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What It All Comes Down To On Sunday
As expected (and as tipped here on Thursday immediately after news broke that an IMF study conducted prior to the imposition of capital controls in Greece suggests debt relief for Athens is necessary if anyone hopes to create some semblance of sustainability), Greek PM Alexis Tsipras is now leaning hard on voters to carefully consider the fact that one-third of the troika has effectively validated the Greek government’s position on creditor writedowns.
“This position was never proposed to the Greek government over the five months of negotiations, wasn’t included in final offer tabled by creditor institutions, on which people are going to vote on July 5,” Tsipras said in a televised address, making it clear to Greeks that the proposals they are voting on effectively do not reflect the views of the institution that is perhaps the country’s most influential creditor.
“This IMF report justifies our choice not to accept an agreement which ignores the fundamental issue of debt,” he added, driving the point home.
Clearly, this puts Europe, and especially Germany, in a rather unpalatable position. Many EU officials have for months insisted that IMF participation is critical if the Greeks hope to secure a third bailout. The IMF meanwhile, has stuck to a position first adopted years ago (something we’ve noted in these pages multiple times of late); namely that official sector writedowns will ultimately be necessary if Brussels hopes to finally put the Greek tragicomedy to bed. This means Brussels (and Berlin) will now be forced to choose between IMF involvement (which the EU says is a precondition for a deal) and haircuts (which the EU says aren’t possible).
Here’s Barclays - a major investment bank - with its own confirmation that the IMF may have assured a No vote over the weekend.
The document basically argues that OSI is a necessary condition in order to secure sovereign solvency with a high probability. This means that before the IMF re-engages in any lending activities with Greece, OSI will be required in the form of NPV debt relief.
The timing of the publication of this report it is very important. Debt relief is something that the Greek authorities have repeatedly demanded; therefore, in a way this report can be interpreted as the IMF backing the Greek government's demands. By extension, it could also be interpreted as supportive of a 'No' vote, which is what the Greek government is campaigning for.
We agree broadly with the analytical content of the report and the need for further OSI. This is in fact hardly new news. Europe has recognized since November 2012 that Greece needs further OSI to make debt dynamics sustainable with high probability. The IMF advice of an NPV haircut via a debt maturity extension (to 40 years) is in line with expectations.
However, the critical point is that the IMF now requires debt-relief before it engages in a new programme, which confronts Europeans with a tough political decision. Many in Europe, including Germany, considered OSI as a future carrot in exchange for reforms today following good programme execution. Debt relief was conceived as a part of a third programme to be negotiated possibly with a new Greek government.
At the same time, Germany has been adamant about the importance of IMF involvement in any financial support programme for Greece. Thus, Germany will now be confronted with a tough choice: to deliver on the IMF's demand, ie to engage in OSI negotiations in the form of NPV debt relief, or give up on IMF involvement. We believe that there is mounting support across other member states for the OSI discussion, therefore, we believe that Germany may not be able to resist such discussions any longer.
"I am guessing that this is a negotiating tactic ahead of the negotiations for a new programme for Greece. The IMF very well knows that a debt write-off is out of the question," one unnamed EU official told MNI.
“The numbers are quite high, not in line with our assessment and our baseline scenario. We are examining different scenarios for the day after the referendum and provided the vote is Yes, we are ready to come up with solutions. But it is not going to be easy to agree. Certainly this report does not make it any easier," another source said.
It's easy to see why Europe is reluctant to accept the IMF's assessment. As discussed at length on Thursday, were Europe to go down the OMI road, Brussels would be opening Pandora's Box. Here's why:
By now it should be clear to all that the only reason why Germany has been so steadfast in its negotiating stance with Greece is because it knows very well that if it concedes to a public debt reduction (as opposed to haircut on debt held mostly by private entities such as hedge funds which already happened in 2012), then the rest of the PIIGS will come pouring in: first Italy, then Spain, then Portugal, then Ireland.
The problem is that while it took Europe some 5 years to transfer a little over €200 billion in Greek private debt exposure to the public balance sheet (by way of the ECB, EFSF, ESM and countless other ad hoc acronyms) at a cost of countless summits and endless negotiations, which may or may not result with the first casualty of the common currency which may prove to be reversible as soon as next week, nobody in Europe harbors any doubt that the same exercise can be repeated with Italy, or Spain, or even Portugal. They are just too big (and their nonperforming loans are in the hundreds of billions).
As for the IMF's position, Barclays notes that a permanent default by Greece would not be a trivial event, thus providing further incentive for the Fund to push for EU writedowns:
With the IMF’s total resources being roughly USD760bn – USD420bn of which are considered the ‘forward commitment capacity’ – the IMF has the firepower to ‘survive’ a permanent default of Greece while maintaining sufficient resources to be able to lend out fresh credit for countries in need. However, it would make a significant dent in the ongoing IMF finances – eg, the interest paid on IMF loans is used to cover IMF’s operational cost – and would very likely create intense debate about Europe’s relationship with the IMF and the balance of power between DM and EM members. One question could also be whether or not the euro area IMF members should not in some way be liable for the outstanding Greek debts. In turn, this would also intensify a debate about the sharing of liabilities/solidarity within the euro area and the EU.
So, thanks to a well-timed IMF report, Tsipras can now frame Sunday's plebiscite as a simple Yes/No vote on Greece's debt pile, which makes it far easier to vote "no."
"Do you think Europe should forgive your debt, check box 'Yes' or 'No'."
That should be an easy choice, although it depends upon the Greek public understanding the significance of the IMF's position which, as indicated above, Tsipras is doing his very best to facilitate. The bottom line: Sunday's vote is about whether Greece will agree to remain a debt colony of Germany, pardon Europe, even as the IMF (and, paradoxically, Germany) agrees with Athens that the country's debt is unsustainable.
"No" means a lot of pain now and recovery later.
"Yes" means less pain now but no hope of recovery ever.
* * *
Choose wisely...
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I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy http://www.philiacband.com/propaganda.html
If this vote is anything like the Scotland independence referendum then the outcome will be the same and the elites win.
... I’d like to save Greece, but where would I put it?
Sunday? Just another page in history where bad corrupt governments and their counterpart, money lenders, destroy a people. And yes, history will be repeated and soon.
LORD POLONIUS
Yet here, Laertes! aboard, aboard, for shame!
The wind sits in the shoulder of your sail,
And you are stay'd for. There; my blessing with thee!
And these few precepts in thy memory
See thou character. Give thy thoughts no tongue,
Nor any unproportioned thought his act.
Be thou familiar, but by no means vulgar.
Those friends thou hast, and their adoption tried,
Grapple them to thy soul with hoops of steel;
But do not dull thy palm with entertainment
Of each new-hatch'd, unfledged comrade. Beware
Of entrance to a quarrel, but being in,
Bear't that the opposed may beware of thee.
Give every man thy ear, but few thy voice;
Take each man's censure, but reserve thy judgment.
Costly thy habit as thy purse can buy,
But not express'd in fancy; rich, not gaudy;
For the apparel oft proclaims the man,
And they in France of the best rank and station
Are of a most select and generous chief in that.
Neither a borrower nor a lender be;
For loan oft loses both itself and friend,
And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry.
This above all: to thine ownself be true,
And it must follow, as the night the day,
Thou canst not then be false to any man.
Farewell: my blessing season this in thee!
And so it is said.
And well spoken too.
Hear, hear!
That we all may be free of such bondage!
Time for a new 4th of July holiday Golden Jackass interview on TFMR
Turd and the Jackass for 1.5 hours...what could possibly go wrong? haha :-)
It's on the house, so if ya wanna kill some time and hear Jim Willie's thoughts on the geo-political and economic collapse underway as we speak, there here's the link:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/6968/jackass-our-own-yankee-doodle-dandy
Enjoy this 4th of July, folks. Think about what it means and what it stands for. The future of freedom not just in America but the rest of the world hasn't been in this much jeopardy since WWII. The new threats to freedom and liberty are hitting us from all angles. Get prepared. By this time next year the scumbags in charge will be banning the 4th of July just as they're banning everything else and driving us into another world war situation.
"Greece is the strongest believer of justice."
"Greece is being tested again and again but its inner soul is eternal"
Nikos Kazandjakis
"The world should act accordingly" my take.
WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE?
Seriously..
Other than it changing Greek government, this vote doesn't mean shit for ever paying back the Troika.
This is just more stupid drama so all the blame goes to the poor Greeks for voting one way or the other when they've been slaughtered already
It's so fucking stupid now.
Percy Bysshe Shelley (1792-1822)
Ozymandias.
I MET a Traveler from an antique land,
Who said, "Two vast and trunkless legs of stone
Stand in the desart. Near them, on the sand,
Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown,
And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command,
Tell that its sculptor well those passions read,
Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things,
The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed:
And on the pedestal these words appear:
"My name is OZYMANDIAS, King of Kings."
Look on my works ye Mighty, and despair!
No thing beside remains. Round the decay
Of that Colossal Wreck, boundless and bare,
The lone and level sands stretch far away.
reintroducing PARTYBOY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsYGzhjXkTA
NEXT ! PARTIBOY IN GREECE !!!
STAY TUNES BABY ! WOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOO
A good comment I came across...
From a pure corporate finance price modelling perspective, the most prudent thing Greece can do right now is to default on its debt - completely, in full and without recourse. As simple as that. One things some big economists and EU politicians do not know, is that "opportunity to default" is in fact a function that has to be taken into account alongside interest rate to determine the true costs of borrowing of an entity. It is a pure science, all referrals to morality and other krap are also well addressed in modern scientific research - it is called Game Theory. In this respect - Greece had a great run. Not her fault some idiots with CFA and MBA certifications in Northern Europe decided to land her all that money.
It does not make sense to try to repay all those truckloads of money and compromise on lifestyle of three generations of the Greek people. It puts Greek people onto some form of depravation for somewhat 50 years. For God's sake Germany burned the whole Europe about as long time ago and nobody would recall that the owe them after 50 years post WW2!
Just default, dear Greece. You did enough for those EU morons - invented their civilisation, protected it from Persia, invented gay culture as main stream 2,500 years ago and many more thing which you can't put a value on. Nobody will kick you out of EU. Don't worry. In ten years everyone will be queuing to give you more money! Just do it already! You were supposed to do it in 2009! This show becomes longer than Mexican soap operas.
cosmos, repeat your comment for another ten countries(and years). the transfere of responsibity of the bad loans (fees, fees, and moar ill motivated profits-cue goldman sak of shit) and the lack of chaining back to these culprits and a consequence. and of course the leaders that profited from these loans(too). so what we have is treason. leaders taking oaths and betraying the peoples they represented, and once again, no consequences. kinda what i see every day in merica, parents that allows kids to run the show, actions with no consequences. a society becoming moar and moar corrupt and without moral compass will not sustain, but that could be true of most(given enuf tyme).
freedom is all corrupting, because given enough time human virtues destroy freedom.
not enough wagon pullers and too many FSAers...
my rant for lack of independence day
my dad is a staunch liberal. everything is for 'the children'. but i stymied him when i pointed out the debt and the portion due by each of his grandkids. and i dare not point out he is leaving no inheritance, because he withdrew his funds at a rapid pace and produced no income for way too many years. (he could easily have left all surviving him money to cover their portion of the debt, but he spent it on himself). his new 'wife' will get the balance. his financial existence is exactly where greece is at.
my dad's credo: trayvon, barry, hillary, the children, and blindly passing on debt....blaming it on the rich (of where he once was a fringe member)
i have money......im pointing out the hypocrisy of the debt builders.
Where it will be decideed:
https://foursquare.com/v/diebold-hellas/4f831a28e4b042dc234b4fea
Moral hazard has a price and that price is EU membership. How do you keep italy spain and portugal from doing the same thing. Revoke the privilege of unfettered EU travel and trade. That is the price for default and not playing ball. 40% unemployment, depositor bail ins (make the Greeks pay for it), and worthless pensions. Followed by civil unrest and then...... civil war.
The whole thing makes me mad....if a bond holder wants collateral, then it should be defined at issuance. Otherwise....too damn bad!!
You are very close to the first principle.
"Principle." WTH is that, a relic of the past?
PARTYBOOOOOOOY TROIKA IN DA MIX, COME ON PEOPLE !!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jUhwBxTJorE
( jeez i laught so hard my belly gimme pain )
.
"Do you think Europe should forgive your debt, check box 'Yes' or 'No'."
"No" means a lot of pain now and recovery later.
"Yes" means less pain now but no hope of recovery ever.
Am I reading this right? Tsipras wants people to vote for not having debt forgiven? Or is it supposed to mean that they default if the debt is not forgiven?
HERE IT IS:
The Greek people are asked to decide with their vote whether to accept the outline of the agreement submitted by the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund at the Eurogroup of 25/06/15 and is made up of two parts which constitute their unified proposal:
Principle? Principles? What fucking principles?
Do a "Google" search: "german price-fixing scandals".
Go ahead and do it before you talk/write about the "hard-working German" vs "the lazy Greek worker".
Here in CH, 20 Bayer 500mg aspirin cost $10.--, that's right: $10.--
20 500 mg Swiss generic aspirin cost: $4.--
The pharmacies don't 'feature' the generic brand but the German Bayer are on view at the cash register.
FUCK GERMANY and its lies and bullshit.
I upvote myself 100 times
Good job!
The one thing that's actually cheap in the US for healthcare.
20 500 mg aspirin runs about $2-3.
German asprins $10
Teva aspirins (Israeli Co.) $ 3
LOLOLOL
Dem Jews bleeding you dry.
Maybe those Germans got expenses...
Attack of the Dindus:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-kent-33393593
Looks like an unauthorized run to The Isle of Greener Pastures Inc.
It will all depend on how the media frames this the next two days. People are stupid and will believe and do what the media says. Who owns or controls the media???
But we have said it so here.
AND SO I SHALL BE!
WE ARE THE REPOSITORY OF TRUTH!
STEP ASIDE POLITICAL MINDERS!
THERE IS A NEW JUDGE IN TOWN AND ITS NAME IS ZERO HEDGE!
I just keep it in a jar on the back of the stove. When it fills up, I throw it away and start with a new empty peanut butter jar.
Nice analogy. ;-)
Sounds Greecey
If it is hot Greece, don't put it into a plastic conainer. Glass is best.
What does George Soros want? I would put my money on what that sick cocksucker wants because he is a propaganda whore.
Who?
"Because aslong as I crush your currncy for profit it's okay...
If I wanted to front-run the outcome of the vote, I'd simply look at the price of Gold charts.
$1165/oz? Ouch! So much for being the go-to asset in times of Risk, or a Store of Value. It's behaving like a Commodity, where Timing is EVERYTHING.
Too bad Greeks don't have the cash to buy Gold now, at these bargain -basement prices.
Too bad Greeks don't have the cash to buy Gold now, at these bargain -basement prices?!
------
You are not right. Our coin shop in Cyprus - "KDG Gold", does not have time to restore every day gold in our stock. We have never had such a huge demand for gold, including demand from our Greek customers.
Talk about "in need of King Midas."
Looks like the proverbial Maze with the Minotar now...
Gold does no good for the greek people. What they need are cash euros they can spend on daily living. They needed to cash out their bank accounts, or move it to another country before the bank closures this week.
They had 7 years to do that, and the example of depositor haircuts in cyprus. Anybody getting screwed now has only themselves to blame.
Gold does no good for the greek people?
Except for one thing:
Gold does not allow any government or banks to rob you.
You need both. Cash for expenses. Gold for cash you won't need for more than a decade.
Most folks are making the assumption that the Greek people have a choice when they may only have the illusion of a choice. We certainly live under that illusion in the USA.
The ECB's policy of "whatever it takes" may very well extend into rigging elections. I wouldn't put it past these criminals to do just that. And if they can't rig an election they can certainly manufacture a coup as has been done time and again in the history of tyrannical governments (including our own).
I think GREECE overseering and PTB already have a yes or no vote chosen. They just have to keep the greek people busy so they do not have time to see the bullshit.
Reverendum, is just a diverter tool. You know it.
Also Gold looks to be in trouble.... GOLD CHART here. ==> http://bit.ly/1fMcakI UH OH!!!
Maybe that is telling us something. Normally people move to gold, when things get back, but have a look at the chart, GOLD is in serious trouble.
So it looks like this GREECe crisis, will be resolved. Heck in two weeks from now, I bet no one will give a damn about greece and what happened, they are only 1.4% of all of europe. Not big enough to WORRY or CARE.
putting this up to a referendum is shirking his duties. tsipras was elected to do a difficult job, not throw it back on the people who are largely unqualified to understand the perpetual debt they would commit themselves to and would be voting out of fear.
Greece, in all reality, has only two choices. Either stick with the current slave master as nauseating as that seems, or get cast aside in the hopes of finding a new benefactor that will loan them the money to live beyond their means once again.
Greece is like the college student that borrowed heavily to fund their college lifestyle while also using ten different credit cards to pay for all the drugs, clothes and good times.
Now that the student has graduated only to find the job market cubbard bare and the easy credit card offers have dried up while Uncle Sugar and the ten nasty credit card companies want their money back with interest.
They do have a third option and that is just to suck it up and stop living beyond their means. But, they're like the pretty sorority girl that was the life of the party and had plenty of suitors lined up willing to pay her freight through life. But, now that she's long in the tooth and has lost her looks she's consigned to standing by the side of the road and selling herself like a toothless crack whore.
I WISH my "representatives" would ask for, or give a shit about my opnion on important decisions
Option #4 Silver backed drachma, currency of the common man
I disagree. The Greek citizens have put their leadership in an impossible position. 80% of Greeks want to stay in the Euro, but 80% of them don't want cuts to their pensions. Those two positions cannot coexist. If Tsipras makes any choice, he'll be blamed as the scapegoat. Better to put the decision back on those who have the power.
Dear ZH Snob!
Do you think that you are authorized to determine, for what goals was elected Tsiprus? Or do you think that you are authorized to determine how Tsiprusa work more easy and more difficult?
Who are you - Lord God, or an official in Brussels who imagined himself as God?
The Tylers are so full of shit to print that "headline" - it's exactly the opposite which is being voted on.
The choice is very easy. Choose no and you have a future, choose yes and you do not. The reason for voting no is that this problem has occurred 775 timess in history and has been fixed 100% of the time by a debt write off (No vote)...so if you still vote yes...you have not been very wise
Coffee's for closers
PUT THAT BALLOT DOWN!
PICK THAT BALLOT UP BUT DON'T READ ZERO HEDGE.
It comes down to slavery within industrial civilization or no industrial civilization. Not a pleasant choice.
Why do people think that a high standard of living requires wearing chains?
Because small links of silver/gold in the chain can be broken off and used as an exchange. An old use that may come back into play.
Fear of metal one thing...
Fear of Paper, Cotton and Linen?
Indeed...those in "authority" have much to fear...
PT,
Think about what it does require. Hint: it's more than electing your favored ideologue.
Iceland checked the Yes box. They're doing just fine.
If your 'recovery' is dependant on others, you're screwed.
Well that's it exactly, isn't it?
Thus far the talk has been about finance. Eventually it will be about physics. What can Greeks produce? Can they feed themselves? What do they create that the world wants?
The finance talk obscures fundamental reality.
You are very close to the first principle.
"Iceland checked the Yes box. They're doing just fine."
WRONG, WRONG WRONG.
Iceland checked the OXI/NO box. You have utterly confused the question of the referendum.
Iceland had the nerve to say NO to GB and NL threats - but Iceland also has her Krone.
The Greeks seem a little more pissed off this time around. I think you can safely say the OXIs will have it - one way or another.
The vote itself is a toss-up: what pensioner is going to vote for dog food dinners? What government worker is going to vote to be fired? What family on welfare is going to vote to be homeless and starve? The voting process is fake and being executed under duress. What slave is going to vote for unfamiliar new pain over old, familiar pain? The Greek vote itself is meaningless, though. Simply because the Yes (='Nai') votes are votes by the weak to do nothing and continue to take it up the ass from the Troika. The OXIs (='No' votes) are pissed - really pissed. If they 'lose' the referendum, they'll reject the vote, tear Greece apart and burn the banks. Good for them - I'll cheer them on.
Greece IS the birthplace of direct democracy. Majority rules, unless the majority is zombified and the minority is sufficiently pissed off to refuse majority rule.
Enlightened majority -or- enlightened pitchforks and torches is the REAL people's choice and has been all along. That's Greek democracy. Come to think of it, that's American democracy, too. Nobody should ever 'fear' the supposed tyranny of a spineless majority rule. The majority has to have the backbone to defend or enforce a decision after they check a box on paper. If they don't have the backbone, then their votes are irrelevant. Simple as that.
Direct democracy has NEVER meant the administrative exercise of checking a box. That's just the easy first part that usually prevents the second 'torches and pitchforks' part of direct democracy from being invoked. Who defined direct democracy that way - majority 'usually' rules, unless...? Who the fuck cares - that's the way I damn well plan on practicing it. I owe it to a bunch of dead guys who did the exact same thing. I will cheer the Greeks when the OXIs do the same thing.
A corrupted, usurped Rule of Law only applies on the outside of the feed chute of a wood-chipper. Inside... not so much.
Big Corked Boots is an idiot. Iceland voted NO - exactly the equivalent of what Syriza is asking the Greeks to vote: NO. NO to debt gauging status quo going into the future. A Yes vote means the opposite. If Iceland had voted Yes it would still be mired in some excremental recession.
Iceland received a huge loan from the IMF and other countries as well. Iceland has its own currency as well.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anS9Ze0bmXmM
Big Corked Boots is full of shit.
The average person thinks, "I have no moral duty to repay that debt which was created by politicians, for politicians", and feels absolutely no guilt concerning its repudiation.
This is the central flaw in the EU bureaucrat scheme to impoverish and rule Europe. It is also the same game ender for the assholes here in the US.
Their only recourse to stay in power is distract everyone with war, just like they did in WW2. It won't work this time.
Exactly. The question shouldn't be:
"Do you think Europe should forgive your debt, check box 'Yes' or 'No'."
it should be
"Do you think you, as a citizen, are responsible for debts contracted by a foreign corporation on your behalf without your informed consent?"
To which the check boxes should read 'No' and 'HELL No'. This will never happen of course, but it will come into play some day in the U.S. - no matter how much fake morality the MSM tries to smear over the issue, I am damn well not obligated to the debts of an unrepresentative government, especially when citizens recieve no benefit from that debt.
Should the government have put a treasonous fake war on terror/drugs/privacy on MY credit card? Nope. Pay it back? Go pound salt - print up more fake money and pay it back yourself.
The ONLY question on a referendum should be, "Are the little people of Greece going to pay back your usurped government's complex theft scheme?" There shouldn't be any checkboxes - the answers are to be found in torches, pitchforks and a good wood-chipper. Check-boxes are useless without those tools backing them up.
The Germans should have a referendum too: "Should the German people go to war with Greece to extract payment for loans contracted by a foreign corporation and paid out with German money on behalf of German citizens without their informed consent?"
I think you are confused. The question is not whether the Greek _private_ sector shall pay. They are to be squeezed like juice oranges, regardless. The question is whether Greece's creditors, or Greek government workers and pensioners, shall be paid first.
Greece's collection agency hounding it is the Troika, which bought an ALREADY unserviceable loan from French and Wall Street banks for the full amount - not at a discount. What collection agency is that STUPID?
The fraud was originally perpetrated as unpayable bonds five years ago. The Troika coumpounded the problem by CRIMINALLY paying off the private bondholders on busted bonds, then turning around and telling the German people that THEY were on the hook for damn near all of Greek's unserviceable loan. It's pointless to pay the collection agency (Troika) another dime and immoral to stop paying Greek pensioners. I won't even touch the lunacy of having so many Greek government workers employed today that anyone should still be asking if they should be paid.
The Troika backstopped bad bank loans (busted bonds) with German public money. Were is the trial? Where are the Germans demanding the Troika have their necks stretched? The Troika NEVER loaned the money in good faith to the Greeks - they simply paid off French and Wall St. banks THROUGH the Greek government and became the collection agency.
Asking for any sympathy for the Troika is like asking for sympathy for a collection agency that buys bad debt at full face value and then cries when it can't collect that amount. Why doesn't the Troika go back to the French and Wall St. banks and claw back half of what they paid for busted bonds??
This short interview pretty much sums up the criminal act.
What's a 50% write down between friends ... not even worth mentioning is it? That interview certainly seems to think so. What it does mention is the Brady Plan ... as if that was a 100% write down.
PS. defaulting won't help them pay those pensions for long ... they'll get cut one way or the other.
The write-down SHOULD have been by the French banks five years ago. That's why they damn well better have had CDS to cover their crappy Greek bonds. French banks refusal to let (or demand that) the bonds default started the whole chain of clownfuckery.
1. French banks realize bonds are busted, but didn't buy enough insurance or whatever so they are completely fucked.
2. Wall St. banks offer pennies on the dollar for the bonds, making French banks a little less screwed and making the busted Greed bonds someone else's problem. French Banks: Oui!
Why would Wall St. banks buy such shit? Because their bribes, graft, corruption backed by politics mean they can convince another sucker - the Troika - to buy those bonds from them at full face value. Profit? 200%, maybe 300% or so. Not bad for conspiracy to defraud. German citizens? APPARENTLY TOO STUPID TO CALL WALL ST. CRIMINALS AND TROIKA ON THEIR CRIME. Instead of blaming the criminals, blame the lazy Greeks for not repaying Troika (when they never could have paid the French bank bondholders or Wall St. con men - ever).
3. Troika perpetrates the ponzi further by repeatedly loaning Greece even more money to make Troika loan payments on debt that should have been in default since 2009. This is plain and simple loan-sharking.
Now: Greeks AND Germans backed against a wall deciding who gets screwed first/most, pointing fingers at each other even though both of them were conned. Neither one 'wins' no matter what. Wall St. bankers laughing their ass off at the carnage and French Banks breathing a sigh of relief that they got out of the way before the shit hit the fan.
What should happen? Claw back ever last dime of profit from all the Wall St. banks BEFORE criminal prosecution/wood-chippers. Use the proceeds from that fraud to pay the German people. Gut the Troika and send them to the Hauge. THEN everyone can argue about how much blood to squeeze out of the Greeks and their ruined nation. Make sure that the death penalty is mandatory for any bank, financial institution or government organization that ever conspires to commit such a fraud again.
What will happen? Greeks and Germans get screwed. French (and every other nation's) Banks continue buying shitty bonds until they bust. Wall St. banks collude with criminal government agencies to get paid in full for bonds they bought for pennies on the dollar. Taxpayers somewhere else get SCREWED again. In other words, NOTHING WILL CHANGE. The banking syndicate has successfully put the little people at each other's throats to cover up their crimes. It's all about the mean Germans and the deadbeat Greeks, not the Jewish banking oligarchs and their cronies.
""Do you think Europe should forgive your debt, check box 'Yes' or 'No'.""
Once again: that is NOT what the referendum is asking the Greek citizens to vote on. Not at all.
Find out what the NO vote, which is recommended by Syriza, means. It's not at all what you think.
"I have no moral duty to repay that debt which was created by politicians, for politicians"
You are very close to the first principle.
You keep saying that. Care to enlighten me as to what the first principle is? Or are you just sandbagging?
Not that theres anything wrong with sandbags. I have a bunch in the garage waiting to be used. I live in near constant fear of floods you know.
The first principle of all principles is no contradiction.
Aren't the no and yes responses incorrect? Yes to the question posed provides some hope, in theory.
Surely anyone reading the article will be confused.
quoted from the article:
............................................
Tsipras can now frame Sunday's plebiscite as a simple Yes/No vote on Greece's debt pile, which makes it far easier to vote "no."
"Do you think Europe should forgive your debt, check box 'Yes' or 'No'.
...
"No" means a lot of pain now and recovery later. "Yes" means less pain now but no hope of recovery ever.
...........................................................................
[ The article clearly or not so clearly, intentionally or not, MISTAKENLY
contends that Greeks who believe there should be (onerous) debt forgiveness
ought to vote "yes" on the referendum.]
Agreed. Had to give the article a 4 instead of 5 for that very reason.
Tyler's Greek coverage has often shown a mysterious sympathy for the ECB side, which should have none, simply because their position is that Greece should accomplish the IMPOSSIBLE.
Sure, Germany has a point and Greece's case is hardly sympathetic. But the IMPOSSIBLE, quite clearly, will never come to pass. No serious commentator should even pretend to consider it. To pretend that the ECB proposal has any realistic hope is only to confuse the issue (which is probably why so many here are often confused).
Of course Greece won't be paying these debts. That which cannot happen, by definition, will not. Until the ECB makes some real concessions, disposing of the ECB side is as simple as that, and it has been ever since Syriza's election.
"Of course Greece won't be paying these debts. That which cannot happen, by definition, will not. Until the ECB makes some real concessions, disposing of the ECB side is as simple as that, and it has been ever since Syriza's election."
You are very close to the first principle.
HERE IT IS:
The Greek people are asked to decide with their vote whether to accept the outline of the agreement submitted by the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund at the Eurogroup of 25/06/15 and is made up of two parts which constitute their unified proposal:
I should point out that if they vote "yes" (to further bailout conditions). There will be an enormous greek migration as anybody below the age of 30 gets up, leaves and becoming economic migrants, looking for work a better life throughout the rest of Europe.
This has happened many times before in many countries.
That's not the way Tyler titled the intro to this piece!
"Do you think Europe should forgive your debt, check box 'Yes' or 'No'."
I know, which is confusing.
The proposed question seems to be something like "do you agree to the proposed conditions to obtain further bailout funds from the IMF".
"Do you agree that no one knows what's going on ouzo there, no one cares and it does not matter?"
I VOTE YES!
Have you stopped beating your wife?
"Do you agree that no one knows what's going on ouzo there,"
You are very close to the first principle.
Do you wanna fuck, check No.
Do you wanna be fucked, check Yes.
Hopefully, the Greek State will tell the banks to go fuck themselves and not allow any bail-in. (I have doubts about that) The best my teeny little mind can come up with is a total default, declaration of 'Odious Debt', we're not paying a penny more for anything to any creditor and fuck you very much.
Oh, Hi, Putin, we have a nice port right over here that we'd be happy to lease to you. And we'd be more than thrilled to lease our land for pipelines that flow with oil, gas and natural gas that we can access at a substantial discount. Hi, China, there's an underused port right over there that we'd be happy to lease to you, subject to tenant improvements to the port and port supporting facilities, oh, and some local labor.
What? We're a member of NATO? Aw, Psssah, don't worry about that. You're our friends on our lands. We have this area suitable for a base. We're auctioning it off between you two and the bankrupt USSA. Opening bid is Y40 billion a year, use of local labor and vendors and, of course, taxable tenant improvements. What am I bid?
"That's not the way Tyler titled the intro to this piece!
"Do you think Europe should forgive your debt, check box 'Yes' or 'No'." "
Yes indeed Stained Glass, you are absolutely correct - and shame on the Tylers for writing such rot. I personally wouldn't have thought any of the Tylers capable/willing to make such a mistake.
Tylers: what gives? WTF???
it's a great big mess!!! let the creditors take a haircut and let governments stop spending more then their revenues.
You are the closest to the first principle.
The Greek trump card is NATO.
What is NATO membership worth? More than $100 billion going forward folks.
The idea of Greece (or any) long standing member nation leaving NATO due to finaincal problems drives a wedge into what does European Security mean anymore. Does it mean anything, espcially in light of the emering Polish froniter, Bulgaria, Baltics and Ukraine within the last year?
I'm going to pray that the same "democratic forces" that came out to play in the Scotish Independance election of 2014 do not come out in Greece.
If Greece and all its old ladies takes the money it might as well be called West Moldova. And guess what, next year will be the same debate with a new failed government.
Next year its Spain.
Then California.
I thought 'Yes' means you want a technocratic government headed up by a GS alum to fuck you sideways until you're COMLETELY broke, and 'No' means you want the EU to beat you into complete submission at which point a technocratic government headed up by a GS alum will be forced upon you and will then fuck you sideways until you're COMPLETELY broke.
Doesn't matter what they vote. The clue stick is coming.
Right. But you left out the part where the Greek elites who pillaged their own country bring their hard currency back to Greece from offshore accounts to buy what's left of the country at bargain prices.
The Greek elites have done a brilliant job of creating this Troika versus Greece canard to distract everyone from the original crime. The Spanish, Irish and Portuguese have at least held some of the guilty parties to account. The average Greek has my sympathy but a lot of their anger is mis-directed.
I think your anger is misdirected. This problem results from the Greek masses promising themselves generous public pensions, and then failing to produce the number of offspring required to deliver on those promises. This problem is not unique to Greece, only more acute. But every other developed nation is heading down the same path.
The elite and more visabily their messangers always distract and point out that it is those who worked for a pension who are the problem. They simply are ,as George Carlin, using that meme to take the money for themselves. The vast majority of the financial destruction of these countries has occured due to the elite, the central banks and the jmafia. I once looked up the average Greek pension and also the minimum wage in Greece and both were peanuts. Absolutely nothing "generous" about them.
Want to see them dance, including grandpa Buffet. Get a discussion going about flat taxes. You know, taxes without any loopholes. Real taxes that they have to pay, including capital gains and other income, without a hidden out that allows them to quietly avoid payment.
And make those same rules for corporations. It is complicated because it needs to be to hide how they avoid paying taxes like the worker does.
Learn more about Greek pensions. The "Pension" is and has been used forever to cover the needs of a myriad of social programs ie SSI, unemployment insurance, welfare, food stamps, disability... the list goes on. The fact is the Greek populace works just as many years as any other country.
Before you all begin howling about lazy Greeks hava a look at facts on tzhe ground. Sorry but true.
Who has been ripping off pensions and pensioners? Got any ideas? I'm sure you have: come on, give me a hand here and name the fucking "investment" banks and hedge funds.
I have not been following this side show in detail because so much is just BS and misdirection while (in my opinion) Tsipras and Yanis moved assets and collateral into the control of the foreign bankers.
So maybe I just do not understand and am wrong. I thought the vote to "forgive" the debt was just that. The debt gets wiped out and is declared odious, as there is now an organized push within Greece to make that ruling on the debt. But - from RT I have read that what Tsipras means is that only 30% will be cut from the debt with a three year no payment on the rest of the debt after which the Greeks are on the hook for everything.
If that is the case then Tsipras and Yanis are once again bankers wolves pretending to be kindly mothers to the Greek people. Just a 30% cut is a great deal at this point to the bankers and EU. AND watch out for the new collateral terms and also you can bet the EU has plans to remove more of the democartic ability of the Greek citizen to make further changes to the debt.
AND WHY ARE THE TYLERS PARTICIPATING in the deception? Why do the Tylers always make these two puppets appear to be rebels bucking the EU? (Over the last year of so you should have started to wonder about some things regarding the Tylers. But perhaps it is just throwing out whatever gets the reads, like H Post.)
The articles about potential "civil war" are concerning. Not because of it happening but because them be getting published to set the stage for false flag events to be orchestrated within Greece and then a clamp down. That clamp down would include further demonizig Golden Dawn and most likely the request for outside EU troops to enter "for the safety and security" of the Greek people.
<<But - from RT I have read that what Tsipras means is that only 30% will be cut from the debt with a three year no payment on the rest of the debt after which the Greeks are on the hook for everything.>>
You raise an interesting point. Do you have a link?
Here is the article: http://rt.com/business/271528-tsipras-greece-debt-cut/
The "grace period" the Tsipras calls far, which is 20 yrs, is just the period of time for Greece to pay up 100% of what is owed. From what I can determine. It is not 20 yrs of non payment. And even that I would expect to be bargined away.
There is a purpose to the deception. Both by Tsipras/Yanis and by outlets like even ZH. Trust me, the EU and the bankers are not being (or intended to be) deceived.
In all the movement, someone needs to watch the collateral and new collateral terms, and to watch out for the selling of public assets.
"In all the movement, someone needs to watch the collateral and new collateral terms, and to watch out for the selling of public assets. "
You are very close to the first principle.
(As for how and why one can transition away from virtue it is because the invisible hand that moves the world, currently, is corruption)
@Stumpy4516 I cannot agree with you on the question of Syriza's motives.
As for the Tylers writing misleading headlines see my above comments.
If I were to vote on Sunday, I'd check the OXI box but my fingers would be shaking just a little. I think Syriza/Tspiras/Varoufakis are on the right track:
This is why (here it is again):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNItYoJhgmk
Listen to what Varoufakis has to say.
At best Tsipras is a moron, at worst he is what you think he might be. Greeks are fucked. Either live quietly in any underground economy you can find or leave Greece.
What is comes down to on Sunday is no one is really sure. And that goes for the rest of the world too.
Vote "yes',and the Germans fuck you in the ass on Monday..Vote "no",and you get to fuck the Italians,and Spaniards in the ass on Tuesday..Either way,it's a "win-win" scenario for the Greeks..
its time for a ponzi-credit scheme. add a new country to the Eurozone and transfer Greeks debt to them. in the meantime you find a white knight to give that new country aid. i am thinking right now of Ukraine, and the white knight is the US. handing off a countries entire debt burden is of course totally unthinkable, so you create a small mini Eurozone with Greece and Ukraine and some other country and they share the debt burden. it would wor and a lot more effective than fed QE through foreign banks which is the previous solution
"We'll call it France, Germany, Great Britain, etc....
And thus Outer Slobovia was born....
The Duchy of Grand Fenwick.
Or maybe Unsustainabledebtistan.
Outer Slobovia (used to be San Bernardino), Inner Slobovia (Riverside). The Balkanization of the Inland Empire.
>>> ""Do you think Europe should forgive your debt, check box 'Yes' or 'No'."
That is not the issue at all.
Complete misrepresentation.
i can't help but think of the irony of the social censoring of the confederate flag because the people have been convinced(in error) that it is a symbol of slavery without realizing they are the neoslaves.
let's hope (at the risk of my portfolio) the greeks aren't as stupid.
<<it is a symbol of slavery without realizing they are the neoslaves.>>
Part of the cognitive dissonance required to remain slaves, is repudiation of any reminders of the truth. That flag - or for that matter, any flag - is an uncomfortable reminder of what it was to be a citizen. Distraction is the best they can hope for, since the alternative (either active or passive resistance) requires a lot of courage or a lot of smarts and preparation.
Their perspective is the same as that of George Fitzhugh:
"When the day’s labor is ended, [the mill worker] is free, but is overburdened with the cares of family and household, which makes his freedom an empty and delusive mockery…The Negro slave is free, too, when the labors of the day are over, and free in mind as well as body; for the master provides food, raiment, house, fuel and everything else necessary to the physical well-being of himself and his family." (Cannibals All!, 1857)
Until the people stop considering that 'daily bread' is more important than freedom, even if freedom involves a great deal of work, lack of security, unpredictability, and risk, their slavery shall continue. Maybe some will never stop being slaves.
There's nothing 'neo' about slavery. In its modern form it is the same as the ancient kind. Only thing that's changed is the language.
Yesterday I bought 50 Confederate Flags, 6' x 8'. I figure in about six months they're going to be damned near priceless.
Either way, hopefully intelligent Greeks will be working in their organic "Kitchen" gardens this weekend.
And the men will all head to the barber for their weekly back shave. Life will go on...
Do we know the text of the referendum question? Usually they're loaded in the direction TPTB want.
the real analysis is whether the greeks have the balls of the icelandics.
From the history texts I've read it's pretty conflicted.
WWII they showed balls of stainless steel and and beat Nazis to death with them.
Lately it seems they lost them in the crevices of a young boys ass.
Not that we're any better today in the US.
-- By now it should be clear to all that the only reason why Germany has been so steadfast in its negotiating stance with Greece is because it knows very well that if it concedes to a public debt reduction, then the rest of the PIIGS will come pouring in: first Italy, then Spain, then Portugal, then Ireland. --
AFAIK Italy have no debt with the institutions (ECM/EFSF/ etc.).
Real world you loan money, partner, front...whatever, and it goes south you suck it up, move on. You F'd up, they F'd up, the cow died, the ship sunk, she ran off with the pool boy.
But these are elites. Too big to F up. They got legions of doctoral economist and other code writing, model making fyks that couldn't change a tire or get a nob job in Amsterdam on a three day blackout if their lives depended on it.
All of them, EU, Greeks, Feds...all love this crisis suite. And their checks clear every two weeks.
Commies, EUers, Fascists..Napoleon...all think the sun won't shine, boys chase girls, some gear oil stinken machine shop.....everybody in the trenches of material progress...from cab drivers to chip fabrication machine builders are idiots. Children.
"Do you think your mortgage company should forgive your debt.
Vote yes (it is the right thing to do)
or
vote no (you want to keep paying those mean people who forced you to take out a loan and live in your home .. I mean your investment property).
"Do you think Europe should forgive your debt, check box 'Yes' or 'No'."
Regarding the "Oxi" and the other word, I'm not following the phrasing (the lifeblood of the CONfidence game). If you vote "Si" in this particular referendum, isn't that a rubber-stamp for the boot on the neck to continue? I'm confused.
Isn't it more like: "Do you think Europe should NOT forgive your debt, check box 'Yes' or 'No'." ?
I'm undertstanding as:
Yes, and all regular human-folk lose (again...shocker).
No, and the story continues (same outcome?).
I feel a certain schadenfreude about how stupid and inept the last several years and debt crises have made mrs. Merkel look. She should go down in history much in the same way president Clinton (the first) should be described: a useful idiot who had the good luck of being in office during a credit fueled boom. When this euro house of cards finally collapses, Germany will get their just deserts when they no longer can have cheap credit, a weak currency and low inflation.
Greeks had choice:
1.) to vote in right people
2.) not to fraud data to join EURO zone
3.) not to spend more than they can afford
4.) not to take loan they can not pay
5.) make a referendum to go back drachma
but they have not done nothing from it - instead they
1.) voted in idiots
2.) fraudet data to join EURO zone
3.) spended more money they can afford
4.) took loans they can not pay back
5.) cries about how their treated bad and that no-one wants to give them more money just for free to spend more money they can't afford
just grow up!
Which Greeks? Who loaned them money? Who accepted (encouraged, aided, abetted) the fraud? Who was responsible for performing due diligence? Who has been strip mining the country? Why is their GDP down 25% in the past 6 years? Did they have anything other than idiots to vote for (like here in the U.S.)?
When you answer those questions, I have some more for you.
Yeah, as the Government Ages, the Lawyers and Bankers come in to make the system less transparent, less restrictive, less black and white, more full of loopholes, and each can make a whole life career out of destroying the law one time.
- Simplify, Streamline, Standardize
- Term Limits for anyone personally responsible for funding a Lobbyist, any Lobbyist, any Judge, any Lawyer, and any Politician in Washington... say 6 year max as judge, lawyer, or politician... and Lobbyist must not have 12 years in US Congress or as Lawyer & Judge.
Why should I answer to your idiotic rhetorical questions?
Seriously dude. Americans do this everyday with free shit for giving away freedum. It is human nature. Many Europeans were fooled or lied to about EU/Euro. Pie in the sky, skittles and unicorns. Some voted against it and were made to vote again until they got it right.
Even conservatives like the Jonathan Pollard love the dual shit-izen PNAC/AIPAC eveangelicals over at Free Republic who should know better. They are busy bowing to Bibi. They think the Pentagram should fund every weapon system and that the Pentagram is our friend. Let's have a 2,000 ship navy.
Liberals are even worse where they would vote to have 1 billion illgeal aliens flood in if the media and other liberals said it was a good idea.
Ahh? most of that was Goldman. http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-greece-paid-goldman-300-million-to-help-it-hide-its-ballooning-debts-2010-2 https://twitter.com/maxkeiser/status/614893505098481664
Hold your bets folks!
The dice are rolling.
Are they loaded?
The sentence speaks itself:
"Do you think Europe should forgive your debt, check box 'Yes' or 'No'."
They are asking for what OTHERS should do.
What about YOU should do?
HERD MENTALITY =: FUCKED ANYWAY
WAKE UP FOR GOD SAKE!!!
heh - you're right.
Maybe a better question would be: "Are you willing to pay higher taxes, relinquish your pension, and shrink your government, in order to repay Greek debt to Europe?"
The problem can probably be solved to some degree if the Brussels amended some fucking treaties and for debt to be forgiven. But then there is politics. Ahh, the European politics.
Again, look at the numbers. Common Core math doesn't work within the theives stealing wealth under a crisis.
http://data.imf.org/?sk=7CB6619C-CF87-48DC-9443-2973E161ABEB
The lying bastards will be hanged. It doesn't matter about Obama's flooded criminals entries into United States of America.
Ask yourself why the treasury debt.
https://fiscal.treasury.gov/fsservices/gov/debtColl/dms/top/debt_top.htm
This Greek thing is such a bloody bore. ZH is obsessed.
I am tired of it. I mean who gives a fuck?
@ the Magus
Just to chear you up
Are the Greeks going to go for
The Pink Box
The Brown Box
I heard greek men prefer the Brown box Allegedly
Is this supposed to be allegory?
:)
PS My point is, do we really need 15 articles on Greece every freaking day? Would'nt one suffice?
@ the Magus
Yes
And I had to look up what allegory ment LOL
I agree......................to many articals......................but then the sands do seem to keep shifting politically..............especialy now the IMF has come out with hair cut needed....................kinda moves the goal posts................and I like the way the Greek PM has spun it to His advantage.
Less fucked or more fucked - how do you want it up the ass?!?
Greece is just the symptom of a system that is broken beyond repair. The vote outcome is inconsequential, because the wheels are already off the cart, and it's headed straight into the mountain of debt that's full of shit. (bankster promises and corrupt politicians)
Good luck on that vote Greece. Not that it will make anything better. Its been a very long time since those that govern Greece have done the right thing. But by standing up and screaming No with one voice is a very good start.
Show the world you are not falling for the lies. Real accountability might be in all of our not to distant future. That global stall could happen very soon. If we want it.
"Do you think Europe should forgive your debt, check box 'Yes' or 'No'." "No" means a lot of pain now and recovery later. "Yes" means less pain now but no hope of recovery ever. Choose wisely...
Looks backwards to me. 'Yes' will give a recovery later, like Iceland. No will be more enslavement.
Who doesn't comprehend that it was Dumb&Dumber, AKA, Geithner ( reminds me of the travelling salesman John Candy in that magnificent film 'Trains Planes and Automobiles' or Train-Crash Downed-Planes and Exploding-Cars)( ALL WRECKS ) and SideToolKick Bernanke who SAVED the WORLD in the aftermath of the last MELTDOWN.
Reminds me , in the sense that Geithner has NO HOME/LOYALTIES ( working for Fed Res ALL his LIFE and still is, no matter which temporary revolving door he exits ) and one of a handful of disciples TRUSTED to DO THE CABAL'S WORK, trusted to GUIDE the CLOWN Obama on the SECRET PUBLIC BAILOUTS.
Timmy G & Ben Bernanke took a Ride to Europe and then Japan to negotiate the bailouts and Greece is Owing and the Bookie wants his CASH. ECB/GERMANY/IMF take orders from Fed Res/Cabal.
How much higher would the sovereign GDPs mentioned here be if they and the rest of the world weren't exporting manufacturing to slave wage countries like China? And, of course, there's the astounding waste and buying off of initiative by their own socialized/communist economies. USA, take note.
Sort of a lose/lose bargain.
Just back from Lowes.... Looking at galvanized pipe.
Good Grief!!!! Imported from South Africa!
We will ship goods 9000 miles to keep from paying someone $15 p/Hr.
Asked one of the workers,,, he thought it pretty cool
Then he left telling me "Happy 4th of July"
Amerikans....
Home Depot, try to find a refrigerator 'Made in the USA'. Nada!
The Kitchen Aid Architect Series 2 are made in Greenville, OH by Whirlpool Corp. and are pieces of shit.
http://www.cnet.com/products/kitchenaid-architect-series-ii-kfis29pbms-r...
Kinda like the rusty frame on my '02 Tundra made in Toldeo, OH by Dana Corp.