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Dallas Fed Surges Back, Beats By Most Since Jan 2012 But Hope Tumbles
After breaking to 6 year lows in May, expectations were for a bounce in Dallas Fed's Manufacturing Outlook from -20.8 to -16. After missing expectations for six straight months, June's bounce to a -7.0 print is the biggest best since January 2012. This surge was all due to the current conditions shift as future hope for new orders and production tumbled. While most subindices rose, we note that CapEx fall once again to 3-month lows. This is the 6th consecutive negative (contractionary) print in a row for Dallas Fed - something not seen outside of a recession.
Bounce... or Trend?
The imrpovement was all current conditions as future hope tumbled...
Why is it still not growing again? Simple - rain!
Fabricated Metal Manufacturing
We currently believe we are seeing the bottom of the downturn in oil and gas. So far, it appears it is holding true as new orders received in June are equal to the prior month for the first time in 2015. Sales and orders are increasing, but costs are increasing at a greater rate.
First we faced strikes, now storms. It is tough out there. Signs of some stability in oil and gas exploration and production are emerging. If that continues, then our business conditions will benefit in the coming months.
Weather in the Texas region continues to slow home building and renovation. Due to the wet conditions, most of my customers are unable to work on projects and their backlog continues to grow.
May's rains will impact construction activity over the next couple of months.
Charts: Bloomberg
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It's All Good. Translation: It's fucked up but we have no choice but to live with it (followed by a fake smile).
It is called a 'beat'. This could only happen in the gamble-o-market that we now have. This is like saying it is a 'win' because we only lost by 7 instead of 16. What a farce!
As I keep tellin ya
THE FERAL RESERVE WILL RAISE RATES NO MATTER WHAT!
Somehow I don't think that metal is the only thing being manufactured when it comes to .gov statistics.
SNAFU! Situation normal: all fucked up!
Does anyone expect bad news today, while they are trying to prop everything up? They have been planning this for weeks. No bad news today. Just green stocks. And they will be green by the end of the day. Exposure to Greek debt and banks by US banks? How about exposure to the Fed window and a stealth bailout, which probably started before this latest round of greek nonsense. And probably this greek can will be kicked again within 24 hours. I am sure the central banker clowns have closed their personal trades by now.
Everyone still thinks Texas & the Southwest is still only about O&G. That went out after the 1980's. Other than New Mexico, where half its wretched 2 million population are on some form of direct govt subsidy (incl R&D sinecures), the US Southwest is amazingly well-diversified.
US Southwest is amazingly well-diversified
And enjoying the lowest debt to GDP ratios in the USA:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-29/puerto-rico-bonds-are-collapsing
Blame it on the weather. The rains messed us up, but mostly in the agricultural sector. Some things in the PMI sector were slowed down, but not as much as their claiming. Admitting the truth would look bad though.....
And, employment posted a gain. Gonna put a dent in those Challenger numbers (unless Gap fills the. . . . crevasse).
Hmm. I wonder if there's something unique to Texas such that it would be weaker than the rest of the U.S. It's a mystery..
But this is of course good news, as it appears the hit from falling oil is about out of the Texas economy.
Very funny that Tyler now cares about the hope-o-meter.