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Next Steps For Greece: The Complete Post-Referendum Roadmap
As reported earlier this morning, a slim majority of Greeks now support a "no" vote on the referendum set for this weekend. As a reminder, it's as yet ucnclear precisely what it is that Greeks will be voting on given that, technically anyway, the last creditor proposal is now null and void after the country exited its second program after defaulting on Tuesday.
Nevertheless, the show will go on, or at least that's been the rhetoric out of Athens up until this morning and indeed, mutliple EU officials have signaled that no discussions will be possible until the referendum in complete.
So, as we await Tsipras' response to reports which indicate he is set to concede to creditors' proposals (which may, some suspect, lead to the PM cancelling the referendum altogether) in exchange for a deal that rescues his country from the brink of economic oblivion, Barclays and Bloomberg are out with referendum roadmaps.
From Barclays:
Other euro area governments seem to favour a referendum now, as it will finally bring greater clarity about the Greek government’s mandate. The referendum is, thus, now about euro membership and PM Tsipras future. A ‘YES’ vote would free the path for snap elections or a ‘national unity government’ (probably followed by snap elections later in the year). There are limited references for the likely referendum outcome, but recent developments may favour a ‘YES’ vote.
The default on the IMF has non-negligible consequences. The IMF will no longer be able to make any further disbursements to Greece until the arrears are cleared. This is particularly important in case of a ‘NO’ vote on Sunday: without additional official loans from Europe, which could help clear the arrears to the IMF, and being in default with the IMF, the Greek government will not be able to rely on external assistance and would be very unlikely to regain market access.
And from Bloomberg:
'No' Wins
If Greek citizens reject the creditors' proposal, an exit from the euro area would become the most likely scenario. An exit from the currency union has never happened before and there is no established process in the Europeantreaties. It could get messy. It's hard tosee how a deal could be found in thecontext of a No vote, with Greekauthorities coming back at the negotiation table with an even less conciliatorystance. Exasperation and fatigue are already running high on the other side of the table after five months of fruitless negotiations. Creditors are losing patience — and not only in Germany. If new negotiations were to fail, the Greek authorities could choose to leave the currency union directly or hold a new referendum on leaving. These two paths are surrounded by high uncertainty given the current state of the Greek economy, held in stasis by capital controls and bank holidays. Civil unrest would be likely.
'Yes' Wins
In this case, it is hard to see how Tsipras could stay in power since he is campaigning for No. In an interview yesterday, he said: "If the people vote yes, then the referendum outcome will be completely respected but I will not serve it". Fresh elections would probably follow, though he or Syriza representatives could try to strike a deal in the interim, to respect the people's decision. Talks could take a while, but having a majority of the Greek people on their side would give the creditors a stronger impetus to negotiate a new bailout. In this context, an ejection of Greece from the euro area — whoever triggered it — would be the worst possible scenario. With Greeks having effectively voted to find a way to stay in the euro, an exit would call into question the democratic foundations of the euro project itself.
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Nothing is going to change until Greece defaults as debt is too high to be paid off. Same applies for Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Italy, France and the land of the free (debt and unfunded liabilities of over $1,400,000 per taxpayer).
Austerity not enough to save Greece - leaked IMF documentshttp://rt.com/news/270853-greek-debt-unsustainable-imf/
Spain, Italy and Portugal must be taking notes as the EU/Germany are setting the rules of default. Handling the default of Greece is one thing, handling three or four at a time is another.
Next step for Greece is to rename itself Ben Dover'n Humpalot
Greece: GET A JOB.
No, you aren't such special little snowflakes that you DESERVE everyone else to pay for you.
OK, many on ZH truly believe that other people should pay for their excesses (Obama voter much?).
Grow up. Get a job. Pay YOUR bills.
Or, vote for the Obamaites and enjoy your Road to Serfdom.
Don't be creepy cracker.
Such situations have long histories. Nations are neither built nor destroyed in a day.
Look at your own country, wherever you live.
Greeks are blameless....
Other forces are at play.
Read this:
https://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2015/07/01/where-to-ok-actually-how-did...
You state the obvious regarding time. Yes, it is completely the Greek's fault and it is what they do. It is standard socialist policy and results. Greece spends too much then defaults roughly every 25 years (this is part of the not in a day thing).
As I stated, the U.S. is heading there as well. It is the fault of the ignorant (via government education) and/or lazy/greedy voters.
"via government education", exactly.
And for how many generations?
And how many mountains of lies.
In this day and age of illusion and delusion, truth would be a base shattering, totally, abject cognitive dissociation triggered mind-freeze for 96% of the world's population.
Unless chance meeetings, books or circumstances at some point in life bring us to the path of seeking truth, most are just forced into being instruments at affect, instead of being the engines of cause we are MADE and MEANT to be.
Cannot lay any blames. The only way ahead is action based. Taking steps. The past is ALREADY DISTILLED IN OUR BONES.
And education is ultimately the job of parents. Therefore it is the fault of parents, not educating their children about the real world when government "education" systems intentionally fail to do so. How to fix it - incredibly difficult but the first step is for parents to care enough about their children's futures to learn basic economics and teach them the failures (repeatedly and always) of socialism/communism.
Greece just need to switch to the Ruble and the Yuan and return to the path of prosperity.
ORI, people can choose to look for what's real or not, regardless of upbringing or education etc. It may take an event like: not being able to eat, or fearing for one's life to reach this point of clarity; but you still have the choice to do so at any point along the way. The problem with absolving people of their "responsibility to think" is that too many megalomainiacs are ready and willing to enslave all of us using this human weakness as the key.
Given the opportunity, most will seek the free/easy way out and when those in the establishment tells them that this is good and normal we get the Western World as we see it today. We will all be fully subjugated if we begin to just let people off the hook.
DON'T GIVE PEOPLE A PASS FOR BEING "BRAINWASHED" WE CAN'T MAKE IT ACCEPTABLE TO BE A LEMMING JUST BECAUSE GOVERNANCE WOULD LIKE US TO BE!
Kronos ;)
Perhaps it's my limited world vewe, 98%?
Hi Creepy A. Cracker,
Look deeper, the old 'isms have been superceded, they exist now only in people's minds to keep them at each other.
Kleptoligarchism has taken over, the merger of corporations/banks/insurers with government of any stripe, with the goal of the many serving the few.
Like the Aristocracies of old, but with bigger lies and guns. None of us will be rewarded for our labors until it is all torn down, starting with the banks.
So it's the common Greek's fault that their government is like every other government in the world, and they should be made to suffer for the decisions of unaccountable beaurocrats who spent like.... unaccountable beaurocrats and saddled them (the Greek people) with debt before they were even born?
Unaccountable... you like this word.
They have elections don't they? They have police, don't they?
Because unless a guy pocketed it for himself, who do you think it was spent on? They voted for the guy who promised them everything and to get relected, he had to deliver. When he didn't or the next guy promised more, he got in. Mediterranean types are generally lazy and greedy.
"saddled them (the Greek people) with debt before they were even born?"
Un huh and those poor babies, who get to enjoy the fruits of things, they never earned... Yeah you forget that part... intentionally. No benefits to being Greek ever? Because a good portion of the world, would vomit at that.
They fucked themselves and now they think they can renege then go on like nothing happened. No, it's time for the consequences.
So it's the common Greek's fault
Yes, Who voted them into power? And yes it is the common Americans fault too.
"Greeks are blameless" 10/10 my good troll.
YO Creepy Cracker !
Give me a monetary system that I can believe in.
I am tired of being a SLAVE but you are welcome to be my SLAVE you FOOL !
Gold standard with free market capitalism.
LOL to the "slave" crap. I am not wealthy nor am I anyone's "slave." Although I do work for what I want and don't demand that the government take from others to give to me.
I hear the undercurrent in your question .... but every nation will now have to answer the same question .. "Are we really a nation?"
So much for our progress and we can't even answer few fundamental questions... that each perosn is supposed to know as part of their own responsibility.
I put my blog with a hope. Not the "Hope and Change" kind of hope.
http://just-a-thought-from-thinair.blogspot.com/
You sound like those "Job creators" of ancient times: the Pharaohs.
"If you want more food, you need to work harder. Make more bricks, and speed up the construction of my Pyramid (scheme), you lazy dogs!"
Must be nice to live in a B&W universe.
25% unemployment rate in Greece. There are many who want to work any job but can't find one.
Due to the Greek government and their anti-free market policies. They got what they voted for. Similar situatiuon with Spain, Cuba (although no voting in the Cuba paradise), et al. The U.S. is heading there quickly.
Creepy, define "Free Market". Give historic examples. Be sure to include Monetary systems used, trade, and whether growth was fueled by own resources, or by taking over other people's lands/resources.
That way we'll know if you actually know something, or are just bloviating.
[tick, tock]
It's interesting how entire ations are now being asked to vote on a YES/NO ballot that can change their entire lives going forward.
Scotland recently comes to mind.
Now Greece.
When I look at India, what really shows up is a pre EU style experiment in taking a raft of independent states (the erstwhile Indian princely states and kingdoms) with diverse cultures and codes and languages and economic systems beign shoved together under a hard border in India's case and being forced to swallow a pablum that you are all now somehow united.
United to better spill your sheep blood on a flase border.
India, USSR...they have tried it on large scales before.
That is one of the reasons India is a basket case and this view very unwelcome in India. I tell everyone I meet that we SHOULD not be a nation.
Pays to know your history and herstory too.
Because the devil, is in the de-tale ;-)
The IMF's Christine Lagarde is a botoxed, tanning salon dimwit who obeys her New World Order organ grinders. After her fiasco in Greece, expect the French courts to indict her for her corruption when she was France's Finance Minister, giving some $300 million to Bernard Tapie, three times more than he was due in a rigged legal settlement.
What would you do? She or he has all the wealth and privileges you cannot imagine. She has her family taken care of and does little to nothing for it. Sounds like a dream job and great life-style and since you are taking care "of your own", then you feel like you are doing the moral thing because we, by nature, put ourselves before others when the opportunity presents itself and definitively when given the choice. Because the ego gets inflated; you begin to actually believe that you did something to deserve it because you are superior. I am not speaking of "you" specifically.
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That is to neglect the fact that you had nothing to do with all of your beginning, where you would be born, when you would be born, to whom your parents would be and on and on,,,God made those choices and now you can understand why it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a wealthy person to enter into the Kingdom.
There is no intent in paying off any debt; it is a useful device to control people and break up the moral fabric of any society that is entangled by its web. They only need to keep up on the interest payments, thus the Federal Reserve System.
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Why would a nation pay a private bank to print a nations currency and then owe that entity interest when they, the nation, could have printed the currency without interest? Answer: Debt enslaves individuals, cultures, societies, nations and the world and puts the power on control of those who create the money out of nothing. The faith part is done through the propaganda and false flags of fear. It demonstrates the level of corruption that exists within the 3 branches of government controlled by the unseen 4th branch. This is no surprise as an ancient book told us all about these things and the solution to the problem. People always look for solutions in all the wrong places.
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Simple and very effective strategy and after it runs its course; you cause severe pain and come up with the solution, which is the same as the one before...that is a "reset".
The referendum is being done with paper balots, so whatever the result will be, it will be so by design.
Paper ballots or electronic; the winner belong to the people who count the votes..paper or electronic. That was what the 2000 "Hanging Chad" selection was all about; get people to demand electronic voting and the outcome is 51/49 every time.
It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything.Joseph Stalin
Read more at http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/j/joseph_stalin.html#WHZAIBIsq...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEzY2tnwExs (Rigged US Elections)
Aaron Russo: "America: Freedom to Fascism" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6ayb02bwp0
One of his last interviews (Feminism, RFID, 9/11, & War on Terror Hoax) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGAaPjqdbgQ
Because electronic systems aren't also ripe for abuse?
I still don't really understand why he is backing off now
I agree. It is baffling... definitely he knows something we don't
Its all rumors at this stage. Dont forget its a disinformation war out there.
Judge by actions, not words. I.e. if the referendum is called off.
more likely the Troika knows something about Tsipras that we don't know.
It's like a game of Clue:
Tsipras, on the cliff edge, with the a hind leg of a sheep in each of his wader boots...
Standard Disclaimer: Because blackmail works every time.
Death by a thousand cuts, or run for your life.
Decisions, decisions.
i used to be indecisive, but now I'm not so sure.
omit the bullshit. You will be just fine.
But it all is bullshit.
If I couldn't joke about it, I would go on a rampage.
I expect the worst in people, and am rarely disappointed..
What is there for Greece to choose if we really are an intelligent species, so that premise is wrong.
Your middle line about expecting the worst in people is a real tell.
Business, busnesses and businessmen.....all infected with the lie-germ.
I used to laugh and point it out to salesmen when they'd reach the end of a failing sales meeting and say, "look, I'm going to be straight with you" and I'd always stop them and ask them why they straightened up so late in the show.
It is all bullshit which is disappointing. And yes I find most people disgusting yet I try and love everyone. I hope and I hate that word in any catastrophic event , people will step up and become great again.
Greece is in the same boat as everyone in this world. They just happen to be first in line at this point. We have all done this to ourselves as we could end this show in one day. We outnumber them yet most are attached and drunk on the system in place. They want to keep it.
I use to allow all this truth to depress me. Not anymore. Life is too short. All I can do is try and change my community and family by informing them of the truth and lead by example.
Keep your head up as you are not alone my friend.
Bloody Socialism that diluted our strenghs, perverted our People, rottens society to the core.
Better War than this disgusting decadence.
Aborts our children .... imports menacing third world Muslims .... at our expense !
Dogs and cats living together... you can see where this is going.
If the referendum continues, do not understimate the corruption with the central bankers. It would not be beyond their limits to do "whatever it takes" and rig the vote. This would effectively get them what they want, and faciliate a coup of the Greek government with a more cooperative regime without a shot fired.
I can only hope and pray that if it goes to a vote, that democracy prevails and corruption is kept muted. I am not so sure that will be the case.
Greece is falling all around
It's time we were on our way.
Thanks to you, we're much obliged
for this unpleasant stay.
But now it's time for us to go.
This debt monsoon lights our way.
For now I feel the chains, and with it pain, and it's holding us all at bay.
Sometimes I grow so tired, but I know I've got one thing I got to do...
Gamble on,
And now's the time, the time is now, to right what's wrong.
I'm gonna save our world, I gotta stiff my girl, on my way.
We've been this way ten years to the day,
Gamble On,
Gotta slay the queen of my bad dreams.
Hey, they defaulted .... end of story !
I still like the part about voters approving or rejecting central bank policies in a referendum. When do we vote on the FED?
Yes, now that we've destroyed your country through failed socialist policies we now will give you the choice to choose the better of two evils. On one hand, debt slavery, on the other even more poverty and misery for the unforseeable future. Love me some democracy bitchez!
So according to the charts, anything is possible.
What country in the world has not a similar problem? Here is how socialism works. John and Nathan both work 50 hours per week and Nathan gets twice the work done than John. John gets the same job reviews and subsequent raise (little as it is) as Nathan. Nathan wakes up to this reality and begins to do the same work as John. Nathan now gets promoted and John gets a poor review for not working at the previous level even though it was as well as Johns. John becomes more disenfranchised. He forgets his work ethic and turns from it in discouragement.
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Federal employees are perfect examples of how this plays out. 1/3 do more harm than good and should be fired & would have never been hired in any other business. 1/3 do enough good work to break even given their mistakes and 1/3 do a good job and make up the lost ground of the bottom third and help the middle third to improve. Literally we could cut the Federal workforce by 50% and have no negative material affect if the right people were identified and cut. However, because of moronic hiring/firing laws designed to alienate the better workers and give the "free-lunch" to others; they cannot do what is right even if they wanted. Socialism breaks up the moral ethics at every turn and we see it in almost every aspect of society.
Bobby Gindahl was looking sharp on FOX .... he actually cut government employment in LA .... it's a start !
Just 50%?
Just to prove your point, read some of the responses from government employees here on being labelled non-essential.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/sep/29/nonessential-label-makes...
Its sounds like as of today Pensioners are getting only 30% of their pensions.....that is all..so the so called red line of a pension cut just happened..but not by the EU...by the fact that greece has no money...funny how that hits you in the face llike a 2x4......idiots....you deserve all that is coming to you Greece..and its not much in the way of imports....or food...or gas....lol....I love to see Socialists fail....and how they try to explain it...that is the next scene in this play...the blame game as people starve...
"Thank you sir, may I have another?"
There will be NO GREXIT ever.
The Syriza government is backing down. The EU/IMF were going to go to economic lawfare. The IMF supposedly had US Travel Operators withholding payments already to Greek resorts and hotels. Next they would have had sanctions put on them blocking the sale of their olive oil and fruits.
The Greeks are going to be economic serfs. It appears Junker has again done something that not even Hitler could do: tell the Greeks to take it up the ass and like it.
That could be, but there are plenty of folks in Russia and China that enjoy olive oil and fruit. The demand might be such that the Greeks send all of their produce east without any left over for europe. That shouldn't be a problem for america's euro colonies. The huns can replace the greek olive oil with the abundant supplies coming out of german olive groves.
Of course, the Greeks could reciprocate with their own sanctions like barring German auto sales and other products.
The europeans are all happy with how well their Russian sanctions worked and how it helped their economy. Ask any farmer.
Of course, a US travel ban would hurt Greece since Americans are doing so well, they all can take expensive vacations to Greece. Just kidding ... American serfs are lucky if they can afford 2 days at the YMCA in Newark.
C'mon EU is fked , lets get rid of it.
Euro is broken EU is malfunctional, who the Fk wants to live under such a regime.
I will vote No to the UK referendum, UK should leave the sinking ship called EU.
According to some, everything that happens is somehow the fault of socialism (something they can't even define). Since the right wing took control of the US in 1980, the planet has been in a downward spiral of perpetual war and corporate plunder. That has nothing to do with socialism, it has everything to do with unregulated crony capitalism and corruption.
Thank you Ronnie, for getting the ball rolling ... and thanks to all of the other treasonous cocksuckers that followed you.