about taking advantage of people and getting a free ride. She loved potatoes and kept one up her snatch, saying it was a Latvian custom, like fucking your relatives around a bonfire while wearing a deer head during Ligo and Jani (solstice sex orgy).
A women? With you?
In your wet teen dreams you pathetic putin regime troll. Must been your loved potatoe what you have been fucking for last years. You and your potatoe buddy are really into them in very obvious way :D
Cheer up little guy!
You'll go to Lyashko with the Latvian volunteer battalion, the Knight of the Diaper and Strap-on.
?? ??-?????? ????????? Or do you know anyone in Russia? I do both, and i can assure you that the only one doing obvious information warfare on Zerohedge is you. Please kindly stop your ignorant tirade. Pensions in Russia have only risen since Putin came to power. And 7$ for less than a kilo of cheese? IN MOSCOW, on of the most expensive cities on Earth, yes. It happens to most tourist locations.
If you want to discuss the merits and fault of the russian government, at least be wise enough to do some real research from primary sources before speaking. Otherwise, you just pollute the environment with your presence.
Edit: It seems zerohedge doesn't like russian characters.
"7$ for less than a kilo of cheese"
ha ha ha TWICE as less than 1 kilo :D
500g that is.
Again - would yuu like to join russian people with 125 $ a month?
Potato paid training manual and a lying troll.
On the cookies at the State Department, yeah.
ha ha ha TWICE as less than 1 kilo :D
A kilogram = 1000 grams. Therefore, 500g = 1/2 kilogram.
You might want to learn the metric system - or at least basic math - before spouting propaganda that's data and math dependent.
Russia has its problems, like every country that's run by human beings. But the bankster-infested West is utterly fucked, at this point.
Read again what I wrote.
I said TWICE less than 1 kg. Yes, 500g is TWICE less than 1000g.
Bzzzzzt! Wrong.
500g is half of one kg.
Your wording can not sense making is. Unless what ONCE less than one kg you can tell is.
Perhaps try working out the maths with potato.
ummmm.....everyone is losing, there are no victors except the 0.00001%
What nonsense!
No pensions for the elderly, expensive food.... and yet, somehow, I don't recall hearing about "all the starving people in Russia". Now why do you think that might be? I'll give you a hint. "Putin regine is a pathetic one" is not the answer.
Superior Investigative Reporting?
I guess that means US-backed sanctions are even more immoral than we thought - although that story and site appear a bit...dubious.
Say, fellow - you aren't here to "troll" the joint, are you?
our latvian friend videoklislv is back .
That's about a pound of cheese. That is a lot of cheese. $7 a pound in a major metro doesn't seem to far fetched.
On the other hand, if they aren't careful and get the prices too low they will all become obese like Americans.
16 oz of shitty cheddar at the local convience store here in the USSA is over $5.
Oh, the humanity.
Radio Free Europe? Really? Why not just link to the propaganda departments of the eu and us directly?
If not, then out the window!
Wasn't Goldman eyeball deep in all this Greek and Euro banking shit all along? So now they're just sideline commentators? Absurd.
yes. they consulted on ways to disguise the debt at the time so that it would not show up on the balance sheet as a liability. wah lah - you're a €uro meister, as good as any german.
Just an observation. In the ~10 seconds between refreshes of the home page of zerohedge.com, this article appeared and had ~1,050 views. I think ~1,000 machines/programs are reading zerohedge articles.
Have you seen some of the comments lately?
we see "plans within plans"
"you must share with us...."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGqdE1NdMTg
"View" = search hit
trick is...follow zerohege on twitter and monitor the feed. or follow the rss.
wa lah - you're a master
When a magggot like Icahn uses twitter to pump his holdings, it pretty much soils the entire operation. Twitter is MSM in pablum sized servings.
i don't think Wa-Lah means what you think it means.
V O I L A -
Ignoramus
Yes, you'll probably have to look it up, wildpoor.
This is why people watch football and reality shows. They see a Greece rescue then the tribes bank states the ECB really wants Greece to default. It is confusing to keep up with which is why us on ZH are a minority.
So says the firm that was "nowcasting" $30/bbl WTI in Q1.
They will get it, but first must make several forecasts about why they are bullish crude.
All they do is lie to us 24/7. The only thing you can be sure is not true is whatever THEY tell us. You can scratch that off the list. http://www.thetruthaboutthelaw.com/yes-they-constantly-lie-to-you-learn-...
there are no conspiracy theories..just crimes.
The question is, of course, where is GS placing its bets? Model's are just formalized guesses, but what happens when the variables you use aren't the ones you really should be watching. Everybody has chips in the game and are pushing to win the pot, whether it helps or kills Greece is merely an unimportant side effect.....
ECb will release 7.2bn and they are confident greece will be able to pay 1.5 bn payment. Sure, anyone could do that.
Hell, I'll see that and raise 'em .5bn (release 7.2bn to me and I'll make a 2bn payment).
I don't know about all of this shit especially with quadruple reserve psychology and game theorists dominating the eurozone landscape.
What I DO KNOW, is if Mccain shows up in Greece, GTFO.
there's the EURUSD parity, and there's the rate within euroland issue. If one forgets the "greeks are lazy and germans virtuous" nonsense, the driver to the souvereign crisis was the interest rates set by the ECB : too high for Germany, that consistently had below par inflation thanks (?) to Schroeder's reforms, too low for Spain, Ireland, Greece, which had above par inflation, and blew bubbles in housing or in the state's own budget. To introduce the possibility that one country can leave the euro would mean that interest rates will be lower (hence fueling speculation) in the best-performing countries and higher (stopping any such speculation) in the lower-performing countries through fear of exit.
This would make the euro one step closer to what the gold system once was...
Let us reminiscence on what surely must have been a fable..called; Maastricht Fable..
"The treaty led to the creation of the euro. One of the obligations of the treaty for the members was to keep "sound fiscal policies, with debt limited to 60% of GDP and annual deficits no greater than 3% of GDP."
We might consider re-writing a line or two but let's stick with just this one: ...with debt limited to increase by not more then 60% per annum of GDP." I believe we are closer to this statement then to the statement in the fable itself.
.
And printing more Euro's to support Greece will not send the Euro down? Looks like a damned if you do, damned if you don't. Long euro doesn't seem like a good idea either way.
Fuck you squid.
OMG the bankers are going to print. Whoopie, we don't have to worry about the DHS for another day.
The game goes on. Until it ends, painfully.
I posted this earlier this morning beneath another Greece-centric article, but may be even more relevant with respect to the current item and worth another go-around:
OK, I have a crazy theory: All this can-kicking is deliberate on both sides --not because of the reasons everyone thinks they know, but because Russia (& co.)wants Europe as a whole to join the Eurasian Economic Union (which was kick-started in May) without provoking the West with any specific incident along the way ---such as a complete schism between Greece, Europe and the US, in which Greece comes to appear to be a satellite nation of Russia, similar in form and function to the former USSR, while Russia gains such items as new naval port facilities in Greece, etc., etc. Naturally, Russia is strongly interested in such things --but there's a bigger geopolitical game afoot. In brief, virtually every nation on Earth now wants to get out from under the chaotic and destructive influence of the US Neocon Empire of Perpetual War and Looting. And this is probably nowhere more true now than in Europe, whose common currency and fundamental integrity is under continuous attack by its --supposedly-- strongest ally, who has been diligently at work setting the euro (a competing global reserve currency) up for a fall. Moreover, Europe already knows the petrodollar system is already doomed, and may not even last out the year. Both Greece and Europe are therefore anticipating huge changes in the near future and are, in spite of all appearances to the contrary, working with Russia towards a fundamental repositioning of global geopolitics.
Having said this much, I will still say that, while I think the euro will survive the transition, the EU will not --at least in its present form.
Anyway, this is what I was thinking on my second cup of coffee...
Addendum: I just ran across this little item which may help fill in some more of the blanks. Can't speak for the rest of the website.
http://www.secretsofthefed.com/eurasian-economic-union-trade-zone-schedu...
Rubbish. The sort of schism you imagine is simply not there between the western powers, in policies, in diplomacy, in economics or trade, in finance, or in military links in the alliance.
You have simply been reading too much echo-chamber confirmation-bias orientating 'stuff' online and ignoring the actual situation as it is. The Western world is not spitting apart, and it is not going to, any decade soon. You have simply swallowed someone's fantasy and figments. You can fight the actual situation as it really is all you want, with such BS, but it will change nothing, as such is not going to be happening.
Process that and move on.
Thanks for the laugh : ) --but "rebuttals" comprised of nothing but expressions of denial in total defense of the status quo are just meaningless troll-trash.
Pretty rich, considering you prefixed your comment with this:
I defended and promoted nothing. I pointed out that your alledge schism isn't there.
The crazy thing is that it is there, just not highly visible. The unity seems strong with the banks, militaries, and, for the most part, governments. As for the people, maybe not so much. New governments in Spain and France might drastically change things to make such a schism more visible.
Who knows what will happen. I'm sure a lot of people could not imagine WWI in 1913.
I agree with your view. The spying thing put plenty of people off Washington, plus the general fuckup of MENA as well, and resulting problems for Europe. But Europe was every bit as much to blame for the MENA mess.
edit: during the cold war France was basically communist and had fairly poor relations with Washington for much of the time.
Yep, rubbish. It imagines the world thinks of the US like the liberals here at home imagine us, which is not the case. Foreigners hate the US for what we stand for, not our military behavior. Our enemies respect ONLY our military behavior, they see our foreign wars just like we want them to see them: Destroying our enemies.
Most of them just hate our decadence and freedoms, not the fact we take wars to our enemies. They hate christians, that is in common with domestic liberals.
Russia and china are just typical socialist countries trying to aggregate power - they don't really work on hate. Just want to aggregate control, as most humans and, especially liberals, do.
That's closer to it. Though I would say Russia in many ways conveys hate sentiment, or at least a severe case of jealousy and insecurity about itself. But Yeah, for China it's more a case of practical objectives than hate sentiments.
hahahaha.. "They hate us for our freedoms." Now where have we all heard that before??
not done sipping your koolaid soda ¿
".....with reportedly large new physical deposits of gold in their coffers, the EU has announced it will abandon Washington and join the Eurasian Economic Union. Chinese military aircraft have been unloading sealed boxes in each EU capital."
Bath House, engaged in an underage homo/crack party, could not be reached for comment.
You mean all EU state's public and private debt bubble just disappears, if Greece defaults?
EU is 'saved'?
My butt ... the end of the beginning.
GS: "Soon we will Rule The World, Pinky!"
If all of this above amounts to GS talking their book, then they must be in some serious shit, if the euro rises instead.
I call BS!
'they' will not let the Euro (or any of the big currencies) slide too far as the wheels will come off if they do. as everyone here knows its a game of devaluation shared among the big players - each taking turns to tank their currency and to try and encourage that elusive deflation.
If 'they' were to devalue one currency too far, then the playing field turns into a minefield, and everyone is then on a 'long enough timelime'- no survivors!
for that reason alone (and excepting some major black swan like Grexit) the euro will never be let go below parity as the unforseen consequences would be unmanageable.
Assuming you mean they as in the CBs... why would they want to encourage deflation?
The transformation of the Japanese economy from powerhouse when all finance was controlled by the ministry of finance to broke when it gave into American institutions like Goldman Sachs and their 'philosophy' in the 1990s should have been a lesson to all that institutions like GS are the kiss of death.
Japan was fucked long before the 90's.
In so many ways...
the other marshall plan....
...
Before the gaijin
there was
Japan...
Wasn't it Goldman who helped lay the lies to get Greece to join the Euro, then lied to help Greece get the loans, then lied to get Greece to go down the deflationary death spiral thus far. Regardless of state borrowing, I was in Greece in like 2005 and the new european banks had started giving cheap loans and creit cards out and business then were suffering trying to repay everything, this was a country which went from drachma austerity and enfored prudence to free money 24/7 and everyone went mad. What wasc criminal is that the banks got bailed out by taxpayers, and were laughing all the way
GS knew they could reap rewards in the future, Joe Greek guy be damned.