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Greece... Mattered: Surveying The Carnage
Greece... mattered!!
The market be like...
* * *
It began as FX markets opened ugly in early Asian trading, but once stock markets started to open, the focus shifted there...
Japan spanked... Nikkei 225 down 730 points from Friday's close...
China collapsed...
When Europe opened it was ugly in stocks...
And bonds... European spreads exploded - biggest risk increase in 7 years...
But The Swiss National Bank did its best to sell Francs and buy EURs to make it all appear "contained"... Which squeezed EURUSD all the way into the green... a 325 pip ramp!!!
And the Sudden "hand of God" move in EUR around 1340ET
Chart showing sudden jolt in currency futures pic.twitter.com/vFiMM8u7CX
— Eric Scott Hunsader (@nanexllc) June 29, 2015
While Greek stock markets were closed, their bonds were not.. .and carnaged 420bps higher to 15.10%...
And stock ADRs and ETFs traded in the US:
- EUFN - European Financials, down 4% - broke below its 200DMA
- NBG - Nation Bank of Greece, down 26% on record volume
- GREK - Greek Stocks, down 18% on record volume
* * *
In The US, the initial carnage dip was bought with gusto but that ramp failed and by the close we were testing new lows...
Trannies managed to get back to unchanged before plunging...
Cash markets were a one-way street from just after the open...
Financials hammered!!
Post-FOMC: Bonds best, Gold glitters, but Stocks stink...
Leaving The Dow red and S&P unch for the year...
All major indices broke significant technical levels today...
VIX surged to 19.00... (from 11 handle last Tuesday)
As the 50.98 million share short of the 63.9 million outstanding in VXX suffered greatly... above 20 to 7-week highs on massive volume
The last time VXX rose more than 14% in a day was 913 trading days ago (more than 3 years ago on November 9, 2011) and Bernanke bailed out Europe
VIX term structure inverted once again...
Treasury yields plunged as a near-record short position felt the squeeze... this was the best day for 10Y yields since January
The dollar tumbled as the manipulated EUR surge "proved" there was nothing to fear... USDJPY did not play along wioth the manipulation.
Gold held onto gains but copper, silver and worse Crude (down 2.4%) all slide despite the USD weakness...
* * *
Oh and then there is Puerto Rico collapsing...
And Bitcoin is surging...
* * *
Amid all this with stocks down just 3% from their highs... The Fear & Greed Index collapsed to just 12!!!!
But apart from that...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Wait, I thought it was "different this time"
/s
Hey...what's happening?!?
but will P Diddy's kid start for UCLA
I'm with you. Enough of all this confusing bullshit.
Let's find about about important stuff.
from puff daddy to p diddy. the guy really knows how to re-invent himself.
According to Macquarie Research:
http://personal.crocodoc.com/lHeFs3w
China drama & Greek farce
Are Central Banks at the end of the road?
Greek and Chinese dramas question role of Central Banks…
- The latest developments in China and the Eurozone inevitably invite the question whether Central Banks are coming to the end of the road. Given the limited impact of their policies on real economies with stimulus largely being confined within walls of financial assets, has the time of reckoning finally arrived?
- As discussed in the past (here & here), the only sustainable LT outcomes for the over-leveraged and over-supplied global economy are either: (a) allowing the deflationary cycle to go through, thus eliminating global excess capacity in service and merchandise economies; (b) elimination of excess debt via some form of hyperinflation and/or co-ordinated debt cancellation; or (c) banning capital markets via nationalization. Given that neither of these alternatives is attractive, involving pain for either borrowers or savers; intergenerational transfers or courting sharply lower ROIC, CBs would rather kick the can down the road in the hope that a solution would be eventually found.
…and should CBs place monetary policies in neutral gear?
- PBoC’s half-hearted attempts last week to slow the pace of appreciation of the equity market have inevitably and predictably resulted in severe correction. The double-barrel reduction in interest rates and RRR on Saturday is a belated realization that it is courting a significant economic backlash. As discussed here, we do not believe that China’s de-leveraging is either possible or desirable. Having reached leverage of ~3:1, any debate about the evils or virtue of debt has passed a long time ago, and the only viable choice from now on is to continue leveraging, though perhaps at a somewhat slower and safer pace.
- In order to continue leveraging, PBoC has to make sure that: (a) there is no sharp correction in any of the key asset prices; (b) at least some asset prices are appreciating; and (c) there is no further contraction in nominal GDP. This requires a combination of exceptionally stimulative monetary and fiscal policies as well as trust that a country is not yet in a liquidity trap and that it is capable responding to stimulus in safeguarding nominal GDP. The game is no longer about reaching 7% real GDP growth but avoiding zero nominal GDP.
- The same dynamics are playing out in Europe. The battle is between politicians who have not yet grasped that deleveraging is no longer feasible, and the ECB, which is fully onboard. Whether Greece is allowed to exit does not alter the basic argument that the numbers do not work, unless leveraging continues.
China is at very early stages of stimulus
- We maintain that China is at an early stage of significant (probably the largest globally) stimulative action. We expect that over the next two years, RRRs would be reduced to historic levels (i.e. 5-6%); interest rates would be lowered to zero and fiscal spending would become much more aggressive (including multiple banking re-capitalizations). The only question is whether China would send a massive inflationary pulse through global economy or would aim for more moderate impact. Initially, the PBoC would be aiming for moderate outcomes, ensuring support for asset prices but avoiding more disruptive action. However as we progress into 2016-17, more drastic actions might be needed. In the meantime, we remain O/W MSCI China, as equities remain the least systemic asset class that can be leveraged, at least for now.
d)Destroy malinvestment with WOAR.
... and euro closed green ... what a fucking joke ...
They simply couldn't turn all markets green, so the Euro was picked, along with the usual paper selling of silver and commodities. Who the hell wants real stuff during times like these?
Nobody will want "real stuff" until they are forced to understand what "real stuff" means i.e. "real stuff" in exchange for life saving food/water.
May have called the top on 6/3/2015. Been fighting the Fed for 4 long years with the P&L (mostly L) to show for it! Been a brutal ride but when this baby turns there will be life changing money to be made. Second guessing myself as this post might itself be a contrary indicator. Then again, if we have truly reached "peak conditioning" all courses of action will feel uncomfortable.
http://forayintothemarket.com/?p=111
Slow it down a bit..you are in the right direction, but the timing is off. Account for the death throws and you will be fine aka make money. this is going to fight itself for a minute before it turns its head down and takes a nosedive. Play it nimble for a few cycles and then ride the wave. GL
This is the most shit hitting the fan in a long time.
Au contraire, this is ths fan hitting the shit.
Any idea who may have started the day net long Greece and/or Puerto Rico?
(Yeah, sometimes ya gotta get nosey and personal.)
The boys and girls are being taken for a ride. How many retailers heard "default" and had the bright idea to short? That's crucifixion material.
I'm ... not seeing it on my chart yet.
Don't fight the Fed, I read several times but I am quit sure it is the other way around: Don't fight the markets. Just ask the British Central Bank what happened back in, I believe 1992, when the British Pound collapsed, despite Massive buying by the BOE.
Bankers are like a bunch of weight-lifters. Markets are like gravity.
It's only a matter of time.
Seriously. They'll have this all papered over by the end of the week.
Here is a social commentary by Martin Armstrong who is pointing out how stupid it all is.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/24149
We'll see how big a deal this is tomorrow. Watch these pos manipulated markets bounce right back. If they sink another few hundred points it could be an issue. Or an issue that they'll let run it's course instead of backstop it behind a dam that's getting ready to burst and drown everyone is bankster filth.
Who could'a seen this coming?!?
ZH earns yet another "honorary" ZhD. Congrats. Seriously.
Seen on a recent graduate's mortar board:
"Proud of my B.S."
OT
Vice Ukraine bodycount videos are back.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yTFj55u9Sgw&list=PLw613M86o5o5zqF6WJR8zu...
I believe -- for no reason except a hunch -- that the Western powers are about to use the Greek military against the Greek people/Syriza.
Imagine the greek military cancelling the referendum ... this is only one point at which the military could take control. The threat of Russian expansion is too much for old Europe to handle. So, here's a scenario. The military will declare the referendum, or something like that, illegal. Tsipras will flee to Russia. THe military "protects" Greece from Russian domination. I see the future of Grece unfolding like Egypt -- the military sits on the side until it reaches it threshhold. Then moves.
European/American politicos are surely in touch with their Greek counterparts in the military.
PErhaps they'll need a lettter, or something like that which was written in 1938 in England which caused the Labour party to eventually lose. SOmething about a Communist threat. I'm sure several people in Western countries would happily write a letter proportedly from a Russian general or one of Putin's cronies detailing how they'll take over Greece. This will be delivered to the Greek military. Then they'll have cover for a take-over. POlitical cover.
And then again, perhaps I'm just imaginative. We'll see.
Right or wrong, you opened up some new possibilities for us to consider. Thanks.
your hnch happened - see the movie "Z"
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0065234/
back when our trolls had the world they wanted.
The only Greek military question is, will the Greek Orthodox military submit to Jewish banker rule, or side with the Russian Orthodox military?
Things are different now, from a religious perspective. Russia was Jewish, and Europe was Christian last time.
And the Muslim immigrant situation in Greece is another X factor.
Many things to watch unfold.
Slightly OT:
At http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=fxi I found this mind blowing headline:
Central Banks driving financial markets? Could that really be true??
Must be a conspiracy theory.
Roilin' Roilin' Roilin, keep them markets Roilin'
I can't help it.
OT is too funny!
YOU'RE FIRED!!!!!!!!
Trump is a master of self-promotion. Getting fired by the network that tried to keep serial liar Brian Williams/Wilson is a compliment and Trump knows it. He'll parlay this into good PR. People will admire him for taking on the corrupt networks.
Trump 1 -- Network 0
Still polling #2 behind Jeb. Good luck keeping him out of the debates.
I'd send him $10, and he doesn't even want it. Just amazing in modern American politics.
JPM and GS went into this at all time highs. Their shareholders aren't going to be happy when this crash makes the 2008 crash look like a cakewalk.
I bet EUR would probably rise as the risk of Greece leaves the EU increases. It would mean less EUR being printed, one less trouble country and better figures for the Eurozone overall.
SNB?
Is the SNB now working for the FED?
I forsee -700 point days ahead.
Then I guess your in triple shorts up to your eyeballs, no? And making a small fortune?
Would have today.
Greece must not Fall. Germans, it will be your responsibility.
http://just-a-thought-from-thinair.blogspot.com/
MORAL HAZARD IN 10 GRAPHS
CAPITALIZE GAINS
CRASH
SOCIALIZE LOSSES
RISE
CAPITALIZE GAINS
CRASH
SOCIALIZE LOSSES
RINSE REPEAT
GAMBLERS GET RICHER WITH EACH CYCLE
MIDDLE CLASS GETS RORTED WITH EACH CYCLE
I MEAN IT COULD NOT BE CLEARER!
Visible is now considering to reduce the maximum daily withdrawal limit from ATMs at 20 euros in the next few days, as banking stocks are depleted. The reduction may be necessary, as from Thursday opened 850 bank branches for pensioners who do not have cards, from which you can cumulate receive EUR 240 each for the first four days of the week and then 60 per day from the counter (just like from ATMs).
http://www.enallaxnews.gr/2015/06/29/pros-ta-20-evrw-to-imerisio-orio-an...
Great job ZH. It has been an awesome day. Now back to homework.
Kramer fielded a call from a hapless muppet that has just lost his ass on a Kramer trade.
Is this great? - Flounder
"Greece may have mattered" But, here is what CNN had to say from one of it's contributors.
"Just hold your nose for now, sit tight, and stay fulled invested in the markets" "If you are going to Greece, don't worry, the ATMs will kick out your money, and you will get fantastic deals"
If you trust these fucks for investment advice, you are a fool.
OT, but power, holding power, morphs all our Institutions which seem too exist just to support the whole system and keep the gambit going.
Kind of a repost:
Melissa Turley, a State Department official, approached a Free Beacon reporter and demanded that he leave the room.
“You’re not registered with the U.S. press,” Turley said after being informed that the Free Beacon was attending the event.
“You have a press pass from the [European Union], not from me,” Turley said, after being informed that the Free Beacon was officially credentialed to cover the event.
Turley and her colleagues then threatened the reporter, instructing him to leave the room or be dealt with by “security.”
http://freebeacon.com/issues/state-department-ejects-free-beacon-reporte...
- USA knows we are a Military Republic
- Propaganda is that we are a Democracy
- Last US Democracy was at the State & Local Level, but it disappears when State & Local Government DEPEND on Federal Funds each year
- Strong Central Government is required to have Superpower Status and to Maintain a Large Global Military(and must have Fiat Currency)
- Strong Central Government also means having global spy network, electronic surveillance, and often Domestic Spying when it is a Superpower and a User of its Military Might
- Superpower Status also means the end of Free Press and Free Speech as you have witnessed
- So our Military Republic = Dirty Wars and the end of Geneva Conventions since we must constantly show power, strength, and confidence, we must prove we can mobile our military, use our military, and that we have Veterans of War
Pretty Sad.
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/looking-beh... (Link supports statement about free press being gone)
that's what I would like to do, walk around greece with pockets full of money. Good call CNN
Que the fat lady.
I'd like to mind my P's and Cue's
Then mind your 'p's and 'q's
(It was spoken as an admonition against the dyslexic initially. Note the transposition of the downstroked line in the letter 'p' and the letter 'q'.)
I find that humor directed against the visually impared to be crass, lacking any semblance of class, and outright distatseful.
Don't you?
The whole project is ego driven... no different to every war (hot, cold or financial) that has ever been fought... what amazes me is how the bullshit continues on in this Fiat currency, nothing is as it seems, upside down world.. Maybe the whole thing is a game/matrix of deception and the people are in a deeper sleep that we on ZH realise.
Regardless, I believe I woke from that sleep a year ago, got an alternative education on ZH and consequently got into gold bullion and now I want to give something back.
For those of you not actually in the physical metal .. I can highly recommend it.. because no matter what goes on in the EU Punch and Judy show... my stress levels reduced 90% knowing I have some bullion.
You might think I'm just spamming, but I'm not... I'm deadly serious! I got involved in a German company called Karatbars International who produce Gold Bullion in small weights and boy am I glad on so many levels.
They developed an incredibly lucrative affiliate marketing system to get their product to market... Its free to join at the basic level although if you decided to go all in to earn the highest commissions the buy in price is essentially peanuts... FFS my day job Personal Indemnity insurance costs more per month!!
The downside is it's more a mass education programme than marketing,,, because aside from ZeroHedgers the financial IQ out there is well down the trickle down economic cascade and those people need to be educated to get some AU!
Spam.
Repetitive post......verbose.......waste of time and space. Please stop.
"The truth can stand alone."
I really don't think Greece had anything to do with the carnage in China and probably not Japan either..
I don't know what the "official cause" will be tomorrow, but after the opening, I expect a huge liftoff and we recover all the ground lost today by the close tomorrow. Crazy, yes, but seen this movie too many times the last 6 years.
They have started already, and here's a Market Watch Headline screenshot, "Why Greek crisis won't hurt US economy" next to dow's 350 point drop. Priceless.
Lots of people reading the Greek articles now. Are we all looking to see if this is the contagion trigger?
Table 22A.
http://www.bis.org/statistics/dt21c22a.pdf
Please explain how, after a huge outlier day like today, no financial institutions ended up buried by their derivatives books.
the derivatives are predominantly interest rate swaps. Rates moved, but rather insignificant little amounts.
According to table, dealers and financial institutions hold around a trillion bucks gross market value worth of otc equity-linked derivatives. Yet ne'er a scratch to anyone's equity.... I find it a tad unbelievable. #letthebodieshitthefloor
They're never going to tell us. We won't know squat until the doors shut.
In the meantime, the Fed will make it rain.
That's funny. Now we're going to pretend rules are for everyone!
Silly Rabbit, Trix are for Kids.
And now, at almost 8 pm EDT, all is calm on the Eastern Front. The Abyss may have looked into the room, but it didn't walk in and sit at the table (yet).
"Trannies managed to get back to unchanged..."
'Trannies' and 'unchanged' just shouldn't appear in the same sentence.
Wake me when we take out the 2009 "generational low".
It seems weird that gold and silver are going nowhere, but bitcoin and litecoin are going up. I don't even like precious metals, but I can at least understand the appeal of them. Litecoin? Seriously?
I lost so effing much money on SPY Puts over the past 4 months, I had little left. But enuff to score some way out of the money SPY and IWM Puts late last week. Made a bit today. Hope there is a bit of a bounce at the open to jump back in. Love buying dips.
Speaking of which, where the hell was all the dip buyers today? I head the spinheads on CNBS asking guests if today's dip was a great buying opportunity. Of course, well over half said YES and that the S & P would close the yer as high as 7 - 10 % up. LMFAO - yeh.
With Greece, Puerto Rico and China shitting the bricks, perhaps this is the left field event?
Wow ! Charts like symphony scores. Wrong calls by those arrogant EU Bureaucrats who cannot surf the waves. Never mind, they will be replaced by their more hungry lieutenants.
Grrek's NO will concretize the losses in the likes of Deutsche Bank, HSBC, etc.