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Plunge In Export Prices Is Now Worse Than The Great Financial Crisis

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Spot The Recovery... According to the World Trade Monitor, world export prices declined by -15.8% year-over-year in April and are back at level last seen in 2009. World import prices have declined by -15.1% year-over-year as well.

 

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In the developed world, export prices are down-16.6% year-over-year. This a larger drop than what occurred in 2009 and is the largest year-over-year decline since 1990 (when this series began). Import prices have declined by -17.5% year-over-year. The drop it 2009 was slightly larger.

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Lastly, in the emerging markets, trade prices have fallen but not quite to the extent that they have in developed world. Emerging market export prices are down -15.1% and import prices are off -12.6% year-over-year.

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Source: Gavekal Capital blog

 

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Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:09 | 6263066 zeroaccountability
zeroaccountability's picture

Yeah, but what about 'Since Lehman' ?

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:14 | 6263086 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

Tyler, I am wondering -- do you ever get shit on for exposing the financial system as you do? 

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:30 | 6263154 SickDollar
SickDollar's picture

and what about us , any request fron the three letters agencies !!!!! lol

 

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:56 | 6263265 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Now that is a recovery I can believe in! Where is my gubbimint handout? Stat!!!

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 15:48 | 6263413 Eirik Magnus Larssen
Eirik Magnus Larssen's picture

Zero Hedge is set apart from other partisan fringe sites because its anonymous writers, the "Tyler Durdens", often seem well informed. A professional background in the financial sector seems at play.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 15:52 | 6263494 tc06rtw
tc06rtw's picture

  … the  Esquire  of  “Doom Porn” !

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 15:57 | 6263508 Eirik Magnus Larssen
Eirik Magnus Larssen's picture

Heheh. I would say "Perma Bears" myself. Doomsday afficionados typically don't have the subtle and sarcastic sense of humor the writers of ZH have.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:17 | 6263104 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

Damn, beat me to it.

 

SINCE LEHMAN !!!

 

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:21 | 6263116 junction
junction's picture

Deflationary curve or just a multi-seasonal adjustment in exports?  And where is the bottom?  The track looks like a sine wave, only who knows if the wave will go up.  The shadow knows.  Too bad about Hollywood music composer James Horner's accidental death.  Now down't expect director James Cameron to return from New Zealand anytime soon.  

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:47 | 6263223 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

Long-term depression for most Americans, some more then others, from what I see. Stagnation, gloom, zero growth, and crappy outlook on th efuture for most people.

 

The waiters, cooks, etc are scraping to get buy as prices of necessities keep soaring. Worse, i see very little action by Congress or Barry to do anything about the plight of the middle class private sector ... aka, the Walking dead.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 16:07 | 6263567 Augustus
Augustus's picture

No news in the chart.

Energy must be the no. 1 world export.  Oil rices are down a third.  Same with coal and most metals.

Producers created oversupply and prices down. 

Good for world's consumers.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:12 | 6263073 Athemos
Athemos's picture

Truly, the end is nigh; this time. 

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 15:37 | 6263441 847328_3527
847328_3527's picture

Shocking, all those stock buybacks have not created millions of new jobs.

 

Astounding, Obamacare has not incentivized employers to double their staff.

 

Incredible, that sending hundreds of thousands of jobs overseas has not boosted our GDP.

 

What am I missing?

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:12 | 6263077 Philo Beddoe
Philo Beddoe's picture

Betcha I am gonna take a huge loss on all that iron ore I have been stockpilling. Fuck! If it is not one thing it is the other. 

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 15:25 | 6263395 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

It's the storage fees that get you in the end.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:12 | 6263080 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Obama's economic war against Putin and the fall in oil prices is not helping export prices - a 50% drop in oil prices has had a major effect.

But all the new debt generated is not helping prices either:

Since ’07, $11 trillion of global QE, $57 trillion of more debt, http://investmentwatchblog.com/since-07-11-trillion-of-global-qe-57-tril...
Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:15 | 6263090 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Well then, that cannot be good for the current trade deficit.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:15 | 6263091 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:15 | 6263093 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

No problem, they may be losing money, but they'll make up for it on volume.....

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:36 | 6263180 Major Major Major
Major Major Major's picture

...and Everyone has a share

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:17 | 6263103 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Get out there and by another Tee Vee you assholes! the economy is counting on you! Oh wait you had to pay for your Obamacare deductible...My bad.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:26 | 6263140 Consuelo
Consuelo's picture

'Obamacare deductible' = GDP Win...!!!

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:19 | 6263109 davidalan1
davidalan1's picture

but, but unemployment is down to 5.3 percent...

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:22 | 6263120 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

It'd be easier to spot the recovery if you'd just post a picture of my congressional representitive's wallet.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:24 | 6263121 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I was just Trokiaed

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 15:24 | 6263389 tarabel
tarabel's picture

 

 

Their new dyslexia ray is very effective.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:25 | 6263132 Falling Down
Falling Down's picture

Long Beanie Babies...

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:27 | 6263147 Fishhawk
Fishhawk's picture

Prices fall when there are more sellers than buyers.  Thus falling prices indicate declining sales or excess capacity, either of which threatens the ability to service the debt used to create the capacity.  Looks like the race to the bottom could be a dead heat, where all economies, developed, developing, undeveloped, resource exporters, service economies, whatever pretend status group you want to assign, all hit bottom at the same time.  The central banks all coordinate to have a worldwide harvest of real assets for pennies on the dollar, after the worldwide bankruptcy.   Would that be a perfect time to introduce a New World currency, digital only and backed by nuclear bombs?  So are the IMF and the AIIB enemies or conspirators?  Bonus question: is there honor among bankers?

Fishhawk

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:30 | 6263155 SillyWabbits
SillyWabbits's picture

Principal + Interest > Money Supply

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 15:34 | 6263186 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Precisely why money creation must always be tethered (in so much as it can be) to real collateral.  Eventually all those paper claims on real goods and services will start seeking them out.

tick tock motherfuckers...

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 16:20 | 6263609 Luckhasit
Luckhasit's picture

real collateral?

What's that... is it real shit?

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:28 | 6263150 SillyWabbits
SillyWabbits's picture

The recovery seems to be in insider trading and HFT.

Not to mention renting out money some people can get for nothing!

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:33 | 6263156 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

You wonder if these sick pricks go home at night and say man am I sick and tired of this bullshit, or do you think this is just good sport for them/.

 

Recall Obama's first term and how many in his administration jumped ship, seems they wanted no part of the shit storm  we are currently witnessing.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:34 | 6263168 q99x2
q99x2's picture

How about some Jane Austin or King Lear instead of all that SpaceX junk. As if the world needs another Lamborghini or NSA infected gadget. The day of bankers has ended.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:34 | 6263173 enloe creek
enloe creek's picture

that is why we need tpp.  BTW how come there is no free trade in medical services.  hello... is this thing on, 

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:35 | 6263174 The Delicate Genius
The Delicate Genius's picture

Two words:

Sabina Altynbekova

I mean just in case you've forgotten that we live in a world where she exists.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:39 | 6263187 CHX
CHX's picture

Greekovery. Yep. Looking good.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 14:51 | 6263241 sudzee
sudzee's picture

German economy about to sizzle as "rent a jew " goes live. To be followed by "inviteaspy":

http://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/German-NGO-organizes-Rent-a-Jew-program-40...

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 15:27 | 6263406 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

formula: robot now does the work so management does not have to pay labor. profits go up. government sees people with no jobs no money, creates entitlement state. zero sum game, until too many robot factories and not enough buyers for their products. business cycle was extended twenty years ago with china miracle, some thought it would never return, now it has

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 15:46 | 6263479 FranSix
FranSix's picture

The irony would be if the robots were in management.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 12:09 | 6266292 Hope Copy
Hope Copy's picture

They essentially are.  The automated reports from the spread sheets represents replacement of middle management.  When steel is being sold by hot babes (hookers), then you know that the shit has hit the fan.. 

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 12:06 | 6266279 Hope Copy
Hope Copy's picture

not a mircle, but a curse...  now the sh*t hole is deeper.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 15:42 | 6263465 RMolineaux
RMolineaux's picture

The graphs do not indicate if stated in dollars.  They also do not indicate if adjusted for inflation.  What role did the strengthening dollar play on the reported results ?  Or the drop in agricultural commodity prices.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 15:48 | 6263489 MATA HAIRY
MATA HAIRY's picture

oil

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 16:39 | 6263674 valley chick
valley chick's picture

Soon to be the worst ever..........

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 16:42 | 6263690 In.Sip.ient
In.Sip.ient's picture

Absolutely no problem folks!

More Printing Press action... coming up!

 

Afterall, what's another $Trillion these days.

 

 

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 11:45 | 6266225 Hope Copy
Hope Copy's picture

NOT WITHOUT INFLATION!!!!!!!!!!!

 

The Communist Fascist Federal Reserve Unites States of America.  single party non general elected, private hidden stockholder controlled state.

 

CFFRUSA

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 17:34 | 6263874 The Ingenious G...
The Ingenious Gentleman's picture

I know governments and other borrowers crave inflation, but deflation appeals to me.

Sat, 07/04/2015 - 11:33 | 6268897 RMolineaux
RMolineaux's picture

If you are a net creditor, that is understandable, as the value of your receivables will increase.  If you are a net debtor, you're screwed.  Overall, there are far more debtors than creditors in the economy.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 21:08 | 6264501 arrowrod
arrowrod's picture

Production is being more automated every day, what else do you expect?

What do any of you do for a job?

Think about it.  I'm using a 20 teraflop PC to read email. Could just as easily get off my dead ass and create a "web site" selling stuff.  300 Megabit internet is available at my house.

In ten years, if your not working for yourself, you won't be working.  Except, of course, federal government employees.  Even they will have to sneak into work, and deny they have a job.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 11:19 | 6266143 Hope Copy
Hope Copy's picture

because I'm here, commenting, my internet is so unstable..  I guess they don't like what I have to say? F^ck-em, somebody has to shout it to them...

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 21:12 | 6264516 arrowrod
arrowrod's picture

On another issue. If google installs "Google Fiber" to my house in Silicon Valley, it will be worth more that a million dollars.  You're probably thinking it is already worth more that a $1 million, but it is in the ghetto section.  Yeah, how can there be a ghetto section when rents are $3000 a month, and houses are $750K at the bottom?

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 11:12 | 6266125 Hope Copy
Hope Copy's picture

iT WILL BE GETTO WHEN THE WATER STOPS RUNNING.. LOL.. THAT'S NOT THAT FAR AWAY OR UNREALISTIC.

Thu, 07/02/2015 - 23:38 | 6264983 biggestbrother
biggestbrother's picture

WHO IS WRITING THE ECONOMIC TEXT BOOK FOR A WORLD WHERE THERE IS 

 

no rent

secular stagnation

no growth

no yield 

no growth

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 10:54 | 6266068 theyjustcantstop
theyjustcantstop's picture

I'm waiting for wal-mart, and other big chain grocrey, and daily supply stores, and gas stations to be put on the national security list during civil unrest, lootters shot on sight.

give the govt agencies a chance to use up some of those billions ofr ounds,and 99% of cops some over-time.

Fri, 07/03/2015 - 11:17 | 6266139 Hope Copy
Hope Copy's picture

Credit crunch and government red tape are going to kill all those stupid trading agreements that O'bama has been pushing.  They f^cked up what should have been the 'great economic reset' in 2008, so the reset has comback in a form that they can't stop.. Embrace it and declare hyper inflation and create from the source, the FED needs to up rates... get it on and get it over-with.  WAR will only make the problem worse.

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