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Did The IMF Just Open Pandora's Box?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

By now it should be clear to all that the only reason why Germany has been so steadfast in its negotiating stance with Greece is because it knows very well that if it concedes to a public debt reduction (as opposed to haircut on debt held mostly by private entities such as hedge funds which already happened in 2012), then the rest of the PIIGS will come pouring in: first Italy, then Spain, then Portugal, then Ireland.

The problem is that while it took Europe some 5 years to transfer a little over €200 billion in Greek private debt exposure to the public balance sheet (by way of the ECB, EFSF, ESM and countless other ad hoc acronyms) at a cost of countless summits and endless negotiations, which may or may not result with the first casualty of the common currency which may prove to be reversible as soon as next week, nobody in Europe harbors any doubt that the same exercise can be repeated with Italy, or Spain, or even Portugal. They are just too big (and their nonperforming loans are in the hundreds of billions).

And yet, today, in a stunning display of the schism within the Troika, it was the IMF itself which explicitly stated that Greece is no longer viable unless there is both additional funding provided to the country, which can only happen if there is another massive debt haircut.

This is what the IMF said:

Even with concessional financing through 2018, debt would remain very high for decades and highly vulnerable to shocks. Assuming official (concessional) financing through end–2018, the debt-to-GDP ratio is projected at about 150 percent in 2020, and close to 140 percent in 2022 (see Figure 4ii). Using the thresholds agreed in November 2012, a haircut that yields a reduction in debt of over 30 percent of GDP would be required to meet the November 2012 debt targets. With debt remaining very high, any further deterioration in growth rates or in the mediumterm primary surplus relative to the revised baseline scenario discussed here would result in significant increases in debt and gross financing needs (see robustness tests in the next section below). This points to the high vulnerability of the debt dynamics.

And the kicker:

  • "these new financing needs render the debt dynamics unsustainable."

Bingo, because that is, in a nutshell, precisely what Tsipras and Varoufakis have been claiming since day one. As expected, a Greek government spokesman promptly said that the IMF report is in line with the Greek government's view on debt.

What makes the IMF report even more odd, is not so much its content and position which have been largely known for quite some time now, but its timing: just three days before the Sunday referendum, Tsipras now has prima facie evidence to wave in front of the Greek people and say "see, we were right all along."

It is exactly the case that only a "No" vote at this point would allow Greece to continue a negotiation which has already seen one of the three Troika members side with the Greek position. Should Greece vote "Yes", it will make any future negotiation with the Troika impossible, and while the country will get a few months respite the resultant bank run after the bank reopen with the ECB's blessing will mean that all Greece will do is buy itself a few months time. Only this time all the debt will still be due.

And, should hey vote "Yes", this time the Greeks will only have themselves to blame for all the future pain, pain which will continue well after the mid-point of this century.

But ignoring Greece for a minute, what the IMF's "debt sustainability analysis" has just done is open the door for every single other comparably insolvent peripheral European nation to knock on Christine Lagarde's door and politely ask: "Mme Lagarde, if Greece is unsustainable, then why aren't we?"

Because as the chart below shows, the debt situations of all the other peripheral European nations is just as "unsustainable."

 

In this way, while the outcome of the Greek situation is currently unknown, it has also become moot, because at this very moment, politicians from Spain's Podemos to Italy's Five Star movement are drafting memos demanding that the IMF evaluate their own debt sustainability. Or rather unsustainability.

Perhaps more importantly, these same politicians will now dangle the prospect of an IMF admission that they, too, deserve a haircut as the catalyst to be elected into power. After all who can refuse that their life would be made so much better if only the country was permitted to selectively "default" on €50, €100, €200 billion or more in debt? Just elect this politician, or that, and watch your living standard soar...

And since the IMF has no choice but to agree that just like Greece all these nations are accordingly drowning in debt, Syriza's sacrifice (assuming Tsipras fails to outnegotiate Merkel) will not have been in vain. In fact, it may very well end up that today the IMF opened up the Pandora's box, one which, more than a Grexit, will destroy Merkel's "united Europe" legacy.

 

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Thu, 07/02/2015 - 16:47 | 6263714 MEFOBILLS
MEFOBILLS's picture

Germany will take a haircut, especially with a Greek no vote on Sunday.  

Germany will have to figure out how to stabilize some of its banks that will go under. 

 

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/economic-historian-germany-w...

 

 "Germany is king when it comes to debt. Calculated based on the amount of losses compared to economic performance, Germany was the biggest debt transgressor of the 20th century."

 

How many haircuts?

 

"That depends on how you do the math. During the past century alone, though, at least three times. After the first default during the 1930s, the US gave Germany a "haircut" in 1953, reducing its debt problem to practically nothing. Germany has been in a very good position ever since, even as other Europeans were forced to endure the burdens of World War II and the consequences of the German occupation. Germany even had a period of non-payment in 1990."

More:

 

Ritschl: That's what it looks like, but we were also extremely reckless -- and our export industry has thrived on orders. The anti-Greek sentiment that is widespread in many German media outlets is highly dangerous. And we are sitting in a glass house: Germany's resurgence has only been possible through waiving extensive debt payments and stopping reparations to its World War II victims.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: You're saying that Germany should back down?

Ritschl: In the 20th century, Germany started two world wars, the second of which was conducted as a war of annihilation and extermination, and subsequently its enemies waived its reparations payments completely or to a considerable extent. No one in Greece has forgotten that Germany owes its economic prosperity to the grace of other nations.


Thu, 07/02/2015 - 21:30 | 6264573 Teknopagan
Teknopagan's picture

Germany did not start WW1 or WW2.  Simple propaganda.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 08:27 | 6265674 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Phoenix complex.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 20:21 | 6267593 layman_please
layman_please's picture

spot on. germany was able to pay the ww1 reparations (and more) only thanks to american loans which, as you stated, were cut in half in 1953 by the London Agreement on German External Debts.

Specifically, Germany was able to borrow abroad beyond her ability to pay, without the normal slump in the value of the mark which would have stopped such loans under normal circumstances. It is worthy of note that this system was set up by the international bankers and that the subsequent lending of other people's money to Germany was very profitable to these bankers.

Using these American loans, Germany's industry was largely reequipped with the most advanced technical facilities, and almost every German municipality was provided with a post office, a swimming pool, sports facilities, or other nonproductive equipment. With these American loans Germany was able to rebuild her industrial system to make it the second best in the world by a wide margin, to keep up her prosperity and her standard of living in spite of the defeat and reparations, and to pay reparations without either a balanced budget or a favorable balance of trade. By these loans Germany's creditors were able to pay their war debts to England and to the United States without sending goods or services. Foreign exchange went to Germany as loans, back to Italy, Belgium, France, and Britain as reparations, and finally back to the United States as payments on war debts. The only things wrong with the system were (a) that it would collapse as soon as the United States ceased to lend, and (b) in the meantime debts were merely being shifted from one account to another and no one was really getting any nearer to solvency. In the period 1924-1931, Germany paid 10.5 billion marks in reparations but borrowed abroad a total of 18.6 billion marks. Nothing was settled by all this, but the international bankers sat in heaven, under a rain of fees and commissions.

Tragedy and Hope by Carroll Quigley page 266

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 16:50 | 6263724 hansg
hansg's picture

Well, what about if _every_ country does it? Just write off all the debt, start with a blank slate. Sure, the financial types would be screwed - but I'm betting normal people would get on with their lives just fine...

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 22:05 | 6263738 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

The Greek referendum is a revolutionary action. It will spread like wildfire across Europe and around the world whereever debt slaves yearn to be free. Over the coming days and weeks it will drag the IMF, ECB and other world-class bankstas to their days of reckoning. 

Hopefully, the Greek government will follow the referendum with the arrest and trial of Goldman Sachs and other international bankstas.  Justice cries out for a mass trial in the style of the Maxiprocesso (Maxi Trials) of the Mafia in Sicily during the 1980s that resulted in hundreds of defendants convicted.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nPEgV1oqX0

 

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 16:55 | 6263742 steelrules
steelrules's picture

Wouldn't it just be easier to drone all the Rothschilds and their central banks out of existence, could be done in 24 hours.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 17:21 | 6263831 Never_Put_Down
Never_Put_Down's picture

Hardly, they own the drones and the drone operators

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 18:35 | 6264058 steelrules
steelrules's picture

The time will come.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 23:22 | 6264921 Wild E Coyote
Wild E Coyote's picture

Nope. The time will never come. 

And if enough large group of people wanted it, the powers behind rothschild will oblige and arrange a spectacle for you to watch and be happy.

You will see Drones attacking palaces, just Like Airplanes attacking old WTC building and Tower 7.

 

 

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 16:57 | 6263745 Solio
Solio's picture

That "...all these nations are accordingly drowning in debt."

It's the plan, man!

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 17:14 | 6263810 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

We fucked some debt dynamics.

 - IMF

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 17:21 | 6263830 trader1
trader1's picture

does betteridge's law of headlines apply here?

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 17:38 | 6263885 Sivad UK
Sivad UK's picture

When the first Greek Grandma dies because she didn't get her pills this will all be over - the EU will fold.

Don't get me wrong - these Syrzia guys have a clown car like a 79 Town and Country wagon and they are definitely in the fold up way way back seats.

That doesn't change the fact that the Brussels clowns are driving and this crowd will probably Thelma and Louise it before they are finished.

We all know the issues - they are obvious (No currency union without transfer payments, Weaker economies should have never been let in). However in the game of "who has the most to lose" the Greeks have trumped them.

The EU electorate isn't stupid. They know the Greeks had to be sacrificed in 10 to save the banks and like all good voters they'd be happy to see them starve now.

However the Brussels emporers lost their fig leaves when they allowed this last 86bln in ELA to be handed out and the ECB can't afford that hit.

In my view the Greeks will take this one.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 01:19 | 6265167 Loukanika the r...
Loukanika the riot dog's picture

I am over 6' and covered in tattooes. He is way more intimidating than me & has put his career on the line 4 this .Repect
Syriza are not clownss. They are playing the game and winning against EU as far as I can see. Here in Greece media is full press against no vote. We all know we have been screwed up by IMF EU.
From Crete renowned anti Nazis

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 06:52 | 6265538 Sivad UK
Sivad UK's picture

Fair enough. I don't agree with thier politics, however I do agree with their cause. They have won this one tactically - so more power to them...

Let's hope for all the Greeks that a resolution comes soon. It's high time normal people stopped paying for these political battles being fought in Brussels...

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 18:05 | 6263964 putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

Tyler, where is your Nobel prize? Amazing analysis. Wow - you nailed it! Thats why I love this site. Been with you since the Alpha days.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 08:29 | 6265678 Arnold
Arnold's picture

Pulitzer first, then Nobel.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 18:14 | 6263994 Omega_Man
Omega_Man's picture

ECB and FED can bail out every bank but not Greece??  Proof they are evil

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 18:14 | 6264000 CHC
CHC's picture

Screw the entire Troika.  All three countries - Italy, Spain and Portugual should all immediately hold referendums to leave the EU.  If they vote YES - leave and declare yourself insolvent and debts null and void.  Go on ye merry ole way and have at it - taste freedom!

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 18:21 | 6264014 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

I don't claim any great knowledge of high finance, though I have some basic understanding, but, many here on ZH and ZH in general has been miles ahead of all the Media Mouthpieces, all the IMF spokesmen, all the finance ministers of Europe combined.

" "these new financing needs render the debt dynamics unsustainable."

Who in the fuck did not know 3 years ago that the above was true?

And, Greece is the little boy with his finger in the dike. If the default hole begins to leak, the supporting structures will be eaten away very fast, and the leak will become a flood. Allowing haircuts and reducing austerity in one place will call forth the floods of demands for similar treatment.

An Estonian finance minster summed it up. "We have not had years of austerity, cuts in wages, health, retirements, education for years, ONLY in order for Greece to keep their benefits! Play this same thought pattern out across the big problem children SPAIN, ITALY and IRELAND. Spain for example is totally too big to be bailed out, and is too big to fail, Should IT fail, the EU project melts away.

Over in Russia, a nation with NATO massing on it's borders, claiming to be defending against a Russian invasion threat. A Russia under strict sanctions in finance, banking, energy and import export trade. Russia is doing just what they should do. Take all the threats, the lies, the propaganda and accusations from the West, stay mostly silent, stay behind their protected borders and wait. As the EU mounts attack after attack, threat after threat, sanction after sanction, for no good reaon other than Washington wants it, Russia is waiting. They may look to be outnumbered and out gunned by the military and financial powers under Washington's direct control. But holding the line and waiting is their best bet. They have surpluses of well over 300 billion, minimal debts, a fast modernizing military, tens of billions in new gold holdings added to the already large supply. They have energy independence totally. Sanctions have allowed Russian domestic agriculture and manufacturing to instantly be competitive again, with imports being shut down.

The EU and Washington are right now at the very peak of their power to bully and threaten. They look invincible! But a tiny nation like Greece, shows just how rotten the foundations are. Washington, the giant power that also seems totally invincible, is really more rotten than Greece, if you look at the scale of debts and obligations. To top it all off, Washington has declared open war on China, the world's largest economy, and richest nation in terms of Real Money. \

The rot has set in, how fast it spreads is not something I can know, but I do know it will spread!

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 18:45 | 6264086 JohninMK
JohninMK's picture

Good analysis there JB but I would say that the US/EU passed the point of peak power 5-10 years ago.

The Russian and Chinese military have closed the gap in the areas that matter and the West's military is configured for asymmetric not symmetrical warfare now.

Also we are within months of there being a proper alternative to SWIFT which, in my mind, will be a game changer as the US will not have sight of funds flows, much of which will not be in $, so will not be able to punish those who do not toe the line. It will be very interesting to see who moves onto SinoSWIFT.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 19:15 | 6264174 who cares
who cares's picture

You just said it: Greece,Italy, Spain, France, etc. etc. they are part of the USA crumbling empire. Those attacks against Russia and China are just tentatives of creating new enemies to distract the world from the crude reality. The USA have far more problems than the above countries, they cannot default, as the others can do although with some pain, because the empire would just crumble. and it will!!

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 19:21 | 6264188 Bazza McKenzie
Bazza McKenzie's picture

Jack, the EU and Washington are well past their peak in bullying power.

The US had a huge leap in relative military power with the collapse of the USSR but since then Russia has rebuilt, and Russia spends its military money to get the best bang for its buck, while the US now spends it to maximise the share of the buck that goes to lobbyists, politicians and MIC companies (e.g. the unfolding F-35 fiasco).  The US also withdrew most of its heavy armour from Europe, leaving Russia with overwhelming superiority.

Twenty years ago China could not have converted Spratley Is into military bases and if they'd tried the US Navy would have blasted them off.  But now China is successfully building those bases and no doubt will build more.

Twenty years ago the Europeans were pushing the AGW con and thought they were going to tell all the natives elsewhere to get with the program and give up their development aspirations.  At that time they had some predominance over China and India.  We know what has happened since and China's economy and military strength now dominate that of Europe.

We have recently seen the spectacle of China launching its AIIB and all of Asia, including Australia but excluding Japan, and the major EU economies jumping to sign up despite opposition from Washington.

The peak of EU and US power was near the end of the 20th century.  It has been downhill since then and accelerating.  The self-indulgence of the US public and its "elite" is both a symptom and a cause of the decline.  The US can't even protect its borders except against Canadians.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 19:38 | 6264236 smacker
smacker's picture

Nice one Jack...

"...many here on ZH and ZH in general has been miles ahead of all the Media Mouthpieces, all the IMF spokesmen, all the finance ministers of Europe combined."

ZH and its contributors have the advantage of not having to read out pre-scripted Press Releases issued by .gov.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 20:23 | 6264367 Anunnaki
Anunnaki's picture

Karma is a bitch. A year ago arrogant and over confident Europe was treating Russia like a dog who shit on the white carpet.

Thinking sanctions, ruble manipulation and oil price gouging would send Russia reeling.

I think Putin would prefer to engage the West. But now he has the chance to de dollarize, diversify energy East and West and develop domestic sectors in agriculture and small industry to lessen the Russian achilles heel: an energy dominant economy

Peace Prize's agression allows him to modernize his military which also supports domestic MIC.

All while maintaining significant reserves and very little debt. Shedding T bills for gold

For him the sanctions are an opportunity while the bully boys in the west go into financial free fall

He is my hero. I have a man crush and if he delivers to Syria and Iran i may swoon

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 02:56 | 6265302 TeethVillage88s
TeethVillage88s's picture

I'm still reading your remarks, but wanted to have something to look at in data:

-

Amount Outstanding of Total Debt Securities for All Issuers, All Maturities, Residence of Issuer in Spain©
2014:Q4: 2,023.896 Billions of US Dollars (+ see more)
Quarterly, Not Seasonally Adjusted, TDSAMRIAOAIES

Not sure I can believe Spain's GDP:

Gross Domestic Product for Spain
2011: 1,480,000,000,000 Current Dollars (+ see more)
Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted, MKTGDPESA646NWDB,

Spain's Debt Problem is Government Debt... and it has been forever I guess.

Central government debt, total (% of GDP) for Spain
2012: 65.91501 Percent of GDP (+ see more)
Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted, DEBTTLESA188A,

Looks like it is hard to find Spain's particular Debt issue.

International Debt Issues to GDP for Spain
2011: 124.81570 Percent (+ see more)
Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted, DDDM07ESA156NWDB,

Outstanding Domestic Public Debt Securities to GDP for Spain
2011: 45.28131 Percent (+ see more)
Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted, DDDM04ESA156NWDB,

Outstanding International Public Debt Securities to GDP for Spain
2011: 12.02855 Percent (+ see more)
Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted, DDDM06ESA156NWDB,

Maybe the Data has been vastly improved by Majik??

Outstanding International Private Debt Securities to GDP for Spain
2011: 112.78710 Percent (+ see more)
Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted, DDDM05ESA156NWDB,

Outstanding Domestic Private Debt Securities to GDP for Spain
2011: 54.45198 Percent (+ see more)
Annual, Not Seasonally Adjusted, DDDM03ESA156NWDB,

Looks like over 210% like most countries, Public & Private Debt, International Debt to GDP.

PIIGS.

You just can't Trust them or ...How they are protected by the Banks & Govt if they play ball and commit their vast Tax Revenues for all Posterity.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 18:29 | 6264033 Latitude25
Latitude25's picture

Amazing these countries didn't coordinate their debt write-off demands to the bankers.  Would have been a lot more effective.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 18:44 | 6264080 jldpc
jldpc's picture

It falls to the birthplace of "democracy" to go forth and declare thate we shall not submit:

1. to the debt of others laid upon us while we got so little of it - proving we will gladly take morsels - who dosen't love a good game of charade, er, european politics;

2. to repay our own debts - after all they "loaned" it to us knowing we could never pay it back - whose your Daddy GM?;

3. to track down, prosecute, incarcerate, and justifiably hang our theiving politicians and oligarchs; they are us after all; and we believe them unto death by starvation or death by lack of medical suppplies - to do so would mean we were walking back on thousands of years of slippery, thieving, behaviour - which is us;

4. to kiss German butt;

5. to want to be French;

6. to respect an Italian

7. to like a Turkman;

8. to give a shit on any given day of the year!

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 18:52 | 6264105 fatlibertarian
fatlibertarian's picture

Is this where the IMF starts trying to use SDR's as a currency? This is what Jim Rickards has said they wanna do in the future. And when you go the IMF's website (creepy place, really) you see an SDR exchange calculator lol

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 18:59 | 6264123 fancyfree
fancyfree's picture

Sputnik News has a similar story, http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150702/1024133686.html and just printed my comment:

There is no need for austerity measures. PLoS One disclosed the Network of Global Corporate Control in 2011. 147 of the 43,000 multinational corporations control 40 percent of the net worth of companies in world trade and 60 percent of their annual earnings, forming a single conglomerate by interlocking boards of directors. This Network of Global Corporate Control issued 210 trillion in Treaty of Versailles bonds in 1934. These bonds, together with compounded interest, are now worth more than 2 quadrillion dollars. The Network of Global Corporate Control owes more than Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain (sometimes called the "PIIGS") and all the rest of the countries combined.


It just so happens that the Treaty of Versailles bonds, as well as the world's monetary gold reserves, other precious metals, gemstones, and artwork, are held in a trust that is administered by the Bretton Woods institutions (the World Bank and International Monetary Fund). You won't have heard very much about this trust, called the "Global Debt Facility", because the Network of Global Corporate Control has bought up all the media and is censoring this news. 

The same people that established the Global Debt Facility (Jose Rizal and Ferdinand Marcos) established the Bretton Woods institutions and the Group of 77 (a coalition of 133 developing countries) so that when these assets came out of a fifty year agreed period of sequestration, there would be an institutional framework to make certain that these assets in the trust were deployed for the benefit of humanity.

The Network of Global Corporate Control has been trying unsuccessfully to steal the assets in the Global Debt Facility, using the CIA, the International Court of Justice, and some royalty. https://s3.amazonaws.com/khudes/Twitter6.24.15.pdf The 188 Ministers of Finance that are on the Board of Governors of the Bretton Woods institutions defeated these futile attempts. All that was accomplished was to provide recent documentary evidence of the existence of the Global Debt Facility.


Confidence in the accuracy of recent referendums has reached new lows (Scotland's independence referendum in September -- Swiss gold referendum in December) There is no reason to expect that Greece's readiness to accept austerity measures will be more accurately counted or reported. Where we really are is actually quite encouraging. Thanks to the internet, we are sharing information about a global currency reset that will replace the paper currencies issued in a long-standing scam with currencies minted for each country from their international gold reserves held in the Global Debt Facility. The chance this happens is 90-95% based on an accurate power transition model that came from the US Department of Defense to the World Bank in 2004. https://s3.amazonaws.com/khudes/sentia+model.pdf

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 19:01 | 6264129 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

nirp can totally fix this

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 19:05 | 6264136 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

My spidey senses are tingling.

Nobody in banking tells the truth unless they're up to something...

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 19:08 | 6264149 smacker
smacker's picture

This is fantastic news. I can almost smell the EZ imploding.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 19:16 | 6264177 hendrik1730
hendrik1730's picture

Yep, but it will draw the rest of the world with it. The EU is the greatest market on earth ....

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 19:39 | 6264241 smacker
smacker's picture

I've got a pair of steel underwear in the cupboard...

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 19:23 | 6264197 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

Enquiring minds

(Scroll down to the per country table, click the per capita debt owing a couple of times to order by size)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_debt

top 4 per capita are first, Japan 78,000, no surprises there, next drum roll....SINGAPORE with 68,000, next 56,000 USA.

fourth...Greece, some 40,000....

the USA has 40% more debt per capita than Greece.

of course, none of the numbers for countries include State, City and heaven forbid, corporate/banking debt (think Illinois, California etc etc).

couple of things.one..an aid package for Greece must include resiting production to Greece that is unemcumbered by debt, each European country has to contribute by giving up employment in its economy so that Greek yourh unemployment drops to a more manageable 10% from 50% and lays the foundations of long term viability.

of course GDP and debt numbers are mostly bullshit, since GDP now includes drug-running and hookers (not saying turn Greece into some sort of kaleidoscopic chicken ranch staffed by europe's hookers and junkies - but still :) )

hmm...that's a little dated using CIA stuff from 2013

CIA stuff here:

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2186....

ireland is the poster child of recovery. it has managed to reduce its fiscal deficit by ..another drum roll..1% of GDP over 2013/2014. and will supposedly turn a fiscal surplus by 2018, taking some of the strain of whatever European production (or US tax dodged corporate HQ's) were re-sited to Ireland. Portugal (same at around 130%), Spain (6% worse at 98%) and Italy 2% worse at over 134%)....

http://www.publicpolicy.ie/irelands-fiscal-profile-q4-2014/

well there you go...central banks have (hopefully not permanently) failed to facilitate a return to the "savings into investment" mechanism that so disastrously collapsed in 2006 after governments (and agent central banks) encouraged decades of fraudulent finance sector behavior based on saying printing numbers on balance sheets = reality....NOT.

people can do whatever task they are given to do... if the same socio economic bracketed US citizens had their debt and GDP measured, would they be any different from Greeks? i bet a demographic in the US is identical to that of the Greeks, and could be swapped seamlessly.

be nice to people when you are on the way up, since you may be waving at them when you are on the way down

 

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 19:34 | 6264227 coast
coast's picture

This is the first hard-on I have gotten in over 10 years.  I am single, and broke, and hookers dont know what a canadian maple leaf is...I am fooked.....for all of you who told me to buy silver?  go screw yourself.  :-) 

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 20:13 | 6264338 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Your problem is that Canadian hookers aren't terribly bright.

They're Canadian, after all.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 22:00 | 6264673 Dickweed Wang
Dickweed Wang's picture

for all of you who told me to buy silver?  go screw yourself.  :-)

Be patient pal . . .  JPM hasn't bought over 350 million ounces of PHYSICAL silver for nothing.  Mark my words, by the end of the year the silver to gold ratio is going to be close to 1/10 or better . . . .

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 20:10 | 6264288 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Uh-oh.

http://rt.com/news/271279-austria-petition-eu-exit/

So it begins.

Poor banksters can't find anyone happy with their redistribution schemes these days.

http://rt.com/news/241897-frankfurt-protest-police-bank/

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 21:35 | 6264425 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Who is Greece ALEX? Ding ding ding daily double for a $1000. Lets talk about the 9 Trillion Dollars the US has added to their books since 2008 and the 3.2 Trillion the FED has added as well? Greece is merely the side show at the circus. Maybe the two headed snake at best... Take a fricken look at the balance sheets of all other countries in the Keynesian West and you will understand. Then we got China totally capitulating

? LOFL

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 22:03 | 6264562 22winmag
22winmag's picture

A wise man on Zerohedge once said Europe would be in flames before America even farted.

 

Nobody ever said anything about throwing gas on the flames.

 

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 21:31 | 6264575 Redart
Redart's picture

They opened the box, so the markets can go up again to the all time hizze

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 21:56 | 6264662 ThrowAwayYourTV
ThrowAwayYourTV's picture

When a handfull of people start telling you how you should live your life according to the amount of sea shells you have in your pocket, it is over.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 22:48 | 6264820 Barley Burnside
Barley Burnside's picture

Spray some windex on it"

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 23:10 | 6264891 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

long MUFON

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 23:13 | 6264896 damicol
damicol's picture

What this doesn't get to is this, Why are the fucking IMF scumbags and criminal ponzi purveyors doing this.

Well possibly one scenario I can think of is this, The neo liberal cunts in Washington are really running scared now.

I think they have thought a little ahead, and can see the day if they all gang up on Greece, fuck it over, enslave it in permanent serfdom and and chain it forever under the Diktat of Brussels am Berlin, AND then the what comes to pass is what the fucking wits in the State Dept are so shit scared of, Namely that Europe gets some kind of act together  and as the Chinese grow their influence and the new bank takes off and the dollar gets displaced more, especially as oil is about to enter the next phase on its downward trajectory as the cash and fraud and manipulation runs out of steam and it heads like iron ore, under $40 on its way to $20, that Europe now decides its a good time to tell Washington to FUCK OFF

Then promptly pivots to Russia ad China.

End of Washington influence in Europe.

Better fuck Europe up big style, If w are going down, best take Europe down too, then we can engineer another war come sailing in and pick up all the kudos, we saved the fucking world meme and hope to get back on top.

Fucking US is going down anyway, they know that, otherwise why spend so much time being such lying corrupt little cunts, and having a fucking shit for brains faggot arse bandit in chief breaking every fucking law and constitution to keep these cunts enslaving you.

Easy to start a war when the entire continent is in a shambles as they all scream for moar fucking debt relief and money at the same time. And a chance like thi might not come again soon enough , especially if they have to wait for Spain or Italy being the next ones.

Perfect tool of the warmongering cunts on K St is the IMF

 

 

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 23:17 | 6264909 MollyHacker
MollyHacker's picture

Is the paper contract on an underlying banking and insurance industries commodity asset, used for determining financial valuation in the future, as good as gold?

there is an ability to assess a price by "affixing a quote" for gold an apply arbitrage throughout global markets thereby creating unfair advantages to the otherwise unsuspecting market participants. It would easely provide the opportunity to create follies in finances and creating high risk insurance coverages lacking any creditably, again, backstopped only with golds electronicly traded futures. Gold's valuation backstopping these risks are on the primary banks "derivative commodities" balance-sheet" using unfair-market price discovery suppression tactics in secret.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 00:03 | 6265040 butchtrucks
butchtrucks's picture

The reality is that most every country is running a debt that is unrealistic and can never be paid off. Some countries like Greece have simply run out of time because they cannot print money or perform anymore financial tricks to buy more time. The reality is that the entire global economy is about to crash and burn because of the massive debt across the entire system. America's debt is massive and would require every single person in the US to write an $80,000+ check to pay off the debt in full today. Does every person in American have the capability to pay $80,000 each to write down the debt? Of course not so where is that money coming from?

The concept of money in this day and age is an old and dying concept. Capitalism, with the technology we have, simply gives everyone in the 1% total power over the entire system while everyone else without the money and resources struggles everyday to pay their bills and lives check to check if you are lucky and not drowning in debt.

Everyone should look up the "VENUS PROJECT" and "RESOURCE BASED ECONOMY" because there is a better way to do things than to work 60+ hours a week never seeing your family or doing what you love. Why do you allow a small portion of the population to control everything? If you saw how rich people lived and were treated, you would riot.

Wake up and get rid of this archaic concept.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 00:31 | 6265083 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Makes me wonder what exactly is in the TPP and others. Global debt relief and new money system? Perhaps those in the know,know this, and is why the market is continually bought despite an environment where it shouldn't be.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 02:57 | 6265303 litemine
litemine's picture

Big Corporations can dictate on T.V. News Reports that Thru Lies their Product is Healthy.

Like the Tobacco Idustry, for Years saying that their product was Not, not unhealthy. 

Now it's the Ny.Ny.Financial Court. Courts that have everything Legal until Proven No so.

With a severe Predjudice to many of my Canadian Stocks.

 I do not want to be Tied to any American Law. They have Lost All Credibility in my Eyes. It's their mess, let them clean it up.............."There will be Blood in the Streets"..................Again, an Empire will be Bought for Pennies on the Dollar. 

Amazing that the Non-Productive Bankers tend to make far and excess what the more Common folk make?

A cheap piece of rope becomes an equalizer ...............Or a stress reduction treatment?

 

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 00:07 | 6265046 Niall Of The Ni...
Niall Of The Nine Hostages's picture

The IMF know what they're about. The IMF have better uses for their money than throw it down the Greek rathole---propping up the Kiev junta for example---and want to cut Greece loose and blame it on the eurogroup.

 

 

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 00:15 | 6265061 I Write Code
I Write Code's picture

Those MF'rs.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 00:25 | 6265077 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Pandora's box is tech and the oligarchs are its enemies. They are in a catch 22 that they can't survive unless they give up their wealth and power. It is built into the nature of things.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 00:37 | 6265100 A Dollar Short
A Dollar Short's picture

Duh!  And where is Amerika?? 

18 TRILLION DOLLARS IN DEBT.

With nearly 200 trillion in unfunded liabilities, FUCK GREECE,

FUCK AMERIKA TOO!

Bastards

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 02:30 | 6265265 onmail
onmail's picture

BarackHomObamma : "What 18 treelleeOn onlee , I weel show dem de dikheads how to preent more treelleeOns in just 6 months"

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 01:23 | 6265174 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

It will be in the best interest of Greece to tell the ECB to go to hell, default on its loans, exit the Euro and follow Iceland to the path of economic recovery having borne the short term pain of its currency being devaulated. The other option for Greece is to kneel to ECBs terms and follow the path of Financial Slavery for the foreseeable future. ECB is representing the banks who have lent money to Greece without due diligence and now want their loans with interest back by imposing financial hardships on the working class in Greece.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article40231.html

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 01:36 | 6265190 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Once you supply ice cream to one crying kid they all want it.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 01:47 | 6265208 Phillyguy
Phillyguy's picture

R people in the EU “brain dead” (not a rhetorical question!)? There are multiple Greece’s that have not imploded- including Spain, Italy, Portugal and France. All plagued by austerity, high unemployment (which will increase) and increasing deficits. Citizens in these countries should look to the Greece to see what is in store- high unemployment, declining wages, declining/elimination of pensions, increasing poverty and exploding deficits. As Gertrude Stein’s stated “there is no there there”.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 02:05 | 6265234 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Wake the fuck up TYLER!  Money doesn't sleep.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 02:22 | 6265254 onmail
onmail's picture

PIIGS hah ha 

or rather piiglets romping the yard 

running over the farm and destroying all of it

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 02:31 | 6265258 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

Now they are trying to steal the money people are sending to Greek Hotels for vacation bookings.

This is clearly all about destroying the Greek economy, preventing tourism so that people visit English owned/German owned hotels in Turkey (crush the competition through fraud and abuse).

 

And people wonder why the entire Greek economy is a CASH economy . . . because if you actually did any transactions through more legal tracked avenues . . . you would endup bankrupt.... 20+% vat tax??? a tax that has NO LEGITIMATE STANDING.... on all products/value a people produce.

Income taxes, vat taxes, pensions that get pillaged by the ECB/TROIKA/GERMANY lol ,they aren't really giving Greece any reason to stay in the euro system, let alone trust these institutions.

 

The European Union is a complete fraud . . .  the VAT tax needs to go . . . the Troika needs to be arrested, and the debt of all European nations needs to be eliminated, and the currency needs to be printed debt - free.

If all these nations are going to have an equal stake in the currency they use, than they should have the equal right to print it.

 

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 02:43 | 6265285 HYMN
HYMN's picture

Yes, and exactly why there is an urgent need and a rush to outlaw currencies. The big guys are on the ropes. 

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 12:33 | 6266354 Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

If cash was illegal, Greece would leave the Euro overnight because the Greeks would transition to an underground economy overnight.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 02:35 | 6265272 HYMN
HYMN's picture

No matter how the vote goes the IMF,EU, nor the ECB and all the powers that be banker types and western leaning countries, none of them can un-ring the bell. "Time will tell, just who has fell and whos been left behind." "When you go your way and I go mine" Robert Zimmerman. You go Greece!

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 02:46 | 6265289 Loukanika the r...
Loukanika the riot dog's picture

I live in Greece it's a marvelous country. Not like US tthat shackled me for overstaying 90  visa. You folks really need to get a grip. The US is the butthole of the world. Get a fucking life!!

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 06:42 | 6265525 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Repeat after me:

"No Hablo Ingles"

Problem solved.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 03:01 | 6265304 Debugas
Debugas's picture

too little too late.

from now on greeks lost trust in banking system so they will try to take ALL THEIR MONEY OUT as cash

any new negotiotions should have that shift in situation on the ground in mind

in other words on monday Tsipras should tell to Troika - you bail out our banks 100% or no deal

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 04:16 | 6265392 harrybrown
harrybrown's picture

ISIS havent been to greece yet.....

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 06:15 | 6265479 Ecce_Homo
Ecce_Homo's picture

Haircuts for everyone then...

https://youtu.be/MwMPZR3sS2o

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 07:21 | 6265580 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

Swindle Alert: How To Spot The Fed’s Impending Bailout Of Europe http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/swindle-alert-how-to-spot-the-feds...

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 07:36 | 6265604 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/thanks-for-the-housing-disaster-washington-freddiefannie-heads-get-567-pay-raise/

Thanks For The Housing Disaster, Washington—–Freddie/Fannie Heads Get 567% Pay Raise

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 07:48 | 6265617 Misanthropus
Misanthropus's picture

Washington is a den of parasites, but you should check out Barney Frank's interview with the CBO in 2005. I think this POS has more to do with the Fannie/Freddie collapse than any other elected official. He somehow skated right through the collapse of 2007/8/9 and never did any jail time. Amazing. Just shows you how corrupt our political system really is.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 07:43 | 6265610 Misanthropus
Misanthropus's picture

Well, you know what they (Greeks) said about Pandora's box right? All obvious sexual allusions aside. The box contained "hope." Hope being one of the last great evils. Contained when she saw what she had done and slammed down the lid.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 07:47 | 6265616 ramgold2206
ramgold2206's picture

GREECE HAS BEEN FUCKED ON PURPOSE..

The same can happen to us, basically ordinary people can get shafted overnight by institutions. No matter what way you cut it depending on govt/institutions/banks etc is a fools game. Becoming sovereign as best you can is the only way to protect yourself. and the only way to become sovereign is to Own gold.

So what I am saying is GET INTO GOLD GUYS .... physical gold ownership on a long term deal.. speculate on comex paper if its short term gratification your after. .  Physical ownership is the best protection plan.. why save in dollar/euro thats depreciating faster than a ford mondeo being used as a taxi...and dont even start with some 401k bullshit.. whereby you turn your wages over to some coke head to chase the ticker with...  fuck me zerohedge readers are all intelligent professionals... this is basic stuff... save in bullion spend in fiat !!! 

if people dont have the £$€ to save a bit of bullion each month then use the marketing system to earn commissions and acquire your bullion with that.. we are giving people both the bullion and the means to acquire it... we spout enough about gold and economics on ZH why not profit a bit from that knowledge by referring people to acquire bullion... but perhaps ZHer's are to aloof for network marketing ...sarc or maybe not!

www.teamramgold.com 

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 07:59 | 6265629 biggestbrother
biggestbrother's picture

LISTEN UP ZERO HEDGE

 

The BIGGEST BET IN HISTORY  is the YUAN CARRY TRADE WITH THE PAYOLA being IMF RESERVE CURRENCY STATUS for the YUAN

 

This explains the Greece bailout by China. the recent stock market shenanigans,

Now THE BIGGEST BET IN HISTORY WAS (past tense because teh decision must already be known)  to borrow in USD and BUY YUAN. If IMF grants reserve currency status 4 % of all of the worlds capital will flood into China and the yuan will go through the roof.

So the IMF met earlier this year but the OFFICIAL meeting is in OCTOBER.

BUT that is not the way China does business. It does 100% of business corrruptly  by buying ( in this case IMF) votes: Now who is already bought.  Germany is in cos it doesnt benefit from an intermediary, all of Africa, and any government with weak corruptable politicians such as AUSTRALIA.  They  need Greeces vote, so CHINA will lend to them. Now as a soverign state the US does not want their power undermined and some in the US may be concerned about Sovereign issues, I was no accident that the reporting on those islands being built and discrediting (literally!) China came to a crescendo this year. 

The only people against IMF granting reserve currency other than the handful of US patriots are are those who have BET AGAINST THE BIGGEST CARRY TRADE IN THE MILLENIUM!  Now if you are betting against it you have a vested interest in Chinese stock market chaos, Chinese military build up fear.

 

If you are betting FOR it you have a vested interest in IMF needing money etc etc AIIB as alternate etc etc. 

 

SO it may be a single framing of many issues but teh amount of money at stake here is breathtaking. I think its a major driver. 

 

Now someone must have done the math and know who is bought. Maybe ZEROHEDGE can find out??????/

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 08:20 | 6265664 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Just really disgusting to see the grip on power and what the few at the helm will do to retain it.  Fuck 'em all.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 12:11 | 6265840 Obamaroid Ointment
Obamaroid Ointment's picture

The ordinary Greeks are lucky, just wait & see how hard average Americans are hit when Kalifornia implodes follwed by Illinois & Michigan starting a chain reaction through all of Obama's 57 states.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 11:52 | 6266246 fowlerja
fowlerja's picture

"It is time for the capitalist US to end this mess...invade Greece..take it over..pay Europe their 200 billion dollars and then annex the country..then build nice hotels for the European tourists and recover the money. Use the new income source to pay off the national debt. A win win plan for everyone...

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 12:11 | 6266300 theyjustcantstop
theyjustcantstop's picture

it's going to bad for the us,and eu to be the only` ones `````````````````in the NWO. 

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 12:13 | 6266306 bluskyes
bluskyes's picture

My grandchildren will begrudgingly pay your grandchildren forever, for a handout today

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 12:22 | 6266328 jonytk
jonytk's picture

Vote for free money!

 

exchange for bitcoin!

 

???

 

Proffit!

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