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Risk Off: FX Carry Trades Tumble, Euro Opens Under 1.10; USDJPY Under 121

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With nearly 60% of the Greek refrendum vote counted, and the No's leading by a landslide 61%, it is clear that the Troika's gambit failed, unless as Goldman wrote and we first noted, it was the ECB's intention to force a Grexit all along, thus permitting the ECB to engage in more QE: QE which would in Goldman's estimation, push the EURUSD down 7 big figures and further toward parity, sending global stocks soaring in one last central bank-inspired hurrah.

For now, however, while the carry trades are in risk off mode, the drop is not nearly as dramatic, and the EURUSD is trading under 1.10...

 

... while the USDJPY opened under 122.

Should there be no official statement by the Eurozone fin mins or any support from the ECB, we anticipate the risk off mode will only accelerate overnight, especially if the PBOC fails to support Chinese markets tonight, which - with all due respect to Greece - is the far bigger catalyst to what happens in global stock markets tomorrow, because if the Chinese central banks has lost the market's confidence all bets are off.

 

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Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:21 | 6273159 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

And gold and silver sits. Buy the shit out of the real stuff.

I wont be selling for paper.

RIPS

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:26 | 6273181 remain calm
remain calm's picture

So someone riddle me this. Japan has the worst balance sheet of any nation, they make Greece look good. Yet its cuurency strenghtens. The only thing that makes sense to me is a total Market collapse. It is the only thing that can make sense of these markets.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:30 | 6273204 mtndds
mtndds's picture

I knew the markets will show very little reation to Greece.  The market is soooo rigged.  Tomorrow will be business as usual here in the States.  The market will reach all time highs tomorrow.    One cannot win either way.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:38 | 6273249 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

I can imagine a global emergency alert on all televisions and computers.

 

"Mortals for your safety you must give everything to us....Behold the Velvet glove comes off!, This is not a Silver fist"

 

Dying beasts are dangerous.

 

RIPS

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:41 | 6273262 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

ready for that $5 gold up day ?? Ready ?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:50 | 6273291 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

You meant to put a zero behind that five.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:21 | 6273415 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Paging Dr. SNB.

Paging Dr. SNB.

You're wanted in the Plunge Protection Room STAT

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:27 | 6273431 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"Debt contagion slams into the USA."

Absolutely a possibility.

Didn't take long for Puerto Rico to default on a "mere" 70 BILLION!!!

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:38 | 6273476 Mark Urbo
Mark Urbo's picture

If gold doesn't ramp up over night - its beyond rigged...

With PBOC and UR totally distracted, it should blow through $1200.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:20 | 6273699 Lore
Lore's picture

Considering the mountainous volume of structured confetti that has been printed lately, the real price should have blown through US$1200 a long time ago.  In this bizarre environment, there's no direct way of knowing what the real price should be: we have only anecdotes about Failures-To-Deliver, strange trading patterns, apparent disinterest on the part of regulators regarding extraordinary concentrations of paper contracts within individual institutions, extremely high premiums behind closed doors, Tungsten revelations, tunnels underneath roads, seizure of national treasure from "Rogue States," bullion stolen under cover of 911, and so on. It's like an ongoing sequel to Raiders of the Lost Ark...

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:34 | 6273781 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

Euro gaps down, big time ! Sweet...

http://www.investing.com/charts/currency-charts

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:54 | 6273303 Boomberg
Boomberg's picture

There is no market, so how can it collapse?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:49 | 6273525 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Maybe take a look at the Yen since 2012. It's down 40%

Japan still produces things and people still work. Greece produces nothing except olive oil. They should have never been in the euro.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:43 | 6273822 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

... Japan still produces things and people still work

Not as much as 15 years ago, though... Do you have any idea how much outsourcing did the Japanese companies over the last decade and a half ?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:27 | 6273188 DetectiveStern
DetectiveStern's picture

Citi and JPM with huge naked short positions about to get fucked.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:30 | 6273202 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

C and JPM are also the major shareholders of the paper gold GLD and paper silver SLV ETFs.  This is like owning the bonds and CDS.  Why would they do it?

To cause a financial meltdown so the NWO can be implemented.

The way we can skirt this offensive is to own physical bullion.  That way we won't be at the dictate of the technocratic bankers.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:32 | 6273214 DetectiveStern
DetectiveStern's picture

100% guaranteed the elites will use the next crash to bring in a global currency. Unfortunately for them the decentralised currency rabbit is out of the hat.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:03 | 6273346 SofaPapa
SofaPapa's picture

The trend for the past 45 years is clear and simple: centralization and consolidation.  Bigger, fewer, more connected businesses connected to an increasingly powerful central government, in Europe and in the US.

This is the goal line for them.  If they can get over to the global system, they score.

Are enough human beings still awake enough to provide defense against this leviathan?  The No vote in Greece is a hopeful sign.  Individual dignity is not entirely dead.

But this crucible is far from done.  The fighting has just begun, and the forces of mindless bureaucracy and the enslavement of human creativity still have tons and tons of power provided to them from the corporate model.

Who will humans choose to be?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:45 | 6273278 azusgm
azusgm's picture

Where is Blythe working these days?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:48 | 6273285 SandiaMan
SandiaMan's picture

Bitcoin

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:14 | 6273391 aka_ces
aka_ces's picture

against it

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:27 | 6273191 Soul Glow
Soul Glow's picture

If we listen to the guy who is the foremost Bilderberg researcher then your gold and silver are set to sky rocket in price.

Gold Is A Financial Thermonuclear Weapon -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hd6gQQmpv3A

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:32 | 6273217 Which is worse ...
Which is worse - bankers or terrorists's picture

Time to fire up the National Liberation Front (Greek Resistance in WW2) and place some assets in Brussels and Frankfurt. 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:39 | 6273252 Deathrips
Deathrips's picture

Should we trust either of these zios on this podcast?

 

 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:54 | 6273557 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Trust yourself. Is it better to hold paper assets or real assets

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:34 | 6273232 Bossman1967
Bossman1967's picture

No skyrocketing metals because of the paper bullshit is unlimited and thry have well figured out how to keep our physical cheap untill thry cant so dont part gold be under 1,000 and silver at 10 shortly but ill buy at 40,30,20 and 10 its not for sale I hope

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:31 | 6273208 knukles
knukles's picture

Dontchall forget that this is merely a single (massive in and of itself, a thrust into the very heart of the EU and NWO) step in the total game.
There's still Greek bank liquidity to consider, loan repayment terms or walks away, China the AIIB and Russia, gas pipelines and port berthing arrangements amongst a few items to consider.
On the other side, sure the EU will want to punish Greece, but a what cost with defaults, breaking banks and collateral calls on derivatives, etc., let alone bank capital and failures.
Hello ECBQE4evah

In short:

Well payed, Gentlemen.

Don't take your eyes off the ball of independence from the EU, access to the EU markets and alternative income and political levers such as NATO basing, etc.

This is a BIG DAY.
Makes my heat all warm a cuddly, July 5, on the irony of it all, the history!

See, some of the folks isn't so dumb after all, no?

And yes, there is a God striking at the very heart of evil, at the NWO and evil men's desires to defeat Natural Law.

Almost wants me to vote for Liz Warren ....   er .....

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 18:47 | 6274101 chisler
chisler's picture

It's all about timing, as in, time is money. Nothing is cast in stone.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:22 | 6273161 samjam7
samjam7's picture

I see more SNB intervention tonight...gotta keep that Euro strong! 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:33 | 6273228 Glasnost
Glasnost's picture

Mind the gaps...

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:53 | 6273544 FuzzyDunlop21
FuzzyDunlop21's picture

Im expecting another rip-your-face-off rally in EurJpy

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:23 | 6273164 Racer
Racer's picture

Can't have the "markets" feel any pain can they, only the poor and the sick and pensioners.....

 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:34 | 6273171 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Smells like a GS bait and switch. 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:25 | 6273175 Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

"All bets are off " that's for sure....

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:54 | 6273281 Babushka
Babushka's picture

If all bets are off then there can't be any money can it?

 

https://youtu.be/N9_tl_b-bFs

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:25 | 6273180 Bill of Rights
Bill of Rights's picture

Gold sits there saying who me?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:26 | 6273183 Salzburg1756
Salzburg1756's picture

So they know what they're doing.

That's rich, that's really rich.

They are so far up shit's creek...

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:26 | 6273185 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

 it is clear that the Troika's gambit failed, 

Actually, it was Mutti kicking Greece, out.  Hell of a PR victory for Tsipras, but Greece is still raggedy assed broke, and the euphoria will fade fast.

German banks are open for business as usual.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:28 | 6273192 KnuckleDragger-X
KnuckleDragger-X's picture

I expect the markets to demonstrate all the symptoms of classic schizophrenia for awhile and who knows what the algo's will do. I'm extremely thankful that I got completely out, otherwise I'd have to dig out my nailgun.....

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:29 | 6273198 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

Life's more important than Carry Trades.

Count Faster and gimme the FINAL FINAL BALLOT RESULT.

Some old Greek professor in the USSofA is more than perturbed about Golden Dawn supporters voting with the government, calling them Nazi Party.

Me thinks the Troika doth protest tooooooooooooooooooooooo much!

Think UKRAINE.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:30 | 6273207 Xploregon
Xploregon's picture

Don't you think it will be EURO DOWN tomorrow, U.S. DOLLAR UP thus PM's down tomorrow?

Doesn't this mean BTFD tomorrow?

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:32 | 6273212 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

SEC is watching gay midget porn while DHS, and NSA forecast weather reporting July 4th terrorist attacks. DOJ is jerking off on movie theater and OIP

http://www.justice.gov/justice-blogs

 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:33 | 6273222 Rathmullan
Rathmullan's picture

By market open tomorrow morning this will be painted as positive for stocks. Meanwhile, the ny fed and the primary stealers have a lot of index futures to buy.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:58 | 6273323 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

You could get a "Greek Contagion" because of this.

The dollar might be down against the Yen because when you factor in State and Local Governments the USA "has a multitude of Greece's."

So "buy yen/sell dollar" on fear of more "Detroiting" henceforth.

Hard not to see European Equities opening limit down however. "Somebody has to pay for the default" and obviously the IMF was sticking it to the ECB and Draghi when it said "Greece has no ability to repay."

Those writedowns will have to be done in EURO'S now.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:02 | 6273340 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

This looks like a disaster to me.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:38 | 6273250 luckylogger
luckylogger's picture

Bets are the euro will be over 1.12 by tommorrows close!

Forein investors are 70% hedged, supposedly.

They will be getting out and covering their hedges.

Will be a tough trade though!

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:53 | 6273297 Bush Baby
Bush Baby's picture

Best bet as usual is do the complete opposite of anything that remotely makes sense.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:41 | 6273264 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

if i owe the eu one million euros, its my problem. however, if the eu lent me one billion euros, it's now their problem

now, just imagine that greece once owed the troika 250 billion euros and how it feels to have them [eu]cannibalized by their own 'pound-of-rotten-flesh'! 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:45 | 6273266 MASTER OF UNIVERSE
MASTER OF UNIVERSE's picture

Greenspan telegraphed the outcome of Grexit back in February and everyone knew Greece was being forced to exit by the status quo gangsterbanksters when they all started to fall in line with talking points. Greenspan would not have stated an exit was the foregone ultimate conclusion if he thought there was any possibility of his being wrong on that account. Don't forget that Greenspan is a failed Economist and cannot afford to be wrong on anything since 2008. Moreover, industry would not have allowed him to open his pie hole and speak up on the Grexit possibility in February if he was incorrect in that assumption.

 

Logically, the entire Western World banking sector is now completely defunct, and will topple like dominos within days due to the fact that Ponzi schemes cannot be re-inflated. If one could re-inflate Ponzi schemes we all know Bernie Maddoff would have found a way rather than going to jail.

 

NOTE: It's time to knock on all the front doors of all the Investment Bankers in the entire World and ask for a sandwich, and a cup of coffee, Z/Hers. Don't forget to smile, and be polite. Remember your upbringing, and manners, eh, we are not animals, contrary to popular belief.

 

;|

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:42 | 6273269 besnook
besnook's picture

the only way that makes sense is if china/russia come to greece's rescue providing an opportunity for a eurasian connection, merkel's dildo.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:13 | 6273388 Gyges
Gyges's picture

I hear Uncle Sam has a thing for Greece...

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:44 | 6273274 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Federal Reserve Dealers will use stockholders money without consent. That's how despotism they hide. Watch them get assininated in broad daylight. 

It's going to be a whatever moment when they expire. George Soros will loose some foot soldiers. 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:44 | 6273275 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

However things shake out going forward, you can bet that some prominent bankster maggots will say this is exactly what they expected (and wanted) to happen to appear that they actually know what the fvck is going on and are on top of matters.

FUBAR.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:46 | 6273280 besnook
besnook's picture

the biggest danger in all this are banksters thinking their chosen status is in danger and taking it out on the goy. a false flag is almost certain to deflect blame for the collapse.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:52 | 6273295 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

The blame is already known. It's the US media job to redirect. Then the information bomb will be dropped. 

Sit back and enjoy. 

 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:04 | 6273347 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

They are an an easy target...

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:50 | 6273288 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

But a stronger USD is clearly bullish for US companies with 50% of their profits overseas. /s

 

How did the market (coughcasinocough) break?

First slowly....then all at once.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:54 | 6273302 Herdee
Herdee's picture

What about the crooks that still want to hand over tens of billions to kick the can down the road?Surely the Germans & the IMF and the rest of the corporate gangsters deserve the endless right of deny and delay forever and ever,Amen.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:56 | 6273312 cdude
cdude's picture

It's important to remember that this referendum is not a vote on whether or not to exit the EU but simply accept or reject to latest "bailout" proposal. I'm sure the misanthropes, who hold high positions in the EU, have more tricks up their sleeves.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 15:57 | 6273316 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Globalisation has hit a brick road. 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:00 | 6273333 Gyges
Gyges's picture

Just a few more hours and Athena's spear will strike.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:15 | 6273393 q99x2
q99x2's picture

YeeeeeeHaaaaaa Bitcoin Last Price $271.56

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:17 | 6273403 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Tsipras and Varoufakis should go the the next meeting with the Troika with a full compliment of Greek olives (branches would be a nice touch), so souvlaki, gyros, ouzo and for dessert, a Greek tradition, aks all the EU finance ministers to bend over and take one for the team.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 16:35 | 6273466 gwar5
gwar5's picture

EU wanted some socialism and they got it. Haircut for everybody holding EUROs and shifts the cost of the PIIGS back to core EU. 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:02 | 6273614 Itch
Itch's picture

God help the Chinese...you know why there is so much smog in China? Because the government blows so much smoke up their holes. 

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:09 | 6273653 Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

We predicted parity long before Goldman

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:16 | 6273678 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

eurusd will probably close green tomorrow ... the fucking cunts will be out in full force tomorrow.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:21 | 6273710 Chuck Knoblauch
Chuck Knoblauch's picture

A well diversified portfolio will take the hit.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:22 | 6273711 ramgold2206
ramgold2206's picture

100..99...98...97...96

whats that.. thats is the deflation of your €€ guys

 

and that ticker just hit a higher gear..

 

www.teamramgold.com

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:31 | 6273765 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Take your bitcoin profits and convert them to gold tomorrow.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 18:09 | 6273934 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Au up a paltry $4 now.  This smells of another CB drubbing in the morning.  Dow futures down a paltry 1% - sure to be up 300 points tomorrw at 4pm edt.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 21:25 | 6274642 razorthin
razorthin's picture

aaaaand we're down to + $1.00

Fuck off.

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 17:40 | 6273806 straightershooter
straightershooter's picture

Simple. Japan does not owe foreigh creditors one cent. Almost all Japan bond issued are bought by domestic Japanese/institutions. In fact, Japan is still a creditor ( heck, have more than 1 trillion us treasury)

Since all Japanese bond are issued in yen, the government, as the last resort, can print to pay up. No real default risk.

Greek is an exact opposite, and that's why, greek wants to default...to defraud foreign creditors ( too bad, IMF and other Euro governments have means to retaliate) .....By doing so, greek government will collapse in no time ( simple: no fund to pay salaries, pensions, whatever....it could only pay what it collects domestically from greek via tax/fee, which....good luck)

Sun, 07/05/2015 - 19:04 | 6274176 asfffasfff
asfffasfff's picture

i wonder if russia will help them

 

oxi or not they need money

if it would be for me, the greed debt is illegal

all loans are illegal and therefore greece dont have to pay them back anyway

 

i know greece can create its own economy

 

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