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"What If Berlin And Frankfurt Do Not Budge" - How Varoufakis Saw The "Worst Case Scenario"
Over a year ago, and long before he became the mascot for fraught negotiations between Greece and its creditors, Yanis Varoufakis penned a lengthy essay on what might happen should the Greek government decide to stand firm in the face of pressure from Brussels, Frankfurt, and Berlin.
Earlier today we learned that in fact, Greece will stick to its negotiating position even in default and will remain defiant to the end, or at least until the voters who swept PM Tsipras and Varoufakis into office indicate at the ballot box that concedeing the Syriza campaign mandate is an acceptable outcome. With the government urging Greeks to vote "no", the Tsipras and Varoufakis' gambit will be put to the test next week, or perhaps even as early as this afternoon when the ECB could decide to effectively bring the Greek banking sector to its knees.
In this context, we bring you Yanis Varoufakis' vision of the endgame, straight from the embattled FinMin himself:
That Greece has the right and the opportunity to deploy these bargaining cards there is no doubt. The important question is this: What if Berlin and Frankfurt do not budge? What if they tell Athens to ‘go jump of the tallest cliff’? The Greek government currently claims that it has a budget surplus. While I strongly doubt this claim, I suspect that a small primary surplus can be concocted through some additional cost cutting and a leximin squeeze of top public sector incomes downwards (without affecting the lowest incomes, pensions and benefits). That should suffice to allow the Athens government to meet its needs during any medium term standoff with Berlin and Frankfurt, as the Greek state will need no financing either from the official sector or from the money markets. In short, the answer to a German “Go jump” can be: “We shall not jump but we shall stay rock solid within the Eurozone and behind our demand for a debt conference. Just watch us.”
Berlin and Frankfurt will, undoubtedly, be furious. They will issue a variety of threats, including the suspension of structural fund flows from Brussels. But the real battleground will be the banks. As they did with Cyprus, where they threatened the government with an immediate suspension of the island nation’s ELA, so too in the case of Greece they will threaten to pull the plug on the Greek banks. Two points need to be made here. First, the Greek banks no longer hold any Greek government debt, which means that their collateral with the European System of Central Banks cannot be downgraded legally. Secondly, Frankfurt will have to think twice before it issues the threat of bending its own rules to close down Greek banks – since doing this would threaten to engulf the whole of the Periphery’s banking system into another cascading panic.
Confronted with such a reality, I have good cause to hope that Berlin will prefer to accommodate the Greek government and to look with a great deal more ‘kindness’ the ‘request’ for a debt relief conference. And if it does not, and wishes to bring the Eurozone down with it, let it do its worst, I say.
With Brussels and especially Berlin having now run fresh out of "accommodation", we shall see shortly if the ECB intends to "pull the plug."
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BTFD AG. Period.
"Confronted with such a reality, I have good cause to hope that Berlin will prefer to accommodate the Greek government and to look with a great deal more ‘kindness’ the ‘request’ for a debt relief conference."
Has this guy really never met a GS banker???
it's not nice to fool with Mother SDR
hugs,
chrissie
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9q6QkUaXx_A
The flavoring ingredient for margarine has historically been a laxative. Just FYI.
The worst case scenario is the total collapse of the EU.
Short and medium term, that is very bad news. Long term, however, it is good news, as we need to get rid of the parasitic supra national organizations.
So essentially exactly what I said -- Kamikaze economics.
I sure wish somebody would explain what is sooooo 'scary' about Greece doing exactly what Iceland did?
Answer how much direct and indirect exposure Douchebank has to Greece. I really don't know, but I do know that if it is big enough, it'll take the banking sector out globally. Which means that goods and services stop crossing borders. And Iceland did its thing when CBs still had dry powder. We're already at ZIRP/NIRP with various CBs using QE. What are they going to do in the face of another systemic banking crisis?
Print, moar, again.
They're already printing. If we get a banking crisis, they'll have to print so much that it destroys currencies. They'll lose their power.
They will come to the conclusion that they have no alternative.
Hey, when all youse gots is a hammer (printing press)...
This is why having central banks that are Privately owned is so dangerous to a nations sovereignty. They hold control over one of the fabrics of our society.
Why specify "privately owned". All central banks are bad for economic and personal freedom.
As if anything "publically" owned actually belongs to the public or even exists for the benefit of the public.
Public or private, central banks hold too much power.
no, thats the best case scenario (and I can say that as I live in EU). Many people here would thank Greece for totally collapsing this totalitarian shit called EU already!
Fuck the IMF BIS FED and Crown!
Default on odious debt. We never signed for it. Make the People who did Work it of in a salt mine.
Long Physical.
RIPS
This way or another both Alexis and Yanis deserve our respect.
Respect is earned.
I am still hoping for Putin to be the spoiler.
Me too, but I'm of the opinion that he will instead be the leader of the New "New World Order," being the only sane option for shelter as the West disintegrates into pure war and fascism.
How much of the world's population falls under the governance of the BRICS/SCO member states?
Demographics alone will be the end of G7 rule.
Putin will go for the best advantage for Russia. I think they could gain with a careful push toward the BRICS for Greece, but I'm on the outside looking in, so YMMV......
Not quite. Only the Top 20% of respect is earned (at higher Cognitive levels).
The other 80% is always based on Fear (at Primal levels).
I see what you say, but I think that that lower 80% is not "respect". Looks like it, but it isn't. It's concealed hatred.
FinMin Varoufakis has earned plenty of respect:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNItYoJhgmk
Thanks, this is a very informative, broad-ranging interview on the European issues--it's more than 2 minutes long! Varoufakis explains himself better than anyone else does. I agree he's done an impressive job, in and out of costume.
Yes, but what happens if they lose the referendum?
There is a good chance of this according to previous opinion polls on wether the Greeks want to stay in the Euro/EU.
If they vote yes to the conditions of the troika, then the Greek people deserve what comes their way .When they vote they should take in to consideration the long as well as short term implications of their vote for themselves and their fellow citizens.
What? No mention of the $54 trillion in Deutsche Bank's derivative portfolio that will collapse as the Eurozone collapses?
German GDP is only $3.6 trillion a year by comparison.
I think that was implied in the line, "But the real battleground will be the banks."
Also missing was any discussion of Goldman's role in the intentional creation of this disaster when they helped Greece hide the debt in order to qualify for admission into the EU. Failing to recognize this might have improperly given Varoufakis his false hope, not realizing that Greece was setup to fail from the start.
Greece seemingly is going to be the sacrificial lamb to create a Euro crisis that can only be resolved with "extraordinary measures." A crisis which, of course, will be used to create the mandate for the fiscal union that they were unable to achieve via sophistry and the ballot box.
Yes, I suspect that their next lie will be that the only way to provide security to the world is to dispose of all country borders and create a one-world government that will ensure fair and equal treatment for all (of the slaves).
They have to allow the people to tear down the system that they hate and then come crawling back to be saved.
I think that initially borders and puppet governments will be kept for window dressing, while any power they may have had is ceded to the supranational entities via "free trade agreements," UN bodies, and the all powerful BIS (Which, having full immunity, answers to no other entity on the planet.)
Eventually though, nationalism will be seen as superfluous and counter-productive by the ever indoctrinated youth who will come into power as the old nationalists die off. Which itself isn't much more than the rural conservatives vs. the urban progressives fighting for their style of government.
Which means that there will be plenty of bloody civil wars first before we reach the "Age of Aquarius" of one-world government.
I always question this derivative collapse scenario. There may $1 quadrillion of these instruments in the market, but they don't all go the same way. I'm gueesing that like most bookies, issuers want as close to a 50/50 break down on these products. 50% betting X will happen, and 50% betting anti-X will happen. The dealers just want the juice, but also don't want to be wiped out so they'll try to balance it.
We'll soon see how well they did.
The problem with derivatives is that none of the risk calculations take into account the possibility of one of the counterparties going under. They implicitly assume that nobody is going out of business. If a counterparty goes under, you have $600 trillion or $1.4 quadrillion or whatever the real number brought to a screeching halt.
They won't mention GS, because while they did the magical spreadsheets the EU not only allowed it, but also strongly encouraged it and GS knows where the bodies are buried.....
Gee, it's almost as if the world is truly run by the mafia, huh?
Naaa, the Mafia would do a better job......
+1 Does explain why the ECB is beating this dead Trojan horse that is Greece - a horse pushed through their gates by Goldman. They can mandate that fiscal union all they want but it too will be a farce.
No doubt it will be a farce. But of course, that is of little concern to them, as their only interest is consolidation of power (otherwise shit might break in a manner not of their liking).
Meanwhile, the farce will give us little people something important to fight over.
"Also missing was any discussion of Goldman's role in the intentional creation of this disaster when they helped Greece hide the debt in order to qualify for admission into the EU. Failing to recognize this might have improperly given Varoufakis his false hope, not realizing that Greece was setup to fail from the start."
I seriously doubt that Y. Varoufakis isn't well aware, fully aware, truly aware of his predecessors' 2001 walk down the aisle with Antigone Loudiadis of Goldman. I don't agree with you that Varoufakis is harbouring "false hopes"; indeed, he appears to me to be a consummate realist with an astute understanding of ALL the facts 'on the ground'. He is a brilliant negotiator and thus far a real straight-shooter. Given what he has had to work with, thanks to his predecessors, I think Varoufakis has been fucking amazing.
If you haven't seen this, please do listen to him:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNItYoJhgmk
I posted it above as well. 2 downvotes? I'd like to see them downvote Varoufakis to his face.
Eeeek, copy.
It's bigger than $54 trillion, last I heard.
>>>
And if it[Berlin] does not, and wishes to bring the Eurozone down with it, let it do its worst, I say.
<<<
Greece's departure from the EUR-zone will not bring down the EUR-zone.
_Maybe_ it was true in 2014, not true now.
The only thing Greece has going for it is that Merkel _thinks_ it might bring down the EUR-zone.
And, personally, I'm not that sure she does, any more...
Anybody claiming to know what might happen is a fool.
The derivatives, their owners,and counterparty solvency are totally opaque.
Running through a minefield, blindfold, trying to outrun the explosions is the nearest analogy.
Question is, just how big of a minesweeper can the BIS/IMF/etc... build?
Sure, it will impoverish 99% of people worldwide, but hey, that's known as a win-win for statists seeking to enslave dependent populations.
I'm curious as to the real destructive effect of "derivatives" Certainly it will cause turmoil, but doesn't one institution win, when another loses? Won't it just lead to a major shuffling of asset ownership? Kind of like the world's CEO's paying poker with their companies. Up close, on a corporate level it looks bad, but from a macro-economic standpoint, it's just wealth changing hands.
Obama, Merkel, Hollande et al were most concerned when the private TBTF banks were first to suffer a default. Now that much of the debt loss risk has been transferred to the PUBLIC (IMF etc.),
they indeed may have reduced concern about default.
However, they (include NATO) still do NOT want (will not allow) Greece to pivot to Russia,
and would still like to "privatize" Greek assets, islands, etc.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/07/01/wall-street-and-the-greek-financi...
im not sure the creditors and derivitives holders will see it the same way you do, but I guess they could always print 54,000,000,000,000 to square the books.
A European union? - what a joke! Any married man can tell you that a union of two people is tenuous and arduous and they're talking about a union of nations? Pleeeeeezzzzee.....
Imagine multiple wives asking for your credit card. Probablay get a little frustrating. Might even lead a guy to taking out more and more credit.
Could it be...? That ...
Varoufakis has got balls?Don't get your hopes up Caitlyn.
So, instead of "wishful thinking", "hallucination" and "cloud 9" now we say "he's got balls"? There's no chance in hell that the Greek government (ANY Greek government) can run a primary surplus. The moment they do, they will be voted out of their seats. They say Democracy has no dead-ends, I say this version of democracy IS a dead-end in itself.
The people figured out that they could vote themselves benefits from the public coffers and the bankers figured out that they could run one helluva ponzi on the backs of nations. Dead end indeed.
So they intend to wipe or reduce the debt across the whole EZ? Nice. Good luck with that.
dup
USA can guarantee it all - problem solved. After guaranteeing $300 trillions or so of gambling de- . . . er, bank-owned derivatives, a few hundred billion is chicken feed to Uncle Sugar.
Varoufakis made the mistake of thinking that Greece actually mattered in the entire scheme of things. I think the Troika actually believed that too at the time. And now that we are at the brink, the Troika coming to the realization that a Grexit isn't really all that bad.
Grexit will probably be a nightmare - legally. If a Grexit scenario occurs they'll still be cleaning the mess ten years from now. It will also by necessity create a legal roadmap for exiting the EZ, something which is no doubt a terrifying idea to the architects.
A Grexit would be wasting a perfectly good crisis, and thus won't happen.
Remember, this crisis was intentionally created by Goldman in 2001.
http://www.risk.net/risk-magazine/feature/1498135/revealed-goldman-sachs...
As always, this is about turning the screws in order to force the fiscal union that the EU has to have to survive a little longer.
Globalization, bitchez!
Exactly, the set it up to blow up, and bought insurance against the explosion...
Of course, little people go to jail for trying to commit insurance fraud...
All of this is a great advertisement to recruit additional members into the fold, both fiscally responsible ones and otherwise....
/S
+1 for the "/s"
Is there ANYBODY left who is fiscally responsible that would be crazy enough to join the EU?
As for the "otherwise" countries, I hear Ukraine is desperate to join . . .
In this bizzarro world, Greece could and probably will default on all debt.
Then watch for some Goldman Sachs type entity help cook the books again for either a return to the EU family or an IMF loan.
There is the media coverage.
Here is Varoufakis when he could talk openly back in 2012.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwAClUrhrek
He doesn't want bailout money to repay Greek creditors.
He acknowledges Greece is bankrupt.
He is ready to default.
(Also, he hasn’t forgotten the war or the Nazi occupation of Greece)
One of the first things your replacement will do, Yanis, is arrest your father, confiscate his non-financial assets and torture the old buzzard for as long as it takes to get his Swiss bank account number and passwords and empty the accounts of a lifetime's worth of back taxes.
If this is about keeping the inheritance you were counting on when the old man croaks, forget it. It's not yours, and you don’t deserve a cent of it.
If the institutions are feeling generous, maybe they'll let your daughter in Australia live. Learning why and how the big men with guns killed you will be a far better lesson in economics for Xenia than that crap book you wrote. Her mother probably saved both their lives by dumping your ass.
He who troubles his father's house shall inherit the wind.
lloyd, is that you?
Greece will get its loans and debt relief, the other countries in the euro will demand it as well. Germany has no other political choice but to cave. Even China is pushing for a deal.
If Greece is forced out its Germany's pensioners who will suffer most.
Well done Yanis. You would make Marcus Aurelius proud. Stoic. History in an endless cycle. You are playing your part with honour and dignity.
Did you forget the sarc tag? Kinda thinking you did not.
He is an economist and a politician. The birthplace of all my heroes.
More western propaganda:
Greece will become a terrorist threat to Europe and the US.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102801840
Advance protection against any potential Russian pivot.
Gotta give those evildoers credit, they seemingly cover all of the bases.
Fuck the Greek government. They wasted all this time. They could have done some very smart things from day one but No.
They could have been planting the seeds to grow an organic economy. They could start planting those seeds today. But No.
They could have been taxing the crap out of all imports. But No.
They could have been arresting bankers and the corrupt. But No.
Did anyone noticed vicious propaganda of lies by MSM against Greek government and ordinary Greek people? It rivals psychotic rants against Russian invisible invasion and gay bashing. Goebbels would be proud, command and control rages on in "free world press" spewed by media zombies, making a cacophony of incoherent, nonsensical utterances for paycheck or rotten meat.
Honorable prostitutes should sue skimpy dressed, over the hill, S-LGBT presstitutes since they unfairly compete for national orgasm of ultimate fantasy of greed and opulence serving those brilliant and impotent oligarchs with erectile dysfunction and interfere with legal trade.
Where is Kim Kardashian butt of distraction when country needs it? Kim bend over for the good of your country.
Just cast Kim in next version of 1984 so audience would now why main character was watching TV screens at home all the time and followed commands. Guarantied hit.
It's about time someone stood up to the criminal banking cartel, who as we all know, played a big role getting Greece into this mess in the first place. Debt forgiveness HAS to happen to a significant degree around the world for us to move forward. Of course that means failed banks and a great big derivative mess. I'm sure JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs et al are now positioned to profit from the impending chaos. The sooner we get this done before the psychopaths pulling the strings in the U.S. government find an excuse for another war, the better. Now would be a good time. Bring it on.
Quick synopsis of GrExit so far:
[the Johnsons load their guns and point them at Bart. Bart then points his own pistol at his head]
Bart: [low voice] Hold it! Next man makes a move, the nigger gets it!
Olson Johnson: Hold it, men. He's not bluffing.
Dr. Sam Johnson: Listen to him, men. He's just crazy enough to do it!
Bart: [low voice] Drop it! Or I swear I'll blow this nigger's head all over this town!
Bart: [high-pitched voice] Oh, lo'dy, lo'd, he's desp'it! Do what he sayyyy, do what he sayyyy!
[Townspeople drop their guns. Bart jams the gun into his neck and drags himself through the crowd towards the station]
Harriet Johnson: Isn't anybody going to help that poor man?
Dr. Sam Johnson: Hush, Harriet! That's a sure way to get him killed!
Bart: [high-pitched voice] Oooh! He'p me, he'p me! Somebody he'p me! He'p me! He'p me! He'p me!
Bart: [low voice] Shut up!
[Bart places his hand over his own mouth, then drags himself through the door into his office]
Bart: Ooh, baby, you are so talented!
[looks into the camera]
Bart: And they are so *dumb*!
"BLAZING DRACHMA" Coming to an Ampthitheatre near you soon!
Interesting leaked document...
http://nsnbc.me/2015/07/01/leaked-documents-why-tsipras-said-no-why-germ...
HELL YA,
SCORCHED EARTH CAGEMATCH.
BURN IT DOWN!
As an honest person ask yourself. What is in this for me? What is in this for my children?
If you are honest the answer is Zip Zero Nada. This system aint set up to do anything but screw the honest over.
And it's one year old. It seems to contradict the belief that the Greek govt is made of morons taking hasty and reckless decisions...
Germany has always wanted a warm water port...
Looten fur unterseebooten?
the Greek banks no longer hold any Greek government debt [...] their collateral with the European System of Central Banks cannot be downgraded legally
With a sleight of hand he redefines a problem into a bargaining chip -
I would need a bit more supporting evidence to believe that, plus some explanation what else they are holding instead?
WEBSTER TARPLEYS PLAN B FOR GREECE
We have to now entertain the fact, we have to look at the idea, that Greece may indeed be be forced into default by Merkel Schäuble and by Madame Lagarde aka Largarce.
So now the question is what should Greece do?
The first thing is: Don't do anything that would make you look like the aggressor. Be extremely defensive in your tactics. Make them drive you out.
If they are going to drive you out of the Euro, make them do it in the plain light of day. It is important that the IMF the European Central Bank and the European Commission be seen as the aggressors.
If you are driven out you got to declare a state of emergency. Declare a state of emergency and rule by decree. Under whatever emergency provisions the Greek system offers.
The next thing, declare an immediate and total debt moratorium on all debts public and private. Because all Forex-exchange is going to be marshaled and distributed and used, assigned according to the dictates of national economic survival.
And to make that easier, an other point, you got to nationalize all the the banks, all the Greek commercial banks need to be nationalized.
Then you got to declare capital controls, if you want to take money out of a bank, you got to satisfy a government official from the Greek treasury, what are you going to do with it?
And if you want to export money from the country then you got to have to justify that in the eyes of a government official from the Greek treasury. Somebody working for Varoufakis and I hope Varoufakis will be good in that if it comes to this.
So capital controls and exchange controls which have been used in Malaysia, they've actually been used in Iceland lately, and to some extend they also have been used in Russia, Belarus. So you gotto have very very strict capital controls and exchange controls.
You've got to also think about barter deals. You've got to go outside the normal IMF even payment systems and see if you can make a deal with an oil producing country like Russia or somebody like this.
You've gotto keep that gas pipeline coming. You've got to do all sorts of unorthodox and unpredictable things to make sure that you have food, fuel and other necessary components.
Then in order to keep your economy going you're going to have to cease the central bank, you are going to nationalize the Greek central bank, if you are forced back to the Drachma this is the only way to do it but don't let that central bank continue as the play-thing of rich oligarchs who have been supporting Samaras, nationalize it, make it a branch of the Greek treasury.
Again Varoufakis gets more responsibility. What are you going to to with that?
Well you are going to issue zero percent long term credit and other credit at very very low rates, maybe not zero percent but maybe one percent, half a percent, depending on what it is.
But when it comes to infrastructure, where you are producing these huge things which are collateral. You've got to get busy on roads You've got to get busy on ports and docks.
Might be time for a new airport. Certainly a new electrical delivery systems and so forth.
The one thing for a country like Greece that usually works extremely well is housing. You've gotto focus on things where you can produce the components in-country.
In order to do that you would need to do an in-country resource census. In other words, how many unemployment workers do yo have? How much cement can you produce? How much steel do you have?
Housing is one very obvious one. An other one would be shipping and shipbuilding. The Greeks of course the truck drivers of the ocean, they use to have a big shipbuilding industry.
Maybe getting down to zero percent and twenty or thirty year maturities in this case you could begin to compete once again. So look around your economy for things like that, infrastructure, basic industries.
And then of course you've gotto find something to get some foreign-exchange. Tourism is an obvious one. But it can't just be that.
So I just went trough my plan B for Greece. In other words it's better to stay in the Euro if you can under dignified and reasonable conditions but if Merkel and Schäuble really have lost their minds and if Lagarde is really so insane well you can't control what they do and therefor you've got prepare yourself for whatever happens and that includes of course ceasing the central bank issuing credit for production barter deals debt moratorium and the other things that I've just said.
Webster Tarpley and Michael Chiotinis about Greece - AUDIO
Download Most Recent Program – June 27, 2015 http://tarpley.net/audio/WCR-20150627.mp3
Greece discussed from 22:00 min.
Greece should default and then loudly declare to the world press that they are indeed Defaulting with a capital D! Make it clear that IMF and other financial institutions cannot say it is anything other than a default. Single out Deutche (Douche) Bank and say have fun paying out all the CDS. Bye bye derivatives. Sayonara bitches!