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Presented with little comment aside to ask - why does anyone listen to these idiots anyway?
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Bullish!
Did you get a permit from the Ministry of Truth to say that?
bullishit
Kinda what I meant ;)
is the population growing at more than 0.2% ?? if so the GDP per person is dropping.
We are simply increasing our efficiencies...living on less, the new trend. Its called a recession....we call it a longer depression.
Christina Roehmer called it "4% GDP Growth...sustainable and solid...."
Missed it by that much...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPwrodxghrw
… but they get an “A” for optimism !
Which includes the new "Double Seasonal adjustment for residual effects", which is the new normal fudge factor. Any number which appears bad will be double adjusted. Then if it still looks bad, Triple adjusted and so on. Meanwhile, in a n economy which comprises 70% consumption and with declining net real disposable income and real consumer prices rising by double digits, it isn't rocket science to see why GDP will NOT get back to trend growth.
in a n economy..??
Typo!? my ass!! That's racist. You just made the list, buddy.
Apparently we are all on the list to get wacked...
http://galeinnes.blogspot.com/2015/06/how-wealthy-keep-everyone-poor.html
The penalty for telling too much truth without a permit has been raised to 30 days in the electric chair.
People look at these charts and want change. But no one will vote for Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. They're the only two candidates who will actually change things. So most of you people just want more of the same old thing.
I'm guessing the two downvotes you've received so far are only the beginning of the tsunami.
You nailed it but the skunk never showed up, yeah, losers!!
I wonder what % of GDP is EBT spending? I don't think I've seen that particular stat. Would be interesting to know.
Walmart is sustained by ebt purchases. Was a doosy when I saw the Dollar Tree store chain get ebt.
Absolutely! Take EBT sales out of Walmart's equation and revenues and profits would plummet. Taxpayer subsidized profits.
Fucken-A-Right Dawg!
If the welfare system were a detriment to corporate profits, it would be ended in heartbeat; just like that porous southern border...
WTF?! They only missed by a few percentage points!
You got it WonderDawg. Taxpayer also subsidizes Walmart part-time minimum wage employees. Conveniently provide them with the application form. True free market.
Walmart likely takes in the most food stamp dollars—an estimated 18 percent last year, according to leaked comments from a company vice president at a private dinner last fall, which Walmart later confirmed. That sum would amount to $13 billion, or about 4 percent of Walmart’s total U.S. sales.
It's about .45% of GDP, down from an all time high of approximately .5% in 2011.
http://www.cbpp.org/research/snap-costs-declining-expected-to-fall-much-...
@Ness. Lol, I did notice the typo but today the ZH Edit function is cutting off very quickly...
Damn that Dave Ramsey. Damn that man!
Why?
Tyler, a plastic frisbee autographed by the CNBC morning crew is on the way... You nailed the number!
CNBC morning crew frisbee?
Seems to be more like a boomerang of BS that is puked out from that CNBS crew...
LOL. I'd love to know why explained by you.
I have my own conclusions of Dave Ramsey. The man never mentions precious metals, but who does anymore. It's the best kept secret.
Secrets are only so because people speak not of them, you dolt.
Granted, the Evil Banksters will not stop their PM price supression w/in any ZH reader's life span.
I'm not the one with the fucking radio show moron, or I'd spill the beans and be quickly removed from the microphone.
In our lifespan or our great grandchildren's it doesn't matter. Mope on muppet.
If that guy doesn't have a shitload of gold and silver I'm a monkeys uncle. He might talk it down but he is not stupid. I appreciate what he is doing to get people out of debt but he has talked about his gun collection (probably a lot more extensive than you would guess) and he puts out the word regarding all these corrupt banks and pay-day lenders out to steal what little money some people have. If really pressed I would bet he would tell you he lost it in a boating accident.
Yeah, Jesus and investing in the stock market is going to save you. The markets are not a casino. The rule-of-law still exists for the little people. Pray and save and invest and youj'll be fine. It's as if 2001 and 2008 never happened.
Thanks a lot Dave!
Nailgun defense training? Highrise jump defense training? Fitness room accident defense training? Radioactive poisoning defense training? Aliens abduction defense training? Rapture defense training? You should be a true badass dude :) ...
Bicycle defense training
Joe LaVorgna, this one is for you. Sincerely, the best nail gun maker.
More Quantitative Easing is back on the table. The U.S. will go from ZIRP to NIRP. Must force those pesky savers to spend money on cheap, foreign manufactured goods. The highly praised service economy is failing. We cannot grow GDP by flipping burgers to each other and litigating ourselves into prosperity.
QE never stopped. You must mean MORE QE.
Upside down hockey stick. Everything's upside down, fits well with the times.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-24/stocks-slide-fed-warns-not-prep...
What about serving drinks to each other? NIRP definitely on the table now
It's all good. Don't you know you can just borrow your way out of debt?
The best way to weaponize a currency and destroy economies is to own them.
Since GDP just measures the volume of transactions in a given period we actually coud flip our way out of this.
All we have to do is get some money into the hands of people! That's the last thing anyone in power really wants to do.
Thank goodnes for the EBTs at least we are keeping people alive.
Invert the chart and you have real GDP - Gross Domestic Propaganda
...which corresponds to a strong and sustainable trend of reverse growth.
There is only ONE reason why the FED hasn't started raising interest rates yet: when they do it will be followed by a number of successive increases like the last time...
That is One. Flaccid. Bull.
the data.. the data..
no QE though which is just as "bad" as a rate hike
Chinese already squirming and begging US Fed to do something, anything to stimulate.... LOL
Um...
Green-ish shoots?
WTF? ZIRP and counterfeiting doesn't create sustainable growth?
I'm shocked I tell you, shocked!
Oh, there's growth alright. It's just under the surface, and it's metastasized.
Metastasize Me!
That chart made me LOL.
Because they're the professionals looking out for our best interest and in no way have anything to sell us.
the same retards expect 2.9-3.1% in Q2. its just so funny. all these "genius" ivy league douches that have absolutley no clue about anything.
If they were such 'idiots' how could they 'nail it' so often?
Duh.
Because they are much dumber than the average, or else they would have guessed it right about half the times...
You're being sarchastic? The Fed. just admitted they were off by over 1.00% for Q-1 '15, and had to TRIPLE REVISE the number.
Paul Krugtard is locked in his fucking "cat cave" because he's run out of windows to break.
You don't think that they're making a killing by releasing "information" that they know isn't true?
In addition to "absolutely no clue" they have:
absolutely no integrity
absolutely no morality
absolutely no regret for the part they are playing (usefull idiots) in the destruction of a nation and it's people.
Do we have enough ropes and stout lamp posts for all these fuckers who are part of these criminal activities?
Add to the list that they absolutely don't give a shit if you see through their lies any more. The combination of the memory hole and a no-consequences-ever environment virtually assures this.
At this rate we won't have the money to buy the rope so start hoarding now
I think you r being too hard on these assholes. They have to come up with this shit so that their associates can peddle their wares to the sheeple. The alternative is unemployment or fortune telling along the Atlantic City boardwalk.
"Why does anyone listen to these idiots anyway?"
Because it is the closest thing to lube that we get in this economic rape camp called a country, so shut the fuck up already, before they take even that away!
And the winner for "Post of the Day?!?...
EE
Dupe
"Trust me. You want the spit" Charlie Harper
Don't worry the new GDP calculations will show the "consensus" was right all along.
The reason why humans listen to these idiot soothsayers is the same since the cavemen roamed the world.
Humans don't like the uncertainioty of the future so we're all desperate to hear what people say who propose they're 'experts' in forecasting the future.
Human fraility basically. We're all guilty of it in some form or another.
....and, we only want to hear good news.
Looks like my personal spending budget. However when I factor in inflation, it certainly looks more impressive. I can't wait until it crosses the X axis.
Miffed;-)
Those are US GDP data with fake CPI data. If you plug in real inflation then GDP was 8.9% lower in 2014. So real GDP with accurate inflation data may have been -8% to -10%.
Just look at how we fix inflation:
Chapwood Index shows real inflation in US.
In 2014, it was 9.7% - 1212% of official US inflation (0.8%)
http://www.chapwoodindex.com/
Hmmm... Inflation is understated by 11 to 12 per cent so the real GDP is - 10.8 or - 11.8.
Winning (banksters)!
0.2 is impressive comsidering we're living in a zirp world.
Obamacare, FTW!
janet is still looking for 2%, i think the 1% took her 2%
Where is Zero Hedge's consistently published GDP growth estimate? I am sure that they will be much more accurate and will gradually gain more currency (pun intended) in the markets with their notable accuracy.
wow. what an insight. we are all so much more informed!
Without true price discovery, there's simply no rational estimates possible (never mind the fact that GDP calculation is pure nonsense). It's nothing more than a goal-seeked number that's walked down over time in an effort to "manage expectations" in order to create a "soft landing."
Only an idiot, or sophist would dare to engage in such an attempt of measurement. Thankfully, Tyler is neither.
We might as well be debating the logistics of Santa Claus or the Tooth Fairy.
"Only an idiot, or sophist would dare to engage in such an attempt of measurement. Thankfully, Tyler is neither."
Exactly.
TPTB publish a number like GDP as a "guide to policy". ZH's reason for being is to stop the central planning that is the background for all this BS. Let people trade free of the "committee to save the world"'s influence, and let the chips fall where they may. Some will rise and some will fall.
Calculating and trying to influence a chaotic system is the height of wasted human effort. The sad thing is that in our current model, those who are wasting the most of everyone's time and effort are viewed as the most respected of our species. Our species is pretty pathetic if this is the best we've got.
Most of ZH understands that proficies are best left to the high priests, and their flocks.
jugs
not to get all serious and shit but the data is published to show how bad our frearless leaders are in trying to figure out what will happen next. They are pretty much clueless but insist that we follow them into battle.
Anyone who does will be slaughtered.
If you have not figured that out, consider this a helpful, life saving tip.
you are welcome..
Isn't it - .2% --
This graph show +.2%
So either the graph is wrong or the consensus is wrong even after the numbers come out.
The consensus estimate is still wrong!
Consensus. Science through Demockracy.
Consensus to a negative number would be admitting we are screwed...that is bad for morale and simply not allowed.
They make me feel better and I don't have to take my "sedative investment" medicine any more! :)
Welcome to the Tom Petty Economy......"....`Cus I'm Freeeee.......Free-Fallin!"......
what happens when the chart of GDP and that of of money velocity cross?
The same thing that happens if the Ghostbusters cross their streams.
"Egon Spengler: There's something very important I forgot to tell you.
Peter Venkman: What?
Spengler: Don't cross the streams.
Venkman: Why?
Spengler: It would be bad.
Venkman: I'm fuzzy on the whole good/bad thing. What do you mean, "bad"?
Spengler: Try to imagine all life as you know it stopping instantaneously and every molecule in your body exploding at the speed of light.
Ray Stantz: Total protonic reversal!
Venkman: Right. That's bad. Okay. All right. Important safety tip. Thanks, Egon."
It seems like actual GDP growth graphs pretty well against the amount of interest banks pay on their CDs. So what does a ZIRP policy mean for future GDP? ZGDP!
They only exist to make sure that the IPO and M&A money flows into the coffers.
Actually that is a perfectly accurate graph depicting poor analysis.
We have been in recession since last fall. However, since every piece of economic data has been manipulated beyond recognition, the NBER won't announce it until its over. 9 more months, the big bang in the spring. Obama to hand his predecesor a crashed market just like the previous 2 potus.
0 growth but only 5% unemployment, suuure.
"Pappy, what's a rate hike?" - my imaginary grandoffspring
keep printing until we have 0 growth, 0 employment, 0 interest, ....0....well we already have a 0 in the white house
Yes, but the further it falls the higher it can go...
That looks like how many corn Flakes are in a box now...same size box...just fewer flakes....inflation baby
that's Flake Deflation
"And remember" the Easter bunny was told, "Keep smiling!"
Yesterday, after reading the TPP article, I called my congressman in DC and they told me that you lie a lot.
The wheels are off the wagon now, and they've moved on to the blame game.
Wheres the bottom half of the chart
Kansas
Kansas can't afford any.
'growth' ??!!?? waszat? somthing from the 50s?
I think it went the way of the Dodo.
From the 50s???
There was no growth in the 50s. None at all. The 1950's economy was mired in poverty and despair because of Ike's super high tax rates. He did this intentionally because he was a monster. His evil and depravity even reached the level where he actually denied that corporations were people (he was a denier). In his communist heart he believed that corporations were only things that existed to serve breathing people. Thank God he's burning in the bowels of hell where he belongs.
Sadly for America, Ike's cruelly high tax rates precluded any chance for employment, manufacturing or a rising standard of living during the entire length of Ike's administration. By the time he left office, his burdensome tax structure left the streets littered with the bodies of women and children who starved to death because everything they had was taken by the tax man. The folks who lived during those dark times are still scarred by the memory of what they endured.
It's a well known fact that most people in the 50s realized they had no future because of Ike's taxes, so they resigned themselves to living in mud huts, and they ate grass and grubs with an occasional barbecued stray dog (usually at Thanksgiving).
Those super insane tax rates were designed to capture a handfull of individuals. How can you say the 50's were mired in poverty? The automobile and suburanization, coupled with the US being the only industrial superpower on the planet rebuilding Europe allowed millions to leave poverty.
What a bunch of cry-babies! The estimate is only off by 1,400 percent. Among government agencies, that's excellent accuracy.
Just thank your lucky stars they dont design bridges or airplanes.
Cheaper than sacrificing a Goat to check the entrails.
Congratulations! The Pentagon has added you to the list of unpriviliged belligerents/enemy combatants/unreported bigmouths. Expect a delivery of hellfire missiles soon.
No need to post the obvious about expecting another tsunami of QE soon I guess.
Instead of discussing our already increasing disdain for how governments operate, lets discuss how we co-opt and form groups and skills to change them.
Zero hedge needs to spend less time on the symptoms, and more on how we can cure them. IMHFO in my humble fucking opinion
Collectivism always fails.
Forming groups is collectivism.
Individualism is the solution. You are in the best place to make solutions for yourself.
You are awareof your needs. There is no collectivist solution...none.
And the opportunity for individual solutions are waning as well as the current collective moves to restrict individual Liberties.
You have hope?
The odds are slim to none for survival..and as for Slim, well, he left the room awhile back.
There are NO SOLUTIONS...especially collectivist solutions.
Wrong.
Are you NOT part of the Zero Hedge TEAM ~ collective ?
Do people including myself NOT appreciate your valuable input TallTom?
What a waste/
We should all sit at home and eat snacks and get fat and read zerohedge commentary from guys especially like juggalo1. I love you juggalo1.
I'm already sitting at home. I'm already fat. I just need to catch up on my Zero reading; which I will right after I get me a snack.
We should all sit at home and eat snacks and get fat and read zerohedge commentary from guys especially like juggalo1. I love you juggalo1.
Amen, cause I'm just about tapped out with all the constant retreads of Cheech and Chong's; 'feels like shit, smells like shit, tastes like shit....' routine.
I agree. Yet at the same time, change is not desired and it will take change to cure them.
For example, the citizens have been lied to about hope and change for decades, from education to wars on drugs, poverty, racism, you name it.
Overall there are a lot of people who like the way it is right now. Anyone ever having been in a third world country knows it can be a hell of a lot worse.
There is no desire by the majority to change, as much as they bitch and complain.
A sizeable number of people willing to do what it takes to change something is what is required and often they are talked out of it by the MSM propaganda machine.
Direct Democracy.
It's not too late to predict a higher 2015 Q1 GDP, there's several Q1 adjustments yet to come :-P
Buut, they said that they are Professionals! Hey, they wear suits and stuff!
Fuck You Oblozo!
I'm old fashioned, I still like spray painting Audit the Fed.. on overpass bridges at midnight..
although bank signs might be more productive..
dear NSA this is Humor. the /s is a typo
TPA-->TPP-->JADE HELM-->GUN CONFISCATION-->CIVIL WAR-->RESTORATION OF OUR CONSTITUTIONAL REPUBLIC
HOPE LEADS TO COMPLACENCY AND COMPLACENCY TO TYRANNY
yes a % of this0.20 that's ebt's would be interesting, but what's scary is the fast drop in jan., feb., that's when the irs legally,and illegally distributes 10's of billions in tax refunds.
Chart breakdown of the day is XLB Materials taking out an 8 month uptrend and pointing to a bear market lower low at 48, down 3% (DJIA off 500, SPX down 60):
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=xlb&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=8
Why does the chart look like Nebraska?
Anything to do with Warren Buffett or Berkshire Hathaway?
Subtract all the pointless financial churning from GDP and it is likely very negative. Especially when so much of the imaginary profits, fees, inflated values are properly separated out. Wages are stagnant. Jobs are disappearing or of lower value. Inflation increases. Real money is scarce. People who work for real money, doing real things, are starting to look harder and longer at every transaction they make. The velocity and expansion of that money is starting to go into reverse. The average person is the first one to feel reality. They react fast, because they are right on the the edge of plus and minus. The ones further up the financial chain can play all the other financial games for a lot longer. There is a large group of people who are helping each other keep together a land of make believe where they are still rich, in spite of the reality of their dollars versus a dollar of a real paycheck. A whole lot of rich people are flying high, on kites. A large portion of the economy is being kited. Every day it is more separated from reality. The masses of the middle and poorer classes are paying less and less into that fantasy. It is existing on debt. The regular folks are drowning in debt, but the rich are just as deep underwater. They are buddy breathing. Their buddies being other governments still trading goods for paper, banks and markets, pretending overvalued stocks, financial instruments, and straight out debt paper, are actual current assets. If things don't reset in a crash, they will quickly reset in steps. It will start with luxuries. Fame will lose it's financial value first. People will want to be entertained of course. But they will be very satisfied with the entertainment of watching famous people becoming poor. Especially those of the Kardashian type. Famous for nothing more than being famous. Maybe there will be a last spurt of reality voyeurism money to be made by showing us that. There will be an upsurge in pirating entertainment. As we get sick of someone like Taylor Swift bemoaning that she will not be paid continuously for something she did once. If we want to pay at all, she can drag her ass to our town and put on a show. Movie stars can begin working for a year, for a year of wages, not doing one movie and expecting to be paid enough to retire and their children's children to never have to work as well. Sports stars can take a chance like the rest of us. Get hurt on the job and if you are lucky, get a paltry disability benefit. But only if they can't do some other job. CEO's etc, can spend their imaginary money and have fun, till it is made real. Then they can try and continue to buy politicians with that monopoly money, while the voters pick up pitchforks and torches.
The overvalued, overpaid, exist only at the vast majority's ability and willingness to support them. Those same over valued, overpaid, never cease to increase their sense of self worth. But that worth is quite quickly connected to the paycheck of the masses. The useless rich are cutting too much, into the rent, food and utilities of the masses. They will be discarded. They will put up a fight by continuing to buy the law makers, the media talkers. But the lawmakers, politicians, are the second ones to feel the direction of the wind change. The first to feel the pitchforks and torches, of those who first, finally feel it. The majority. Those who pay for it all.
With inflation its impossible to have less than say 1% numeric GDP growth.
Unless people are hoarding cash at a higher rate than they are printing it or people just completely stop spending.
This is a signal to the consumer stop spending and to wait for lower prices.
If you have 2% inflation (lets say as a target), you should expect atleast 2% nominal GDP growth (not real growth, just bigger numbers).
The fact that we are hovering around 1% means the economy has completely just stalled.... its not growing its actually shrinking.
you can't say that in Obama's house unless you suck his dick first
ICKANAWMICK GROWTH.
FUCK YA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FFS I'm so fed up with all this bullshit...Ireland took the opposite direction to Greece yet the problems remain (just under the surface). The euro project is doomed but it will limp on for years crisis after crisis dragging everyone down with it.
BUT ITS NOT JUST THE EURO... ITS ALL FIAT CURRENCY.. ITS REACHED THE END OF THE ROAD...
Reading ZH convinced me to own gold to try remove myself from this madness as best I could but like nearly everybody I had F..K all extra cash to convert into bullion.
6 months ago I had no cash and no gold and a shed load of credit card debt.. Now I have a some extra cash.. a few ounces of gold... and I'm rid of the dreaded credit card debt..all from reading Zero Hedge and its commentators, taking that knowledge and doing something with it!!! thanks guys I owe you.
If you find yourself in the same position as me and you're willing to try your hand at network marketing, you could use the commissions earned to acquire gold bullion from Karatbars. Its not for everybody and I'm not pushing it on anyone it's just another option for you guys. All I can do is testify that its working for me - There is no reason why we can't make it work for all of us..
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with this level of gdp, I guess they will have to raise taxes, since they est tax revenue on much more robust economic activity. higher taxes should really boost this moribund economy.