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Non-Seasonally-Adjusted ISM Manufacturing Plunges To 2015 Lows As Production Tumbles
Following Construction Spending's exuberant 2.2% MoM surge in April (revised to 2.1), May saw a fall-back-to-earth 0.8% gain (still better than expected). However, while Markit's Manufacturing survey tumbled, ISM's rose in May and now in June picked up again to 53.5 - its highest since January. Employment rose notably but New orders were only marginally higher and Production slowed. Rather stunningly, all the improvment in ISM is seasonal adjustments with the non-seasonally-adjusted data at its lowest since January. The question remains, is this good news enough to warrant a September rate cut - if we ignore everything else that is weak?
The excitment is over... but still rising
As ISM jumps in the face of Markit's survey tumble...
Under the covers the story is mixed at best...
As production plunged...
Wondering how ISM Manufacturing is so high? Simple - Seasonal Adjustments
Charts: Bloomberg
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Of course it's farking bullish good news. Duh.
Yep, we're approaching Keynesian perfection.......
No rate increase for at least a year despite a million warnings from the Fed
Let's not forget that US inflation numbers are completely fake - so real US GDP is much, much lower:
The Chapwood Index for 2014 was 9.7% and official CPI in the land of the free was only 0.8%. So the Nominal GDP of 5.6% for 2014 becomes real GDP of -4.1%.
The revised real GDP for years 2011 to 2013 worked out to -6.2%, -6.5%, -6.5% respectively.
What is the Chapwood Index?
"The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America. Updated and released twice a year, it reports the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation."
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-29/inaccurate-statistics-and-threa...
Good news or Bad news BTFD
Don't know what to say, my biz after a horrific Q1 yoy down nearly 30%, has now
ended H1 nearly 20% up yoy.
I'm getting seasick, and I've never been seasick.
Jesus christ, people are still issuing credit for new construction, what the fuck are they building?
Hotels, for one. I have family in the business. Incredible room rates. Two years ago, SFO had rooms, cheapest, Quality Inn low end, under 80 bucks. Now, 109 best.
Hotels, for one. I have family in the business. Incredible room rates. Two years ago, SFO had rooms, cheapest, Quality Inn low end, under 80 bucks. Now, 109 best.
Via Forexlive:
"
Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine down 144,300 in JuneOnline advertised vacancies fell 144,300 to 5,300,700 in June, according to the Conference Board. The May Supply/Demand rate stands at 1.59 unemployed for each advertised vacancy. There was a net decline of advertised job openings in the quarter."
Looks like a slowdown looming.
To paraphrase Johnny Cochran "If the numbers don't fit, then you must make up some seasonally adjusted bullshit. All numbers are surveys that are seasonally adjusted. Ask a question adjust for the time of year. If only we could seasonally adjust plants we could grow crops outside in Alaska in January.
They need to add tattoo parlors into the manufacturing PMI. The numbers would look much better. As a matter of fact payday loans would help too.
The question remains, is this good news enough to warrant a September rate cut?