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The Mystery Of The "Missing" Inflation Solved: Record Number Of US Renters Can't Afford Housing
Looking at a long-term chart of the BLS' core CPI chart or the Fed's preferred inflation metric, the Core PCE, reveals that the US is patiently trudging below the Fed's goalseeked goal of roughly 2% inflation per year. Even when stripping out just the "shelter" component of CPI reveals inflation that is barely higher at just under a 3% annual increase.
Of course, by now everyone knows that the artificially suppressed, "hedonically-modified" and seasonally-adjusted inflationary readings is what has permitted the Fed to not only grow its balance sheet to $4.5 trillion but to keep rates at 0% for 8 years. Because "how will the economy recover if there is no broad inflation", the Keynesian brains in the ivory tower scream, demanding more, more, more easing just to push inflation higher.
There is only one problem with this: it is all a lie - just ask any average American whose cost of living has soared in the past decade.
Still, with reality diverging so massively from the government's official data, reality just had to be wrong somehow.
Turns out reality was right all along, as revealed by the latest "State of the Nation's Housing" report released by the Center for Housing Studies at Harvard, which showed that while inflation among most products and services may indeed be roughly as the Fed and BLS represent it, when it comes to rent - that most fundamental of staple costs - things have never been worse.
According to the report, for American renters 2013 marked another year with a record-high number of cost burdened households - those paying more than 30 percent of income for housing. In the United States, 20.7 million renter households (49.0 percent) were cost burdened in 2013.
It gets worse: a whopping 11.2 million, or more than a quarter of all renter households, had "severe cost burdens, paying more than half of income for housing." The median US renter household earned $32,700 in 2013 and spent $900 per month on housing costs. Renter housing costs are gross rents, which include contract rents and utilities.
From the report:
Over the span of just 10 years, the share of renters aged 25–34 with cost burdens (paying more than 30 percent of their incomes for housing) increased from 40 percent to 46 percent, while the share with severe burdens (paying more than 50 percent of income) rose from 19 percent to 23 percent. During roughly the same period, the share of renters aged 25–34 with student loan debt jumped from 30 percent in 2004 to 41 percent in 2013, with the average amount of debt up 50 percent, to $30,700.
In other words, the reason why American consumers are caught in a state of near-permanent spending depression is simple: almost half of all renters can barely afford to splurge as they are spending 30% of their income just to cover rent, a number which surges to more than half of all income for a quarter of all renting households, of which increasingly more are Millennials... Millennials whose balance sheet liabilites include over $1 trillion in student debt.
Of course, the reason for this dramatic surge in rents has been extensively documented on this website in the past: with housing affordability plunging and stringent credit standards (at least until the auto subprime bubble 2.0 shifts back into housing) and the national homeownership rate plunging back to 1993 levels for most...
... a number that is kept artificially inflated by the 65 and over age group.
... this has forced an unprecedented number of American households to seek shelter, no pun intended, in the relatively cheaper confines of a rental unit.
And we do mean relatively: on an absolute basis, asking rents across the US have never been higher:
So as more Americans are forced into a limited number of rental units, prices have exploded at a far greater pace than what is officially reported in th shelter or core CPI metric, for all - but especially for those in the lower income buckets: as seen in the lower right chart, the rental "cost burden" of households making under $30,000 is the higest ever, at well over 70%!
But nowhere is the mystery of the "missing" inflation more obvious than in the following interactive map showing that in virtually all major seaboard metro areas, including the major cities in California, New York, and Florida, the number of households with a cost burden is 50% or higher.
Click on the interactive map below to find just how much of their income households in your region pay just to have a roof above their heads.
So the next time someone, usually either a government bureaucrat or a reporter/drama major masquerading as an "economist" tells you there is no inflation, just show them this map and ask how much of their after tax income do they spend on rent.
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Housing costs are REALLY REALLY low for me...
....because
I....
Live in a van down by the river!
Good thing you don't have a boat! I've heard that it's not safe to go into the water!
As long as you aint costing me anything, Good for You!
Jus think of all the stress avoided by OWNING the bullshit dream.
"The Mystery Of The "Missing" Inflation Solved: Record Number Of US Renters Can't Afford Housing"
Can one get a gun safe for a cardboard box?
Liberty is a demand. Tyranny is submission..
The sheeple sleep, until they have no where to sleep.
or nothing to eat.
or no fiat to buy something to eat.
or nobody else to eat.
So as more Americans are forced into a limited number of rental units, prices have exploded at a far greater pace than what is officially reported in th shelter or core CPI metric, for all - but especially for those in the lower income buckets: as seen in the lower right chart, the rental "cost burden" of households making under $30,000 is the higest ever, at well over 70%!"
It gets worse than that.
It would be eye popping to see what the renter density per 1000 square foot is today, relative to, say, 2008.
Not only are folks forced to rent shelter, a considerable number can't even afford to rent their OWN space. I've noticed substantial increases, over the recent years, in the number of vehicles parked around rentals, well beyond what was originally intended by the builder.
m
Most fail to realize the trend started to be pushed back in the early 70s or so when women were given their "freedom" to work. All but a cover (not that I don't think that women should be able to do these things, just that I hate all the lies) for increasing household income in order to pay more and more for housing costs and "consumer goods." All too often we fail to miss things until their right there knocking on our doors...
Yes, inflation does not exist in the US. I just went to the grocery store and can attest to the fact that the 4 pound bag of suger that I purchased today is the exact same price as the 5 pound bag of sugar that I bought last year. I also purchased a 12 ounce pound of bacon.
How about a 50 ounce half gallon of ice cream?
Oops...most of what Breyers sells now is no longer made of cream, but "frozen dairy dessert"...
http://www.mouseprint.org/2013/01/21/breyers-converts-ice-creams-to-froz...
Escrow companies make the money with zero risk.
All of this is just "noise".
Long homeless shelters and food banks.
Long multi-million dollar drunk tanks for drunks coming off 6th Street:
http://kxan.com/2014/03/20/austin-city-council-to-consider-sobriety-center/
Figure 1: You're looking at a Fed and government induced bubble. I think we're back to where we need to be. Not everyone gets a trophy.
Barne Frank chewing on his gay lovers cock selling subprime mortgage deals too back drop AIG insurance fraud. HAMP is the other scam walking on Fannie Mae cruches
My question is - will the dollar truly collapse {say loss of 1/2 your purchasing power in under 6 months} or can TPTB find ways to continue the slow decline of the FRN, even if the country's intellectual and moral decline accelerates?
record number of americans on food stamps, record number on section 8. take those people out of the market and average rent costs go up
so how come all these rental apartments are going up everywhere it seems?? I mean one bedroom apartments that start around $1850 a month on Long Island or in North or Central Jersey at least 2 hours from Manhattan. It is worse in Cambridge MA & Somerville, both areas have become these antisanal stuffy douchbag yuppie nabes where mommy & daddy is paying. These people for some people suck to hang out with, ever 'hang with them ' at a bar all they want to talk about is some yuppie team sport like Crossfit or the new 'Thule' Bike rack they got for their Prius. I actually laugh when I see one getting mugged in the up & coming neighborhoods of NYC
Yea...and with all the extra taxes added for school bonds, jail bonds, road and bridges bonds etc...on property taxes.....homeowners at least get their "homestead exemptions".....commercial property owners and their renters do not.......the poor once again bare the brunt of inflation....
Notice how the statisticians fail to acknowledge the banks' role in keep prices artificially inflated. If Obango knew fuckall about anything, if he was serious about straightening the real estate market out, he would give the banks six months to dump all the residential properties they are currently holding onto the market. Any properties that arent dumped on the market, Obango should require banks to start paying some hefty fucking monthly fines. The banks were given their trillions of dollars in funny money, now its time for the bloodsuckers to start giving back.
ah ha! Real inflation. But the Fed is way off.
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/02/11/fed-inflation-target-is-abnormal/
Here is a solution.
http://michaelekelley.com/2015/03/27/the-kelley-monetary-policy-rule/
Disturbing statistics, but what's the percentage of homeowners facing severe cost burdens? I imagine a smaller percentage, but still a significant one which constitutes millions of households and tens of millions of individuals.
Regarding rent: Most people who rent (not all, but as a rule of thumb) are deficient in other areas of their financial lives: shitty job, low/no education, poor credit, horrible spending habits, etc.
Classic cart before the horse scenario. It's not that people are poor because they pay exorbitant rents, its that people rent because they have little other choice.
Is 37 your IQ? 50% of the folks in Houston rent. Why? Because in 22 months their job assignment will have them in Washington State or Colorado ect. Half my clients rent because they go where ever their job takes them and they are all must be poor chemists, engineers, and geologists.
I think your thumb is broken.
Municipalities keep raising taxes to pay for bloated public pensions.
Landlords just pass the cost to the renters. Housing prices go up, so do rents.
The Federal Reserve's academic goal of trying to trigger inflation is working. They'll just keep denying it while squeezing the small people.
Doesn't bother the 1%ers, so it doesn't matter.
Have you ever typed a response to the hedge .... and then thought...nahhh dont want to put that in writing... I have... and just did... guess they won
As long as wall street and the stock (cock) market are at record imaginary numbers and more towel heads are being blown to pieces, fuck the inflation, rising cost of rent, and crumbling infrastructure in the real world back home.
Thanks Obomba!
It isn't just housing either, there are other cost slowly creeping up. Things that most people don't buy like paint, lumber and even cord wood.
All I know is that I used to be able to spend more time and money on fixing up the house. Now I'm either working longer to pay the bills or I'm collapsing at the lumberyard counter over sticker price.
I'm thinking about buying some surplus shipping containers, moving them onto my land and renting them out.
Funny you should say that! During the last census bull crap, a lady came by and left a letter on the door of my husband's workshop. It's just a standard HomeDepot plywood workshop sitting across from the patio. The only thing half decent about it is the old curtains I put up to keep the sun out. That stupid lady came back 3 times. I watched from my kitchen window as she pounded on the workshop door trying to find out how many people lived in there! LMAO!
Inflation is hidden. Look around you what we are buying is worthless or useless shit for ten times what's worth, conditioned for rat race by propaganda of success. Cereal cost 50 cents to produce sold for $5. But nominal inflation is not as important. The real inflation that hurts our budgets is running out of control.
Very simple explanation why we may have high real inflation with nominal prices stagnating or falling, I recommend a read at:
https://contrarianopinion.wordpress.com/2015/01/29/invisible-hand-and-ot...
"It isn't just housing either, there are other cost slowly creeping up. Things that most people don't buy like paint, lumber and even cord wood."
The Federal Reserve and the Statistician people in Washington will just lie about the inflation so they don't have to increase the CPI.
Just denying there is inflation allows them to keep rates at 0% and increase inflation more.
Inflating debt away is the name of their game.
I know they exclude food and energy, but I cannot understand how they are ooking at rental prices and even home prices and conclude that there is no inflation. Especially when you look at other government reports that boast how nice it is to see home prices climb 5 to 10% each year.
Oh just fuck it, no one cares but us. Im going to take a shit
SH
Fiber is cheap and pleasant
I do not know zerohedge when will you accept the advent of The Plan B. The cruel math of The Plan B is know even to kids in the so called third world countries, but no adult anywhere understands it fully well. Western economists will only get it once we are all third world. By then therre won't be any point understanding it anyways.
http://just-a-thought-from-thinair.blogspot.com/
High rent .... keeps the little people .... from having too much spare cash .... to bid up the price .... of proletarian staples .... like the ubiquitous, monkey friendly banana !
Cool. Foreign and domestic vulture funds "fix" the housing economy via massive REO buying of "distressed" properties which are then turned into rentals with rates jacked up, because hey, when you need a place to LIVE, you'll pay damn near what it costs to EAT. Then you're broke, vulnerable, and compromised.
The good news is we have a half-black president who really sympathizes with the "common folk" so he'll make sure we don't all get totally fucked in the ass while paying more for everything and continuing to fund all the shitty mistakes, miscalculations and unchecked greed of the fuckers that so willingly shoveled endless piles of steaming shit on us in the name of profits.
The remaining 21 working people in the U.S. that actually have a few extra coins in the bank are now labeled with a scarlet "S" for "stingy!!!!" since they aren't out BUYING more cheap chinese shit.
Fuck. Everything.
Bananas, bananas .... the proletarian treat .... the more they eat .... the more they tweet .... the more they tweet .... the better they feel .... so let them eat bananas .... on their oat meal ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad World Tour
John Kerry has stopped the Iran nuclear program dead in it's tracks .... by giving them equipment .... to make Hydrogen Bombs !
Rents have never been higher...
I own a triplex and live in one unit. Over the last 3 years my insurance doubled. I thought that insane but after shopping no other broker could find a cheaper rate.
I now pay each month for water and sewer what I used to pay for ONE YEAR.
I cannot sell it because, like so many I thought its value would rise. But it's value is about 60% now of what it was in 2007. I cannot sell because of the depreciation recapture tax, I would owe $25 grand (wihch is pretty much my equity, I'm sad to say) for that alone, plus state capital gains (remember I may owe a lot on it but it's basis = zero, so it's 100% taxable.
During the first 30 years I have owned it I have, not once, called the police.
During the last 30 years I have called 911 three times.
A felllow named Perrin Tellock will graduate from Antioch New England University this June as a PhD in Psychology. He defrauded me openly and with callous disregard. Maybe he will be the Psychologist at the school your kids or grandkids go to? Formerly he was in a suburb of Boston. (Remember truth is the absolute defense against a claim of defamation, he knows who I am--bring it on Tellock).
Other tenants have lost their jobs since 2008 and leave in arrears so now, if a tenant is one day late on rent I serve them a state mandated demand for rent. I must follow state rules including becoming lead certified which I have done, at a cost of $800. I must follow slow laborious rules to evict a tenant.
The state of NH has a website that really ought to be named: "How to screw your landlord."
Hey, I'm still above water.. and I'll admit I made my own mistakes,but God how I wish I could (without taking a bloodbath) get out of renting.
Ten years ago I'd say: "Owning rental units is a good idea."
Today I'll say: "Run, it's not worth it."
Just my two cents.
"Change you can count on." He just forgot to mention that CHANGE was going into his and his buddies pockets.
For about 20 years, I sold term life insurance and IRAs in MA via home visits. Even back then (80/90's), I would hear rental horror stories from landlord customers of mine. I vowed to never own rental units in states like MA - and I'm glad I stuck to that. Right now, I own (and live-in) a modest split-level ranch. And even though the basement is nicely finished, it's below grade and it's not counted as living space in the tax assessment. My RE taxes are less than $400 a month and mortgage is only $1300 (almost paid). For less than the rental of a decent 2-bedroom apartment in Boston, I live in the 'burbs and have a nice house and yard. By buying small, I avoided the need to own a multi-family. I strongly urge all working people do own the least amount of house they can tolerate. Excess municipal pensions have driven RE taxes to exorbitant amounts. And personally, I am not interested in subsidizing cushy retirements for public workers.
This dbag?
https://www.linkedin.com/pub/perrin-tellock/14/724/9a1
Guess what? This article understates this phenomenon. Know why? Because most statistic don't count HOA payments as expenses. True, this doesn't apply to "renters", but enormous numbers of "owners" (both those paying their mortgages and those who paid cash) are paying enormously elevated monthly and yearly HOA fees.
Back 7 years ago before I "got the hell outta dodge", I briefly considered buying a condo on Kaui. I just noticed that exact same condo is for sale now. What I noticed most wasn't the price (which was ridiculous), but the monthly HOA fees. These fees are now 6 times higher than they were 7 years ago! Those who "paid cash" for those condos 7 years ago now pay more for HOA fees than they would have paid for mortgage payments, and almost what they'd pay to rent those condos --- because many owners paid cash and now just need to generate enough revenue to pay the freaking HOA fees!!!
The worst private human predators have taken a page from those human predators who "run" the government and large organizations. They now take over HOA organizations and run them with the exact same philosophy as top executives of huge corporations. They raise the fees endlessly, they "hire" friends, family and whatever fellow predators will give them the largest kickbacks on fake work performed, and practice every scam in the books. And many of them become multimillionaires without holding a job via the fees, scams and kickbacks they practice.
The entire scam that is western uncivilization is eating itself from the inside out. When this Titantic goes down, anyone who refused to "get the hell outta dodge" will regret doing so in spades.
Glad I moved somewhere I have no HOA, no loans, no property tax, no fees, nobody who gets a single penny out of me "just because I'm alive", and nobody to tell me what I must do or not do. What a concept, eh?
HOA is worse.
Not only do their fees go past reasonable, they are wannabe Nazis. Some fellow homeowner who is dominated by everything in life comes into a position of power and delights into mandating how you live.
I won't have anything to do with anything that has an HOA. As a matter of fact, after having owned some nice properties in my life, some paid for, through this exercise called living I lost them. I live in a motorhome, it is paid for and has all the conveniences of a home, just smaller is all.
I am free of HOA, property taxes, laws which tell me what I can or can not do on my property.
I don't have to look after a lawn. I can park by the river where no one is and enjoy nature. I am self sufficent, have internet by way of cell phone hot spot and work where I please.
Hey, how come Martha's Vineyard isn't color coded red? It more than qualifies for that designation being the second poorest county in Massachusetts. The food bank here is mobbed every time I've been there. And we just can't wait for Obummer to get here for his summer vacation so we can be inconvienced even more.
The talking heads on MSM were saying it's all good today because a poll of millenials found that millenials would like to buy real estate in the future so the upside is unlimitied.
I'd like to buy a heliocopter, so be sure and add that in the blue sky numbers.
With all the problems the Fed and State Environmentalists have thrown another cost on the "Home Owner" They have mandated that if you have a sprinkler system or a private well you must install a valve that prevents backflow. This will cost many from $500 to $1000.
And the sad thing is they cannot prove one instance that a backflow problem from a residence has ever harmed any one.You either comply or they shut off your water. Some of these people have had wells for fifty years. Doesn't matter. EVEN IF THE WELL IS NOT CONNECTED TO THEIR SUPPLY. They say you might hook it up sometime in the future.
What's really comical is they are the ones putting poison in the drinking water (Fluoride) and they are afraid my well will contaminate their water. I say "their water" because that is the way they act. They went from a public water distributor to an Authority.
Like all utilities, they used your money and your credit to build their infrastructure. Then, all of a sudden, their an Authority and claim the water.
There is no such thing as ownership of anything in the USSA. If it can be taken from you or if it can be denied to you then you don't own it.
There are only two things you can control: Your attitude and your activity. Everything else, every other form of Be, Do or Own, can be interfered with such that you can be blocked. In fact, even activity can be blocked: But not attitude. Now go forth son, and win: www.x234.com/book
I don't think anyone should be ashamed to live with family or extended family or even rent a room in a friend's house. I think the so-called American Dream was an invention of some Madison Avenue advertising types, to get as many people as possible to spend as much money as possible on as much stuff as possible. Houses are high-maintenance high-tax high-recurring-cost possessions. Education, tools, and work experience are investments, when they increase your income.
Have to agree with the other posts. Monthly rents should have decreased in line with lower interest rates but out-of-line increases in local property taxes and insurance, not to mention HOA fees, have stripped those potential savings to zero. At a 2-3% cost of borroiwng today, monthly rent vs. purchase carrying charges are roughly equivilent, and out of control local muncipal property taxes and escalating insurance are to blame.
Having "owned" (paying a mortagage, taxes and upkeep) on a house for about 10 years and then switching to renting, let me offer some Rules for Renters:
1. Rent from a private owner - the older the better - they are looking for a long term stable rental income.
2. Rent from a owner that has a low cost basis (not someone that just bought the house with an ARM) - they can absorb the cost of maint. and tax increases - at least for a while.
3. Pay your rent a week early (once I paid so early that the landlord called to ask me if it was ok to cash the check)
4. Don't hassle your landlord with small issues - fix them yourself (that is what previously owning a home taught me)
5. Think of the rented property as an asset that you are trying to protect for your landlord - call them on the big things - roof leaking, pumbing issues, etc.
6. Change the rental dynamic from a transaction to a relationship. They may be thinking about what happens when the SHTF. Or having to find someone to rent to that is not going to tear up their place if you move out.
7. Keep ample cash on hand to cover deposit on next rental should you decide to move.
Renting from "Friends" doesn't count. Almost rented from a "friend" who I eventually found out was behind on the mortgage and was going to use our 2xmonths rent deposit to catch up (see rules #1 and #2). If we took the deal we would have most likely lost the deposit and would be kicked out by the mortage holder as the property eventually went into foreclosure.
Experience speaks here ... couldn't agree more. About the deposit : can be blocked by law on a separate account which can only be released when both parties agree when you move out. This avoids the owner draining the cash for solving HIS problems leaving you ( the renter ) in the cold.
socal , may I call you an idiot? one rule in renting ..never pay.
1.find an empty home in a good neighborhood and move in and change the locks..it will take yrs to get you out and you live rent free.
now go out and find that million dollar foreclosure.
Experience speaks here ... couldn't agree more. About the deposit : can be blocked by law on a separate account which can only be released when both parties agree when you move out. This avoids the owner draining the cash for solving HIS problems leaving you ( the renter ) in the cold.
Everything you said, execept the last comment, was true and worthwhile. On the last point: If you paid rent to the owner and he got booted, the bank can't boot you until your pre-paid rent is used-up; or unless the lender makes you whole. Your rent buys a tenancy and that can't be revoked wihtout compensation.
record number can not afford FOOD let alone housing
15% of americans are on food stamps
Simple to solve this : do like the European political overpaid socialist morons - import illiterate muslims and blacks by the millions and give them everthing for FREE ; especially voting rights, that keeps these corrupt morons re-elected. If your own white people no longer vote for the socialists because of their corrupt policies, just replace the people. C'est la lutte finale !!
http://geopoliticainternazionale.blogfree.net/?t=5147970
Revolution Color in Armenia ? CIA ? Mossad ? Maidan Armenian ?
After the TARP bailout, we realized that they royally messed up the housing industry, and that everything was going to get VERY expensive.
Then, "they" started the full on assault with lowering interest rates while ripping off the consumer with fraudulent mortgage docs, credit card account tricks, increased corporate (and govt.) fees, rising taxes, etc. Add in QEinfinity, and what do you think? Who is in charge (or who is "in the club")? I knew it wasn't us, so.... we voted with our feet, and GTFO (got the f*ck out).
What other options do you have?
Live within the system, change the system, or GTFO.
The western system isn't going to change if they can remain in control.
I am certain another factor here is all the foreclosed properties that have been bought on the cheap by private equity. The rentals are bundled up into our old friends 'securities' and sold as investment products. I am sure they are squeezing every drop of rent out and forcing average rents up by weight of their numbers in the market.
I am certain another factor here is all the foreclosed properties that have been bought on the cheap by private equity. The rentals are bundled up into our old friends 'securities' and sold as investment products. I am sure they are squeezing every drop of rent out and forcing average rents up by weight of their numbers in the market.
There once was a slumlord named Blackrock.
FFS I'm so fed up with all this bullshit...Ireland took the opposite direction to Greece yet the problems remain (just under the surface). The euro project is doomed but it will limp on for years crisis after crisis dragging everyone down with it.
BUT ITS NOT JUST THE EURO... ITS ALL FIAT CURRENCY.. ITS REACHED THE END OF THE ROAD...
Reading ZH convinced me to own gold to try remove myself from this madness as best I could but like nearly everybody I had F..K all extra cash to convert into bullion.
6 months ago I had no cash and no gold and a shed load of credit card debt.. Now I have a some extra cash.. a few ounces of gold... and I'm rid of the dreaded credit card debt..all from reading Zero Hedge and its commentators, taking that knowledge and doing something with it!!! thanks guys I owe you.
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Great - sign me up. I'll work 80 hours a week as your downline, so you can get overrides. Or, on second thought, I'll keep running my own small business, work reasonable hours, and enjoy life.
Use Zillow Rents to play around with areas you frequent -- you'll be positively shocked. If there are jobs to be had, units will be scarce and sky high. No jobs and everyone on SS disability? Yeah, rents less than 50% of median take home income, which, again, exactly no one has in these areas. Were it not for cheap drugs, gaming consoles, and Net porn the proles would be marching in the streets.
No real discussion here about % of increase. Inflation means an increase in price year over year. So all this article does is discuss the % of income people are spending on rent not an increase in price year over year.