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The "Nightmare Of The Euro-Architects" Is Coming True: JPM Now Sees Grexit, Eurogroup "Split In Coming Days"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Perhaps the best summary - or epitaph, some would say - of the shocking events that took place in Greece this afternoon, and the resultant falling dominoes that are about to be unleashed, was given by Slovakia's finance minister Peter Kazimir, who summarized events as follows:

He followed it up with a Dylan Thomas quote:

We assume the next lines goes as follows:

"Rage, rage against the dying of the "irreversible" currency"

And while we laid out what Deutsche Bank's 4 possible scenarios are in the case of the now confirmed "No" vote, here is JPM's Malcom Barr with the bank's latest take on Greece which is that at this point, a Grexit is JPM's "base case"... and it only
goes downhill from there.

After the "big no", euro exit is our base case

  • After the “big no” it is now a race between two forces: political pressure for a deal, versus the impact of banking dysfunction within Greece
  • Although the situation is fluid, at this point Greek exit from the euro appears more likely than not

Early indications of the official result suggest the result is a “No” by a comfortable margin. What happens next?

First, it will be important to see the tone of the immediate political responses both within Greece and outside. We would expect the tone to be somewhat more conciliatory on both sides. Hollande and Merkel are to meet tomorrow night to discuss the issue, and as we understand it, the Eurogroup is scheduled to meet on Tuesday. We expect that a split is likely to emerge in the coming daysThe Commission and France (and possibly others) will argue that negotiations should resume immediately with an aim of finding agreement. Others will find it more difficult to return to negotiations with a newly emboldened Tsipras in short order.

In the German case, for example, the Bundestag has to be consulted before Mr Schauble can enter into discussions about a new program for Greece (as requested on 30th June). However, the Bundestag has just broken for summer recess, so any such vote will require a recall. We have seen reports that talks at a technical level between Greece and the creditors may restart tomorrow (Monday), but we can imagine that the Bundestag will express its displeasure if it feels those discussions are in-progress without their express consent.

Second, there are reports of an emergency meeting between the ECB, Bank of Greece and Finance Ministry tonight, and at the latest the ECB will likely have to take a decision about ELA support tomorrow (if not tonight). Our base case is that the ELA total will simply be rolled on a day-to-day basis for now. It is extremely difficult for the ECB to justify increasing the region's exposure to Greece at this point. That effectively means that the Greek banks are likely to run increasingly short of cash, and the acceptability of electronic forms of payments will diminish rapidly.

The Bank of Greece and Finance Ministry has a joint committee working to prioritize payments out of Greece for essential imports. There are reports, however, that suggest the logistical problems arising from these procedures are biting. Importers are facing delays in seeing their requests to make purchases processed. And Greek exporters are finding it hard to get payment in euros from those they sell to, as their customers do not want to hold any euro balances within the Greek banking system. It is difficult to get a sense of the scale of these issues at this point. But our best guess is that these issues will multiply in the days ahead.

This suggests that what we see next will be a race between two forces: political pressure to move toward an agreement despite resistance from a number of northern European parliaments, versus the increasingly unpleasant implications of a dysfunctional banking system on the other. This latter force is unpredictable: it may manifest itself in pressure on the government to stand down, or it may generate a more unified “siege mentality” within Greece. The July 20th payment of €3.5bn to the ECB as Greek bonds mature creates one possibly fixed point as we look forward, but our sense is that could be dealt with via a number of mechanisms if political talks are progressing (transfer of SMP profits, short-term ESM loan, for example).

Our base case is that the pressures coming from a dysfunctional banking system in Greece will shorten the time horizon to negotiate a deal to a handful of weeks. As that pressure builds, there is likely to be a temptation to call a referendum in Greece on euro membership, and for the state to begin issuing I-O-Us or similar and giving these some status as legal tender. To the extent that pensioners and public sector employees find themselves being paid with such instruments, it takes the banks further away from solvency (they have liabilities in euros, but will have loans to individuals being paid or receiving “i-o-u” s which will be worth a lot less). Meanwhile, we expect at least some countries in the rest of the region (not least Germany) will not hurry over the design of a new program, and will find it difficult to get parliamentary assent for any such program.  

This is a path that suggests to us that there is now a high likelihood of Greek exit from the euro, and possibly under chaotic circumstances. Perhaps the rest of the region will agree to a reasonably quick deal, or the ECB will raise ELA enough to retain minimal viability in the payments system. Perhaps the pressures of dysfunctional banks will force Mr Tsipras to stand down, and a deal is subsequently made. But for now, we would view a Greek exit from the euro as more likely than not.

 

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Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:49 | 6273521 TahoeBilly2012
TahoeBilly2012's picture

0% debt to GDP!!! bwwahahaha

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:51 | 6273535 Veriton
Veriton's picture

Next stop: the BRICS Summit this Wednesday -

Greece and the BRICS Summit
Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:54 | 6273555 JungleCat
JungleCat's picture

The euro is a currency union - you are not allowed to leave a union, as the US Civil War showed.

Logically, we must therefore have a war to keep Greece in the union and properly subjugated.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:58 | 6273586 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

"... you are not allowed to leave a union, ..."

Yep, SEIU totally agrees.  Why, ask any of the enslaved union folk in Wisconsin after Scott Walker freed them.

You go fight the war of EuroZone Agression.  I have my pack off for now.

- Ned

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:02 | 6273604 wiser
wiser's picture

Germany should be bombed every twenty years or less... no reason why... they know it -
Winston Churchill

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:03 | 6273621 Gaius Frakkin' ...
Gaius Frakkin' Baltar's picture

Hopefully Grexit happens, but now I'm waiting for Texit.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:18 | 6273688 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

This could get out of control.  

US has 3 weeks to stage a color revolution, but even then, the damage done economically to Greece the past 2 weeks at this point is going to be irreconcilable with the political determination to end Greece's current fiscal situation.  

Depending on how people react to the failed Greek banking system, things might start getting out of control in Greece and quickly.  

Tourism this year is likely to be decimated. Expect lots of Greek economic refugees in the coming future to a country near you.  

 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:29 | 6273752 negative rates
negative rates's picture

They have been recieving more refugees recently from the choas we produced in Lybia, producers, collectors, we are the absolute best, at fookin things up. 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:34 | 6273783 Captain Debtcrash
Captain Debtcrash's picture

We always knew this was coming, unpayable debts will not be paid.  The question now is with the rest of the PIIGS.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 18:16 | 6273975 Pinto Currency
Pinto Currency's picture

 

 

The EU and N.Amer. is swamped with upayable debt.

After decades of rigging interest rates and gold, that is the issue.

Thanks to the BIS, the BoE esp.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 18:25 | 6274018 tc06rtw
tc06rtw's picture

 
… and RIGHT in the middle of their Summer Hols !

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 19:39 | 6274253 Mr. Ed
Mr. Ed's picture

Everyone here long pm's when the "base case: Grexit" story hit? I bet JPMorgan was.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:38 | 6273796 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Hey guys, we're talking about Greece here.  With an exit from the euro Greece will quickly become a socialist workers paradise like Venezuela. You'll see another 500,000 productive people emigrate to the rest of Europe and Greece will experience 40% inflation, strikes, shortages, and riots.  These people will not replace EuroSocialism with Greek free enterprise. 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:43 | 6273818 HenryHall
HenryHall's picture

Big difference - Venezuela is not going to the BRICS summit on Wednesday.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 18:04 | 6273922 tbd108
tbd108's picture

Greece has port facilities and passage ways to the Black Sea. They are also at the connecting end to Russian gas coming in from Turkey. All poor Venezuela has is poor people ... however they have plenty of those.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 18:26 | 6274024 Luc X. Ifer
Luc X. Ifer's picture

go back to geography class dude or learn to google ...

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 19:33 | 6274285 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

are you mad, sir?

All poor Venezuela has is poor people .


Oil reserves in millions of barrels

1 Venezuela..........297,740

2 Saudi Arabia......268,350

3 Canada..............175,200

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves

If you need tutoring in crude oil, get in touch  :o)

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 19:59 | 6274379 petkovplamen
petkovplamen's picture

with your ignorant comment about Venezuela shows what an uninformed know nothing you really are. Venetzuela has lots and lots of gas and oil. Why do you think USA is tryign to crush them, for the poor people? 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 18:27 | 6274032 Don Diego
Don Diego's picture

I hope "they" are not setting up Europeans for the nuclear option: United States of Europe. It does not look like but after all these years "they" are blowing up the euro too easily. Hopefully this will not happen but you never know with "they".

Mon, 07/06/2015 - 05:32 | 6275413 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Why would the US need to foment a color revolution in Greece?  

From a purely banking perspective, a Grexit is a Euro-positive development, as the dead weight is cast off, and the global game now is competitive devaluation, while claiming to be for a strong currency.  If anyone is going to deploy snipers on Syntagma Square, Führer Ferkel has exporters to defend, as Mario can defend DB with his printing press to some extent...

Mon, 07/06/2015 - 05:55 | 6275429 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Grexit IPO.

Let the entramanuers decide!

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:26 | 6273737 Eirik Magnus Larssen
Eirik Magnus Larssen's picture

Texit?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:41 | 6273812 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

One of many movements for the state of Texas to secede from US.

http://www.texassecede.com/

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:47 | 6273847 Fukushima Fricassee
Fukushima Fricassee's picture

Floridexit

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:49 | 6273856 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Goforit.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 19:32 | 6274279 NoDecaf
NoDecaf's picture

anyexit?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 22:45 | 6274922 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Flex-it

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 18:40 | 6274087 BI2
BI2's picture

Germany is wagged by America which is wagged by ....

https://biblicisminstitute.wordpress.com/2015/06/25/warmongering-vs-econ...

Mon, 07/06/2015 - 04:24 | 6275372 Ofelas
Ofelas's picture

the same Winston C who let 4 million Indians starve to death while exporting food to GB, or the same person who threw gas on Arabs between the wars

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:06 | 6273634 JungleCat
JungleCat's picture

Ned, why are you (and your children) not willing to die in a war to secure God-given bankster rights?

This to say: my initial post was sarc.

 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 19:08 | 6274186 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

No need to go to war.  Banksters win with the TPP

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:32 | 6273768 LouRukeyser
LouRukeyser's picture

"Logically, we must therefore have a war to keep Greece in the union and properly subjugated."

Just finished "the Real Lincoln."  Must read.  It's not what i was taught in elementary school!

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:40 | 6273807 class of 68
class of 68's picture

Tom Dilorenzo, always one of my favorites,

good choice.

 

contrast this with the O[reilly]  trash heap.

 

rwz

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 19:20 | 6274242 LouRukeyser
LouRukeyser's picture

You know you're in for a good read when the author weaves in pertinent thoughts by Mises, Hayek, Rothbard and my hero, HL Mencken...

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 19:35 | 6274294 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

O'reilly loves him some tyrant..

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:57 | 6273892 franzpick
franzpick's picture

Victorious Nuland, Jane McCain, Leslie Graham, Valerie Jarrett and GoBomb'em will be thrilled.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:58 | 6273583 Mark Urbo
Mark Urbo's picture

Can't believe Drudge has not linked to Zero Hedge ?

Tyler has been way out front on the coverage of real info...

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:08 | 6273649 chunga
chunga's picture

I have a bad habit of checking drudge, but I only click it to see what's not there.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:25 | 6273730 Veriton
Veriton's picture

BTW, let's not forget that Tsipras met with the head of the new BRICS Bank in Russia last month -

Guess who’s running the new BRICS Bank

And watch now for Paul Craig Roberts to release an article about how Greek democracy has just dealt a death blow to the "American Empire" -

Propaganda vs. Reality: Examining globalist whackadoo Paul Craig Roberts’ dialectic nonsense
Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:55 | 6273560 Mr.Sono
Mr.Sono's picture

could Greek bonds default cause collapse in us bonds. After all we are all interconnected

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:58 | 6273589 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

you never know

 

it may cause a $5 up day in gold.

 

But hey, the Seppo lackeys are going to have a meeting. Frog and kraut

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:26 | 6273733 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

Spitz you keep forgetting the zero behind that five!

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:32 | 6273769 FlacoGee
FlacoGee's picture

And the minus in front.

 

 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:36 | 6273789 negative rates
negative rates's picture

You keep on forgetting about paper manipulators.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 18:48 | 6274107 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Gold is up $8...And Oil is down $1.95...at the time of posting.

 

Collapse Douche Bunk, collapse.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:17 | 6273682 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

well, in a free market, a collapse in greek bonds and GrExit could easily cause a run on periphery debt, ie Portugal, Spain, Italy mainly. This, in turn, could freeze up the market for government bonds, or at the very least, make it substantially more expensive for the countries in question to raise funds.

In this process, we'd see margin calls, and medium sized companies would be caught out on the wrong side of the fence, and - essentially - go bankrupt due to these bad calls.

Once we see Greece, and a number of medium-sized banks, they in turn could cause an even bigger freeze on the lending market, and larger banks and countries would suddenly be in serious trouble. Portugal might default.

And once we see not just Greece, but also Portugal, and the banking systems in default, this could very conceivably cause the collapse of Spain and Italy, which in turn through contagion would take down France, Germany, England - and although the US could potentially even take the hit of England's collapse, they sure as hell couldn't take the collapse of the entire European continent.

BUT, we don't live in a free market. We live in an intervention zone, where the central banks pick winners and losers. And they will print to oblivion to let their friends off the hook before that day arrives.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:33 | 6273775 OzFan
OzFan's picture

Nice summary.

Let the fckas print  I say, they only dig their graves deeper....dumb fcks think finny money will save them.....serfs will come looking for them to hang 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:38 | 6273799 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Think closer to home, like puerto rico tax free bonds which can't be paid.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:51 | 6273873 RiverRoad
RiverRoad's picture

Like Puerto Rico isn't enough, now were getting in bed with Cuba too.

Mon, 07/06/2015 - 06:04 | 6275435 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

I know, we can have the individual country and their Euros differentiated based on the finances of that country.

 

It would be, you know, like individual currencies.....  Euros like before there were Euros....

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:57 | 6273564 Fred Garvin
Fred Garvin's picture

Sorry Angela, the money Greece owed you was just like your virginity, one prick (Tspiras) and it was all gone!

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 18:08 | 6273938 r3phl0x
r3phl0x's picture

At least she finally got laid.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:05 | 6273631 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Do we have a credit event NOW?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 18:09 | 6273944 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

The Big Short would appear to be European equities.

"The money might not be good...how could the dividend be safe?"
We shall see shortly...

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 18:12 | 6273963 leftcoastfool
leftcoastfool's picture

Nein, Nein, Nein!!!

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 20:50 | 6274523 TheAntiProgressive
TheAntiProgressive's picture

So if the "debt" is now worthless, then who have to be writing down the principle?  How they be looking right about now?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:50 | 6273524 knukles
knukles's picture

All of a sudden the biggies (DB v JPM, etc.,) seem to be starting to hammer one another's positions.
Business as normal on the Big Wheel of Fortune.
Screw your buddy and skullfuck your partner ....  It's Bonus Time at the TBTF's!

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:51 | 6273536 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

yeah and they've just got a whiff of blood.....wait'll they start eatin' each other and really work up some churn

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:59 | 6273574 knukles
knukles's picture

BTW, didn't just last week the Greeks petition to stay in the EU and some EU big wigs said that they should stay?
So, where's the new fear porn coming from?
The BEST deal for Greece is to default, restructure and stay in the EU to enjoy the access to their markets, drop the Euro and reissue the Drachma (or some such), continue to engage Russia, China and The AIIB, etc.

Beware of the Banks bearing BS stories disguised as Greek gifts to get you to churn that account.
Gonna be some sad hedgies today.  Many had bet on Greece staying with the DEBT paln and so were long the debt, loans, etc.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:18 | 6273686 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

that bet will cost them dearly but nothing like the door closing here will......that is if they're still even in the game when that day comes

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 18:00 | 6273911 August
August's picture

More than ever, the Thouand-Year Currency Union is at risk.

It's actually pretty funny, in the usual sick, human way, when great leaders succeed in producing one more of their irreversible, indissoluble, perpetual conceits.

I'm not counting the days, but it would be indeed be pleasant to see the "Eurpean Union" in History's commodious dustbin... to be followed by the United State of America.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:56 | 6273573 Escapedgoat
Escapedgoat's picture

Could you  you more precise Knucles?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:02 | 6273610 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

Nothing like a little friendly cannibalism to show how much you care.....

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:49 | 6273527 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I love daytime soap operas.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:59 | 6273590 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

I love fear PrOn

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:41 | 6273810 negative rates
negative rates's picture

I like how they use a month to repete some 3 year old scenes and nobody even takes notice.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:51 | 6273537 Dragon HAwk
Dragon HAwk's picture

Good thing the Fed hasn't given any US taxpayer Money to the Euro...

  it would be funny if they had to do a tiny little bit of explaining

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:54 | 6273553 db51
db51's picture

What on earth makes you think they didn't?   But you'll never know the truth....it will be papered over.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:00 | 6273600 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Go back to the "disbursements" in '08--lotsa' money going to U.S. "subsidiaries" of European banks.  Santander ...

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:03 | 6273620 knukles
knukles's picture

What on earth makes you think they'll explain anything?
Kinda like the EU ministers wouldn't know what to say ...

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:44 | 6273829 GCT
GCT's picture

knuckles look for thre GARP entry incoming from the FED!

Mon, 07/06/2015 - 06:08 | 6275439 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Belgium will never talk....

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:51 | 6273538 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Let's see now how many people say this is contained?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 18:20 | 6273992 Anglo Hondo
Anglo Hondo's picture

This is contained.   OK?

 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 19:15 | 6274212 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

You are full of shit...

 

We want to know who is full of shit.

 

Even your bullshit is not contained as it spews from your keyboard.

 

Understand?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:51 | 6273539 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

The Greeks have given out I scream sunday(s) all round to the bankers today. Heh.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:52 | 6273540 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

No worries...this will all be contained within Greece. Just like subprime back in 2008...oh wait!

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:52 | 6273541 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

So Jamie, since you are so smart/rich/same damn thing according to you...,

what are you going to do about the boat load of derivatives/TNT you're sitting on?

 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:07 | 6273594 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

"Jamie, what do all of those fuses around you lead to? Here, let me help you" as he hurls a couple of Molotov cocktails at Dimon,,,

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:01 | 6273602 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Kill the Greek people" apparently...

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:08 | 6273651 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

"So Jamie, since you are so smart/rich/same damn thing according to you...,

what are you going to do about the boat load of derivatives/TNT you're sitting on?"

 

You ever see the movie Jaws at the end when the shark swallowed the entire tank of CO2 and all it took was a tiny bullet to blow the shark into a million tiny pieces?

It's like that.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 21:18 | 6274622 Element
Element's picture

 

 

So Jamie, since you are so smart/rich/same damn thing according to you...,

what are you going to do about the boat load of derivatives/TNT you're sitting on?

Here's a hint:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MVplfdNC6E

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:53 | 6273548 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/greek-debt-crisis-how-goldman-sachs-helped-greece-to-mask-its-true-debt-a-676634.html "Greek Debt Crisis: How Goldman Sachs Helped Greece to Mask its True Debt"

So maybe goldman is unwittingly doing "God's Work" afterall.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:54 | 6273550 no1wonder
no1wonder's picture

American debt $ 18 trillion

German debt € 2 trillion

British debt £ 1.5 trillion

French debt € 2.5 trillion

.

Greek debt € 317 billion ....

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:22 | 6273712 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

no1: CONGRATULATIONS!!!

you sir/madame/honorable thing have accumulated a reddie for stating (with more or less precision, but certain ranking accuracy) the current situation.  That's a fact.  (translating for the reddie-crowd: Thaz fax)

One posits that you have attracted your own, personal, always with you, reddie-generator.  Truth be damned, your reddie-generator will always want to get closer to you.  You will never know what it is--certainly it knows not what it does.

With full understanding that this is more than a micro-aggression, why it might rise to the heights of an actual hate-crime, I welcome you to the guild of reddie-accumulators for no particular reason.  In fact, reason has the least of things to do with their ability to manufacture an infinite supply of reddies.

- Ned

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:40 | 6273803 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Hmm, I like it.  A red arrow is a hate crime.

Throw the red arrow fuckers into prison for life! 

Next up, hate thought.

 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:28 | 6273747 bid the soldier...
bid the soldiers shoot's picture

Bid the soldiers' debt  $00.00

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:54 | 6273554 Arturo
Arturo's picture

What's the difference OXI makes? They will resume negotiations and they will kick the can for 2 more years.

Why close the topic when the next elected politician can?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:05 | 6273624 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

The debts will be nonperforming and probably junk status their finances until Jubilee or Bankruptcy.  Until then no one makes any payments.

There won't be any way to borrow and run retail businesses, so things will get very bad.  Bridging over quickly will be the best solution, on the other side of bankrupt.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:08 | 6273652 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Exactly.  The cash crunch will drive everything now.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 21:15 | 6274602 Element
Element's picture

Just been watching the celebration of the victory over austerity ... hmmm ... we'll see ... this is certainly going to get interesting ... sacred cows to the slaughter ... necessity mother of invention ... veg garden in every home once more ... horses become more worthwhile than a junkfood Findus meat pie ... regardless of the adjustments coming ... I sort of which I was Greek right now.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:55 | 6273565 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

The original Euro-Architects are in their 90's.

The sooner they die off, the better things will get.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 18:06 | 6273932 Umh
Umh's picture

The young and indoctrinated are the problem. Some old guy on a beach trying to see the girls isn't much of a threat to anyone, not even the girls. Well, DSK is still hunting down defenseless maids and brazen whores....

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:56 | 6273572 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

So, Fortress Paper limit up in pre-trading?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:08 | 6273576 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

Kažimír, Kažimír, what a stupid and naive guy you are!

A regional politician with ambitions far exceeding his capabilities. Well.., perhaps not, when compared to the 'professionals' like Juncker, Barrosso or Rompuy.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:58 | 6273580 q99x2
q99x2's picture

They should begin to move to an open source software financial and political system at this point although they may not be able to do that completely unless they have nukes and I don't know if Greece has nukes.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:04 | 6273628 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Everything written above will come to pass I think and may indeed "already be programmed into a computer."

Talk about "Rise of the Machines...

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:07 | 6273641 wendigo
wendigo's picture

Greece is not a nuclear armed nation. The nations that are: USA, UK, France, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. Saudi Arabia could acquire a nuke tomorrow from Pakistan, and Japan could build them without any difficulty. 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:23 | 6273719 delacroix
delacroix's picture

fukushima was japans weapons facility

Mon, 07/06/2015 - 06:12 | 6275444 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Good Point, Greece could threaten them with a cup of US West Coast sea water.....

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:57 | 6273581 adjudged
adjudged's picture

Hey, if Greece tries to leave, the EU should take a page from Lincoln's book and send in the troops to devastate their country. Then they can institute martial law and outlaw the Greek flag. 

Yup! Works every time.

 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:10 | 6273655 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

You could argue that the reason why the "United States of America" had it's "Civil War" was because it was still possible for the North to win at that time...

Obviously "Europe" will not be invading Greece ala World War II...

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:57 | 6273582 realWhiteNight123129
realWhiteNight123129's picture

A bit of Sirtaki, a bit of ouzo and a nice smile to VAROUFAKIS, he killed the Minautor beast.

The Theseus of the XXIst century. 

A bit of SIRTAKI to celebrate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpOAnWEyzt8

 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 19:06 | 6274182 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

He had better not deal with it and put a damned stake through the heart of that monster.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:58 | 6273584 Lea
Lea's picture

There is NO provision in the EU treaties to push a country out of the eurozone. Any move in that direction would be illegal.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:19 | 6273692 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

Yes.  If necessary a very messy exit.  What happens next...tomorrow ?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:00 | 6273596 wiser
wiser's picture

Germany should be bombed every twenty years or less... no reason why... they know it

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:00 | 6273599 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

I sense something wonderful has happened. Absolutely wonderful.

It's as if a thousand banksters cried out...and were suddenly silenced.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:45 | 6273833 silvermail
silvermail's picture

It's as if a thousand banksters cried out...and were suddenly silenced... from severe anal pain...

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:46 | 6273841 hot sauce technician
hot sauce technician's picture

You think they're gonna go down without a fight?...it's about to get bloody, and I only hope figuratively.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:51 | 6273875 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

You bet they'll fight.

 

You ever see any of the Harry Potter movies where they destroy a horcrux?

It's like that.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 19:20 | 6274236 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

It will devolve into a Hot War. War is the result of failed negotiations.

 

The Tree of Liberty is watered by that from the blood spilled by patriots.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:00 | 6273601 surfersd
surfersd's picture

I bet if the FED had to show the collateral that was posted by the European banks we might see that the taxpayers do own a bunch of Greek debt.

 

 

Mon, 07/06/2015 - 06:15 | 6275452 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

If something can be so easily created, does it have any value?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:01 | 6273605 Lostinfortwalton
Lostinfortwalton's picture

The Greek Chorus has sung, a little more powerfully than any fat lady ever could.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:11 | 6273658 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Just gargling before the main act, Credit Frezee II.

Pity the margin clerks in the CDS markets tomorrow.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 19:32 | 6274257 Tall Tom
Tall Tom's picture

Credit Freeze II, the Sequel.

 

Premiering in September in a Theater near you, where every night is Audience Participation Night. We just cannot do it without you, the audience. You are so very important to us all.

 

It brings this Frank Zappa tune to mind...

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mf1nO5JMZkQ

 

I am somewhat sentimental after all.

 

 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:03 | 6273619 tailgunner
tailgunner's picture

I wish to throw some fuel on the fire.  From my reading for the last 10 years, or so, colatteral is very scarce.  No one has ventured into this as far as I have seen.  So who wants to bet a whole megabunch that the colleratal out there is all hypothacated 5, 10, 100 times.  So when one goes broke they all get to go broke.  Banks, mortgage lenders, and a ton of evey financial paper there is.  Zoop, it is all lost, and Corzined.  Maybe . . .

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:17 | 6273684 Lostinfortwalton
Lostinfortwalton's picture

What about little Jamie Dimond? Say it isnt so!

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 19:12 | 6273774 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

With just the derivatives that Douche bank is holding would be enough to collapse the entire EU and that just one part of the paper disaster sitting on everyones books. They are riding the tiger with no idea on how to get off......

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:04 | 6273623 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

S l o . . . . . WHO?

Bunch of PIKERS these EU Spokescritters!

If there's any doubt about who Greece's FRIENDS really are then they now know,

FUCK THE EU.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:04 | 6273625 RealityCheque
RealityCheque's picture

They wont leave. They'll default inside the EZ and have germany pay for it. Which has been the Greek plan all along.

Why can't these talking heads understand one simple thing: no country can be forced to leave, there is no legal mechanism for throwing a nation out. They have to go voluntarily, which is something that nobody in Greek politics has suggested they want to do. And even if they did, it would take 18-24 months to get the wheels turned (legally speaking) to make it happen, all the while the EZ would burn.

Greece are playing a dangerous game, but they are playing it very well so far.

Mon, 07/06/2015 - 06:17 | 6275458 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Game theory jockey, goes to level two.....

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:04 | 6273626 Joe A
Joe A's picture

"The nightmare of the 'euro-architects' that a country could leave the club seems like a realistic scenario after Greece voted No today."

What a bullshit! The Euro was designed by politicians, not by economists. Economists would never have agreed to it. The politicians had in mind that if a country would get into trouble then they would not let that crisis go to waste and forge an even more political, financial and economical union. But they had not taken a crisis like the one of 2007/8 into account. It are the EU politicians in Brussels and their financial cousins in Frankfurt that in their blind ambition and their arrogant self elevated importance killed the European dream.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:41 | 6273814 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

"Economists would never have agreed to it."

Friedman didn't agree, although he did say it wouldn't last 10 years, so, skoshi' he was wrong on that.

- Ned

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:07 | 6273632 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

I want to see you smile again 
the day the banks collapse
zee hordes of vigilantees
the day the banks collapse
on us 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:06 | 6273635 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

ZH on fire on Twitter. This just in:

http://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/617800652593463296

 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:38 | 6273793 ANestIOS
ANestIOS's picture

Very good! (independence w/e must of been fun for - at least - one of the Tylers)

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:07 | 6273639 ANestIOS
ANestIOS's picture

this signals a new generation of politicians coming into the EU mainstream and not the end of the EU nor the end of the euro and the eurozone... only the changing of the guard. Europe's democratic heritage and enlightenment based ideals will prevail.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:07 | 6273640 mcbond
mcbond's picture

#Greece

One major Greek bank is near collapse

 

The IMF published a scathing analysis on Friday which practically stated that Greece can’t be saved from bankruptcy.

Real Live Ticker:

https://tersee.com/#!q=greece&t=text

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:07 | 6273642 B2u
B2u's picture

next will be Spain, Portugal and Italy....

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:07 | 6273643 BigRedRider
BigRedRider's picture

OT: After paying off my mortgage note in May, 2015, my FICO score dropped immediately 45 points.  Reason: There is no indication of loan payment being made for June."

 

Too fucking funny.  I know there's no loan payment made for June.  I paid it off in May.  Keeping a high FICO means you have to constantly be making loans and paying them off faithfully.  Once you pay off your IOUs and not make any more loans, the creditors trash your credit worthiness.  Either you pay up or your name is mud.  FU banker shysters.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:19 | 6273691 Joe A
Joe A's picture

How dare you pay off your debt?! You are not a good patriot!

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:22 | 6273714 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Perhaps an asset forfeiture is in order.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:44 | 6273830 Joe A
Joe A's picture

And I think a tax audit might be in order as well. That is the usual tactic of the government if they don't like you.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:29 | 6273750 chopd livr
chopd livr's picture

also happened to me. sold properties/ started renting- within 2 mo. fico dropped about 50 pts. same comment re: reason. bastiges.  i guess u gotta play the game if you're gona play the game.  if ur out any length of time, don't expect to get any loan easily- so they try to keep you in with "threats"

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:51 | 6273868 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

If you hold assests they will suck on your cock nice and slow.  You can get any debt you want, they just want you back in.

If you hold no assets (like, you fucking sunk your damned canoe while fishing with all your assets... dumbass) and are paying no debt, then yea, they'll assume deadbeat.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:08 | 6273644 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Ya mas!

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:17 | 6273646 Guentzburgh
Guentzburgh's picture

Grexit cannot be because that means Catastrophe on Germany , to a good degree courtesy of a collapsing  Deutche bank which will bring down Germany and every scumbag EU government that supported who re Merkel.

 

Base case :) is that EU governments will hurry to conclude an agreement with Greece.... 

Best Case : FK EURO, FK weak USA , FK EU trash, FK NATO garbage and ally with Russia.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:08 | 6273648 HenryHall
HenryHall's picture

My guess, the EU plan now is to stir up riots as ATMs go without cash in order to foment a color revolution. With hired snipers to shoot both protestors and policemen at random.

Mon, 07/06/2015 - 06:21 | 6275462 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Queue the pictures from the US of pickups backing into walls to steal ATMs.

Only the size of the pickup varies.....

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:08 | 6273650 mcbond
mcbond's picture

#Greece

One major Greek bank is near collapse

 

The IMF published a scathing analysis on Friday which practically stated that Greece can’t be saved from bankruptcy.

Real Live Ticker:

https://tersee.com/#!q=greece&t=text

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:10 | 6273656 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

And so Frau Merkel is off to Paris on Monday to meet with Monsieur Hollande.  She's not going to EU HQ in Brussels, but to see Hollande in Pah-REE.  Hmmm.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:17 | 6273685 Joe A
Joe A's picture

And wherever she goes and whatever she does with Hollande will be registered by the NSA. Always handy, just like these nude pictures of her when she was a teenager swimming at the lakeside in the DDR.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:21 | 6273709 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Nude pics of Angela?  Whew, nein danke!

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:49 | 6273858 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

age and political ambition do horrible things to a young woman.  Please consider a) Nancy (now) Pelosi and b) Hirraly Ridhim.

On second though, save your dinner and don't consider b)--her aidz would prolly strangle you with left-over clothes-lines.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:26 | 6273663 David Rockefeller
David Rockefeller's picture

Lovers of democracy should not be too quick to rejoice.  History shows that, in such situations, we the bankers almost always manage to snatch victory out of defeat.  Our options are endless, including:

  • A few assassinations (after all, we have a license to kill)
  • Bribery (after all, we have a license to print as much money as we want)
  • Color revolution
  • Military coup (following historical precedents in Greece and elsewhere)
  • Devastating economic warfare

 

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