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For The Bookies The Referendum Outcome Is Clear: Paddy Power Pays Out For "Yes" Votes
The market may be scratching its head over the outcome of this Sunday's Greek referendum, soaring on the faintest trace of good news such as the report of Tsirpas' capitulation this morning then reluctantly selling off as the euphoria is rejected, but for the bookies the outcome is now clear: earlier today Ireland's Paddy Power announced it has "paid out five figures" in winnings to gamblers who bet that Greece will back a July 5 austerity referendum that may seal the nation’s future as part of the euro region.
Cited by Kathimerini, Paddy Power - Ireland’s largest bookmaker - said in an e-mail in Dublin on Wednesday that "Despite some polls suggesting it’s neck and neck, over the last few days we’ve seen enough to be convinced. In a race with two potential outcomes we’ve seen over 85 percent of money go one way and that’s massive."
It adds that gambling companies routinely pay out early on sporting events when they regard the result as a foregone conclusion, in part because it draws publicity and in part because gamblers often recycle winnings into other wagers.
Which is surprising because just a few hours earlier, a poll conducted between June 28-30 and published in the Efimerida ton Syntakton newspaper, showed 54 percent of those planning to vote in Sunday's referendum would oppose the bailout against 33 percent in favor.
According to Reuters, "a majority of Greeks would vote 'No' to the terms of a proposed bailout deal by foreign lenders but the lead narrowed significantly after banks were closed this week, according to an opinion poll published on Wednesday. However, a breakdown of results between those polled before and after Sunday's decision to close the banks and impose capital controls showed the gap narrowing."
More details on the poll:
Of those polled before the announcement of the bank closures, 57 percent said they would vote No against 30 percent for who would vote Yes. Of those polled after, the No's were at 46 percent against 37 percent for Yes.
The poll showed support for 'No' strongest among voters of the ruling leftist Syriza party (77 percent), the far-right Golden Dawn party (80 percent) and the Communist KKE (57 percent).
Support for 'Yes' was strongest among voters of the center-right New Democracy (65 percent), the pro-European centrist To Potami (68 percent) and the center-left Pasok (65 percent).
The poll, by the ProRata institute, showed 86 percent of those surveyed planned to vote, with 50 percent backing Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras' decision to hold a referendum with 38 percent against.
No votes were strongest among the unemployed (62 percent), and more No votes than Yes were polled in all categories classified, comprising entrepreneurs, the self-employed, public and private sector pensioners and employees and housewives.
In other words, despite the early payout, at least one poll has the "Oxi's" ahead despite their lead declining, a lead which will surely tumble if the ECB imposes haircuts on Greek deposits ahead of this weekend.
But the most confusing outcome would be if, as some have rumored, Tsipras announces he is witthdrawing the referendum when he makes his televized appearance before the Greek nation in a few minutes.
Will Paddy Power be forced to collect its payouts then? In 2003, Paddy Power paid out early on Arsenal winning the title, which was eventually won by Manchester United.
To be sure, the outcome of an error has far greater macroeconomic consequences this time around.
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Tsipras - "Sorry, Referendum is canceled - we have run out of money"
Sometimes I get the feeling all this Greek drama is being orchestrasted by the .01%
as part of a pump and dump world market sceme to con investers out of their money.
Headline should of read: Puddy power pays Out For "Yes" Votes.
fixed.
Paddy Power is famous for its marketing gags and this may very well be one of them. I remember that they once offered a bet whether the English FA Cup Final in the year ahead would be played at the Wembley Stadium (that was undergoing renovation at that time). Paddy Power didn't accept any further bets after a lot of bets against a final at Wembley were placed at bookmakers around the stadium - obviously by construction workers. Many observers supposed that this bet was a clever marketing move by Paddy Power which at that time caused a lot of headlines and (relatively) cheap marketing.
Sure, the whole thing is over a paltry $1 billion dollars or so. Even Dr Evil asked for $100 billion ransom payment.
At least PP isn't a bookie pretending to be a bank.
The Greeks are a bunch of worthless, communist, lowlife, slowbellies. If you are hoping for a challenge to TPTB from this crew you are wasting your time. They are a cadre of goobermint, teat sucking, castrated, cowards; who will never do anything but beg for more freebies. You have a better chance in Puerto Rico of finding someone willing to stand up to these fascist bankers. Are you listening very-fake-ass coward?
"12 One of themselves, even a prophet of their own, said, The Cretians are alway liars, evil beasts, slow bellies. 13 This witness is true."
Titus 1 King James Bible
http://www.brotherjohnf.com/puerto-rico-finance-minister-interview/
That finance minister video is absolutely hysterical. I watched it 5 times yesterday.
That video is from a famous spanish humour show ("Ratones Coloraos").
The supposed interviewed FinMin is a spanish humorist.
I think you're right about the zero hopes for this Syryza-Podemos movements being anything but a freak show.
At least, the ones appearing in the video you posted are real freak professional performers that do not pretend to be anything else.
They (the two freaks in the video) deserve respect. Not the case for the real FinMins at EU parliaments and institutions.
Bookies often do this for free publicity.
They can hedge the bet with another bookmaker, and the punters that get paid early mostly just put the payout on another bet.
Probably for just a few small bets. Scam.
Paddy Power found out who was counting the votes....
Paddy Power make enough on high frequency gambling machines, seriously these are a thing, to cover any bookmaking loses.
As with all UK/Irish bookies this is just a marketing ploy.
Bit of a difference bookies and bankers, one is at least honest about what they do for a living and don't pretend to be long term investments.
The House always wins.
It HAS to be a yes vote, or this is the first time people will vote for their own starvation.
Uh,,,,they do grow food in Greece. If you meant starved for cash, then you are correct
Man can't live on feta and olives.
man needs beer to...
Man lives on Puntang, they still have puntang in Greece or does that smell like spoiled Fetta and look like Mike Obama?
this was just one big disappointment!
or was it..?
DEFEATISME! I LOVE IT!!
BOW TO ME!
It's a publicity stunt, that's it. They don't take anymore bets.
Paddy lost all their Power when Martin McGuinness decided to share a Royal Buffet instead with Elizabeth Regina and the British Establishment.
I was here for a larger version of the thumbnail picture...
those green shorts seem so promissing
Bad joke time: what's the difference between a bookmaker and a banker? With a bookmaker if you attempt to bet millions on improbable odds they'll tell you to fuck off and come back sober, however if you attempt to bet millions on improbable odds with a banker he'll ask why you being so conservative for when you can bet even more.
Greece + "NO" referendum = Iceland
oops, that was a wrong call!