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June Payrolls Increase By 223K, Less Than Expected; Unemployment Rate Drops To 5.3%
According to the BLS, in June the US added 223K payrolls, less than the expected 233K, even as the the US unemployment rate dropped to 5.3% from 5.4%. Worse, the previous number was revised from 280K to 254K. Worst of all, average hourly earnings were flat despite expectations of a 0.2%, and a big drop from last month's 0.3%.
So much for escape velocity in payrolls: not only did June disappoint but the last two months were revised lower by 60K.
But the worst news in the report was the average hourly earnings, which were expected to rise by a modest 0.2%, down from last month's 0.3%. Instead they were unchanged at $24.95.
Why? Because wages continue to track the real state of the labor market as shown by the total civilian employment to population ratio, not the ridiculously fabricated headline unemployment number.
And with this data it is now time to cross over the September rate hike from the calendar.
More from the BLS report:
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 223,000 in June, compared with an average monthly gain of 250,000 over the prior 12 months. In June, job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, retail trade, financial activities, and in transportation and warehousing.
Employment in professional and business services increased by 64,000 in June, about in line with the average monthly gain of 57,000 over the prior 12 months. In June, employment continued to trend up in temporary help services (+20,000), in architectural and engineering services (+4,000), and in computer systems design and related services (+4,000).
Health care added 40,000 jobs in June. Job gains were distributed among the three component industries--ambulatory care services (+23,000), hospitals (+11,000), and nursing and residential care facilities (+7,000). Employment in health care had grown by an average of 34,000 per month over the prior 12 months.
Employment in retail trade increased by 33,000 in June and has risen by 300,000 over the year. In June, general merchandise stores added 10,000 jobs.
In June, employment in financial activities increased by 20,000, with most of the increase in insurance carriers and related activities (+9,000) and in securities, commodity contracts, and investments (+7,000). Commercial banking employment declined by 6,000. Employment in financial activities has grown by 159,000 over the year, with insurance accounting for about half of the gain.
Transportation and warehousing added 17,000 jobs in June. Employment in truck transportation continued to trend up over the month (+7,000) and has increased by 19,000 over the past 3 months.
Employment in food services and drinking places continued to trend up in June (+30,000) and has increased by 355,000 over the year.
Employment in mining continued to trend down in June (-4,000). Since a recent high in December 2014, employment in mining has declined by 71,000, with losses concentrated in support activities for mining.
Employment in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, information, and government, showed little or no change over the month.
The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was 34.5 hours in June for the fourth month in a row. The manufacturing workweek for all employees edged down by 0.1 hour to 40.7 hours, and factory overtime edged up by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.6 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)
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Wake me up when unemployment rate goes negative
My dog just farted
But was it the fart expected or does it have to be double seasonally adjusted?
who ever's job it is to balance the statistical lies with the rate hike/no hike blather during an election cycle will be working serious overtime the next 15 months.
Was flipping channels on the business news. Every econonmist was making excuses for why it was not better. As well as excuses for the downward revision. Whodathunkit.
Laugh track deafening.
These monthly ass clown shows of fictitious numbers will continue indefinitely.
I'm pretty tied of this marathon, when a foot race was promised..
I am thinking of taking the bus and being fresh for the big finish.
"My dog just farted"
Bullish!
Lower unemployment ? the only truth left is that all you are told is a lie
It's really remarkable. I wouldn't believe it, if I weren't watching it. May you live in interesting times.
Amricans are oveemployed. We shall have to reduce the work week in the near future.
Fucking bullshit, as usual.
Fucking Bullish, as usual. Fixed it for ya.
"According to the BuLlShit, in June the US added 233K payrolls"
Not to mention the BLS margin of error for monthly job numbers is: +/- 100,000.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm
For example, the confidence interval for the monthly change in total nonfarm employment from the establishment survey is on the order of plus or minus 105,000. Suppose the estimate of nonfarm employment increases by 50,000 from one month to the next. The 90-percent confidence interval on the monthly change would range from -55,000 to +155,000 (50,000 +/- 105,000). These figures do not mean that the sample results are off by these magnitudes, but rather that there is about a 90-percent chance that the true over-the-month change lies within this interval. Since this range includes values of less than zero, we could not say with confidence that nonfarm employment had, in fact, increased that month. If, however, the reported nonfarm employment rise was 250,000, then all of the values within the 90- percent confidence interval would be greater than zero. In this case, it is likely (at least a 90-percent chance) that nonfarm employment had, in fact, risen that month. At an unemployment rate of around 6.0 percent, the 90-percent confidence interval for the monthly change in unemployment as measured by the household survey is about +/- 300,000, and for the monthly change in the unemployment rate it is about +/- 0.2 percentage point.How strange that Goldman Sachs knew this already. They were probably the ones who manufacted this bullshit!
Even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally.
Naw.
This is going to hurt this morning's smack down in gold!
I think its funny that with all the troubles in the world with Greece...Puerto Rico....China....that people are selling gold.....I dont think anyone is selling gold right now that owns it in the real form.....no one is selling it right now....
Remember that article about a year or so ago at ZH saying that it's legal for the government to lie via the media?
So how many more 'unemployed' people weren't counted who stopped looking for work because there isn't any?
I am one of them
Listening to Suck Liesman on CNBC....unemployed don't matter....the fat fuck
It was an interesting conversation....I hate that Political spin of WE CREATED 3 MILLION JOBS.....
We did. Most are low-wage Hispanic jobs. Trump's a clown but this is an open secret in D.C.
Euthanize Liesman
455k according to the report.
" in June the US added 233K payrolls, less than the expected 233K" ... eh?
added 223k... (from the title).
typo. added 223K expected 233K
Yup. Figured I'd point it out so they could correct it and then my comment would look stupid.
... plus, it's funny
All I heard was buzzing and clicking followed by UE dropping again - bullish!
Cooked not counted.
"in June the US added 233K payrolls, less than the expected 233K".
Sorry, I missed something. Is 233K less than 233K?
The meaning of words has become flexible. Gay no longer simply means happy. Marriage no longers equates to a man and a woman. Etc.
"Less than" is a construct of the white patriarchical power structure. Get over it.
They will accomplish their goal of the equity Ponzi will go back to 18,000 and the US economy will be the only economy that produces nothing but is in a recovery! How laughable! I thinks the real number is closer to 25.3% but what the big deal about the 2 anyhow 25.3% or 5.3% they are really one in the same! Gary Hart said it best, Washington is courrpt sewer!
US real unemployment... climbing toward 50%. For those who like the goverment statistics, dream on.
There's an article on this at EconMatters that says it's about 40%, so I consider I consider JustObserving to be correct.
223K? fine.
the real question is who believes this number?
bullshit barry strikes again.
Most jobs in healthcare, waste services and food services (though looks like people are crapping out more than they take in). Part time for economic reasons rose substantially (NSA).
warehousing and logistics also....nobody makes anything anymore in USA ... all outsourced and imported so distribution centers/warehousing jobs
there will be MOAR
A 223k gain against 455k leaving the workforce, not to mention the 60k revision lower for April/May...but hey, there is one bright spot, government payrolls remained unchanged. I can only imagine someone at the BLS dreaming of what "positive impact to overall non-farm payrolls" reinstitution of the draft would be....
Speaking of things remaining unchanged, what's the status on the US Debt? It's constancy lately reminds me of the woman who has celebtated her 39th birthday for the last 12 years. Everyone knows the truth, but she won't admit it.
Jack Lew has a work around. He just writes down the actual debt level on the back of an envelope at his office. It's not official until he types it into his copy of Quickbooks US Government addition. OWN IT! Or since it's the USG addition, OWN YOU!
Love the Jim Bianco interview yesterday. We're 7 years into the recovery and still most of the economists say 'wait, in a moment you'll see 3% growth'.
The bloomberg alert on my phone:
"Payrolls up in June with flat wage growth."
No shit they were "up"....but they were weak and missed expectations. The article itself was more honest, but leave it the cheerleaders to apply a liberal dose of lipstick to everything.
Anyone who didn't click into the article may have been left with the impression that the numbers were good. Intentional..?
Does Obama "intentionally" suck Reggies balls? Of course it was.
Bots writing for algos.
What is the number of full-time jobs (with benefits or that pay enough for people to buy their own benefits) that need to be created each year for real economic recovery? Anyone?
The reason why the June Payrolls increase by only 223K was there was too much sunshine across America due to global warming and Americans were just getting a early tan....
Funny, wonder why the lines at the food pantry have never been longer in this booming eCONomy.
Food stamp recipients approaching 50 million. BUY!!!!!!!!
The problem my friends have is that they cant find smart labor.....someone who will show up on time...can learn....can speak english....that has a trade....and these are blue collar construction guys...
That's Raycist.
Look at all those yobs just waiting for those brand new PhD's to gradgeate....yea baby!
5.3% is utter tosh and the inglorious bastards cooking up those numbers at BLS know it and we all know it.
The U-6 says 11%; Shadowstats adjusted unemployment says it's 23%; David Stockman says total unemployment is really 42%
Stockman's number is based on his inclusion of people who have a job but are functionally unemployed with lower hours and lower productivity of people doing crappy jobs. Lot of idle man-hours out there sitting around.
At this point they should just have Bhagdad Bob come out and give the jobs number/unemployment rate.