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The Complete Greek Referendum Walk-Thru: When, How, What To Expect; And What Comes Next
The Greece’s referendum, due to take place on Sunday, remains an open question with pollsters and analysts alike. Polls have shown mixed results in favor of the “yes” or “no” vote to austerity commitments needed in return for aid.
Whatever the result, most analysts agree the impact on Greece’s govt, the country’s banks and the markets is uncertain at best and the country’s fate in the euro still at risk
S&P says the probability Greece will exit the euro zone has increased to about 50% following the govt’s decision to hold a vote.
And since there is enough confusion as is, the following summary from Bloomberg answers most of the unknowns associated with Sunday's popular vote:
WHEN ARE RESULTS DUE
- Polling stations will be open from 7am to 7pm local time and the result may be known before midnight
- Pollsters haven’t confirmed if there will be exit polls; if there are any, they will come immediately after the polls close
- Software distributor SinglularLogic, which has been hired to run the vote counting and data processing, should be able to provide an estimation of the winner a few hours after polls close
- JPMorgan expects ~90% of votes will have been counted by midnight, based on past general elections in Greece; vote counting could be even faster this time as it’s a yes or no question
WHAT ARE GREEKS BEING ASKED TO VOTE ON
- The question, underlying documents and process have been released here: http://www.ypes.gr/el/Elections/referendum2015/
- “Greek people are hereby asked to decide whether they accept a draft agreement document submitted by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, at the Eurogroup meeting held on June 25 and which consists of two documents”
- The government has been at pains to tell voters that this isn’t a vote on euro membership but a vote on the terms of any bailout agreement
- Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras says he’ll sign a deal on Monday either with “yes” or “no” vote; not an option for Greece to leave euro
- Finance Minister Varoufakis told Bloomberg TV it’s about “how to stay in euro” that he would resign if people vote “yes”
- European officials have criticized the government for asking people to vote on a deal that is no longer on the table after the country’s bailout expired on Tuesday; don’t agree that “no” vote will facilitate Greek government’s negotiating position
WHAT DO THE POLLS SHOW
- Opinion polls are mixed so far with a poll commissioned by Bloomberg News showing 43% intend to vote “no” and 42.5% backing a “yes” while 14.5% remain undecided; survey was conducted by the University of Macedonia Research Institute
- An Alco survey for Ethnos Poll shows the “no” vote with 43.4% and “yes” vote with 44.8%
- A ProRata poll earlier in the week said the “no” vote led while a GPO survey found 47.1% support for the “yes” campaign
- Analysts for the most part still expect the “yes” to win out although JPMorgan says the initial polls surprised them, making an already uncertain outcome alittle more uncertain
- Citigroup expects a “yes” vote but say public opinion will likely remain highly fluid and subject to events such as official statements and the degree of social unrest, if any
- Eurasia says risk of a “no” vote is quite high at around 45% though still expect a “yes”
WHAT IF IT’S YES
- If there is a yes vote, outcomes are ultimately likely to prove stabilizing but could remain chaotic for some time, JPMorgan says
- Base case is Tsipras stands down and a national unity government is formed under technocratic leadership
- Forming a new government won’t be easy, BoFAML says; parties supporting “yes” camp hold only 106 seats; that suggest 45 MPs from the current govt would have to jump ship for a government to be formed
- There are also technical issues about whether or not general elections could be organized in the middle of the summer, suggesting the country may be in limbo for at least a few more weeks
- Citigroup analysts say securing a deal with creditors on Monday will be easier said than done, and negotiations could drag on for weeks, challenging efforts to reopen the banks
- A ‘yes’ vote, followed closely by the resignation of Tsipras and Varoufakis is likely to be the most market-friendly outcome, Goldman Sachs analysts say
WHAT IF IT’S NO
- Greek PM Alexis Tsipras said yday a “no” vote is decisive step toward a better deal, not a vote to leave the euro
- Former Greek PM Kostas Karamanlis says a “no” vote on Sunday would lead to Greece’s expulsion from heart of Europe
- A ‘no’’ vote would probably require a political intervention unlike any we’ve seen as yet to row back from Greek euro exit, JPM says
- The dynamics of increasing banking and payments dysfunction would shorten the timescale for such an intervention to a handful of weeks at most
- BofAML says wouldn’t expect the creditors to change their proposal; without new official funding, Greece will enter uncharted territory
- Risk is Greek bank holiday lasts well beyond next Monday, BBH says; on a “no” vote, it’s clear the ECB would not increase ELA
HOW WILL MARKETS REACT
- If the result is a “yes”, European equities are thought to be the asset class with most attractive risk reward, Barclays says
- A “yes” vote should boost risk appetite and give investors more confidence that the Fed will hike rates later this year, Credit Agricole says
- Expect USD to be among the main beneficiaries under this outcome; any relief rally in euro should be short-lived
- A “no” vote will be a risk-negative outcome that will fuel Grexit fears; euro should fall, especially against the majors and market visibility will worsen significantly
- It could take months before we know the ultimate fate of Greece; if hopes of a deal remain alive, markets may even return to their holding pattern after the initial sharp selloff
Source: Bloomberg
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When do we get to the "it's all over" part?
The Greek Referendum choices:
NAI - keep paying and stay in the Eurozone.
OXI - stop paying and stay in the Eurozone.
What an OXI-moron, if you ask me. ;-)
Looney
I hope its a dead tie. Literally the exact same votes on both sides. Talk about chaos.
This article forgets to leave out the "the referendum was illegeal" schtick if the vote is no.
"while 14.5% remain undecided"
By the time this vote comes around, the 14.5% will have had enough of dumpster diving and the "ayes" will have it. Besided, a close vote will be generated so the Diebold-like machines wont have to work very hard in swinging the vote count to whatever direction benefits GS the most.
I wouldn't waste my time voting on that joke of a referendum. This is a useless 'feel good' gesture by the government to delay their lynchings until after this weekend.
Why let the weekend go to waste?
JPMorgan expects ~90% of votes ....
rigged...i told ya.
Congrats Looney for the comment of the week :-))
Translation for non-Greeks here
NAI - Nay
OXI - Oki
NAI is a “yes” to the Troika’s demands.
OXI is a “no”.
See how confusing it is to both, Greeks and non-Greeks? ;-)
Looney
OXYMORONIC
OXI is "no" is also a vote to make a deal with the TROIKA
This vote is not about a deal with the IMF but if the Greeks want Varoufakis to stay or not
Either way there has got to be a debt restructuring for Greece and perhaps a loss for the IMF.
Which opens the door for Spain, Portugal and Italy to do likewise.
This vote is about whatever TPTB say it is. https://youtu.be/LbJif7vISQg
http://www.newsweek.com/scottish-police-investigates-referendum-fraud-af...
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/22/scottish-referendum-vote...
Why don't we all just chill out and pay attention to stuff that matters like Caitlyn Jenner's cock, or the travails of the Duggards. The NWO has got your back, no worries. They've got your back, ass, cod sack, number, info. and any damn thing else deemed necessary to further their agenda. Ignorance is bliss---calgon take me away!
Headbanger
you are mistaken.
see comment 6265727 6265727
>>>
...Tsipras says he’ll sign a deal on Monday either with “yes” or “no” vote;
<<<
Bit arrogant to assume anyone wants to sign a deal with him...
After all, maybe just have to wait to get a different Greek PM to do the signing...
Watson
Right now, the GS Banksters are in hysterics knowing they will profit from either side of this vote. The only perplexing thing is which side profits the most.
Another fanstic use of the Rothschild's Cookbook
.
So when do the other € nations get a vote on whether we want to keep paying for Greece's lifestyle? I would love a €-wide referendum. The outcome a given. Democracy in action.
I would love a €-wide referendum. The outcome a given. Democracy in action.
i suggest you from this day, when you cross the street to triple check there is no cars accelerating aming at you.
Ok, next time I won't forget to mark my comment as LOL-ed ;-)
And you may ask yourself: "Well, how did I get here?"
According to Stalin, the software company 'Singularlogic' will decide the outcome of
the election. With what's at stake for the world markets and banks, TPTB have already
given that company 'an offer they can't refuse'
Yes or no it is all bullish.
Never....and Vince.....please try to leave some damning fucking evidence of that cunt's involvement in your death, will ya?
I mean, irrefutable proof.
I mean...fuck....you're posting on ZH..should be no big deal.
NEVER! This is the never ending story of Euro a bad nightmare made to didtract us from the 18,158,000. Debt of the USSA wonder why it hasnt increasted in months?
Can you fix the number please...it is .. 18,290,630,432,232.77 as of this second.
Enjoy This..
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
you didnt know, most amercians are 8 digit locked....
If the late Federal District Judge Charles Sifton is right, referndums are meaningless. In New York City, city voters passed a referendum on term limits, limiting city officeholders to two terms. Sifton overruled this requirement, allowing then Mayor Bloomberg to run for a third term. Judge Sifton's son, Sam Sifton, then in line to be laid off at his editorial job the New York Times, instead got promoted to restaurant critic, a job he was completely unqualified for. To make room, the Times laid off Frank Bruni, a Pulitizer Prize winner who was the restaurant critic for five years until 2009. To repay Bruce Ratner, the co-owner of the Times building on 8th Avenue with the Times, Bloomberg arranged for Ratner to get permission to issue some 498 EB-5 visas to investors at Ratner's Atlantic yards project. The investors paid $500,000 each for their "green cards," with their investments supposed creating 10 jobs each, or about 5,000 jobs. At its peak, the Atlantic Yards project employed 400 employees. If not for Bloomberg's illegal re-election, the Atlantic Yards project would have cratered.
This is horrible!
Has anyone been arrested?
'voting' ?
What a joke. Do people actually believe there are honest vote counts, or that the media won't be used to sway the gullible 'voting' public ?
Prediction - - the 'vote' result will be that the Greeks take it up the rear till they have no rear left.
Pretty clear all the major banks and financial institutions are depserate for a "yes" vote and are doing all they can to sway voters
Saturday is vote buying day. Watch for headline from EU stating if vote YES, Greece will receive ESM assistance.
How about a YES vote to dispand the EU?
Y or N EUR = Short .....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c1Vtzn3MZyA
Fook u BItcheeeeeezzzzzzssssss
vote counting could be even faster this time as it’s a yes or no question
SInce the outcome is already known (stay in the EU and bend over), the vote counting should be even faster!
Bet on the EU sociopaths to win. The real vote is - now that we closed the banks and made your life difficult, do you want some of your money back and life returned to normal, yes or no?
There will be NO GREXIT ever.
These are all just drama to confuse the people.
most likely, the result is going to be "yes" anyway, cuz votes are goping to be rigged. Ther's too much money involved for cabal. its nothing to them to pay 20-100 mil for rigged result.
it is going to "yes", people are not ready to go cold turkey in hot greece.
So now fed rate rises are dictated by a Greek referendum. Totally in control, that Fed.
Yes = Continue the great lie kick the can with a larger boot. The final outcome will be a slow death for all.
No= Get down to the recovery phase . After the initial pain hope will prevail.
Sadly, the vote question is just on the old expired offer -- thus a yes or no vote doesn't really decide anything - especially since it will be spun by both sides, and new offers will come up. The vote should be 'default on all loans or not" - or 'accept more austerity or not' - or something that draws a real line in the sand.
SinglularLogic, which has been hired to run the vote counting and data processing.
Oh, okay. I'm sure an opaque and non-auditable vote affecting the economic fortunes of millions of people outside Greece will be perfectly free of any shenanigans.
The well informed IMF has already voted no. Too bad they have no credibility left.
I don't think the vote will be 'yes'. The people on this planet do have a history of voting for their oppressors (I.e. Benjamin Nahenyatu). But Tsipras/ Varoufakis have played their hands extremely well. Clearly showing the Troika's unreasonableness and not allowing for rigged interpretations.
It's like the end of 'Runaway Jury' where the antagonist asks the main character 'how did you rig the vote, I have never seen someone sway all jurors like that'. John Cusacks character responds that he didn't rig it, he just let people vote with their hearts. Therefore the 'bad guy' loses.
Right thing to say amongst those that understand the corruption of politics and the markets? Lol.
"The people on this planet do have a history of voting for their oppressors."
That's the same observation I've made over the years too. People unreasonably fear the unknown exponentially more than the known oppressor whose daily torture they have become comfortable with. It's strange to me, but such is the way of the world it appears.
"The people on this planet do have a history of voting for their oppressors."
milgram experiment.
How did this happen? Who's to blame? Well certainly there are those more responsible than others, and they will be held accountable, but again truth be told, if you're looking for the guilty, you need only look into a mirror. I know why you did it. I know you were afraid. Who wouldn't be? War, terror, disease. There were a myriad of problems which conspired to corrupt your reason and rob you of your common sense. Fear got the best of you, and in your panic you turned to the now Prime Minister, Alex Tsipras. He promised you order, he promised you peace, and all he demanded in return was your silent, obedient consent.......
V says vote "No".
... when the dra(ch)ma is over, the BRICS will offer a bailout gift and that's when the Tricka, sorry, the Troika will blink and cough a counter-offer at the behest of the United-most-nearly-an-empire-States ... why? ... NATO wouldn't even dream of losing the Hellenic Republic's strategic port locations (crossroads of Asia, Africa, Europe & Middle East) to the BRICS consortium ... who knows, the AIIB might just supply the initial bailout (it could be the 'hint' Beijing is dropping off here >>> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-02/china-state-official-hints-beijing-may-bailout-greece ...)
What's the demographics of Greece? Pensioners will vote yes, the young and working will vote no. Basically the old and senile telling the young to fuck off and "pay me my money".
Soon to be an American drama....
"Pensions are a hell of a drug" - Rick James
"That girl's a super freak" - Rick James
I think your analysis is incorrect. The Greeks themselves will not align with the russians or chinese geopolitically. The people just won't do it, unless in utter poverty. It's not like Ukraine where some are already aligned, and others have at least some feeling of kinship. The Greeks are european, both ethnically and culturally, and they won't switch teams. Maybe if people are starving and begging in the streets. But short of that, no way.
The US knows both this and that the europeans won't let Greece fail. The US is free to work the situation any way it pleases.
Most Greeks are socialist by nature. They will vote 'yes' for big brother to take care of them, then continue to whine about the terms.
Betting market implied probability YES = 67%
No GREXIT in 2015 implied probability = 85%
Sources: UK Bookmakers and Betfair
I bet there will be yes, no chance the banksters will let this turn out in favour of no.
But hey, Greeks can go for another referendum, just like the fucked up EU assholes did it with the Lisbon agreement in some states, right?
There is no courage in deciding to be a slave of the banksters forever . The real courage is to go your own way and restart .....
You are going to be free with no debts , no negotiations . Just restart like Island did .
iF IT'S A YES THEN TSIPRAS WILL BE RELACED BY A FUCKING TECHNOCRAT. THEY'VE ALEADY HAD SOME OF THAT SHIT.
GO LONG CHAINS AND SHACKLES, ABOUT 12 MILLION SETS, EVERYBODY IS GOING TO GET SOME.
introducing....SAMARAS.
"Bloomberg News showing 43% intend to vote “no” and 42.5% backing a “yes” while 14.5% remain undecided"
I'm sick of this... why is it every election in modern times seems to have the people split exactly down the middle? I don't buy it. Seems like nothing by lies by the TPTB to be able to swing the election in their favor with minimal input.
And why hire software firms? Electronic votes are much easier rigged it would seem than paper ballots....
Freedom... yeah right....
On the same page! See comment above..
shit is hitting the fan... my brother is reporting in Athens and says its been awful there all week... nothing works ATMs empty CC machines offline,,, people have no money.. the shelves are bare...pensioners are totally fucked!!!!
some union.... and coming to a town near you soon...
www.teamramgold.com
The poll will be rigged by the IMF/EU/ZWO gangbanbksters.
Guaranteed.
Just like they rigged the Swiss gold vote and every other decision that matters.
These folk have a busy weekend:
My prediction..
They will vote yes, the government disband, the people fleeced more for the next few years by another stooge.
This next time the Troika will make sure no disenters are allowed in government.
Market rallies, gold hit hard Monday. .
Where ballots & banksters are involved make sure you're on the watch for fraud & deception! Look at the Swiss Gold Repatriation vote where the banking cartel was brazenly distorting facts and ridiculizing the proposition for their own gains, and in Scotland where banksters again were overtly pulling strings to prop up little doggy Cameron! just saying!
If it's 50/50 with the deciders not having a clue what to do, this means when it's time to put a X in a square they;re going to bend over and say, Yes sir please may I have another. They are going to vote yes for more debt and to be debt slave forever.
my prediction:
NAI is a “yes” - 0% voters
OXI is a “no” - 100% voters
"YES" or "NO" the bankster buddies are going to make such an example of Greece that everyone else will shake in their boots at the mere letters, "IMF."
"YES" and they will be cut down to eating worms.
"NO" and they will be cut down to eating slugs.
THIS IS GREECE: The story directly from Athens, Greece:
- We expect to see a 70% NO at the referendum...it could go much higher but not less.
- The good scenario: Goverment declares banks liquidation on Monday and exit from euro and EU.
- IF the goverment doesn't nationalize the banks on Monday morning its game over for Syriza and Tsipras.
- Chaos will be the prevailing scenario untill someone declares the Grexit after that...Lets hope this never happens.
What happened to the Greeks who built the Parthenon?
Since the EU are nothing but bullies, they will simply rig the election to go their way. This is how the political elite have gotten so much power in the past 10 years. Just saw this article and agree with the synopsis:
http://www.infowars.com/economist-troika-planning-to-rig-greek-referendum/
And so the bankster plan is revealed.
Let it be written, let it be done.
OxiClean Tackles Troika Stains – Inside and Out
With a crowbar.
I think the referendum should have read...
"Yes" or "No" or "Maybe"
It's the European Onion.
No mmatter how many layers they peel back, it still stinks and will cause a lot of tears.
My guess is a yes vote to accept whatever new deal they are offered. (as the old deal no longer exists) At this point, one can only imagine the horrors contained in the "New Deal."
Everyone's assuming the voting isn't rigged... Surely that couldn't happen! /sarc
I predict that if the outcome of the vote is "Yes", it will only be because of a conspiracy.
And, correspondingly, if the outcome is "No", it will also be because of a conspiracy.
So how are they doing this polling in Greece? Are they walking through the streets and countryside asking people? Are they doing it by phone, when a large proportion of the population can't afford electricity let alone phones?
This is all polling with a very select sample that may bear no relationship to the population at large.