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Greece, China, & Russia – A Plan B For Tsipras
If the Greeks were to vote ‘No’ what would happen next? Well no one can say. But here is a quick thought on what I hope the Greek government might have been exploring if they are excluded from the euro. It’s just food for thought nothing more.
They have to be prepared to have a currency that does not depend on Europe supplying Euros. So they will need another currency – hopefully their own. I think we can be sure no western company has been printing them. There are few such companies and there is, I think, no possibility that they would be able to keep secret a contract from Greece. But both Russia and China can print notes. So would it not have been prudent to ask Putin to print up plane loads of Drachma and be prepared to fly them in?
Who would back this currency? Greece is not Great Britain with a long established reasonably trusted currency backed by a big slice of global financial trade. So I do not think they could launch an orphan currency which the drachma would be if it did not have some relation to a major clearing or reserve currency.
For all Obama has, apparently, lobbied the EU to be more conciliatory towards Greece I am not sure he would leap at the chance to help Greece with its debt. He might of course. A chance to reenforce US power in that part of the world. But he already has power there so I doubt he would be willing to ‘pay’ much. Russia and China, however would gain much more by having Greece as a beach head in to the EU and, more importantly, into Nato.
Russia has already signed a large gas pipeline deal with Greece. The deal will make Greece the European terminal for the so-called TurkStream which would be a southern counterpart for the NordStream which runs under the Baltic and has its European terminal in Germany. This pipeline would bring Russian gas to Europe cutting out Ukraine. A nice end run around the Western puppet government/influence in Ukraine (you decide which one you prefer). It will also bring closer Russian ability to pipe gas from further east and from Iran. Which would also be an end run round the southern front of the Great Gas War being fought in Syria.
Earlier this year Russian also signed a deal with Cyprus to give Russian ships access to Cypriot ports.
So It would make sense to me that Russia might see advantage in helping Greece in the event of a ‘No’ vote. But I do not think Russia is in much of a position to help financially. Their help can be practical and trade in gas and their reward is military. Greece and Cyprus together could perhaps get themselves a chip in the big game by being the key to allowing Russia to project military power in to Nato.
Which raises the intriguing possibility that Russia might ask Greece is they could station some military hardware in Greece. Not something Greece would lightly say yes to. BUT if there was a ‘no’ vote and then Europe tried to get really vindictive or even started sabre rattling about ‘radical’ possibly ‘illegitimate’ leftist governments (AKA Syriza) might Syriza gain some advantage by letting it be known they might consider letting Russia dock missile carrying warships in their ports, or allow certain early warning systems on their territory? Or if the Great Gas War, which is surely the new Cold War, where Ukraine is the new Germany divided East and West (all we need now is a wall somewhere), heats up and the US does deploy missile systems there, would Russia think it advantageous to befriend Greece so they could ask an indebted Greek government to allow Russia to retaliate with missiles right in the heart of Europe?
I realise this is pure speculation but it’s fun and I think it’s good to think the unthinkable now and again. Our leaders regularly do the unthinkable. We should at least think it.
Anyway, I can see reasons why Russia would think it to their advantage to help Greece and have favours to call in.
Then there is China. China is too far away for military pretensions in the Med. Better to leave that to Russia. What China has is money. Just yesterday the director of the Quantitative Finance Department at China’s Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economics, Mr Fan Mingtao, said in an interview,
“I believe there are two ways to give Greece Chinese aid. First, within the framework of the international aid through EU countries. Second, China could aid Greece directly. Especially considering the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. China has this ability,”
I don’t know if this is pure kite flying but it’s interesting. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a China led rival to the US led World Bank. America was very against it and hugely put out when various European and other countries defied America and merrily joined it. Led by Britain which is a founder member. This is a major step in China’s policy of projecting power abroad but also a major step in its campaign to either have the Yuan as a new reserve currency or position a new currency in which China and the Yuan are constituent backers.
Again this is all speculation. But China is sick of America excluding it from governance of the World Bank and the IMF. Plus China will soon need – not just want – but need the Yuan to be at the very least a much more widely used settlement currency if not a full blown reserve currency. The reason I suggest this, is because of China’s ballooning domestic debt problem. Back in 2011 I wrote about the way regional governments were largely outside of direct and effective central control particularly their issuance of debt (Making the New Sub Prime – Backdoor to China) and how that debt was going bad (China – 10.7 trillion Yuan of debt going bad).
That analysis is, I think, now vindicated. That regional debt has now blown up and is on the point of taking many of China’s banks down with it. The central chinese government now has, I think, little choice but to backstop all that regional debt. The hope is that this will save their regional governments from defaulting and also bail out all the banks that are holding that debt and would be bankrupted by such a default. Essentially this is a colossal bank bail out much like they were obliged to do back in the 90′s and we did a decade later. I am not alone in thinking this is the dynamic at play. As reported in the Wall Street Journal and ZeroHedge,
“The debt swap is effectively a debt restructuring for banks,” said Zhu Haibin, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.’s chief China economist.
How big might this bail out get?
Because the central government is ultimately responsible for guaranteeing local government debt, and because yields on the new muni bonds are so close to those on treasurys, the newly issued local government bonds are really just treasury bonds, meaning that, in essence, the supply of Chinese government bonds is set to jump by CNY2 trillion in the coming months. If all of the local government debt ends up being refinanced, the end result will be the equivalent on CNY20 trillion in additional treasury supply.
What I foresee is that China’s new regional debt and bank bail out is forcing it in to what is essentially QE. The flow of Yuan is going to be vastly increased. A good idea would be to have lots of people ‘need’ these yuan and be keen to soak them up. That is what would happen if the Yuan becomes a new reserve currency or, failing that, if there is at least a greater use of the Yuan as a settlement currency for major international trades.
Which brings me to my speculation about Greece and the report quoted above about China helping Greece via the new AIIB. Might it not suit China, with its coming flood of new Yuan, to offer Greece a hand with a few Yuan. Greece might offer to conduct all its foreign trade in Yuan rather than dollars or Euros. Greece would benefit because it would not be beholden to America or Europe for a flow of their currencies. It could look to China instead. Russian would be happy with this because it has a settlement agreement with China. Any gas pipeline work could be financed in Yuan with chinese government backed Yuan loans. The AIIB could help Greece out with a loan to allow it to operate. Such a loan would not be blockable from Europe or America. Greece could default and still have operating money. China could spin it as almost humanitarian aid: The Chinese people reaching out to the desperate, impoverished but brave Greeks when the wicked capitalist Europeans would not.
Greece would survive, have new powerful friends, have bargaining chips that neither Europe nor America could ignore , China would have projected the use of the Yuan right in to Europe and Russia would have more than a toe-hold for military power right inside NATO.
If I was Tsipras or Varoufakis I would be on the phone right now.
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Troika deal vs. Russian deal...the bidding starts.
Europe is finished. The East is the future.
Europe is finished. US is finished-er.
The East is the NOW.
Like I said before. Russia and the US proxy gas war is whats causing the problems in Greece. They need greece and Turkey to allow the Iranian pipeline to traverse their countries and this is just chess.
If the US wins out with greece I'm betting a conflict between them and Turkey is just around the corner.
<<< <<< If I were Tsipras or Varoufakis I would be on the phone right now.>>>
They already have direct access to the embassies in Athens.
Uncle Sam plays his cards favorably for Greece, so far.
https://twitter.com/daviddpearce/status/617398406634434560 Thank you Mr. Pearce.
That new Russian nuclear Submarine base in the Adriatic would be a new tourist attraction......
Greek Currency Tuesday?
Yuan/Renmenbi.
Heh, heh, heh...
Stupid question:
WHY NOT PEG THE NEW DRACHMA TO THE EURO OR BETTER YET, THE DOLLAR?
Many other nations do just that:
http://www.investmentfrontier.com/2013/02/19/investors-list-countries-wi...
http://www.quora.com/How-many-nations-currencies-are-pegged-to-the-US-do...
Or declare Drachmas as only for use within Greece and worth one hour of labor?
More likely the CNY?
The USA allowing The Chinese or Russians to muscle in on Greece, yeah right.
I expect the vote to be yes by hook or crook, and a new, more compliant government will be installed
That's mostly for phone sex.
"If a deal was in the offing you wpuld see the Greek paper."
Greece needs to and always HAD needed to "default to Greece."
This is done by printing your own currency....which they need to have first.
As it is Greece has now defaulted to the IMF...never a good thing. China and Russia can't help with that...
Heh, betcha they had that call ...
East and West it's all going to fall.
Oh yeah, jump into that china market now...
..idiot !
greece must move to the yuan. and yes, this would also benefit china who wants their currency used as a reserve around the world. discounts could be offered in lieu of future deals concerning ports and pipelines. maybe in time, even produce and a renewed tourism.
everyone can keep pretending that greece is still in the EU and a part of NATO until the russo/china presence kills that notion.
Greece will be part of the BRICS national currency system by next week.
Currency swap. Drachma for Yuan.
dollar for yuan loaned to Greece in exchange for their partnership in silk road and AIIB
It should be plans A thru Z.
Huh? Why wouldn't Greece just take that set of printing presses in Athens that print Euros, swap out the plates for those new Drachma designs they've already shown us, and print. I stopped reading at the second paragraph because anyone who doesn't already know those new plates exist shouldn't be writing about this.
Either it is done already and the banknotes are stacked up in vaults or it takes weeks to do the physical printing.
I have my suspicions. I know there was at least one set of the "proposed" designs recently where people noticed that the pictures on the internet were photos of physical bills, not digital mock-ups. So there's at least been some physical test pressing happening. Either way, the answer to the question "So would it not have been prudent to ask Putin to print up plane loads of Drachma and be prepared to fly them in?" is obviously no. It would be more prudent to print them yourself if you've got the means, can keep better control over the process and secrecy level, and not involve a wild-card third party.
Birds of a feather and what not.
The main problem of Syriza (and their real weakness in negociation) being the fact they are truly, sincerely pro EU.
However, if ECB finally decide to kick them out of Euro, they will be left with no choice.
imho, they should have already pulled the plug from EURO weeks ago, as it was clear EU wanted nothing but a unconditional and complete surrender.
"Have it on good Greek source that Putin will not spend one bent ruble helping Greece. Lot of talk. St Petersburg trip by Tsipras was flop"
- Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (on Twitter)
not believable with the pipe going from Turkey to Greece
OBVIOUS PROPAGANDA
"To qualify tweet on Putin last night. He won't help Greece under current EMU set-up. Post-Grexit might be diff story, if EU brass fluffed it"
- Ambrose again (hadn't read that when I posted the first one)
That's more like it.
Putin is not going to make the same mistake he made when he loaned Ukraine and Yanukovych $3bil just before the coup.
China and Russia are waiting for the results of Sunday's vote before making any commitment.
For all we know there are rumors to that effect racing around Athens now.
Would not trust any thing that clown writes.
No this PLAN B will never work without Greece splintering into 4 pieces.
So nuclear holocaust it is!!
Europe has an ultra paranoid ruling class keeping the populace in fear through either propaganda or actual war. People are becoming more aware that the elite parasite really have no place in the 21st century if the world is to survive peacfully. The elite parasite is losing the grip of power and the struggle is going to be a long winding painful process for this world and it could mark the begining of the end or the start of something new.
Its ironic that Greece is about to vote for unsustainable debt and a life of slavery for their children or a painful reset. The choice seems obvious but fear and division is well and truly alive in atlantis.
I guess you don't live in Europe. Your opening sentence is more appropriate when applied to the US.
Tsipras was elected at the end of January 2015 and was in Moscow by the beginning of April 2 months later.
All that I've seen concerning him and Putin since has been way cordial and amiable.
The Greek government (Tsipras) picked SinglularLogic to count the vote, not Merkel or Junker.
Yes, all that happens in the world today happens under the aegis of and by the grace of Washington. If Greece does not leave the eurozone, "1984" is just a matter of time for the rest of us
Honestly, when you think about it, it would be nothing - NOTHING - for China to otherwise sell $100 billion of their UST for straight cash to otherwise "buy" Greece.
The Chinese have to know they have zero chance of being made whole on US debt long term, so why not simply cash in some chips rather than continue playing in someone else's casino and otherwise buy out Greece's debt from the IMF/ECB and forge Greece into a forward base on the threshold of Old Europe.
Certainly anyone with half a brain in China and HK can see the utility of setting up a trade base and offshore haven within their sphere and otherwise buy a piece of Europe.
Not a bad chess move to secure Africa either.
An interesting thought, except it's not in the script. Why would the IMF and the EU loan a basically bankrupt government billions knowing they would never be paid? Even a 10 yr old would ask that question.
UKRAINE
V - your comment made me think of this quote;
"Sometimes the first duty of intelligent men is the restatement of the obvious." George Orwell
Ukraine paid their collateral to IMF with blood.
The U.S. 'plan c' ...
US Preparing for Never Ending War
TND Guest Contributor: Leonid Savin
The new military strategy is a fundamental document of global nature along with the National Security Strategy and Cyber Security Strategy. The US believes that the preservation of economic status-quo in the world and dissemination of so called "universal values" meet the national security interests. "Since the last National Military Strategy was published in 2011, global disorder has significantly increased while some of our comparative military advantage has begun to erode", Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey wrote in his introduction to the strategy document. That’s why the need for a new document came to the fore. The strategy reads that "today, the probability of U.S. involvement in interstate war with a major power is assessed to be low but growing".
Fully story, click here:
http://thenewsdoctors.com/?p=477679
Drachma ---> Bond issuence ---> Bond Yield set based on Demand ---> Bond payments
This is how it works. The paper is uesd as the purchase agreement because people have faith that the payment in said currency will have value once the bond is paid.
The value of the currency depents on the faith in it. Is it back with gold? Silver? What types of debts does the issuer have? Are the debts payable?
These questions are asked when the bonds sell. That's why they are bought. It is the currency that determines the value of the payable debts.
The future is to the East for the Germany too. That's the direction Hitler went: to get the natural resources. Russia will need a lot of technolgy to prodress and Germany will need their good's market. Why Germany is so inflexible to the risk of breacking up Europe and, maybe, give Greece to Russia?
I'm more interested in what Tsipras and Syriza will do if the result is a Narrow No outcome.
Reshuffle. Syriza government but not led by Tsipras.
No chance in hell. Tsipras is by far the most popular person alive in Greece.
If they have a narrow 'NO' outcome it means someone hacked the Diebold system.
Greece has become the "grease ball" for the Eu and its allies. Either they deal with Greece on a more realistic level or they face a whole lot of unintended consequences. Watch their allies fall away as this gets nasty and mean. Nobody like uncertainty least of all business. Soon this is going to show on the radars and billion will evaporate as stock markets take a bath. The answer, one would have thought was obvious, stay at the table a negotiate. I would have locked them all in a room with no windows and no food and instructed then to make a deal but no the future for the Euro hangs in the arrogant, stinking rich hands of the Troika.
Greece becomes one country with two currencies, Euro (official) for foreign trade and tourism and taxes and Drachma for domestic use by pensioners and civil servants.
China does a huge currency swap - Drachmae for Yuan so Greece has Yuan - to spend and to support the Drachma. Pensioners and the army will be OK with receiving Drachmae that are pegged to the Yuan and freely exchangeable at market rates.
China spends its Drachmae on buying the port of Thessaloniki and other stuff.
And if there is a shortage of actual Drachmae banknotes then actual Yuan banknotes can be used in the meanwhile with the Drachma pegged to the Yuan at parity.
Drachmes have been printed. The following days will tell whether they disappear or get loaded into the ATMs.
Presumably only some of the ATMs if Greece becomes one country with two currencies.
They already have "crypto currencies" so apparently SOMEONE figured out what "Greece" would look like "post money"....
"Thus guaranteeing the deposits."
At least as far as "the number" is concerned.
Yes, your forcibly converted euro's into drachma will only be worth ten US dollars at "the new exchange rate" BUT!.....
You will still have 100,000....
Jesus fucking Christ this is beautiful the US tries to force Russia out of Ukraine where they have a highly strategic military port only to utterly fail and then watch them build one in Greece too.
Also Putin moved another chess piece. I believe, the Russians and Germans have recently signed a massive gas deal. This will expand the current northern pipeline supply to Germany. The Germans can on-sell Russian gas to the rest of Europe. The US has nothing to offer. LPG was just simply whistling in the wind.
Then, as "Icing on the Cake", CHN will join RUS in the Bailout of GRC.
In return, CHN and RUS will have major Port/Military Access in GRC.
GRexit NATO "AND" EUR.
TurkStream to EURozone secured through GRC.
TURexit NATO...
Beautiful...just fracking beautiful.
watching Nuland and Brzezinski soil themselves on the News, Priceless.
Rubbish. If Putin wants another ally in the eastern Mediterranean, he has plenty of other options.
Turkey has already agreed to host his pipeline. Israel is prosperous, has a large Russian community, takes a refreshingly rational approach to its Arab problem, and is slowly figuring out that Western elites are as anti-Semitic as ever. What does he need the Greeks for?
Russia, for better or worse, can't just print central bank confetti and expect it to be accepted outside Russia. If the Germans consider Greece a waste of Euro-confetti, you can bet Putin considers Greece a waste of oil and gold.
Greece is needed so the southern pipeline can transit from Turkey into Europe. From a geopolitical perspective Israel is a worthless asset. Your final point makes no sense in the context of what is a geopolitical chess game.
Good Goy. Defend G-Ds chosen people. Dont forget the 6 trillion.
Jesus christ. The western elites are as aniti-semitic as ever? The western elites ARE semitic!
Nice daydream! The Elite's would have Tsipras assassinated, oh and Greece is hopelessly enmeshed in NATO. Amusing thought though.
This is not your father's socialism
a no vote could be the boomerang that broke the eu
Probably, quite possible. Only question is at what point would China and/or Russia swoop in? Or would they wait for a better entry point...
OR.... perhaps they see a benefit of Greece going down and potentially causing further damage to their rivals.
Russia-China are simply NOT going to pass up the golden opportunity to make an incursion into the dollar-centric order so as to drive an important wedge between Europe and the dollar, and between American NATO and European NATO.
That wedge could be further exlpoited via Spain and Portugal, and there's just no way the rising eastern powers will pass on this. But they'll do it smart, with a strategic as well as a tactical plan.
This is a golden opportunity because it's a chance to advance their alternate financial and political world order, at tremendous potential cost to the U.S. and the dollar.
I'm moving to Japan. No jews or niggers there. Jews don't like Japan because there is only one ethnic group there so they can't divide and conquer like they do in usa where they use niggers to destroy white culture. Those dirty filthy little fucking jews......
"I'm moving to Japan. No jews or niggers there..."
This message brought to you by a lame attempt to distract and change the subject. TRY HARDER.
So your understanding of the western time line is totally based on tribalism ...
One race (aryan), one god (catholic/protestant), and kill all the others; let God choose his own.
You are no son of Enlightenment more a son of the dark ages of western intolerance.
Well if the West has to shit on that nonsense a second time round be sure you will find your comme-uppence of Secular retribution wherever you be.
If you watch these pictures of the negotiations with Merkel Dijsselbloem Tsirpas Varouflakis Juncker , they are always jovially smiling. It does not match their harsh public commentary.
I trust their body language, they are on great terms. Greece is a good excuse for another slush fund from the printing press and everyone but you and me is going to profit from it.
Is it not better to listen to the words from the people and make projections on this foundation? The Greek government has said they want to stay in the EURO which of course includes the membership to the EU Ponzi-scheme. Let us assume that is correct and the OXI-votes will prevail today. What happens than? Well, the ECB is obliged to ensure and guarantee the functioning of the Greek banking system, i.e. the ECB is contractually forced to fill all gaps at the Greek banks. Additional significant ELA transfer are likely required. This is additional money paid ultimately by the EU taxpayers. Greece remains incapable of paying it's creditors irrespective of the parties agreeing or not angreeing on any other "rescue package". The situation leaves not too many options: (A) The EU financial ministers accept that Greece can not pay it's debt and deal with an insolvent member state (B) Greece receives the funds necessary to service it's debts from the EU under a new "rescue package" (C) The EU member states decide to kick Greece out of the EU - this is purportedly not possible under the existing EU contracts (D) The ECB stops to support the Greek banking system - this would be purportedly a failure by the ECB to perform its obligations. Obviously the EU and the ECB are trapped with not much options left: They could either support Greece until eternity or step over their rules. A very uncomfortable outlook that as far as I know has not yet been discussed. The discussion is always about Greece breaking away but its leaders have categorically excluded this so far.
Yesterday I posted the piece below, having just read TD's piece above and then combining the two scenarios together it tends to be a lot more plausable and make even more sense than it did yesterday. You decide!
The one scenario which everyone has seemingly overlooked, which in my opinion has a high probability in the event of a yes or no vote in the upcoming referendum. By their own admission the Troika has stated that it will take several weeks to re-establish a workable fluid banking system, which now is in total collapse. Assuming that the population, according to all reports is more or less split down the middle on the yes-no vote, 50% of the population is going to be very pissed off and given the propensity of the Greek people to riot, all hell is about to break loose. Either way the vote goes Tsipras, Varoufakis are history.
When all hell breaks loose who is going to step up to the plate to restore law and order, none other than Greek Defense Minister Panos Kammenos. This is the Minister who in mid April of this year visited his counterpart in Russia andwww.zapaday.com/page/event/827101-0/Greek-Defense-Minister-Panos-Kammeno... and shortly before he left for that visit stated that Greece had a plan B if talks with the Troika failed to bear fruit. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/10/us-eurozone-greece-kammenos-id... It just so happens that the BRICS will be holding their 7th summit meeting on July 8 and 9 in Russia (Timing is everything in life) which would then install Greece as a member and just happens to coincide perfectly with the newly launched BRICS Development Bank.
This is why I believe that Panos Kammenos will step into the leadership void, go to the BRICS arrange financing aid for Greece, hold an emergency election, install a new new parliament that will default on all Greek debt and in turn restore the Drachma, ratify the BRICS Development Loan and watch the European Union implode.
All a coincidence maybe, but I somehow doubt it. One thing I have learned about the relationships between the major powers USA, Europe, China and Russia is that the former two seem to act impulsively with very little forethought as to the consequences of their actions, and as a result are consistently, engaged in damage control for the fuck up's they create. Whilst the latter two appear to always be two steps ahead. Which only leads me to the conclusion that never bring a checkers team to play chess with a couple of Grand Masters.
Either way it wont take long to find out if I am right or not!
Check or Checkmate?
Great analysis by captain obvious. Don't quit your day job.
This is so much like the 1930s. An oppressive European economic regime creating a climate for extremism and the rise of fascism.
What is the retirement age in China and Russia?
https://biblicisminstitute.wordpress.com/2015/03/17/the-truth-about-the-...
Plan C
-------
Greece is the birth place of Democracy
But I propose a democracy of finance - give all money to people
1. Print your own currency & nationalize the banks
2. Give all that money directly to people's accounts.
Say 100 billion printed in a year. Let these equally go to all people's accounts.
3. The money is still in banks , so banks will use this money to lend to businesses
4. The businesses will earn profit & give to bank
5. The bank will pay part of it to people as return
6. People pay tax to govt.
7. The cycle goes on