This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Here is How The Next Crisis Will Play Out

Phoenix Capital Research's picture




 

As I noted yesterday, the Fuse on the Global Debt Bomb has been lit. We are now officially in the Crisis to which the 2008 Meltdown was just the warm up.

The process will take time to unfold. The Tech Bubble, arguably the single biggest stock market bubble of all time, was both obvious to investors AND isolated to a single asset class: stocks. In spite of this, it took two years for stocks to finally bottom.

 

In contrast, the current Crisis that we are facing involves bonds… the bedrock of the financial system.

Every asset class in the world trades based on the pricing of bonds. So the fact that bonds are in a bubble (arguably the biggest bubble in financial history), means that EVERY asset class is in a bubble.

And what a bubble it is.

All told, globally there are $100 trillion in bonds in existence today.

A little over a third of this is in the US. About half comes from developed nations outside of the US. And finally, emerging markets make up the remaining 14%.

Over $100 trillion...the size of the bond bubble alone should be enough to give pause.

However, when you consider that these bonds are pledged as collateral for other securities (usually over-the-counter derivatives) the full impact of the bond bubble explodes higher to $555 TRILLION.

To put this into perspective, the Credit Default Swap  (CDS) market that nearly took down the financial system in 2008 was only a tenth of this ($50-$60 trillion).

What does all of this mean?

The $100 trillion bond bubble will implode. As it does, the financial system will begin to deleverage as debt is defaulted on or restructured (reducing the amount of US Dollars in the system, pushing the US Dollar higher).

By the time it’s all over, I expect:

1)   Numerous emerging market countries to default and most emerging market stocks to lose 50% of their value.

2)   The Euro to break below parity before the Eurozone is broken up (eventually some new version of the Euro to be introduced and remain below parity with the US Dollar).

3)   Japan to have defaulted and very likely enter hyperinflation.

4)   US stocks to lose at least 50% of their value and possibly fall as far as 400 on the S&P 500.

5)   Numerous “bail-ins” in which deposits are frozen and used to prop up insolvent banks.

This process has already begun in Europe. It will be spreading elsewhere in the months to come. Smart investors are preparing now BEFORE it hits so they are in a position to profit from it, instead of getting slaughtered

If you've yet to take action to prepare for this, we offer a FREE investment report called the Financial Crisis "Round Two" Survival Guide that outlines simple, easy to follow strategies you can use to not only protect your portfolio from it, but actually produce profits.

We made 1,000 copies available for FREE the general public.

As we write this, there are less than 50 left.

To pick up yours, swing by….

http://www.phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/roundtwo.html

 

Best Regards

 

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 07/03/2015 - 11:34 | 6266185 fowlerja
fowlerja's picture

I think this article was of lit value...

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 07:47 | 6265615 Midnight Hour
Midnight Hour's picture

Phoenix Capital is not wrong in what they state. The trouble is those con Artists have been able to kick the Can down the Road a damn lot longer than anyone thought. What we have now is more and more cracks showing and being papered over, but how strong is that Paper? I strongly thought that 2014 was going to be the end game, but it's 2015 and it's still going.  Every morning when I get up, check the news to see if it finally happened, but no, the game is still running. It will happen, but only God knows and he is not telling us.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 06:54 | 6265540 Backtable
Backtable's picture

"As I said yesterday...." and the day before, and the day before that, argumentum ad absurdum.

 

It's not that you don't have anything remaining left to say, because you don't, it's that you keep on saying it anyway.

 

We get it. There will be a Day of Reckoning. SHTF is coming. The Sky really is falling. TPTB are evil, etc. All of it it true, but we "got it" the first go round.  

 

Give it up already. You've become a never-ending Sham Wow! commercial.

 

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 08:17 | 6265656 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Bath House here for Sham Wow! The best thing to soak up "messes" with in the Men's Steam Room Club.
And wait until you see my Nutbuster!

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 06:43 | 6265518 Archduke
Archduke's picture

ZH, this is shameless scaremongering and advertising.

No meat in the article; just a bait to pimp a product.

 

I expect better from you guys.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 04:16 | 6265394 Lin S
Lin S's picture

Who was it who recently said Phoenix Capital is the "comic relief" of ZH?

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 21:51 | 6264644 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

S&P 400? Really?

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 00:24 | 6265075 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Exactly right.  Could go lower.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 20:50 | 6264440 scv
scv's picture

the luciferzionist world bank(imf) one-world-currency

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=typ2pl2L47k

 

6 billion people exterminated and only they remained.

 

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 17:47 | 6263906 swmnguy
swmnguy's picture

Well of course, by all the rules this Ponzi scheme is about to blow up spectacularly.  It's just the timing of it that's so hard to figure.

But more challenging is the fact that we don't use actual money anymore.  It's all fake.  So the rules no longer really apply, but we're not sure which rules don't apply, and in which ways they don't apply.  This thing died in 2007, and it hadn't been well for quite some time leading up to that.  And now in 2015, it's still possible for people to say it's doing just fine, or at least, "better."

Being able to change the rules all the time sure makes it easier to win.

What's going to bring this down is that moment when enough people lose faith in the system that they have a bank run and nobody shows up.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 00:25 | 6265079 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Here is what you peasants need to learn and understand.  Without this you will only ever be peasants.

The rules only ever apply to those who accept them.

Ponder

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 20:38 | 6264413 dumdum
dumdum's picture

 

 

My thoughts exactly.

This Ponzi scheme is no ordinary one, the con men in charge of this one can print as much money as they choose to keep it going.

Eventually, it will break down. But who knows when. It could still be 20 years away and the turmoil at the moment could only be a small bump.

One things for sure. China's stock bubble has hardly had an effect on the US markets. It's property downturn has had no effect whatsoever on the Australian property bubble. In fact Australia's proptery prices have accelerated in the last few weeks. 

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 17:06 | 6263785 steveo77
steveo77's picture

What would it cost to replace Pilgrim Nuclear Plant with Solar PV?
Around $2B, compare that to new Nuclear plant in Georgia at Vogtle at over $16B

Data and backup is here
http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/2015/06/replacing-indian-point-nuclear-plant.html

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 16:16 | 6263598 ramgold2206
ramgold2206's picture

seriously are people still in paper!!!!get the phyzz asap... cant say its the saviour.. but its a lot better than paper and ink..

 

www.teamramgold.com

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 19:29 | 6264208 Rikeska
Rikeska's picture

I made 7000 dollars a week helping people get on the profitable lead and brass commodities frimjam.  I only have 50 more spots on my downline.  Will you join me goldrammer?

 

wow.brassandleadisthenewacaiberry.com

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:38 | 6263182 Rodders75
Rodders75's picture

I get the piss taken out of me something rotten for espousing these kinds of views. In the end it's been best just to BTFD, pretend everything's all right and not listen to permabears like ZH and Phoenix. Could we all end up like Hussmann and before him Tony Dyer (RIP) who effectively missed out on some of the greatest bull markets in history? Trading with tightish stops and being well-hedged has been better. It never pays to piss into the wind of a rising trend. 

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 20:53 | 6264453 dumdum
dumdum's picture

 

 

Some wise words there, I'm also trend trader with largish stops. But somehow, with all this nonsense, I think it wise to show some skeptisism with the current 'bull market'. It just seems so artificial. 

Go back three months. You would have been laughed out of town if you stated that China's stock markets were on the verge of collapse. The Dow does appear to be struggling. A similar fate might be just around the corner.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:24 | 6263130 CarpetShag
CarpetShag's picture

These posts are as useless as pigeon crap on a leather interior.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:02 | 6263034 algol_dog
algol_dog's picture

Oh, another crash prediction from our beloved Phoenix Capital. Do these guys actually have paying clients? 

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 15:37 | 6263443 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

ONLY FIFTY LEFT!

Seriously..."the global bond market" are called DOLARES.

Nothing wrong with that market right now.

If you have any questions just buy some Jim Beam and Cigarettes...

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 13:43 | 6262935 Bluntly Put
Bluntly Put's picture

I've been reading these sorts of commentaries since 2007, and the amazing thing is when you read them you have to agree. But, every day you wake up and the same old scams keep running on and on.

Makes you wonder if things really are different this time.

.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 00:28 | 6265085 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Hell brother, makes ya wonder if ya be sane.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 15:07 | 6263320 daveO
daveO's picture

5)   Numerous “bail-ins” in which deposits are frozen and used to prop up insolvent banks.

This is the one to look out for. They either hyperinflate their troubles away or they 'lock down' the banks. All the gold naysayers need to remember this one. Even if gold loses half it's value, it would still beat a frozen bank account. At half it's price, a 1oz. gold Eagle or Buffalo will still contain about 11 times it's face value, which is still legal tender. Don't be fooled because it hasn't happened yet. I was reading about the housing bubble for years ahead of the top. Before that, I was reading about how Greece was cooking the books to get into the Euro and how it would end badly. That one took 15 years! We entered depression in 2008. The FED has papered over it(counterfeited and stolen savings from dollar holders all over the world). One would be foolish to think they can get away with it forever.
Fri, 07/03/2015 - 10:36 | 6266019 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

I have never understood what is meant by legal tender wrt gold?  Are you saying that if they freeze your bank account you will not use not legal tender?  You will not trade a bit of gold for something you need?  Is there some legal or tax difference between selling gold chunks and selling gold coins.

As you can see, this is a real question.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 13:14 | 6262799 PoasterToaster
PoasterToaster's picture

This crises is about the end of The State as god, and the death of the Statist religion.  

People are starting to confront the fact that the State can't solve problems, and it is scaring some while invigorating others.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 00:33 | 6265091 TheReplacement
TheReplacement's picture

Is okay comrade.  One day "chemtrails" will be chemtrails and American will fall over dead from poison and/or biological agent (as applies to whomever we want to frame for the vile murder of so many innocent Americants).  All control is under.  Do worry not comrade.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 13:08 | 6262767 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

The bond market is floating on an ocean of pure bullshit. The really bad things like derivatives that are predicated on magic paper. And he rode a pale horse......

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 13:05 | 6262746 large_wooden_badger
large_wooden_badger's picture

Man, you just can't GIVE those last fifty copies away, can you? Perhaps some financial incentive might move them?

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 10:32 | 6266005 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Does he only have storage space for a certain amount of digital copies?

Stupidity (or Marketing) should not be promoted/encouraged.

 

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 12:09 | 6266290 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

Time for a new 4th of July holiday Golden Jackass interview on TFMR

Turd and the Jackass for 1.5 hours...what could possibly go wrong?  haha :-)

It's on the house, so if ya wanna kill some time and hear Jim Willie's thoughts on the geo-political and economic collapse underway as we speak, here's the link:

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/6968/jackass-our-own-yankee-doodle-dandy

Enjoy this 4th of July, folks.  Think about what it means and what it stands for.  The future of freedom not just in America but the rest of the world hasn't been in this much jeopardy since WWII.  The new threats to freedom and liberty are hitting us from all angles.  Get prepared.  By this time next year the scumbags in charge will be banning the 4th of July just as they're banning everything else and driving us into another world war situation.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!