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Greek Contagion Uncontained: Portugal Bond Risk Spikes Most In Over 7 Years

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Portuguese bond risk spiked a massive 49bps today. Early efforts to limit the contagion failed and Portuguese risk went out at its highs of the day and the biggest spike in risk since March 2008. Yes we know Draghi has a big bazooka but so does China... and how did that work out?

 

 

Let us be clear - this is not "contained," no matter what you are told.

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:41 | 6250239 LawsofPhysics
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Until mark to market accounting returns and money creaation actually requires real collateral, nothing will change and further lying/jawboning will only encourage WWIII.

 

first country to reinstate good accounting practices will do fine, fuck anything and everything else and hedge accordingly until then.

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:44 | 6250264 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

mark to market? the Fed IS the market. what good will that do.

the main error of Enron's accounting department was being early. but they set the template.

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:46 | 6250270 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

I remember clearly hearing Skilling yelling curses at that journalist who asked him some touchy balance sheet questions that later turned out to be spot on.

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:54 | 6250310 pods
pods's picture

Looks pretty ringfenced to me.

pods

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:49 | 6250283 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Better be careful, using obscenities like "good accounting practices" cannot be allowed. Besides, I'm not sure they have anybody left who have ever even seen a double entry ledger, or even knows how it works......

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:50 | 6250292 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

You sound like some kind of terrorist with those demands. Please report to FEMA camp 14 immediately for processing and re-education.

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:52 | 6250304 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The market must CLEAR first before we deal in "accounting issues."

That means settlement in CASH.

Failure to open the Athens STOCK EXCHANGE says "they have no cash" which makes whatever "accounting gimmicks" you're thinking of well nigh worthless.

Since debt markets do not trade on any exchange we'll have to have ESCELLENT risk management skills to properly ascertain VALUE.

For a Bank it's really quite simple: what is the COLLATERAL being posted here.

Don't tell the Bank "Athens" either...

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:56 | 6250322 large_wooden_badger
large_wooden_badger's picture

It's like ebola for financial markets

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:58 | 6250333 CPL
CPL's picture

It'll never happen and you know exactly why.

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 14:16 | 6250447 American Sucker
American Sucker's picture

first country to reinstate good accounting practices will do finebe declared terrorists

FTFY

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:41 | 6250243 Creepy A. Cracker
Creepy A. Cracker's picture

That was boring...

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:42 | 6250245 ted41776
ted41776's picture

don't worry, the rigged "markets" can handle it

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:49 | 6250246 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Seven years.... let's see, what major economic event happened seven years ago (and seems to happen about every seven years) that's still plaguing us today? Well actually the root of the problem has been plaguing us since 1913.  

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:44 | 6250266 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

The title must mean "Greek Constipation" ... not "Contagion."

 

Take moar fiber and water and call me in the morning.

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:48 | 6250282 large_wooden_badger
large_wooden_badger's picture

Portugal? Who's Portugal?

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:55 | 6250316 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

twelve hundred tons of Nazi Gold...that's who...

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 14:43 | 6250599 large_wooden_badger
large_wooden_badger's picture

Now, we have some information here, but we can't make anything out of it and maybe you can. "Tanis development proceeding. Acquire headpiece, Staff of Ra, Abner Ravenwood, US."

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:59 | 6250342 Undutchable73
Undutchable73's picture

the next one breaking the chain

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:55 | 6250315 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

US has debt and unfunded liabilities of over $1,400,000 per taxpayer.  When will US bonds react? Kotlikoff has US debt of $1,720,000 per taxpayer:

Renowned economist Laurence Kotlikoff recently testified at the U.S. Senate about the runaway U.S. budget.  How bad is it?  Kotlikoff says, “I told them the real (2014) deficit was $5 trillion, not the $500 billion or $300 billion or whatever it was announced to be this year. Almost all the liabilities of the government are being kept off the books by bogus accounting. . . . The government is 58% underfinanced . . . . Social Security is 33% underfinanced . . . . So, the entire government enterprise is in worse fiscal shape than Social Security is, but they are both in terrible shape.”  So, how much is America on the hook for in the future?  Kotlikoff contends, “If you take all the expenditures that the government is expected to make, as projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), all the spending on defense, repairing the roads, paying for the Supreme Court Justices’ salaries, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, welfare, everything and take all those expenditures into the future . . . and compare that to all the taxes that are projected to come in, and the difference is $210 trillion.  That’s the fiscal gap.  That’s our true debt.”

http://usawatchdog.com/financial-system-will-collapse-just-a-matter-of-w...

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:58 | 6250338 Peter K
Peter K's picture

No it is not!

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 13:58 | 6250340 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

Civil Society in History, ADD
Relationships among nation/states is just an aggregate derivative of the civil marriages upon which they rest. A couple gets into s fight, you step in, and before it’s over, opportunity has passed you by and you are on the losing end, and they are back together, telling you how to conduct a marriage, even after they are divorced.
It’s always the same sh-show. The law cuts off the leading edge, places it in back, and presents the outcome as History, depicting the result as God’s will, the will of The People, AI or whatever political mythology passes for intelligence at the time.
Due process continues until the entire economy turns upside down, the critters must raise the rent to make their nut, slave trade must be made more efficient, and infrastructure crumbles, while the cave people build a taller edifice to their mythology, in the face of another unnatural disaster. Empires come and go accordingly.
The controlling class can’t feed itself; all it has is words; and it’s beholden to capital, the past. Does it really matter to the lower middle class in Greece who is in charge of keeping it in poverty, for a share of global real estate inflation, until the latest and greatest controlling class is fed to the mob, like all the rest?
So, I am looking at $3M over 15 years to provide for my family, and have offered Bank 10% in interest, taxes, whatever the critters want to call it, for a line of credit, to test intent. The response is 75%, and if I don’t accept, my kids will be taken and handed over to a homosexual couple, which now has the right to receive them, and I will be arbitrarily taxed anyway. Next.
You can go to war or be about your own business. Politics and Religion, Democrats versus Republicans, is a waste of time, with or without the US Constitution. Every so often you just let the critters have their way, and we all find out just who has built the best foundation.
How the people of Greece vote will be interesting, for about 15 minutes, because the only difference among nation/states is the scale of the debacle and its timing, in a trap of global accounting, embedded in their infrastructure through trade deals. Creditor or debtor, global accounting practice is a weapon of mass destruction.
Which brand of civil marriage wins the latest competition to assign debt to future generations, at the least benefit to itself, in terms of rent/income, is of no concern to labor. Who cares if homosexuals are granted civil marriage, it’s their own undoing.
Affirmative action for homosexuals simply shortens the attention scan, another accounting gimmick, in a very long line. If you are looking to be rebellious, to feed the empire, you needn’t go nearly so far; stupid laws to confirm peer pressure behavior are everywhere, and the only difference is the color of the law.
Transient Occupancy Tax leverage is a piss-poor foundation for property and sales taxes, below-the-line tax on tax, but that never stops the critters from financing the ponzi with inflation. Charging locals tourist prices to pay the rent for institutional investors, with the accounting privilege of monetary and fiscal spigots, above-the-line credit on credit, something for nothing and nothing for something, can only have one result.
Poverty is no accident; it’s a threat. For the majority, employing government as a scapegoat makes sense. For labor, it’s just a system of counterweights; an automaton threatens to kill itself if you don’t give it a car with WiFi, what do you do?
Philanthropy is just a down payment on what is to be stolen next. Different people redistribute differently, but the automatons assume that no change in behavior, long-term natural resources for short-term money and long-term money for man-made resources to replace the former, will provide a better result than best, until nature sees enough.
A homosexual takes over the foodbank, immediately cuts my wife’s income in half, and gives her truck to a kid from LA, to support yet another drug operation; everyone loses, while rent inflation in all the components buries them all, brilliant. Funny, the number of people up here who drive by a foodbank truck being searched by cops and pay no mind, those who do, and outcomes.
There are two basic rules of marriage: heed the counsel of your spouse before all others and don’t invite others into your marriage. The US took Canada for granted, to become a superpower on the world stage, slaves to the past convincing themselves that they are masters of the future.
There is nothing new about teaching children that physical labor is bad, while telling others what to do is good, all chiefs and no indians, in a circular firing squad. There is a great deal of resentment in Canada for the US, like everywhere else, but you might want to begin there, and let China blow itself up, if it is determined to do so.
The actuarial ponzi blows itself up every time, in a bipolar positive feedback loop between the haves and have-nots. “In the End, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends.”
Russia, like all others, can only occupy at the cost of its own impoverishment, and America is easily the largest occupying force on the planet. Poverty is an act of government, of by and for the majority, regardless of representation, not an Act of God, and the only answer is personal responsibility.
Marriage is a business, the business of raising children, built on a foundation of love, sacrifice in a contract of faith, which cannot be replaced, whether you care to think about it that way or not, and the only person you can change is yourself. Spoil your grandchildren, but don’t interfere with their parents and expect your pension not to disappear with inflation.
Civil marriage is about the collective, not the couple, the lowest energy level form imprinted on the mind, circuit replication, baking communism, misdirection and viral growth patterns into the cake, as an efficient counterweight. If you look at it in terms of good and evil, instead of DNA, you are lost in a sea of gravity before you begin.
Of course the critters seek external security to assuage internal insecurity, and so measure consumption as production, producing the world you see, if you limit yourself accordingly. Warren Buffet built his replica on civil marriage; pensions are a problemsolution, surprise.
Poverty is a choice made by habit; arguing about the past as a means of ignoring the present, and not preparing for the future. Insert a double-sided mirror (2 Cs back to make, making up the multiplexer switch), and move forward until you have time to reconsider, by which time the problem will solve itself, if you have chosen priorities consistent with life.
The horse doesn’t need the cart, but the cart does need a horse, but don’t waste your time telling the communists that. The communists assume that they have an information advantage because they have more eyes, looking at the same thing, themselves.
I’m not going to leave my wife and child to feed the communists, but I will feed the communists if they understand their place, in History. If both sexes really want to work, the 20 hour workweek X 2 @ income 4X rent as a baseline isn’t negotiable.
Don’t send your kids to Public Education, a school for communism, expecting anything else. Obviously, the stock market is a collective of collectives, misrepresenting itself as a free market. From the perspective of labor, the banks have been closed for two generations; blow each other up, on the word of Trichet, a casino operator with the highest unemployment rate in History.
“a clear line and course,” crack me up.

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 14:00 | 6250352 Peter K
Peter K's picture

No it is not.

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 14:01 | 6250358 piratepiet2
piratepiet2's picture

For all bitter ZHers rooting for the eurozone to fall apart :

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-06/29/c_134366395.htm

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 14:56 | 6250653 M.B. Drapier
M.B. Drapier's picture

China has lots of money to invest, but it doesn't have unlimited money to lose on bad foreign investments: its foreign-infrastructure spree is already hitting problems with non-repayment, apparently: http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/04/will-the-aiib-one-day-matter/ .

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 15:12 | 6250722 piratepiet2
piratepiet2's picture

Thanks for the link, I will have to look at it later.

Of course they do not want to lose money, but this is not solely an economical investment issue but a strategic issue with a very broad and long-term significance.  China supports a multipolar world.  ( read : will aid in the survival of the EU )

At least, that is my understanding.  Or do you believe the timing of this article on Xinhua is coincidence ?   

 

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 15:14 | 6250755 Mike Masr
Mike Masr's picture

China is also a responsible owner of US Bonds, maybe +100 trillion dollars worth. So the responsible thing to do is not to fuck with China or get them pissed off. Ya think?   

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 15:18 | 6250771 piratepiet2
piratepiet2's picture

Exactly. 

But 100 trillion dollars ??  World GDP is about 60-70 trillion USD. 

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 15:11 | 6250744 Mike Masr
Mike Masr's picture

Fuck the EU. I hope that the Greek contagion brings down the entire EU. Fuck the IMF and the ECB.

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 15:13 | 6250751 piratepiet2
piratepiet2's picture

hope is not a strategy

Mon, 06/29/2015 - 15:30 | 6250835 Baronneke
Baronneke's picture

Greece # 1 to default.

Puerto Rico #2 to default.

 

Who's next ??

Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland or.........

 

Too much, far too much debt in the entire world. Not sustaineble, really Not !!

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