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"Strong Fundamentals" Meme Destroyed As US Manufacturing PMI Slows To Its Weakest Since October 2013

Tyler Durden's picture




 

US Manufacturing PMI's final print for June at 53.6 (slightly above its preliminary 53.4 print) is its lowest since October 2013. The survey has fallen almost non-stop since the end of QE3. Under the covers, data was mixed, softer output growth was offset by a slight pick-up in the pace of new business gains and job creation, but Manufacturers indicated a slowdown in production growth for the third month running during June. As Markit's echief economist notes, “Policymakers will be concerned about the unbalanced nature of growth, and in particular the loss of export and investment drivers, and will want to see growth pick up again in coming months before committing to higher interest rates.”

 

Worst since Oct 2013...

 

As Markit explains,

June data indicated a slower improvement in overall business conditions across the U.S. manufacturing sector, with softer output growth offsetting a slight pick-up in the pace of new business gains and job creation. The latest survey indicated that subdued export demand remained a key factor weighing down overall new order growth, as highlighted by a fall in new work from abroad for the third month running. Meanwhile, input cost inflation picked up in June, but output charge inflation moderated since the previous month.

 

The seasonally adjusted final Markit U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) registered 53.6 in June, down from 54.0 in May and the lowest reading since October 2013.

 

Manufacturers indicated a slowdown in production growth for the third month running during June. Reports from survey respondents suggested that subdued export sales and weaker investment spending patterns in the energy sector had weighed on output growth.

Things changed after the end of QE3...

Commenting on the final PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said:

“Purchasing managers are reporting the slowest rate of manufacturing expansion for over a year and a half, suggesting that the economy is slowing again.

 

“The slowdown is largely linked to a third consecutive monthly fall in exports, in turn attributed by many companies to the strong dollar undermining international competitiveness.

 

“Investment spending also appears to be waning, with recent months seeing the slowest growth of new orders for business equipment and machinery for two years. The investment slowdown suggests companies are becoming more risk averse and cautious in their spending. The current impressive rate of factory job creation could soon likewise wane unless the outlook improves.

 

“The good news is that the export and investment drags are being offset by an ongoing surge in consumer spending, which is in turn most likely linked to falling prices in recent months. An upturn in growth of new orders for consumer goods helped drive an increase in overall manufacturing orders books during the month, providing a ray of hope that output growth will stabilise at its current modest pace.

 

“Policymakers will be concerned about the unbalanced nature of growth, and in particular the loss of export and investment drivers, and will want to see growth pick up again in coming months before committing to higher interest rates.”

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 07/01/2015 - 09:56 | 6257871 Racer
Racer's picture

Can't consider even a tiny rise in interest rates after how many YEARS now!

Wed, 07/01/2015 - 10:01 | 6257902 Osmium
Osmium's picture

But Yellen said they were going to raise in June, no wait, September.

Wed, 07/01/2015 - 09:58 | 6257888 Lady Jessica
Lady Jessica's picture

"US Manufacturing"

That phrase just totally cracks me up every single time.

Wed, 07/01/2015 - 10:01 | 6257900 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

What does the U.S. manufacture anymore besides munitions, soda pop and french fry holders?

Wed, 07/01/2015 - 10:02 | 6257905 Osmium
Osmium's picture

Burgers

Wed, 07/01/2015 - 10:08 | 6257941 besnook
besnook's picture

don't forget propaganda. there is a lot of lies beng manufactured by the propaganda factory in dc and on wall street through the media marketing machine.

Wed, 07/01/2015 - 10:11 | 6257955 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Debt.

Wed, 07/01/2015 - 10:18 | 6257991 atomp
atomp's picture

Consent?

Wed, 07/01/2015 - 10:37 | 6258088 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Progressives

Wed, 07/01/2015 - 10:05 | 6257921 besnook
besnook's picture

this is nothing a 40% haircut to the value of the dollar won't cure, and you can bet they are thinking about it.

Wed, 07/01/2015 - 10:09 | 6257931 khakuda
khakuda's picture

The worst part is that it just encourages them to double down for the 50th time on ZIRP and consider more QE.

It is pretty clear, the economy no longer "functions" without more debt, priced cheaply that will never be repaid.  I guess they should stop calling it debt and start calling it a gift or a handout.  Hard to see how these policies don't lead to more inflation and then disastrous things like price controls as the inflation becomes untenable for the majority.  Venezuela here we come.

Wed, 07/01/2015 - 10:08 | 6257942 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Everything seems to be in decline except for employment.

Sales, Profits, GDP, Production, you name it.

 

And somehow we are supposed to believe that companies with sales and profits falling are now hiring more than they have in a decade?

I do not think so.

 

Wed, 07/01/2015 - 10:08 | 6257946 Thisisbullishright
Thisisbullishright's picture

They will NEVER, EVER raise rates!

Now buy the fucking dip!

 

Wed, 07/01/2015 - 10:13 | 6257967 matinee55
matinee55's picture

Help

Market watch -U.S. manufacturers grew in June at the fastest rate since the start of 2015, a survey of executives found. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index rose to 53.5% last month from 52.8% in May, matching its highest level of this year. The index was also above the 53.2 forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Readings over 50% indicate more companies are expanding instead of shrinking. The employment gauge jumped 3.8 points to 55.5%. The ISM's new-orders index edged up to 56.0% from 55.8%.

Zerohedge -

US Manufacturing PMI's final print for June at 53.6 (slightly above its preliminary 53.4 print) is its lowest since October 2013. The survey has fallen almost non-stop since the end of QE3. Under the covers, data was mixed, softer output growth was offset by a slight pick-up in the pace of new business gains and job creation, but Manufacturers indicated a slowdown in production growth for the third month running during June. Completely opposite reviews - I am so confused!


Wed, 07/01/2015 - 11:43 | 6258389 fremannx
fremannx's picture

The credit markets are collasping worldwide... just as expected.

 

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/anatomy-of-a-bubble-how-the-federal-r...

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